Replaying 1929: Business, Financial, and earth change news

---

Reader Note: Updated Daily!   If you don't see this page updated, hit your "Refresh" button (F5 in MSIE) 
This page is also mirrored here and may be available at http://www2.urbansurvival.com/week.htm   unblocked in some corp/gov offices.  Please bookmark both for use in event of communications disruptions.

 

Reader Advisory: Due to pressing client projects (I do real work besides writing this site), there won't be a free update on Saturday.  However, the Peoplenomics report this weekend will cover two topics: On a practical level, we'll go over 'grab-and-go bags' and what to have in them, and on a more etheric level, in a second section we'll look at the economic impact of possible future contact with civilizations not-of-earth in a section called "Alienomics". Why we wouldn't be shorting Boeing just yet...

 

Our Very Durable Delusions

Latest from the Census Bureau:

"New Orders New orders for manufactured durable goods in June increased $1.6 billion or 0.8 percent to $215.4 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This was the second consecutive monthly increase and followed a 0.1 percent May increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 2.0 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 0.1 percent.

Shipments Shipments of manufactured durable goods in June, up two of the last three months, increased $1.1 billion or 0.5 percent to $212.2 billion. This followed a 1.2 percent May decrease.

Unfilled Orders Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in June, up twenty-eight of the last twenty-nine months, increased $7.2 billion or 0.9 percent to $817.6 billion. This was at the highest level since the series was first stated on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 0.9 percent May increase.

Inventories

Inventories of manufactured durable goods in June, up eleven of the last twelve months, increased $1.8 billion or 0.5 percent to $332.2 billion. This was also at the highest level since the series was first stated on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 0.5 percent May increase.

Capital Goods Industries

Nondefense

Nondefense new orders for capital goods in June decreased $2.3 billion or 3.2 percent to $71.4 billion.

Defense

Defense new orders for capital goods in June increased $1.5 billion or 15.8 percent to $11.3 billion. "

OK, let's do a little math here...because the MSM isn't going to point this out so I will:

 

Defense spending was up $1.5 Billion  Durable Goods overall was up $1.6  Billion.  Back out spending on the Bush Wars and Durable goods would be what?  Flat!  Now, get out there and wage something...without the wars, the economy would truly suck.  That tees up our next story...

 

Markets: A Little Reality Intrudes

The report that the National Bank of Australia will write off 90% of its US conduit loans might cause a few folks on Wall Street to hit the Tums (or Jack) a bit earlier than usual today.  Of course, if you've been following this site for very long, you probably have already figured that the Home Loan Bubble is only the first to let go, and that there's likely an equally big bubble left to pop with collateralized debt obligations (bundled credit cards and such) start letting go, although it will be a quieter mess because it's less publicly reported.

 

But, I figure that's still to come this fall when the Mother Of All Crashes (MOAC) looks possible in October, which I figure will be timed to coincide with some kind of next (and orders of magnitude more terrible) next "terror" event.

 

But we don't need to wait for fall to see terror right up close and personal.  Nope:  RealtyTrac reports that foreclosures are up an amazing 121% compared with the same period a year ago.  Here's their press release:

"IRVINE, Calif., July 25 /PRNewswire/ -- RealtyTrac(R) ( http://www.realtytrac.com ), the leading online marketplace for foreclosure properties, today released its Q2 2008 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report(TM), which shows foreclosure filings were reported on 739,714 U.S. properties during the second quarter, a nearly 14 percent increase from the previous quarter and a 121 percent increase from the second quarter of 2007. The report also shows that one in every 171 U.S. households received a foreclosure filing during the quarter.

RealtyTrac publishes the largest and most comprehensive national database of foreclosure and bank-owned properties, with over 1.5 million properties from over 2,200 counties across the country, and is the foreclosure data provider to MSN Real Estate, Yahoo! Real Estate and The Wall Street Journal's Real Estate Journal.

"Although much of the fallout from foreclosures is being driven by rampant activity in a few states, such as Nevada, California, Florida, Ohio, Arizona and Michigan, most areas of the country are seeing at least some increase in foreclosure activity," said James J. Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac. "Forty-eight of 50 states and 95 out of the nation's 100 largest metro areas experienced year-over-year increases in foreclosure activity in the second quarter.

"Bank repossessions, or REOs, accounted for 30 percent of total foreclosure activity in the second quarter, up from 24 percent of the total in the first quarter," Saccacio continued. "This shift in the distribution of activity indicates that there is a progression toward purging the problem loans out of the system -- at which point the housing market can regain some sense of normalcy. Of course if another surge in defaults occurs, which could well happen later this year, it would refill the foreclosure pipeline and prolong the recovery."

Nevada, California, Arizona post top state foreclosure rates

One in every 43 Nevada households received a foreclosure filing during the second quarter, the highest foreclosure rate among the states and nearly four times the national average. Foreclosure filings were reported on 24,657 Nevada properties during the quarter, up 26 percent from the previous quarter and up 147 percent from the first quarter of 2007.

Foreclosure filings were reported on 202,599 California properties during the second quarter, the highest total among the states and a rate of one in every 65 households -- the nation's second highest state foreclosure rate. Foreclosure activity in California increased 19 percent from the previous quarter and was nearly three times the level reported in the second quarter of 2007.

With one in every 70 households receiving a foreclosure filing, Arizona posted the nation's third highest state foreclosure rate in the second quarter. Foreclosure filings were reported on 37,230 Arizona properties during the quarter, up nearly 36 percent from the previous quarter and close to four times the number reported in the second quarter of 2007.

Florida documented the nation's fourth highest state foreclosure rate in the second quarter, with one in every 78 households receiving a foreclosure filing during the quarter - more than twice the national average. Foreclosure filings were reported on 109,433 Florida properties during the quarter, the second highest total of any state and an increase of nearly 25 percent from the previous quarter.

Despite a nearly 15 percent quarterly decrease in foreclosure activity in the second quarter, Colorado posted the nation's fifth highest state foreclosure rate - one in every 129 Colorado households received a foreclosure filing during the quarter. Second quarter foreclosure activity in Colorado was still up more than 50 percent from the second quarter of 2007.

Foreclosure filings were reported on 37,689 Ohio properties in the second quarter, the third highest total among the states and a rate of one in every 134 households -- the nation's sixth highest state foreclosure rate. Second quarter foreclosure activity in Ohio was up nearly 21 percent from the previous quarter and nearly 27 percent from the second quarter of 2007.

With foreclosure filings reported on 32,868 properties during the second quarter, Michigan notched the fifth highest total among the states. One in every 137 Michigan households received a foreclosure filing during the quarter, the nation's seventh highest state foreclosure rate.

Other states with foreclosure rates among the top 10 were Georgia, Massachusetts and Illinois.

Top 20 metro areas include Las Vegas, Phoenix, Miami, San Diego and Detroit

The Q2 2008 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report also ranks the nation's 100 largest metropolitan areas by foreclosure rate. California and Florida metro areas accounted for 16 of the top 20 metro foreclosure rates, with the California cities of Stockton and Riverside-San Bernardino taking the No. 1 and No. 2 spots.

One in every 25 Stockton households received a foreclosure filing during the quarter -- nearly seven times the national average -- and one in every 32 Riverside-San Bernardino households received a foreclosure filing during the quarter -- more than five times the national average. Other California metro areas in the top 20 were Bakersfield at No. 4, Sacramento at No. 5, Oakland at No. 8, Fresno at No. 9, San Diego at No. 11, Orange at No. 15, Ventura at No. 16 and Los Angeles at No. 19.

Las Vegas documented the third highest metro foreclosure rate, with one in every 35 households receiving a foreclosure filing during the quarter. Foreclosure filings were reported on 21,742 Las Vegas metro properties during the quarter, up more than 25 percent from the previous quarter and up nearly 144 percent from the second quarter of 2007.

The highest ranked Florida metro area was Fort Lauderdale, which ranked No. 6 with one in every 51 households receiving a foreclosure filing during the quarter. Other Florida metro areas in the top 20 were Miami at No. 10, Orlando at No. 13, Sarasota-Bradenton-Venice at No. 14, Tampa-St. Petersburg- Clearwater at No. 17 and Palm Beach at No. 18.

One in every 51 households in the Phoenix metro area received a foreclosure filing during the quarter, ranking No. 7; one in every 66 households in the Detroit metro area received a foreclosure filing during the quarter, ranking No. 12; and one in every 91 households in the Atlanta metro area received a foreclosure filing during the quarter, ranking No. 20.

Housing starts is due out at 10.  I hope both of them got started...

 

That'll Fix It

We can't help but notice that a newspaper in Iran has been banned over its economic reporting.  Since the SEC's imposition of martial law with (17) bank stocks, we figure it will only be a matter of time until reporting anything but happy-talk about US markets will be in the works, such is the nature of controlled markets.  Pointing out the emperor's clothing in any country is not acceptable of late.

---

Several readers have pointed out that the SEC rules on naked short selling have been on the books since the 1930's (T+3 rule) or more recently regulation SHO, and more than a few are asking "Why just these stocks?"  TA possible answer is this has more to do with the size of campaign checks from fat-cat hedge funds and less to do with the even-handed administration of law, but I can only guess.

 

Nevertheless,. we continue to hear stories about inter-market arb'ing where a commodity (say silver?) might be bought or sold on the COMEX with and offsetting trade made in a stock (or more likely ETF).  If there's an area for any new super-agency/ "Uber Regulator" to look for abuse, this might be one...

 

Close Call

A Qantas flight dropped 20-thousand feet after a cargo door failed after take-off from Hong Kong.  Reports sound as though crew handled it textbook -- well done.

 

Bus Fare

A lot of rural schools around the country are considering four-day school weeks to make up for the high cost of gas - which is pushing up school bus costs.  In some states there could be issues because of laws which require so many "school-days".  Also puts a crunch on school bus drivers who often have to work several jobs to make ends meet - the change of hours could hurt.  But, with gas prices up, what's a rural district to do?  Shorter school year anyone?  Rural home schooling programs, perhaps?

 

Pollution Headlines

The Universe sometimes presents symmetry if you go looking for it.  Take for example, the headline that "Oil spill closes 80 miles of the Mississippi River" from New Orleans to the Gulf after more than 400,000 gallons of fuel oil leaked from a Liberian flagged oil tanker.  Think 'restrictions on travel' here.

 

On the other hand, "California adopts stiff pollution rules for ships" to the chagrin of the shipping industry.

---

Although there will almost certainly be fines and legal action involved, we note the cost of the fuel oil spill is over a million dollars at the wholesale level.  So, seems to me that industry has an economic incentive right there to be careful...that's a fair chunk of change to see flushed out into the Gulf.

---

Speaking of which... we get to the news about the health of the Gulf of Mexico itself.  A report out today says the "dead zone' there due to pollution and such, could hit a record of more than 8,800 square miles - a big chunk of water.

 

Here's An Idea!

Say...with word that a senate committee heard appeals yesterday for a federal task force to combat polygamist sects, I have an idea!  Let's make sure that  Senator John Edwards is on the panel...yeah, dat's dah ticket..

 

Them Winds: Tornado in New Hampshire?

A deadly storm hit New Hampshire this week, but I don't recall New Hampshire as being prone to tornados, do you?

 

Pork and Corn

"Agribusiness Group forms to protect Ethanol Subsidies."  Why companies like ADM, Monsanto, DuPont and Deere need tax-money to move into ethanol is just beyond me.  Isn't that what capital markets are for?  Meantime, the price of food - especially corn-finished beef -  is being bid up by - you'll love this - our own tax dollars!  Is this a marvelous country, or what?

---

I'm serious as a heart attack here:   ADM's gross profit for the past 12 months is $3.24 billion, Monsanto's was $4.29 billion, put DuPont down for $9.09 billion, and Deere did $7.83 billion gross profit.

 

I must be 24-kinds of stoopid (sic)  to want to see companies with a combined gross profits (ttm basis) in excess of  $24 billion dollars start sucking off our hard-earned income taxes.  Send them to the capital markets!  If ethanol makes sense, let the free markets do their job!

 

Who are these dopes in Washington who aren't getting it?  Socialize losses, underwrite the rich, and privatize profits.  No different than communists back when, except instead of a dacha, there's Vail trips and use of corpgov jets.  Oh...did I forget something?  Campaign contributions for the incumbent recipients...OMG...how foolish of me... forget I mentioned this.

 

Do As We Say Department

California's "Yacht Party" is in trouble because they're being called out over the tax loophole that lets the super-rich keep their private yachts and jets free of taxes... Remind us not to leave our Gulfstream in the Golden State too long...

 

--- snip and save section ---

Coping: Who's Surfing?

In a report out today "China says has more people surfing the Web than US".  Ah...this is only on gross numbers - not percentage-wise.  All those computers at people's offices?  I figure the amount of lost productivity due to corporate web surfing is easily into the billions, which is why more and more corporations have installed net nannies to keep workers focused.  Now, get back to work.

 

Toxic Workplaces

Keep an eye on the battle by the Bushistas' Labor Department to put in rules which will allow industry to avoid compliance with righter workplace toxic chemical exposure rules. The Labor Department has so far refused to release the rules publicly which a thoughtful person could take as a big RED FLAG.

---

Say, this isn't key fund-raising time, is it?...naw...there I go again...

 

Language Arts

If you don't know the difference when a woman refers to her "Ask me out boots" or her "ignore me boots", time to sign up for the Urban Dictionary's daily word.  They do a major public service.  Not only can I use hep abbreviations, but I can almost understand my kids.  Almost...not quite...almost....

 

Brain Food

A good set of pictures of "Ancient Egyptian Flying Vehicles" might be an interesting diversion if you're sick of too much financial reality.

 

Roswell Confessional?

Since former Astronaut Edgar Mitchell's 'outing' of alien contact this week, several people have sent me notes like this one:

"George:

I ordered a book last week that purports to be the transcript from the first hand account of an Air Force nurse who attended to the "Crash Victims" at Roswell. Interestingly, one survived for two months and she found that she could communicate telepathically whereas the men could not. Consequently, she was used to "debrief" the alien. The book listed below is that story. I have just started reading it and it is fantastic. Thought you might be interested.

http://www.lulu.com/content/2144178

Hmmm...OK, on the reading list...

 

Better than Bowser?

"BigDog"  the "most advanced quadruped on earth" looks like just the ticket if you're tired of feeding the dogs... No more Milk Bones...just top off the hydraulic fluid and....

---

Send snip and save items to george@ure.net

--- end snip and save section ---

 

Peoplenomics.com 

Forecasting the "Fall"

I'm not going to beat around the bush on this:  The numbers are horrific.  But, step by step, I show you this week how I arrive at the most painful financial conclusion I've ever reached:  If your 401(k) has retained even half its value by the end of this year, you will be doing very, very well, compared to most.  If you're thinking "Gee, wonder if that means a Dow under 9,000?"  You may be horrified how far under.  Plus, a few more thoughts on PCP (personal contingency planning) for October.

.

          More For Subscribers         Subscription Information

 

Not a Subscriber yet?  It's just $40/Year:  (Allow 48-hours for processing)