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Replaying 1929 "Standup Economics" This economy is a what? |
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Beware The Second Half of April If I could pick any one day to be National Wear Bulletproof Vest Day, it would likely be somewhere here in mid-to-late April. Several readers have sent in notes that point in particular to the period around April 19 as one when some or recent history's most repugnant events have occurred.
For example, on this date in 1993 it was the Branch Dividian Waco siege that killed 76 people - the government's way of serving a search warrant when proceeded by a 51-day standoff.
In 1995 it was the Oklahoma City bombing - and there continues to be controversy about that event - was it somehow tied to terrorism or back to a rogue faction of government?
Other Big/release events seem like they are somehow drawn to the mid April to 2/3r'd of the way through the month.
True, such collections might be written about any other collection of dates, but this one is making the rounds on the new right now. I'd be eyes wide open about everything this weekend if I were going out and about. That'd make me a little more dodge-headed at least through Monday. Extra care with power tools in the shop, too I suppose, but more likely extra care about guns/shooting and such.
George's Rally Last week the mood of investors was sour - along the lines of "We're all freakin' doomed!" but after Friday's romp by the markets, perhaps even that one-man-medical-recycling station known as the Mogambo Guru will be forced to admit that a mindless blow-off top is shaping up for the markets. If not now, then as we go into summer. Almost 524 points to the up side last week.
The Friday rally was fueled by Google and Citigroup leading the way. A financial and a tech stock? Wait, aren't they supposed to be laggards here?
And speaking of trends: Dow Theory says the transport index is a good proxy for what's to come. If so, then the market has another 20% to run given how the Transportation Index has been showing of late. Could that imply just north of 15,400? Which would be a new all-time high? Yeah, could be - manic blow off tops are any ting but predictable. Which is why I don't offer financial advice - I just write about it as an amazed/befuddled/ astonished observer with no ax to grind... --- Then we have to consider that one of the reasons for Citi's rally was the report that they will be trimming 9,000 jobs. I wonder how much the stock would have popped if they had trimmed twice that?
I ask that only half-joking. If Citi could find a buyer for its $64 billion a year in revenue streams at any kind of a premium they could lay off everyone. The stock currently sports a book value of $22.74 a share on a MRQ basis (most recent quarter). Do I belie a price to book bias? --- Electronic Arts has extended its offer for Take-Two. Say, you don't think this will turn into a subplot on the next iteration of Grand Theft Auto, do you? (I'm one of those people who thought one of the best features of GTA was the radio station played in the car - you oughta listen to it closely...) --- In my personal trading tactics for the coming week, in the commodities markets, I may roll out of silver, wheat, and coffee options that I'm holding for July. Reason? If you plot out the time premium in an option, it decays ever-faster once you get inside the 50-day mark, and so in order to maintain my positions (based on my belief that inflation is coming I want to have a lot of time on my side.
I still believe that wheat will continue to increase, that silver will be buoyed by the crazy printing of paper assets, and coffee will benefit from the declining dollar. It's just that these forces might work out slower than I expect, so rolling forward into longer term expirations makes sense in here. I almost did it on Wednesday with the idea of re-entering in a week or two... --- The big inflation news is that oil futures hit $117 a barrel - and don't forget, that $117 is based on an oil barrel which is 42 gallons - not the 55-gallons used in the US for industrial chemicals and finished distillate product. Coincidence?: Iraqi forces have a big operation going against Basra Iraq this weekend.
And talk about holding up a sign that says "Bomb Here!" to the West- the president of Iran says that crude oil is too cheap at $115 a barrel. Pappy had a great saying "Your mouth will generally get you into more trouble than it will get you out of..." Apparently, Iran's president's pappy skipped that particular "Father's lessons to sons..."
As Cliff and I discussed with Jeff Rense Friday night on the Rense radio program, it's looking more and more like the Iran War (that goes badly/wrong and leaves a mess for generations) will not come later than we first thought - perhaps not until August-September. That, in turn (when it goes badly) would argue for an October 7th something impacting markets which would lead to the massive declines to follow. Oil embargo, dollar collapse, something like that yet undefined.
I think Jeff was a little surprised at Cliff's explanation that the BIG/HUGE 'release period' which begins this fall will last until as late as July of 2010 Which would make it a very long, very ugly period of history indeed. On the other hand, we have the spring and early summer to all get our houses in order so we can help people who are not as 'future-directed' get ready for such events. --- The two summary points we offered as the close of the show near repeating: Grow something - even if it's just a few potted plants even a few tomato plants in 5-gallon containers on the deck work event for coop (apartment) dwellers and can provide good 'trading stock'. And, keep asking yourself "How will I make ends meet for everyday needs if the whole current Western paradigm of 'paper assets' falls apart as the 'glue' represented by the socioeconomic contract collapses?
Too Big To Fail! Of course, now that the Fed is consolidating its hold on the money system of the USA, once controlled by Congress, but not in any meaningful way lately, we notice that the Bank of England and the British government are also planning to rig their financial markets by 'shoring up the debt market."
"George, it's for everyone's own good!" I can hear it now. Well, if was, wouldn't we have had a paper currency that had been successful at such a regimen in the past? Recall the USA is on its fourth currency now. If we weren't, the Continental would still be in circ, right?
No, there's nothing specifically wrong with rigging the markets, it just adds a new layer of chance to getting a fair shake on any investment - or given our reliance on Middle East money to bail out troubled banks and such, perhaps we should be looking for a fair sheik...so to speak.
Not to go 'broken record' on you but gasoline prices are going higher for two reasons: suppliers want more value - and the dollar has continued its decline, the late week bounce being hardly a blip in the larger trend.
Strikes: 1, 2, .... Speaking of Jeff (who's a great Mario Lanza fan, by the way) he's got a very interesting story on his site which wonders: "AA strike to lead to a crippling National Strike?"
It's interesting because there's already been a significant increase in labor action/ strike talk directed toward late spring '08.
GM is looking at a Chevy Malibu plant strike as a possibility, and of course you know West Coast Longshoremen are planning an anti-war stoppage on May 1st.
Pope Control Security police guarding the pontiff have bagged a pesky beaver in the East River. I thought beaver hunting was an evening activity, but not in NYC...
Hitting the Bottles Canada has banned polycarbonate infant bottles because of a chemical ingredient. Chemical BPA is suspect. And you thought hitting the bottle referred to something else?
Around The Ranch: Our Own Tornado We're not sure if it was a tornado, but a good chunk of Friday was spent taking a visual inventory of the damage to the lower part of our property by the wild winds through the area early Friday morning.
A couple of dozen trees came down - which means a ton of work for me and the chain saw to get things back cleaned up again. Just to give you a sense of the damage, here's a 4 foot diameter tree down on the west property line and a 70' high pine uprooted by the winds...the root ball here is about 12-feet across:
Here's a 15" diameter limb that was ripped off and deposited some distance from the 'donor' tree:
People in the Dallas/Fort Worth area are also cleaning up this weekend. The trees mainly aren't causing any problems, per se, but they make the property look a mess. I may put an ad on Craig's List for free firewood if anyone wants to come by and cut it - I'll help haul it out with the tractor. Tons of wood...and if an oak tree is worth $100 and a long pine $200, we probably lost about $4,000 worth of trees in this.
So that was the freight-train sounding noise in the middle of the night that took out the power...
Market Tactics: Phase Shifted BehaviorI've been pondering the investment performance of a colleague the last week or two, and I've come up with an interesting - and perhaps useful - new way to look at investment decisions. Part of it comes from reading "Secrets of the Unified Field: The Philadelphia Experiment, the Nazi Bell, and the Discarded Theory." Not to worry, the report this week won't be getting into the woo-woo area of borderland science. But, the book does get me to thinking again about something most people give very little (if any) head space to; the concept of the phase relationship between their individual behaviors and overall group/societal level behaviors, and in particular that social oddity called "The Market". In short, a new way to look at your trading track record and one that I haven't seen discussed in any of the literature. I'll show you how learning to think of your trading in electrical engineering terms used in AC distribution systems may be a very good thing, indeed.
\(The discussion of a potential fifth wave failure is in the ChartPack)
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One follow up note: In the discussion of AC power systems (it really relates to trading styles, honest!) a power company electrical engineer says most companies charge based on a power factor of 1.0. Most exceptions are on the industrial side.
Tell Your Friends About This Site! If you know anyone who is interested in preserving the Constitution, fighting usury from banksters, and shaking off consumer hypnosis, tell them about this site. Click here to send 'em an invite...
Mr. Cheap's Tricks There are lots of ways to save money on food, shelter, transportation, and such. It just takes a little reading and one source of good ideas is our handy ebook "How to Live on $10,000 a year or less. Still just $10. ---- Last week's report is here. If for back issues of this site, click here. (Goes back to 1997!) ---- I promised Elaine that I would unload some of my equipment, so if you're looking for ham gear, especially the older tube-type (EMP resistant) type, send me a note and I will send out the list of what I'm selling off when I get it together. Click here to Put Me On Ham Gear List
Friday April 18, 2009 Them Winds - Texas Style The headline doesn't look like much, if viewed from a thousand miles off, but when the Dallas Morning News headlines "Storms bring hail, outages, to Dallas-Fort Worth" they weren't just-a-kidding.
This morning's report is being brought to you courtesy of the diesel genset here at the ranch because a large tree fell on the feeder lines to our road in the 50-60 mile an house winds here - and the hail up in Big D was bigger than 'silver dollar sized' according to the live coverage we watched on WFAA last night. --- A couple of learning lessons for me in all this. The first is that I need to shorten the maintenance check time on the diesel genset start battery - it managed to be too flat to kick over the generator. Discovering that I could not get enough 'snap' in my manual pulls to start the ice cold genset, that meant moving the car into position along with the jumper cables. So, a big underline for that one on the to-do list.
Second discovery: The coffeemaker doesn't run without power, and I have been too lazy to lug Mr. Coffee over here - so the morning's writing may be less alert than usual - no doubt due to the shortage of liquid brain accelerant. --- The weather continues to be colder than normal in the nation's mid section and one square state reader offers a local farmer benchmark: For each day past April 21st that spring crops don't go into the ground, yields will be dropping about one percent. --- I have to say I envy the people up in Fon du Lac Wisconsin. "Tornado season fast approaching" headlines the FdL Reporter this morning. Yeah - welcome to the season. The US tornado tally continues to run well in advance of the past several years. --- Typhoon approaching China has 56 fishermen missing. All part of the linguistic meme "Them Winds" which we're slogging through this spring. Them winds indeed.
Terra Shakes Several readers have sent in notes overnight about the earthquake in the Bellmont Ill9inoiss area overnight. It came in at 5.4 on the Richter scale, and was felt as far off as Chicago, according to CBS in the windy city.. Typical of our reports from the field:
Oh, here's another one of those delightful "ironies to ponder" delivered by the Universe: This is the anniversary of the 1906 San Francisco earthquake. If you're thinking "Gee, what are the odds?" The correct answer is 100% today on Rock Three.
A curious linguistic reference: Folks in Chicago call the quake area "downstate" I wonder if people in Chicago know up from down?
Media In Decline I've been mentioning to you for some time that the mainstream media companies which operate newspapers and mainstream television are running into fierce headwinds from competition based on the internet and niche news operations that meet specialized needs - take all those RSS feeds, just as a for-instance.
We can not study the report that the "New York Times Company Posts a Loss " of $335,000 for the quarter. The large issue is now what happened to last quarter, but where will things go from here? --- On the other side of the shift, please notes that http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080417/earns_google.html?.v=10and the analysts are all over the place trying to say "See, I told youi..."
Truth Leak Now the Government Accountability Office says the US lacks a plan to operate in Pakistani tribal areas. Not that that's a revelation - just confirmation that we can't fight all wars, all places, without more people and money. Elsewhere, the Washington Post reports that "Combat Street may cost the US up to $6-billion over time. More people, more money, like I said...
Martial Who? Seem posse comitatus is back thanks to q quietly passed bit of legislation that got virtually no headline coverage. Don't wake up the MSM - no confirmation from other sources yet but it's a step in the right direction... --- I was talking to a friend in Chicago yesterday...and he put forth what is lately a familiar complaint: "I look at the presidential contest and I say to myself where's the choice? Why can't we take our country back? Money, power, the usual stuff...but every once in a while the good guys win a round or two in support of the Constitution.
Rigged Voting in Russia First it was Florida and Ohio...and now there are charges that the elections recently in Russia were rigged. So when what's her name gets elected, don't say I didn't warn you..
Smaller Government This email out of Oregon is interesting:
Any chance we can get ALL POLITICIANS to learn this trick? I can't think of any reason why the electorate shouldn't know all the details about which side their bread is buttered on, so to speak...but then I'm just a salt-of-the-earth plebe search for hope in the last days of Rome...
Markets A quick preview shows that the markets are set for a higher open this morning - at least at the moment - in spite of Citi dropping $5.1 billion of loss to the bottom line due to write-downs. An AP story says "Executives see credit and housing as big threats" and with stories like "Dallas, Fort Worth home foreclosures up 39%, I suppose that's not particularly surprising.
Food Riots We continue to get tracking emails on the Google News search for food riot.
And this morning it was up to 2,479...
--- snip and save section ---
Coping: Multitasking Waste This morning's snip and save will be gloriously short. The headline is that "Multitasking Worse on IQ than Pot" and comes originally from an IEEE Potentials paper.
You are welcome to read the paper, but the zinger in is it that the "...American worker wastes 2.1 hours per day due to multitasking."
Elaine often asks me "Why can't you multitask better?" So who says it's better? Certainly not the I triple E paper...I'll just keep my serial-laser approach to things, thanks. --- Elaine can't walk from one end of the house to the other without being distracted by 20 items of this or that along the way. I, on the other hand, can take a totally focused single task from one end of the house to the other, even if even if doing so requires walking over a couch that's on fire or across a carpet littered with broken glass to get there...
Is It Your Money? Months back I told you how banks were limiting the amount of cash people could get out of their accounts - and while it varies by bank, it's not that much - generally in the $2,000 to $2,500 range say my sources in the banking industry.
And worse, if you even ask how much you can get that triggers something called an SAR - suspicious activity report, which goes up the bankstering food chain until it lands in a federal office somewhere where it's reviewed. Everyone is suspect in the New Amerika.
It's a weird hybrid of legal concepts: Everyone nowadays is potentially guilty until the politikal apparatchik says they're good, safe, party members..
"What are you going to do with that much cash, Citizen?" "Any damn thing I want..." "Say, you've got an attitude there -- Do you have any identification on you?" and the list goes on....
OK, that's the set-up - now to this email:
Well, let me first say that I don't play options any more because it's a crooked game. Not that the individual players are bad guys, or the brokerage firms - they're OK. What's crooked is the government's intervention in the markets which means that even if you make a good bet, government intervention can rob you blind.
Say you had shorted Bear Stearns. The company was headed for the great financial dumpster. In comes the shotgun marriage and poof - a brilliant short is saved from going to zero.
The Fed and a bunch of their power-grabbing buddies say "Oh, look how we saved an outfit that's too big to fail!" But, until the Fed publishes their listed of the anointed who will be bailed out, I won't play stock options because the game is rigged and pappy didn't raise no fool.
OK, if I had money I was willing to waste? I might consider just a few at the money calls for index options for the July cycle. But, I wouldn't do that with anything but money that would otherwise be invested in something useful.
But that's a matter of context, too. Like my old live aboard sailor's bumper sticker says: "I spent all my money on sailboats, booze and women: The rest, I wasted."
--- Send snip and save notes to george@ure.net - anything that helps youi understand life, get along better, save money, or ease the pain discomfort of hemer....oh, well, you got the idea. --- end snip and save section ---
Thursday April 17, 2008 Screaming Oil, Crying Dollars Although there was a jam-up of the dollar early this morning, the bigger question floating around today is "Where will oil stop in its upward climb?" Which will be closely followed by "Is there some point of no return for the dollar beyond which jam-ups will fail?
To the headlines: " Oil futures jump to record over $115 on supply concerns" says an AP report. I know, I know, you're thinking: "George all this Peak Oil stuff is made up - the world is swimming in oil and it's just the Big Oil companies trying to shove it to us consumers...." Except, that's not quite right.
Even if you don't follow the work of oil industry financier Matthew ("Twilight in the Desert") Simmons, you should look at his PowerPoint's which are very clear about what's going on in the Oil Patch. The latest paper on his site, posted March 7th, asks (on page 2), what are |
