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Feeds updated daily The World Through Oil Colored Glasses So what would help you put all the international parts of the Manufacturer's Resource War into usaeful analytic perspective? Well, how about a handy "Who has How Much Oil" chart? Sure. Then, as we stumble across news stories, we can replace the country name, so easily spun up by the politicos, with the Percent (Low estimate).
First a little data if you will, maestro, which is sourced at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves but to which I have added the percent columns to make it easy to see who has what:
Now comes the interesting part. We will read today news headlines and replace country names with Oil Reserves Using lower%, but you can write your own using the high% if you're a screaming optimist.. Shall we?
7.3% Blasts 2% (Putin Blasting US ) In our latest round of "pot calling the kettle black", we find Vlad Putin says the 2% (US) is using almost uncontained force - which he figures will encourage other countries to seek nuclear weapons. Is this hypocritical on Vlad's part? I betcha I know the answer if I ask around in Afghanistan, Chechnya, or Belarus... --- Meantime, the 7.5% (Russians) are also ticked off about the US missile defense plan. Sergei Ivanov (Russians version of Don Rumsfeld sans aspartame) because says Ivanov, it appears that by placing rockets and interceptor radars in Poland and the Czech Republic, the US would try to shoot down Russian weapons.
Parenthetically, I have to hand it to Ivanov. He's a 24 kt. whiz kid for figuring this out - I mean the notion that a missile defense system would shoot down missiles launched against the 2% - why that takes at least three brain cells firing in unison.
What he's really saying is that ever since the 2% abrogated the ABM treaty in 2001 (an event masked by the shortly following 9/11 events and the subsequently spun up economy-salvaging War on Terror) 7.3% has been worried that the 2% would make "defensive" claims all the way to the 7.3%'s Kremlin gates. It's to the 7.3% way of thinking the corporate-capitalist running out of oil version of Lebensraum, Hitler's pre WW II "rationale" for pushing its borders to include other countries including Poland.
Not like the 2% are the first to push - it's just a retooled, updated version of Manifest Destiny 1.0. The public-generated knowledgebase over at Wikipedia lists a large number of "Expansionist movements in other countries" including: So, the 7.3% version of Rumsfeld-now-Gates isn't comfortable. On the other hand, with kids in Seattle, I'm not especially comfortable with 7.3% nuke subs prowling just off the 200 miles limit, either. Sure, you've been led to think the Cold War is over, and that's probably true. But it has been replaced with what we label around here as the "Manufacturer's Resource Wars" and the subs of the Kremlin and our shiny new ABM systems don't particularly care what label the media uses to sum up the situation to a dumbed down public.
The fact is that we're still populating our way toward a die-off of planetary proportions, and there are only a few ways to play it: Get sustainable (our personal choice which is why we're on a ranch in East Texas) or get dead. Won't happen overnight, but the Petri dish is fully populated and the oil-agar is not being replenish as fast as the bacterial humans are scarfing it up. Plain as day, although the quibbling over rates makes your People's Economist a bit cranky at times.
Obviously, this has an economic outcome (which is ostensibly what this site is about) and that's why I try to connect a few dots each day so people who trip over their own awaken consciousness can be assured "Nope, you're not the only one who recognizes that the world is nuts." A non-crazy world might be run by the most highly evolved humans - spiritually, intellectually, and especially intuitively. But we get what? Bankers pulling the strings for profits!
Say, did I mention 666, end times, and banksters meeting this weekend?
Strange? What's Strange? I can't tell you how many readers noticed that the price of gold closed the week at $666.70 by Kitco's chart number above. The reason figures one Reuters report is that world financial figures are meeting this weekend - and no one is safe when the banksters huddle behind closed doors. Yup, they didn't invite the People's Economist again, nor did they invite the time monks. The 666 price should only worry people who live in the moment. The futures price is above $670. But I digress...
2% Blames 11.6% for its War failures in 10.6%, Says 11.6% --- Meantime, 2% says 11.6% supplying bombs to uncooperatives in 10.6%. --- And you know, 11.6% is telling 2% it will retaliate if attacked. --- Also moving oil up to the $60 range are cuts in 3.3% (Nigeria). -- We're still expecting that 2%, or its proxy 0%, will attack 11.6% in 03/2007, and we read that 0% is holding out that option. The 7.3% are predicting the 2% will go 238/239 before 04/07. too.
The numbers put the absurdity into clear perspective, don't they? I think I'll go out and feed the chickens now.
Peoplenomics: Redefining Rich Do you want to see a huge change in the world - something revolutionary? how about considering what happens to the concept of "rich" when it runs in to limited resources? Let me back up: Last week, a long rumored UN Climate Report came out and said humans were not only largely responsible for climate change, but had every reason to be concerned about it. Then, within days came reports that funded by big oil, academics were offered cash incentives to come up with critiques of the report in advance. All of which would fall to the bottom of our priorities except that it dawned on me that the implications of major climate shift could be dwarfed by something else: a global consciousness shift. One implication? The very definition of the term "rich" may be about to change dramatically. More for Subscribers Subscription Information
Spend $10, Save Thousands Our ebook "How to Live on $10,000 a year or less" gives you all kinds of ways to live on less money. In the Peoplenomics bookstore.
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Friday February 9, 2007 The "Green death" ahead OK, if you're really paying attention (as several readers were), you might have implied a connection between yesterday morning's report, where we included this itsy-bitsy clue about events barreling towards us from the future and events later in the day.
The exceptionally bright readers thought the timing was a strange coincidence that within hours of posting this, along comes the headline that Anna Nicole Smith had died and the media has made this THE big headline of the week, a total non-surprise around here.
With the "death of prominent person" part fulfilled, we now have to start looking at the "green death" to come and starting trying to sort through what the web bot linguistics might be trying to message.
Our problem interpetationally, (if I can create a word at this hour) is just what "green" means. To review how the future forecasting technology works, millions of public discussion group messages are scanned, forward-directed sentences with keywords of interest are read and 2048 byte snips of postings are emailed to the project's servers. This data is then sliced and diced in prolog and then thrown as a series of dots into CAD 3D modelspace. Where a "cloud" of dots (as in 3D scatter chart) move in strange twists and turns, one can do a "reverse look-up" of the dots' hex number, and come up with aspects and attributes of a coming event - in this case, a death which will be "green."
This is the frustrating part of the project, at least for me. The 'time monks' aren't worried about it because in a sense, it keeps the future in the range of probable (implying some degree of malleability of future events) instead of being completely predestined, in which case, free choice is an illusion, and the world becomes a place you Kant imagine. Joke's on us. --- All of which is philosophically interesting, but doesn't narrow down the "green" death - likely in March if the swirling dots are being clear. Close temporally, but not tomorrow or the next day away from the "prominent" passing likely just noted. So, what the heck does "green" mean? Some ponderings:
One possibility is that green could be a reference to "environmental" or a leader/figure/icon of the environmental movement.
With all the military activity now (and pending over the next month or two) 'green' might infer something military - as in olive drab/green uniform.
Then there's 'green' as in "money" and if this were the case. If the reference is to green (as in greenbacks) then a key/iconic/leader/architect of finance would seem to be the point.
But the one I find most interesting relates to 'green' as in Fulcanelli, a late 19th century master Alchemist, who is closely associated with 'green' as in 'green language' or the 'language of the birds.' The short version of this is that those who work with the spirit realms, which is where the Great Works take place - something most folks are too buy trying to refi homes to remember - often deal in 'green language'. This possibility raised here is that the 'green' death could be related to a spiritual/religious/alchemical/church kind of leader of international significance.
It's here that I'll stop trying to second-guess the future - nothing's likely to be gained and besides, it'll get here soon enough. Today there is much to do. We'll just be the wing nuts with a T-1 and too many lines of code - and pray the future seen is not preordained, and we're not blowing smoke...
Whaling Showdown Lots of other "green" news today: A head-to-head for the Sea Shepherd folks in the Southern Ocean where Japanese whaling continues despite treaties to the contrary. Almost reads like an adventure story. --- Sir Richard Branson is offering a $25 million prize for figuring the best way to remove CO2 from the atmosphere - joining him was Al Gore. --- Canada's environment minister has indicated government resistance to the Kyoto Protocols. Quick, look surprised. The "have" countries don't like Kyoto, the "have not" countries do. Sort of like the perps and the victims in a crime novel.
Plane Silly Runaway debt, runaway war, broken borders and a North American Union to steal America's Constitutional freedoms and we read about Nancy in the Sky again. Plane amazing. Plain silly. Give her a jumbo jet, for Heaven's sake - it's all just paper anyway, right?
Snowed Snow levels are approaching 7 feet in update New York, go the headlines.
Driving Business Most of the international headlines don't look like serious business drivers today, and oil softening a bit seems to underscore that.. The Elk Hills (California) field concerns drove things for a while near the US close yesterday, but the panic seems to have worn off overnight. Our pocket libretto says a down move won't likely develop until mid next week, the 13th or after, then through month end, but this isn't opera, so no putting too much faith in the libretto, eh? --- Michigan governor Jennifer Granholm is talking about a 2% tax on services. Everything from haircuts to legal fees would be included, but I expect that once the legal and accountancy lobbies get ramped up on this, they will find a way to weasel out of taxes. I'd look for them to call what they do "professional services" and thus miss the sales tax, but that's only a side bet. Lawyers give more to causes than barbers, so you know the outcome, right? --- Another thing to watch is the default rate on housing loans. The Chicago Trib headlines today that "Bank's mortgage warning could be a bad sign". No kidding? --- Layoffs are bound to pick up as the web bot runs anticipate incredibly high unemployment by the end of summer. Latest indicators include...
Seriously Good Service Story Time: With the move into my new office here at the ranch, I started thinking about my lack of artwork. What would be fun, whimsical, humorous, and yet be subtle? Then it came to me - the Mad Magazine poster "Pirates of the Constitution" drawn by a genius of an artist who happens to read this site now and then. The poster, available from the Mad Magazine web site, is a spoof of the "Pirates of the Caribbean" artwork - and tastefully done.
So armed with artwork from the aforementioned artist/reader, I went searching for a printer - found one in www.epingo.com, and had two posters made - one for me, one for the artist. Nice size, mounted on backer board, laminated, you know, ready for the wall. ePingo, in turn sent the poster FedEx and that's where it went missing on Feb. 2.
So I called the ePingo folks and said "What can you do?" They graciously did a rush print and reshipment - which will arrive today.
Well, that was yesterday afternoon, Texas time.
And, wouldn't you know it? Last night at 8:08 PM, FedEx's trackers (who work out of Philadelphia, I found out) found the first package as their Hutchins TX facility - and it was scanned into Tyler this morning. Meantime, the replacement posters are due in Monday or so.
All of which is to make two points. First, I may end up with two extra posters of the "Pirates of the Constitution" poster - and if they arrive in good shape, we'll have some kind of contest to give them away, and the second point is to say that my faith is small business going the extra mile to get things right is restored, thanks to the folks at www.epingo.com.
So, as a free plug (and even a link now) if you ever have a picture you want made into a poster, these are 24 kt. folks to deal with in my book.
Funny Friday - or is it? My friend Ehor ("The Mazurok-Ure Correlation" 2001) sent along this snip making it's rounds on the net:
Thursday February 8, 2007 Tumblers in the Lock Sadly, we are obliged to report that still more tumblers are falling in the "event lock" which has, until now, kept us from expanding the Middle East War into Iran. You may not hear these tumblers falling by listening to mainstream media, unless it happens to be Lou Dobbs, one of the few really good journalists worth watching. But I digress.
And, oh, by-the-by, while we continue to push American naval forces into the Persian Pond, we notice than Iran has made no secret of its successful firing of a low altitude ship-killer missile system, too. While some journalists are putting the consequences of an Iran attack into perspective, such as Jon Basil Utley's "12 Consequences of Attacking Iran" our fear is not about $5 gas. It's about $25 dollar gas and $400/barrel oil. And maybe Region X being nuked by the Russians. --- The time monks at www.halfpasthuman.com, who are busy getting their next event-predictive software run ramped up, tell me I worry too much and that the global picture could be worse. In fact, they tell me to expect it to get worse - much worse:
Sure enough, it's lurking behind the headlines: Pakistan (read: US backed Musharraf) sees terror as a growing internal issue - a local microcosm of the larger picture. There may be some further basis for their concern, too, as the Hindustan Times headlines "Disadvantage Musharraf" and tees off with: Financial markets don't seem to get it, at least not yet. That's probably because there is a happy-talk way to read things. For example "Iran-India-Pakistan gas pipeline accord by June" sounds like....like progress on the surface. But while the price of gold might drop a few dollars here or there, our bets will be hedged by the linguistics project and what we expect will be huge emotional releases past mid march. --- It's time to repeat out usual admonishment about subscribing to the future-predictive web bot runs (click here for more information). First, they are not for those with weak hearts or an otherwise impaired constitution. Secondly, if you don't have a six-figure income, there are much more important ways to spend your money: eliminating debt, getting a supply of food laid in, and really preparing your family for some of the emergencies that are likely this year and next. Third: We deliberately sketch ourselves as marginal nutjobs in this look-ahead linguistics stuff because it's just sensible. There's nothing more dangerous than predicting the future and getting too much of it right, so our cloaks of craziness are wore with good reason.
The really, really big stuff will likely show up here because it's just the right thing to do and it's fun to know where to watch the preconscious future bubble up out of "news stew.".
Last, but not least, we have not - and will not - use the technology to make a buck, other than the propitious buying of a silver or gold coin here and there.
"So if we had been any more specific about the forecast Banda Aceh quake, would you have gone out and shorted the regional tourist hotel stocks?" ask the time monks. Troubling questions questions about the "ultimate insider information" aside, the look-ahead technology is like driving a karma ghia. We'll leave the "profits from the misery of others" to the fellows on the other path.
Killer Calculations The death toll continues to mount in the Iraq (and larger) Middle East War. The most recent Iraq car bombing has killed 22 and wounded 60. --- With the administration's submission of the budget fairytale this week, I suppose it's time to rerun our Alternative War Cost Calculations. The way this works is simple. The CIA World Fact Book says there were 26,783,383 folks in Iraq (don't know if they count our cammo-clad forces or not, but I expect not) as of July '06. The next thing we do is flip over to the Cost of War "clock" which is spinning up toward $365-billion with no end in sight.
So to round off, let's say the war ultimately costs $500 billion and divide that among the population of Iraq. If my calculator (and not-so-nimble fingers) are working right, we could have put $18,668.29 in the hands of every man, woman and child in the country in lieu of war if it goes to $500-billion. (Bet me it won't.)
Now think about it: Suppose you were in Iraq four years ago and the USA had come along a few years ago and said "You have a choice here and there are two choices!"
Assuming you haven't fired off a hash pipe today, which option would you choose? Am I the only one who notices a lack of foresight and rational decision-making lately?
"Not a Police State" The BBC headlines "No. 10 rejects police state claim." Referring to comments made by a Muslim who was arrested in the recent "terror / kidnapping" plot, and then released without charges. --- I'm reminded of the old political saying: A conservative is someone who hasn't been to jail yet. In the UK case, if once-suspect Abu Bakr was rounded up as a moderate, I expect he'll be getting over that now. --- The UK story about letter bombs being mailed to vehicle licensing offices in Wales turns out not to be terror, although it might have felt that way at first. Nope, this is looking more and more like road rage carried to the next level.
NK Nuke Talks Everyone is wishing and hoping for something to come from the latest Korea talks. There's only one outcome we're certain of - a large catering bill. Other than that, I'm not sure which would be more difficult to get: Jessica Simpson's phone number, or a meaningful Pyong Yang deal.
Mad Cow I'm reminded of the Beatles: "Numbah Nine, Numbah Nine, Numbah Nine" Yes, it's the 9th mad cow case in Canada.
Pelosi and the Jets Speaking of musical things and with apologies to Elton John, I won't go suggest Weird Al Yankovic go retool "Benny and the Jets" under the title "Pelosi and the Jets" but I bet he could have a hell of a lot of fun with it. Especially since the latest is a Pentagon decision that the Speaker doesn't need a non-stop jet to whip out to California when so moved, so to speak. A chorus, maestro?
Ok, there are other songs that could be retooled, too. "Nancy in the Sky with Diamonds."
Honest Person Quick! Call Diogenes of Sinope! An honest cab driver returned a jeweler's case with 31 diamond rings, despite only getting a 30-cent tip. The honest act by Osman Chowdhury scored him a $100 reward. Damn shame Chowdhury, not to mention Diogenes, aren't in CONgress. --- Where'd I put the matches?
Shortages Meme Ah, yes, the shortages. Reader reports:
Another?
Chart check? Sure - new record high:
Brain Foods More reading inputs: http://www.ichblog.eu/content/view/405/2/ And if that doesn't explain our fondness for precious metals, don't miss this one!
Hell of a good book. Wednesday February 7, 2007 Traders, Raptors and Hackers As we continue toward the early to mid March rollover from a "pressure building" period, into a release period that will latest through mid September, during which we are expecting some "Katrina-sized" and larger news events, the latest round of spider reports that the www.halfpasthuman.com folks use to scour the internet are starting to report back.
Off one discussion group, for example, there was this snip: "Just heard it on the local news here in Norfolk. Support personnel flew out of Langley Air Force Base today, tomorrow flight crews will make the 14 hour trip. This is the first overseas deployment for the radar evading state of the art aircraft. I will try to find you a link from the local news."
A quick check of the wider web shows that, yes, the Raptors are heading west - and the information is in the public domain but not getting much in the way of mainstream attention. The technology used by the HPH folks is the same basically as is used by Google and the other search engines when they send spiders off to find out what's happening and great pains are taken to ensure only publicly accessible sources are used and bandwidth constrained to small email size. --- Still, the internet is a delicate space, in some regards. The IT world (a large chunk of which has been offshored) is atwitter with reports that Hackers attacked a lot of key internet traffic computers briefly on Tuesday. We'll take this as another data point and explain in a moment. --- Next, I want you to scan through some Iran notes with me. first, the Iranians say the US is making false accusations against it in order to cover up its failures in Iraq. The next item will be the International Atomic Energy Agency's report on Iran.
More significantly, at least to my way of thinking, is a couple of deep thinkers from the Cato Institute have a piece out today under the headline "Evidence Suggests Iran Wouldn't Pull the Trigger" which is definitely worth a read.
Taken in concert with all the US military moves into the region, it suggests we will go more toward a Gulf of Tonkin start to any Iran action, or just wake up in March to a "surgical" Israeli strike, made possible by the US coordinating overflights of Iraq, and maybe throw in a refueling operation along the way.
In the wake of George Bush telling the Russians that we have no plans to strike Iran, and this morning Tony Blair selling the notion that No One is Planning Iran War, we have to sit back and wonder who's telling the truth. --- To summarize, we have our time-predictive friends looking for a major sea state change in mid March, ships being deployed and Raptors on the move. But, for now, the markets aren't yet reacting or anticipating. But they may soon: I figure there's a chance that the internet attack over the past few days was almost certainly a test probe prior to the outbreak of something larger. No doubt, America's enemies would want to er....squeeze our nets... should things turn ugly.
This likely won't start to dawn on the financial markets until toward the end of next week, when we expect the first whiffs of fear to enter, perhaps masked by derivatives froofrah. So we continue watching for the subtle jibs and jabs and the small indicators that mean a mood shift is underway. Small things. The price of oil firming a bit (and see next story) and along with it, the recent move of the precious metals to levels just under recent highs. Gold is pushing toward $700, and a break well over that could start a run to somewhere north of $1,000. Silver, which is also firming, could head for levels over $20. --- Now, this is not to be construed as investment advise. It's just my rumination on headlines over a cup of coffee. Lots of folks will gather around water coolers and in lunchrooms today and still be rehashing last weekend's football game.
To my simple view of people, they fall into one of three mindsets. There are the "stuck in the past" people, who insist on listening to the "oldies station." I figure with their time orientation, they will believe just about anything from mainstream media. Then you've got the present moment folks. These tend to be your Type A people, and while they may think about news and the broader brush of life, they tend to focus on whatever's on fire at the moment - the kidnapping stories, the big fires, and the report the Boss needs on his desk right now. That leaves perhaps 10-20% of people to worry - and think about in advance - what's going to happen next.
I'm pleased to report that the "living 10-minutes in the future" folks tend to congregate around this site. It's more important than oldies and last weekend's football game because we can still prepare, plan, and with the pocket-sized libretto from our friends, we have what may be some lexical clues where to be looking for tomorrow's events. Even though the tailgating parties are over for the year, 80% of America faces the future by looking in the rearview mirror; musically, linguistically, and even in current events - like the productivity numbers that come out today which will cover time long since past. --- Not that oldies radio is bad, of course, it's just that it's symptomatic to me of a mindset. A very few special "oldies" songs do have a future orientation: Paul Brady's "The World is What You Make It" is an example, but I doubt many folks remember the lyrics: Obviously, no one lives in the future all the time - you need to enter the present moment, if for nothing else, to eat meals. And the past is certainly a useful instructional video to playback so you can avoid making the same mistakes over and over. Only a very few, like the time monks, ever consciously decide their orientation, question the malleability of the future (and raise the issue with me) and then ask "How much time is spent looking ahead? How much behind?" Darn kalapas.
So, if I could offer you three types of people with significant future orientations to watch very carefully, I'd point right now to traders, Raptor drivers, and hackers. Uh huh?
Diesel Up The Trucker reports diesel is up 2.2 cents in their latest survey. We've just picked up a couple of more barrels and we'll get another couple of quarters of Sta-bil this week and top off the supplies here at the ranch. I figure investing in energy prior to the first week of March, or so, might be a good investment.
Shoot the Messenger Department Never to let inconvenient facts come in the way of preconceived notions - so it would seem as we read through the "Shoot the Messenger" stories this morning:
Terror Tax or Tax Terror? Joe (I'll vote for him when hell freezes over) Lieberman says CONgress should consider a tax to fight terrorism. We've always found Lieberman...er....taxing.
Excessive Government Department
A republicorp legislator here in Texas wants to introduce criminal
fines for missing parent-teacher conferences.
Remember when republicans (not these pretenders I call republicorps)
stood four-square for small government?
I can hardly wait till the Texas Legislature takes this to the
logical end and makes turning in video's a terrorist event and
missing dental appointments a felony. I expect most Texans think "WE HAVE ENOUGH GOVERNMENT ALREADY."
Wal-Mart Bias Suit ...is going ahead. More than a million women are potentially involved in this.
Coincidence? We noted earlier the hack attacks on the net this week. Then this morning we have Cisco coming out with market-boosting higher earnings forecast. Hmmm. Coincidence I'm sure. But: Can you spell "u-p-g-r-a-d-e-s"?
Mogambo This being Wednesday (anything can happen day) look for the new Mogambo Guru report around 8 AM at www.independejournal.com/mogu/. And here's a reader reminder: If the hackers ever take down www.urbansurvival.com the site is mirrored at www.independencejournal.com --- If you caught the rap on Steve Quayle's show last night, the PowerPoint and PDF of the notes are at www.urbansurvival.com/hamradio/
Tuesday February 6, 2007 Glorious Accounting OK, so if I were to run the ranch on the same basis as the Federal Budget it would go something like this:
The key difference is I'd be called a "nutjob." And the fellow in Washington is called "Mr. President." Despite the massive differences in what he can get away with, and what I can't, the L.A. Times in analyzing the choker Federal Budget notes that the "Cost of troop buildup [is] not in budget." That's be in the "off budget" category.
A mighty charitable BusinessWeek admits that, OK, it does look like a "Budget with Rose-Colored Glasses" but doesn't get too deeply into the three underlying facts that escape public attention during budget debates. I'd offer them as follows:
My point is that the accounting basis of the federal government would land a private-sector accountant in jail if pulled with the IRS. Printing up money on an as-desired basis, might also draw Treasuries attention, unless of course, the Fools on the Hill sent the right paperwork. And that all starts with on and off budget accounting and a silly notion that paper + ink equals "money." If any of us tried it, paper +ink equals jail. Unless we were going for $2.9 trillion worth...
Now, let me get down from this soap box and see if there's anything rational in today's headlines...
Yukos Troubles Once the biggest private energy outfit in Russia, we read how prosecutors are filing new charges against a jailed Russian oil tycoon. It's a move which could land state control of Yukos in Vlud Putin's pocket. So why didn't GW do this with Enron (or Worldcomm)? Difference of management style compared to Putin, I'd reckon.
Russia's Human Shields Oh, quick, look surprised! Remember, our explanation of how Russia was quietly telling the West NOT to mess with Iran? And how the US pressed assurances on Russia we had no intentions in that regard? (Germany said something similar to Russia about Poland in 1939, as Russians remember). Thus it's no surprise tio see the news that :"Russian senators [are] to visit Irand in Late Fruary.
Can you spell "h-u-m-a-n- s-h-i-e-l-d-s"? --- Our friends with the amazing time-predictive software project at www.halfpasthuman.com (who are now accepting signups for the next future predictive run, by the way) are watching the arrival in a month of the March release period. "It's like we might see some kind of crisis/standoff from about March 7 through the 15th or so," they privately allow. There's a lot more too it, as their subscribers know, but we plan to have bags of ready-to-nuke popcorn standing by for the second week of March. Should be quite a show that follows over the balance of spring and summer, although I'm still wondering if I should buy my used (but recalibrated) Geiger counter this month or next. --- Reader question: "What's the best site for buying potassium iodide online? My principal concerns are 1) being sure that I'm actually getting potassium iodide at the proper dosage and not a rip-off placebo, and 2) site security for the purchase." Simple answer: Got mine at www.ki4u.com and found them fine to deal with and it's where I will go for my counter.
Coms and Preps Steve Quayle has asked me to do a "first timers" introduction to shortwave radio./ ham radio, and so I will do a "radio class" on his show tonight. We'll cover basics - like the differences between AM, FM, single sideband and such, along with a discussion of shortwave in general and ham radio in particular. Remember the feds have axed the Morse Code requirement effective February 23rd, so visit www.arrl.org for test prep materials. A lot of places will sell you a decent shortwave receiver for under $100, and a good entry-level talk anywhere in the world ham radio, like the Icom 718 is under $600 or so. (If you get the 718, be sure it comes with the DSP unit UT-106 installed)
Mogambo Debate Several readers wrote in about the ongoing dialog (or, is that diatribe) that I'm having with the ("We're all freakin' doomed!") Mogambo Guru, and the ("Free trade is a labor exploit sham!") People's Economist. The background is here, and check out the comments:
Another (obvious Mogambo plant) offered that I should get in touch with reality. However, at least one reader saw it my way...
While both the Mogambo and I are disappointed in the new low order China board markers taking some of the joy out of our respective lectures, we nevertheless agree that unless you can find a laser printer without the Treasury ID marker in its software, gold is still the best hedge out there. Along with maybe a ranch in Paraguay.
Debatable Strategy We read this morning a headline that "Obama, Clinton May Skip Early Debates." Good! now if we can get them to skip the later ones, too. --- Am I pulling for someone else? Oh, you mean like The Honorable Ron Paul (one of few entitled to wear that moniker, I'd add)? Well, duh. Second choice? The Honorable Tom Tancredo.
Free lunches being popular, I don't expect strong borders and honest money to stand a chance against the corporate slosh and slush, but it's the dream, huh?
Astronaut Bust
World's Oldest Newspaper Goes Digital Leave it to the Swedes. TrueType fonts trump movable type. --- We're all still just one EMP blast away from stone tablets, though, right?
Monday, February 5, 2007 I wouldn't have thought about this one, but folks in Korea have: They're looking at future labor shortages as baby boomers now in the workforce start to retire. Another country with a big demographic problem ahead? Russia. In fact on Russia, a 2001 CIA report (published on the web) offers this stark assessment:
We don't think about big, slow moving trends like the birth bubbles, but they really do matter to fundamentalists in the investment world. It also matters to military planners, which gets us around to our point. --- I don't suppose that you were watching KNHL TV in Honolulu, but our time-adventuring linguistics pals caught a very interesting story about the hurried and unexpected departure of two more US Navy destroyers heading for what the Navy calls a "surge deployment."
I would expect military planners to be cautiously weighing out what Russia's response will be should the US, or Israel, attack Iran, which as we all know is trying to build atomic weapons. The touchy part, however, is that installations like Bushir are being built using Russian technicians, funding, and support. So while the Russian press reports in its English-language editions about how Congress is being asked for more money today, we hear the Russian language reports are saying the US has been warned quite directly that Russia won't sit idly by while either the US or Israel bombs Iran.
The English language reports go to the idea that the Russian foreign minister has been given assurances that the US is not planning an attack on Iran, but the rest of the story seems to be that that Russians have signaled "you better not" as well as a "don't let Israel, either."
--- The role of Russia as it relates to how the Iran situation works out is critical. Russia is a powerful country and it has designs of forming up a "natural gas version of OPEC" and that has profound implications for Europe. Thus, we might expect that if push comes to shove over Iran, Russia's energy leverage with Europe will prevent nations that might otherwise be our allies, from siding with the US.
As the Resource Investor pointed out this weekend, the "North Sea's Decline and Russia's Intransigence Highlight Gas Challenges and Opportunities." --- The problem of how to deal with Iran is also now a political football among the political wannabe's who are running for the White House. Hillary Clinton was courting jewish votes this weekend and - The Muslim News headlines it "Hillary calls Iran a threat to US, Israel." Meanwhile, republican Mitt Romney is even more hawkish, saying Hillary's wanting to establish dialog with the countries involved amounts to timidity. My sense is that tensions are plenty high enough around Iran, and the politicos doing word-slinging doesn't help reveal pertinent facts - it just raised blood pressure all around.
So let's return to a few more facts that may weigh on how you position yourself (and your assets) for what could well be a mid March emotional release period.
First, we note that the new chief of the Israeli Army, Gabi Ashkenazi, has been confirmed by the cabinet.
Secondly, we notice that the administration (and military) claims that Iran is supporting the civil war in Iraq is, as USA Today reports, "...being met with skepticism."
Thirdly, there's a growing chorus of professional thinkers and ex US military chiefs urging unconditional talks on the one hand, and neocons promoting first use of nuclear weapons on the other. --- Here at the ranch, we'll continue working on being ready for anything come mid March. There are too many pictures of smiling American officials like Robert Gates and Peter Pace saying "America is not going to fight against Iran."
The maneuvering continues, too. An Iranian nuclear scientist has been "assassinated" says one US web site. But, no, t'ain't so, counterclaims Iran. Meantime, folks in Israel might well be wondering what Iran's president means when he says "Iran's nuclear rights will be established on February 11th" - which is the anniversary of the country's 1979 Islamic revolution.
If the US or Israel were to engage in "first use" of nukes against Iran, I'd expect Russia to go second to defend their investment, and perhaps India third, just to settle the Kashmir question. So when the government says, in effect "don't worry" as they are now, that seems a fine time to starting being really worried and making investment decisions accordingly. Demographic pressures equal resource pressures equals war, I'm afraid..
Bird Flu Surprise Folks in the UK are worried about bird flu since H5N1 turned up in eight-week old turkeys raised in a what would be considered a biosecure facility. The BBC says government is moving to keep consumers from turning fickle on poultry.
Trouble for Big Brother The Real ID Act of 2005 - the $11-billion dollar national database to put all drivers licensing into a common database is being challenged by states. Sadly, Texas is not one of those that is concerned with privacy, it seems. --- Speaking of which: When states like Texas turn over operation of toll roads to private operators, does that mean state police still have powers? Something to think about if you get pulled over on a toll road, huh? (Amazingly, I haven't had a ticket since 1968...even with a 911 and a 944...it's a miracle, I tells yah.)
Yellow Snow It's not toxic say Russian officials, of that yellow snow that we reported last week as falling in Siberia. Which is sort of interesting. Officials don't seem to know what it is, but they have somehow concluded it is not toxic. Now, call me skeptical here, but when I went to school, you couldn't rule out toxicity until you knew what something was. Maybe they teach things differently in Russia?
I found myself in hot water this weekend with a pithy letter from the "angriest man in economics" (The Mogambo Guru" landing in my inbox. As best I can tell, the Mogambo didn't cotton to my idea of Purchasing Power Parity tariffs, which could be used to compensate displaced American workers and industries, when our jobs are "offshored" to nickel-an-hour" workers overseas, so corporations can drop money to the bottom line as fast as the Fed can print it.
My point to the MG, TAMIE (the angriest man in economics) was that the gunpoint promotion of "free trade" would not exist (and neither would 3,000 mile Cesar Salads, come to think of it) if the current economic system hadn't figured a way to play wage-rate spreads and mislabel it as "free trade." I'll freely admit that a global wage leveling system installed overnight would be a disaster, but phased in over time, we could actually get back to being a country which makes things rather than running the world's largest financial instruments printing operation in all of history.
Capitalism is an incentive-driven animal. If there's a labor rate spread to exploit, we just step up, label it "free trade" and we'll just cut down all the rain forests with nickel-an-hour workers, to make cheap paper, and thank you very much. Profits 1, Planet zero.
I look at the things we no longer make in the USA, and I am astounded. Most computer chips are overseas. Cell phones. Who's worth talking to? We don't make refrigerators here. That's not cool, if you'll pardon me. No TV's, either. No microwaves, little clothing,
Instead of making things, we print off tons of financial gobbledygook (if you'll forgive my informal reference to derivatives and swaps) and pay people overseas to make our hard goods.
As I have told you many times, you know an economy is in lala land when you can trade pieces of paper backed by a banksters wink and nod for a good steak and a bottle of hooch.
Sadly, the Mogambo may be right - it may be too late to make change at a personal level because (choose one or more) the climate, bird flu, rampant printing of paper, and perpetual war, will likely do it for us.
News from Elliott Wave International
Write when you get rich,
George Ure, The People's Economist
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