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A Personal Note

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Weekends: We feature more in depth analysis for subscribers who pony up the modest $30/year subscription fee.  This week we look at the lifestyle implications of several major trends now changing course.  More info click here.

Withdrawal or Defeat?

We read this morning that the U.S. military is taking down the barbed wire which had surrounded parts of Fallujah and is pulling out.  In our place will go an armed force, led by one of Saddam's ex-military leaders.  The story at http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/3672205.stm uses the word withdrawal but we've got to ask a very sharp question here:  Think about what the difference in terms is between the word withdrawal and the word defeat. Regardless of our take on the distinction - and there is a minor one - there's also no doubt that the withdrawal will send a message that will be talked about in every mosque this weekend: I expect it'll likely be something like "See? We defeated the infidels..."  Ouch.

Winn's Becomes Losses

Oh yeah - big time.  Winnie-Dixie, the southeast food retailer we shopped at during our great Boca Raton adventure, is closing down some facilities and forcing 10,000 out of work.  Details at: http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGAYDU5AOTD.html  Not a jobjack...just a sucko economy.

Speaking of Sucko

This morning's Commerce Department report on Consumer Spending was noting was up, at all what the hypsters wanted.  While it showed that consumer spending was up, if you back out the impact of inflation, the reality is it was up one tenth of one percent - in other words, about keeping pace with the increase in population going on lately, so no, despite the headlines, consumer spending is flat: http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/040430/economy_incomes_2.html

Weekend TV Series

Being stuck in Burbank, I am planning to burn some mindless TV time Sunday night by watching the NBC mini-series 10.5 - a story about a mega-quake on the West Coast. http://au.news.yahoo.com/040429/11/os1h.html I'm not too worried, as I'm three blocks from NBC's HQ and I doubt they would left anything really serious happen to them...

Trouble for Dick

Seems like the source of the 'outing' of a CIA agent to the press was none other than Veep Dick Cheney's staff. http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/33B9F3C0-049B-4C79-BE6A-2BB770F95026.htm.

Buffettology Update

Our favorite rich guy is Warren Buffett.  Latest Buffettology at http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/040430/humble_buffett_1.html.

Party Venue by Mail

If you're planning to come to the Urban Survival get together in LA this weekend, be sure and send me an email: click here.  I'll send out details by email as to the where.  The when is Saturday at 1:00PM, probably out toward the beach.

For Subscribers

With the decline in the Dow this week and the failure of the Japanese market last night, all the Global Index markets are down for the week.  This weekend, we will game out some of the possible trajectories for the market in the months ahead.

Thursday

Two Weeks to 9500

OK, yesterday's little drop in the Dow didn't seem like that big a deal, but under the surface, we're seeing the same kind of tensions that we saw in the Summer of 2001 - right before the 9/11 attack.  What's got the market worried?  Publicly it's the usual list of suspects:  Weaker than expected GDP, China's hyper growth rate slowing and the rest:  http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/040429/markets_stocks_8.html.

But we think there's more to it - in fact a hell of a lot more.  That's based on the work of our colleagues at www.halfpasthuman.com which owns the proprietary web bot technology which we are able to periodically deploy to scan huge portions of the web (chat sites, discussion groups and the like) and from this huge snap shot of people's language, we have a pretty good idea of what's going to happen next.  Remember, the bots figure we are in a period of history not unlike the July 2001 period...some ugly this way comes soon. 

If the picture of a major setback for the U.S. around May 22 +/- 2-3 days doesn't sound good, nor a sort of 15% per month decline in quality of life over the summer, followed by a big (40%?) kind of hit in September, Half Past Human has now completed a third layer of linguistic shifts and what we find is that our preoccupation with the environment is well founded.  With generous permission, here's a tiny bit of Part 3 of the latest bot run:

"The SUN entity has many aspects indicating [increase] such as [growth (in great measure)], [(larger) possession], [(possession) on grand scale],[(larger) than proper proportions]. This entity shares a subset of its lexical attributes with other, climate related entities, and also, a developing link to politically related lexicons.

One of the entities sharing an interlinked subset is one being called Mass-of-Rain. This entity has some geographic references indicating that it will [form/create/endure] in the [North] and will [sweep (the horses/animals)] (before it) as it [descends (the mountain)] to [rule (the fertile land)] for (5 days). It, Mass-of-Rain, will dominate the USofA, removing from it the [(full )earthen bowl] in a way that (makes) [stragglers] (beat the locked door). This entity, Mass-of-Rain, has several aspect data-sets concerning sound. As though, part of its very nature is the sound it will impress on the consciousness of those who [(share) common experiences (of surviving)] Mass-of-Rain. Of this group, impressed by the sounds, will be those who [regret (being late-comers)]. These will require [aid (in great measure)], and will be heard [calling (for holding together)] as Mass-of-Rain [(gradually) descends with weight/force] on [fertile lands]. "  Subscription info: http://halfpasthuman.com/HPHSUBSCRIPTION_INFO.htm

By the way, Cliff and I have been asked to be on the Alex Merklinger (and William Pawelec) show next week - which I need to firm up today - I will post the time/date information as soon as it's set.

The other thing you might want to do is look at the comparison chart (vis-a-vis 1929 below) and ask yourself if you don't see how within a year or less the Dow could do another huge leg down to the 4,000 area.  Could it happen?  You bet!  We are entering into a strange new land of constrained energy supplies that will last the rest of our lifetime and compounding it, we might call it a "win" in Iraq, but the show down with militant Islam is not over by any stretch, and ask me after May 25 if we can win that conflict. 

I think the bottom line for today is this:  The market is, in my view, probably headed for 9,500 (or thereabout) in the next couple of weeks.  Bush's popularity hitting an all-time low (46% by the latest polls today - http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/04/28/opinion/polls/main614605.shtml ) mean that as stagflation arises, the lack of jobs on the one hand being deflationary and the soaring unit prices of commodities, we are in for one hell of a ride.  So relax.  Pretend you're down the road from me here in Burbank at Universal Studio.  It's all pretend anyway, the fiat money game.  The only things that matter are water, food, health, and a patch of land you can defend.  Beyond that, it's all gravy...

Saddam's Revenge

There's a report this morning that Saddam Hussein's departure from power in Iraq included plans for an insurgency against foreign powers including the U.S. which is trying to occupy the place: http://www.nytimes.com/2004/04/29/politics/29ENEM.html?ei=5062&en=e6cdfd994284f9c0&ex=1083816000&partner=GOOGLE&pagewanted=print&position=

Killer SUV's

Not only are SUV's a killer with gas prices here in the LA area running from $2.17 for the cheap stuff to $2.47 for the good stuff, depending on brand and location, but there's a report today that SUV's are deadlier in an auto accident that other choices: http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=1896&u=/nm/20040428/us_nm/transport_deaths_dc_2&printer=1  I have to admit that I almost bought a Suzuki Samurai when they came out - it was/is a neat ride, but the Consumer Reports article, though controversial at the time, got me to thinking and I held off.  Driving the Porsche 9/11 for what, 5-years, was one of the best moves a fellow could make.  I'm sort of looking around for a 968 here in Burbank - same great mileage, handling, and an update.  We'll see...

Sex in Space?  NASA's No-No

Oh yeah, we figured it would have to come to this.  NASA is apparently considering the use of chemical sterilization in order to keep space crews from getting a little...er...randy...on long voyages to places like Mars. http://news.independent.co.uk/world/science_technology/story.jsp?story=516336.  We've got a problem with this kind of thinking.  Oh sure, we've gotten a lot of good out of the space program, but getting rid of sex ain't progress in our book.  If anything, they should send married couples into space and so at least someone can find out what it's like to be on top and on the bottom at the same time. Space without sex would ruin a million movie plots here in Tinseltown, too.

Party Time?

Should we have a gathering Saturday of Urban Survival readers in the LA/Hollywood area?  I'm thinking about an informal get together for beers and such at a local bistro around 1 PM Saturday.  If you're interested, drop me a note and I will send you the details.  Click to get on the list  Elaine won't be here (she's still in Phoenix at her son's place, so I'm gonna be bored this weekend and a party (no host) would be fun.

Wednesday

Will the Constitution Survive?

That may seem like a dumb - or alarmist - question.  But it's not.  The High Court is about to hear whether American citizens who are labeled "enemy combatants" can be thrown in a military brig and denied access to legal counsel: http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGAAJM0GLTD.html Pray, and listen closely for the sound of approaching jack boots...

Nuke Notes

Question:  What country gets a huge amount of U.S. taxpayer money (foreign aid), has 200+ nuclear weapons, and refused to sign the nuclear non-proliferation treaty?  Well, that country is about to be visited by a nuclear watchdog: http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/13B16950-04E2-4FF7-B4FB-0DF60C2A1729.htm  Also, along the same lines, the number of nukes owned by North Korea has now been estimated at 8 - a huge increase from previous estimates that they had one.

Bone Us, No Bonus

That's the story at Computer Associates where accounting issues resulted, claim some shareholders, in the overpayment of $1.1 billion in bonuses to key executives.  Now that the cooked books are being cleaned up, those bonuses have become contentious: http://www.nypost.com/business/19695.htm

Bonesman 2 in Trouble?

Yeah, sure looks like it.  The (somewhat liberal) Village Voice has turned on Kerry as not being the right man for the Democratic party to run against George Bush this fall - and, they note, it's not to late to get a real candidate - not someone who is another millionaire and who waffles on what his real stand is on things like Vietnam. http://www.villagevoice.com/issues/0417/mondo1.php

Muslims in Thailand

Interesting to see another front in what we view as a clash between worldviews (the West versus militant Islamists) go active.  This time it's Thailand: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/3665293.stm

Washington Post - Cookies Monster?

I am a big fan of the Washington Post, but this morning when I tried to log in to read a story about a fellow who built an 80-foot sailboat and is now trying to figure out how to get it to water, the Post site demanded I provide my email and allow cookies from them to be stored on my computer.  But, here's the rub:  There's cookies and there's cookies.  A cookie is a bit of code that can store personal information, so you don't have to log in each time you visit a site using cookies.  BUT here's the catch.  There are also what are called "third party cookies" that, for example, might tell a pop-up ad provider when you visit the Post.  So the Post says I can't read their site without cookies enabled, and I use Zone Alarm Pro (a great firewall program) and it allows first party cookies but won't allow third party cookies, which cause all kinds of junk to happen to surfers.  So ask yourself, why can George's computer work with cookie users like Bank of America, PayPal, eBay and the list goes on, but the Post - which doesn't disclose what other cookies besides theirs might result from visiting their site - cookies won't work.  Our suspicion?  Maybe it's a cookie monster..but if you're an IT pro with a better idea, click here to tell us about it. . Sites that require third party cookies being enabled are immediately taken off our list of places to visit.

Cooler Today...

...than yesterday here in Burnbank where another record fell yesterday - 100 degrees.  Here's the list from the Nat. Wx Svc folks:

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/severe/records/04042801.KLAX

Partial Rapture?

Here's a story that caught our eye in Pravda this week - a little off the wall - but interesting.  It's a report on how through history, groups of people have just disappeared... http://english.pravda.ru/science/19/94/377/12624_Holes.html   We think this might be the same phenomena that Charles Berlitz was writing about in his books about the Bermuda Triangle.

Tuesday

Hot?  Damn Hot!

Well, day two of my consulting project here in Burbank is about to get underway - and I am pleased to report that I am running ahead of schedule in terms of results for the client - a nice state of affairs.  But is everything perfect?  Wel, not exactly.  It has been hot.  The weather here in the L.A. area broke all kinds of records yesterday: http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/severe/records/04042700.KLAX give you the run down on which records and by how much.

Naturally, one aspect of the unusual weather is that forest fires are springing up way ahead of usual.  Not only do our colleagues in the silicon forest of the Pacific Northwest report that forests are dangerously dry, way early, but there are already several fires making local headlines: http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGA29IXZJTD.html.

The local heat would not be an issue worthy of mention here except for three aspects:  First, it means the electricity  consumption of California will run higher than budget, which means the Governator's efforts to balance things just got a kick in the teeth.  Second, it chews up a whole bunch of natural gas and oil fired generation, which keeps the pressure up on oil and gas prices.  Third, it emphasizes that when 15,000-25,000 people died prematurely in Europe last year that the same thing could happen here this year... Global warming goes nuts?  Yup.  On the other hand, Panama reports we had 6 inches of rain at the ranch in E. Texas since Elaine and I left last Friday for the wild, wild swest.

Balance of X-Boxes

The importance to the world of a healthy U.S. consumer might be one thing you could read between the lines in Sony's latest results: http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGA3ID10KTD.html

Thanks, High Fructose Corn Syrup

Want someone to blame for the sudden increase in Type 2 Diabetes in the U.S.?  You might look to the processed food companies that are getting the bad rap by some of the scientific community: http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/4CAFCC92-5C35-48D3-B053-B63A19654D88.htm

Year of Decline

The web bot forecast, which paints a worsening year for the U.S. after late May could be more correct than we expected.  Here's a story about a top al Qaida mouthpiece saying that this is the year of attakcs on the U.S.... and with none in the country so far - at least biggies - we can reasonably expect that they will come closer to the elections: http://www.thisislondon.com/news/articles/10456856?source=TiL

Depends What You Mean, "Freedom"

The Muslim world is taking a very suspicious view of the June turnover of some authority to the appointed government of Iraq.  Let me see if I understand this.  Let's say we had a state about the size of Oregon and it was occupied because someone, say the Chinese, wanted the cut down Douglas firs.  They announce they are returning power to an appointed government in, ah, Salem (the capitol).  However, while the "power" was being transferred in name to the appointed government, there were 135,000 Chinese soldiers left in Oregon.  Would that be "freedom"?  You see the problem... http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/D02F2810-0D0A-478C-A6EE-C9CACAC1415C.htm is the detail about how this is being construed.

Day After NASA

OK, they got a bad rap for trying to gag the scientists of NASA from comments on the upcoming mega disaster, The Day After Tomorrow.  Today, a slightly repentant NASA waffles thusly: http://www.drudgereport.com/flash1.htm

New Subscribers:  I have a couple of new subscribers that have not been given access yet - I will get that set up today.  If you haven't gotten your "welcome aboard" email, send me a note by clicking here.  Thanks and sorry about the delay - mail and email issues from traveling about...

Monday

CEO Paychecks

Maybe it means firing tons of people, maybe it means offshoring, but the paychecks of CEO's in the US has rebounded seriously:  http://biz.yahoo.com/fo/ceo.html  Among other items, seems like the average increase was around 8 percent.  Not bad for a country that hasn't had any real job growth while our outsourcing frenzy has resulted in a 4 percent plus global growth spurt.

Don't Mention It

NASA is worried about public perceptions about the movie "Day After Tomorrow" which will open in theatres on May 28th.  In fact, they are so worried that they have issued a gag order to their scientists not to talk about it!  http://www.nytimes.com/2004/04/25/national/25MOVI.html?ei=5062&en=65acd27f8fbda409&ex=1083470400&partner=GOOGLE&pagewanted=print&position=

Not the "Lazy B"

The folks at Boeing who have survived the RIF's and pink slips who are left will no doubt breath easier.  Boeing has launched the 7E7 with a 40 plane order from All Nippon: http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/040426/transport_boeing_4.html

Fallujah:  Go or No Go?

If you listen to the coalition coverage of the war in Iraq, the President himself has made the decision not to launch an assault on Fallujah.  http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/3658523.stm.  But on the other side, Al Jazeera says a helicopter borne attack was carried out during the attempted truce: http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/83DD9200-265A-47D8-83E3-D9753608DCB4.htm

No word on casualties yet, but there was a powerful explosion in the northern part of Baghdad this morning: http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/F46C4050-2A98-4B24-A2FA-34DD31383826.htm

Meantime comes word that although the oil production was cut in half on a daily basis, the oil is flowing again from a key production facility in Iraq: http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGADMUHJITD.html

And, keep your eyes peeled for a major conflict around Najaf - could this be the one that the bots are warning about for the May 22 timeframe?  When Paul Bremer says a situation is explosive, you know it's got to be really bad: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/3657651.stm

EO: Earth Oddities - Landslides and Heat

There's a story out of Kyrgyzstan about a landslide that has killed more than 30: http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGA5VERJITD.html.  And, as I was driving in LA yesterday afternoon, the buzz under the media umbrella over Los Angeles was about the record heat.  The temps were 100+ in San Bernardino and environs.

Which gets me to mentioning that I'm now working out of Burbank while my consulting position develops.  Who knows, maybe we will become Angelinos next?  No telling with my career which hasn't taken a straight line since '83...

News from Elliott Wave International

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Write when you get rich - or sooner if you feel like it.

George Ure

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All contents (c) 1998-2003 by George A. Ure, MBA, except authors as linked or noted