|
Tony's Police
State
As we were afraid might be the
case, police in London have now confessed that the man shot dead
last week on the grounds he was a "terror suspect" turns out to
not have been a terrorist at all. A;; pf which has
convinced on reader to observe that Britain is now a police
state in everything but name:
Here is the situation: -
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4071968.stm
You can be shot in the street as a terrorist if you "look
suspicious".-
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/4712061.stm
We have more surveillance cameras per head of population
than any other country -
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/4710239.stm
You can have your passport taken off you and put under
house arrest if they "suspect" you of being a football
hooligan -
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/leicestershire/3801317.stm
You can be arrested and held without legal representation
for at least 7 days -
http://www.yourrights.org.uk/faqs/terrorism/arrest-under-the-terrorism-laws.shtml
You cannot even watch TV without obtaining a license
You can be arrested as a terrorist for speaking, if you
have deemed to have said something that promotes terrorism
You can have your face plastered all over the media as a
suspected terrorist and your life destroyed, even if you are
innocent -
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/4688501.stm
You can be stopped in your car for random breath testing
House arrest without trial -
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4303427.stm
If you have a screwdriver in your pocket, you can be
arrested on the street for "going equiped" to do burglary -
http://www.yourrights.org.uk/your-rights/chapters/the-rights-of-suspects/stop-and-search/index.shtml
For this the average person pays 60% of their wages in
various taxes
Your emails can be read without court order. Your phone
calls can be listened to without court orde r Your mail can
be intercepted, opened and examined without court order
The secret services are a law unto themselves, they do
what they like, as was evident in Northern Ireland. If you
look at Northern Ireland, you will see the model of what
they want the UK to become. Road blocks, check points and
troops on the streets. I think in five years we may even see
internment of "undesirables". Like in the US, there are
several concentration style camps mothballed just waiting
for their new guests. There's one a few miles from me in the
county of Lincolnshire.
George Orwell couldn't have put it better -
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/3388797.stm
Well done Mr Blair, keep up the good work.
Obviously I'm not going to put my name to this one, as it
is likely that GCHQ will flag this email.
We find ourselves in a deep Constitutional funk over
terrorism: We appreciate the need to contain the growing
terrorist movements, but at the same time we're also mindful
that British tyranny is what we cast off 229 years ago and
today's trends look like a totalitarian states more every day.
If we had a robust political [arty in opposition, we'd be
less afraid, but the Rove Republicans have used old National
Socialist "Big Lies" at every step of the way, including the
trumped up "reasons" for the Iraq War. While Hillary Clinton and
Howard Dean complain, we wonder why NYC police and firemen are
still under gag orders not to talk about explosions they
heard and how it is that
WTC-7 was demolished. How
many people have forgotten that at
least 4 of the alleged hijackers had surfaced and tried to
clear their names?
Although the "reality" of 9/11 has been effectively sold to
the American public, the Bush administration continues to grow
more concerned about the
grand jury which is investigating the Valerie Plame case.
"What's being covered up in the Plame-Rove case seems to revolve
around the Bush administration's orchestrated, and perhaps
illegal, propaganda campaign to justify its invasion of Iraq.
Valerie Plame and her husband, former Ambassador Joseph
Wilson—who wrote the op-ed in the New York Times that got this
whole thing going—are just the tips of very large icebergs, and
one of those icebergs has a name: the White House Iraq Group
(WHIG), which we'll examine below"
It's clear from these kinds of reports that the case has the
potential to get down to some of the high jinx that led to
America invading Iraq, a plan which has gone terribly wrong and
the
oil stubbornly refused to flow freely.
America is in a dangerously unbalanced state, the Democratic
party in ruins, and the Republicans are the ruling corporate
party. We see clear evidence of this as Republicans advance the
job-wrecking Central America Free Trade Agreement, which is as
much about sending the few remaining American manufacturing jobs
to places like Costa Rica, as
it is a smokescreen for multi-national pharmaceutical companies
to steal our rights to non-prescription vitamin and mineral
supplements. We find it masterful
deceit to package health, farming, and job theft into a
single piece of legislation now pending in the House. A
more honest approach by CONgress would be to adhere to the
concept single-purpose legislation. The present "tack a rider on
it" approach to lawmaking invites the kind of corporate interest
abuse that takes the short term view of profits over the
long-term goal of a functional democratic republic.
All this while the Mexico border leaks like a sieve and the
average family is reduced to wage serfdom conditions that would
make the industrial age British factory owner proud of our
12-hour days. But if you don't like it, just refinance your
house and buy a new car. Conspicuous consumption, prescription
only medications, and your papers always ready to prove
you are an American, that's the new paradigm.
Saturday
Not for the
Weak of Heart
This weekend, we explore the
possibility that the market could be setting up for a blow off
peak to new all time highs next spring. However, playing
this potential blow off could be like catching falling
knives. We explore the two competing theories at
www.peoplenomics.com
and look at implications for real estate and other investments.
Subscription
information by clicking here. This weekend's report
looks at the range of "best case" and "worst case" scenarios and
offers some insights into how to play it.
Plenty Hot
We notice that a
bunch of cities, such as
Las Vegas, are tying all-time heat records this week, while
at the same time, weather behavior around the world is
bothersome.
Even olives for that Martini could be impacted by some of
the weather in Europe. More important to American
consumers is what the present heat wave and
evolving drought will do to food production - something
which is starting to percolate up out of the farm belt.
Our colleagues over
at www.halfpasthuman.com,
where the web bot project lives, issued a warning more than a
month ago that the heat would be incredible this summer - just
as it's turning out to be. From the June 16 (ALTA905-1
Report):
"Our indications
are for a different sort of weather pattern to emerge
globally over the course of this summer and fall. We note
that the data indicates at the macro level that the 'usual'
movement of weather over North America is seen as 'reversing
direction of movement' or 'change of moment direction'. The
previous 'successful movement' is now seen as being
'blocked' by 'columns' which in turn are seen as supporting
a 'roof' of heat. Note that it would be also possible to
interpret this last as a 'roof' *over* 'heat'. In either
case, the 'columns' are seen as 'resting solid upon the
plains/planes/flat areas' such that a 'fence of poles' is
created which 'prevents/blocks movement'. The data suggests
that this 'fence' will act as a 'mountain' upon 'the spine'
of another 'mountain' such that 'no movement passes' and
'clouds/thunder build'. While the timeline of the progressed
model indicates that this 'fence of columns' forms in June,
or perhaps early July, there are also lunar associations
such as 'last quarter phase' and 'light leaves the face' {of
the moon}"
They're very modest
with the "I told you so's" but we lack their restraint. The
current data run is the 1105 series and you can get
subscription information here. Whether you see any
changes in the weather where you are located doesn't matter a
whit to us. We simply read the daily records being set -
day after day - and notice that a
sixth named tropical storm (Franklin) is now meandering about
the Atlantic and conclude rather confidently that things are
not the same as they used to be.
Add to the potential
climate nightmare the
idea that the Gulf Stream is shutting down because of climate
change, and a few snips from the data reads about the
Humboldt current and you have the potential for catastrophic
climate collapse. Food doesn't grow once earth
temperatures get past 122 degrees or so.
We continue to be
amazed that the Bush administration has kept its collective head
in the sand over air quality and other drivers of change, a
malaise shared by many in CONgress who keep their hands out
to special interests while the disaster buildings.
To say it again, we
don't care whether you believe in climate change. The odds
are pretty good that we will enter into a period of more extreme
oscillations - both cold and heat. But the reality of
climate change is that when people start to go hungry from it,
economic reactions will be severe and perhaps permanent.
You can't eat Federal Reserve (debt) notes.
Yuan More
Thing
Yes, there are tons
of emails coming in about the revaluation this week of the
Chinese Yuan. Here's a typical one:
hi George You may want to read this (contrarian, possibly
similar to your) view about the Chinese revaluing their
currency. I know you probably get LOTS of emails a day, but
this link's worth reading
http://www.forbes.com/newsletter/2005/07/22/china-yuan-revaluation-housing-cz_jr_0722soapbox_inl.html
Reader Note
Yes, there's a bit of
code stuck somewhere in this week's report that makes you need
to scroll the browser - if you don't have 1024X768 display going
- I will get it stripped out for Monday - sorry about any
inconvenience.
Friday
Search, Seize,
Shoot
This morning we find ourselves just
amazed at how the London Bombings of the 7th have managed to
spin into something bigger than life. Not that 50-odd
people losing their lives is anything to trivialize - it is not.
But then again, we have reaction - and still no conclusive proof
that it wasn't a false flag operation designed to bring world
attention away from the G-8 meeting and refocus it on the
permanent war for permanent peace, which is keeping the economy
going. That said, the markets are reported read to
open down a tad this morning on
word of a
bombing suspect being shot in England.
While it will be interesting to
learn if the man was a suicide bomber on his way to a mission,
or whether he was just a lone nutjob, we are concerned, as are
our readers, about the sudden increase in police searches here
in the US. As one reader writes:
"Hi George, just a line of thought.....
In the article about NY police conducting random searches
in the subway system...Police Commissioner Raymond Kelly had
announced the legally obvious—that New Yorkers are free to
decline a search and "turn around and leave."
http://www.villagevoice.com/news/0530,weblee,66189,5.html
Soon enough it will be this way for any mass transit
system that many depend upon for transportation, especially
to and from work.
Eventually you will have to produce ID on demand, then
you will have to produce ID as part of standard boarding
procedure. Your papers bitte.
Of course you are still free to decline and turn around
and leave!
After that it will be expanded so that you will have to
produce ID for food, clothing and housing. Your papers bitte.
Of course you are still free to decline and turn around
and leave!"
And that's the difficulty of making
laws in this environment - on the one hand, the powers that be
have an obligation to provide for safety for the general public,
but at the same time, in order to get there, issues like mass
searches come up. What makes terrorism such a highly leveraged
form of warfare is that it forces the target country to lessen
its freedoms and thus, becomes more like what its opponents
claim in the first place. It's a conundrum of unimaginable
scale. But no mistake about governmental responses - it's
a matter of pile on and push new laws through -
such as is the case in Italy today. And, the
republican dominated CONgress keeps pushing through Patriot Act
restrictions.
Leaky Borders
As we have mentioned to you on
numerous occasions, the people we elected to represent our
interests in Washington have done an abysmal job of closing our
leaking border with Mexico. Although the Homeland Security
folks have had some discussions with the Minutemen, who are the
real deal patriots in all this, the word out today is that it
was just media smoke and mirrors - and the
administration has no intention of doing its legally required
job of sealing the border. So, if an when we ever end up
with a weapon of mass destruction on American soil, I'm asking
you in advance NOT to blame the hard working men and women of
the US Border Patrol, but take the problem back to the people in
Washington who have their hands out to corporate interests
pimping cheap illegal labor, and lay the problem where it
belongs, there and at the feet of the "borderless" promoters at
the Council on Foreign Relations. Who needs treason when we have
corporate "special" interests?
As if to make the case,
we find George Bush out pimping CAFTA as a "jobs program"
instead of calling it what it really is: The treasonous theft of
American worker's jobs and deflationary pressure on American
wages through third world labor practices. As luck would
have it, he will likely be successful because he is not selling
the hoax to rational voters who end up unemployed, downsized, or
jobjacked: He's selling the idea to the corporatists who
benefit. Tough sell, huh?
In case you have forgotten, I'm a
great believer in Free Trade, except that what I'm in favor of
involves equal labor rates - not this crap where one worker gets
a dollar, and another worker gets 2¢ for the same labor.
That's not free trade - in my book that's
corporate exploitation and I see George Bush hasn't figured
that out.
Yuan Thing
Leads To Another
And that "other" in the view of our
fractal fundamentalist, G. Lammert, is an important crossroads
for the markets which we see in our less sophisticated chart
work as well:
"George, by simple fractal analysis, the major indices
are at a very critical juncture. If they break down
significantly over the next 1-4 trading days including a
nonlinear lower gap, there is paradoxically a reasonable
chance of a later 'rotational' blow-off period of 21-42
days. On the other hand, if the major indices maintain their
valuations and increase over the next 2-13 days, the run to
the March 2000's secondary equity top will likely be
completed.
Under the contracting weekly fractal umbrella of 22/54/50
of 44-54 the two predominant alternative daily fractal high
probabilities from August 2004 for the equities are covered
in a terminal x-2x daily timeframe of 51-52/129-130/x-2x:
First scenario: x-2x = a daily fractal sequence of
12/31/18 of a possible 20-31 days. 1.62 times 12 =20 days
rounded. 31 days = 2.5 x. Under this scenario the valuations
would continue laterally and higher reaching the range of
20-31 days before beginning the decay cycle fractals. A
terminal final trading gap in the major indices may serve as
a final exclamation point and hallmark of a concluding
growth sequence with the trading pinnacle represented by a
macroeconomic saturation gap exhaustion key reversal day.
The DAX came close to the character of such a trading day
yesterday.
Second scenario: The second scenario involves a sudden
drop in the Wilshire by 5 or percent in the next few trading
days and a later 21-42 day blow off period during which
American real estate properties plateau. The cresting money
receipts for the last few musical housing chairs are
'rotated' out of potential flipped speculative investment
properties and purchased new undeveloped land into the
terminal portion of rapidly growing blow-off equities - much
like what has been occurring in Britain during the last two
months. The breakdown of this potential fractal sequence is
21/53/21-42 where ten days are shared between the terminal
portion of the second 130 day fractal sequence and 21 days
of a potential first base of the third and final 103 day
fractal. Note the total number of days of this hypothetical
final fractal sequence would be 103-104 which matches the
third daily fractal sequence of 51-52/130/103-104.
The second sub fractal sequence of the second scenario is
53 days in length (21/53/42). The current breakdown of the
potential 53 day second cycle is 9/23/18(July21) x/2.5x/2x
of ??23. As cited in the above paragraph, if a breakdown
does occur in the next few days, top real estate transacted
saturation money received by developers and real estate
agents from a plateauing housing market may be diverted to a
final blow-off in equities rather than reinvested in land
speculation and development.
The trading valuations over the next few days will
contain the directional information needed to predict the
intermediate pathway to an equity valuation saturation peak.
This saturation point will mark the start of the inevitable
self correction that will deflate lofty asset overvaluations
and align them with the ongoing inflation and
after-interest-payment-adjusted diminishing wages. G.
Lammert
http://www.economicfractalist.com/"
NK Offer
We're pleased to
report that North Korea has
offered to end its nuclear weapons program if the West will sign
a permanent peace agreement to replace the armistice which
was signed in 1953. Unfortunately, as with all such offers
in the past, we expect this one will include an unacceptable
number of strings attached, but at least the talk is ongoing.
Chavez Still
Target
Anyone with a high
school education, or better, knows that the US is desperate to
get rid of freely elected president Chavez in Venezuela.
The reason? He is not towing the US line on oil - and as a
result Chavez claims US forces are working darkly to
sabotage his government through any number of means, including
electronically. His reaction? he will out the US
backed efforts at every turn. One guy holding out against
US corporate interests? Why the audacity of it! Our
SUV's demand action!
Alphabet
Storms
If you are keeping
track, we're up to "F" as the named tropical storms and
hurricanes continue to
march across the Atlantic. Emily,
is about blown out.
Stories of the
Day
Why are we not
surprised to learn that Karl Rove and Scooter Libby
have a different version of the CIA agent naming case that the
reporters involved have reportedly presented to the grand
jury? From what little reliable coverage there is, this is
sounding more and more like a "he said, she said" finger
pointing exercise. Now if the Grand Jury would just get
down to issuing perjury indictments and get on with it...
Quest for
the Perfect Antenna
I received an email
back from my ham radio colleague of 40-odd years who has been
working with me on antennas since we carried a 40 foot piece of
irrigation pipe on our shoulders on a 12-mile hike in order to
build the "perfect vertical." You may recall that earlier
this week, I posed a question about right-angle
wire arrays...along with a folded loop question and here's
the partial answer:
"George, I fired up AO last night for the first time in 5
years and modeled the cross-field antenna you sketched out
in your previous e-mail (i.e. full wavelength square loop
fed at lower corner, and folded 90 degrees around a diagonal
axis). The results weren't too impressive.
The pattern is similar to that of a full-wave delta loop
except that it has less directionality. "Forward" gain is on
the order of 5 dBi and the 3-D model of the radiation
pattern looks like a stubby jelly bean with the length only
slightly greater than the diameter. The only unusual thing I
noticed was that to hit resonance on 20 meters, I had to
increase the length of the antenna to 80 feet rather than
the expected 66 feet or so.
I'll take some screen shots of the physical appearance of
the wire model and associated radiation pattern this weekend
and send them to you. It's possible that my wire model is
different than what you had in mind, so the screen shots
will allow you to confirm that I got it right. As an aside,
folding the loop on its diagonal axis and then figuring out
the coordinates of the one point that moves is an
interesting exercise in spatial relations and trig after a
13 hour work-day. I actually wound up cutting, folding, &
staring at a square of paper so I could figure out how to
calculate the point coordinates. I was doing this in the
family room which resulted in some very peculiar looks form
the wife and daughter units."
The fun of ham radio is to use antenna modeling software to
try and beat the laws of physical - which we haven't do to any
great extent, but that's one of the delights of the hobby -
seeing how far you can push the limits.
Peoplenomics
This week we explore
the impact on market stability of multiple layers of
dependency-linked financial markets. Specifically, the
addition of ETF's to the modern market stability question is
viewed as a nautical design problem. Specifically, we
address whether additional linked vehicles, to use nautical
architecture terms, increase initial stability but might
at the same time substantially reduce ultimate stability.
Click here if you're a subscriber, or here if you want
subscription
information.
If you you have a
chance, drop by our bookstore at
www.peoplenomics.com/bookstore.htm.
The Pony Express
rider got through with some subscriptions this weekend, so I
should have those all up by Wednesday or so. If you
haven't gotten your logon by Thursday, send me an email and
we'll see what's gone astray. Usually, the problem is
people change their email address and don't update their PayPal
account - so if you do ever change emails, make sure to change
all your service contact info around.
Be sure and wander
around our
bookstore if you get time. Titles like "For Sale by Owner
Coach" and "How to Live on Less than $10,000 a Year" if you're
interested.
Thursday
China Revalues
Yuan
The Chinese today
have
revalued the Yuan effective from last night. The effect is a
2.1% increase in the value of the Yuan. This
means goods made in
China will cost a bit more in the US and the
pricing of US goods sold to China (such as jetliners) will drop.
One of the immediate concerns is what this will do to
Chinese purchases of US Treasuries. Because the Yuan
is floating against a market basket of currencies instead of
being strictly pegged to the dollar, there could be a short term
trading impact. We also see the price of gold is up today.
We will be
watching Wal-Mart today because they are such big customers
of China, but the moves from this should be fairly contained as
this has been anticipated by everyone and his cousin for a long
time. (We managed to write it backwards before the coffee
kicked in)
Employee
Discounts
We've been watching
Lee Iacocca do is new "employee discount" ads for Chrysler, as
both Ford and GM has been benefiting from the so-called
"employee discount" advertising blitz. We mention this
because such ad campaigns have a ripple effect. When auto sales
take a momentary spike up, as they have with these ads,
there is an improvement in the short term auto industry layoff
picture, which is reflected in part in today's much improved
unemployment numbers. Stepping back even a bit further, we
see continued pressure on the auto makers to follow the ground
breaking approach of Saturn in how they compensate sales persons
in order to hold down costs. Time will tell...
Future of
Crops
The weather here in
Southern California has been a tad on the odd side - yesterday,
for example, we had 100+ temperatures coupled with massive
thunderclouds and scattered sprinkles. Today is looking like
more of the same. If you look at a
heat map,
you'll find that much of the country is having heat to the
degree that crops could be damaged in some areas.
Depending on area,
the crop outlook is not dire - yet - but the farmers are
beginning to voice some concern and soy (and others)
enter a critical period. Even more interesting to us
has been the spread of the weather.
While some parts of the
Midwest are exceptionally dry, parts of the South, such as
Georgia have been
suffering from too much rain.
Record heat in Colorado, but not much impact of agriculture
there.
The same kind of
picture develops globally, too: In
Eastern Europe and Australia some areas are getting enough
rain to damage crops
while other areas not too far distant are experiencing drought.
Life to Follow
TV?
The made for
television movie, Oil Storm I think it was, begins with a
revolution in Saudi Arabia that sets of an interruption in the
world's oil supplies, and from there things just tumble down
hill until the US finds itself in a complete energy pickle.
Not that it has followed the TV plot-line so far, but we read
with interest when the
US issues warnings about problems to come in Saudi Arabia
where the maneuvering to succeed King Fahd is gearing up among
competing factions of the royal family.
Frozen Bird
Flu
Not that we eat
frozen duck, but if we did, we would sure be looking for a
substitute of some kind now that
bird flu has been identified in frozen duck meat sold in
Japan.
Pakistan
Destabilizing
Yes, the prospect of
peace talks between India and Pakistan has in the short term
lessened the threat of nuclear conflict between the two
countries, but not for long. As you may know from
following the headlines, there has been rising violence in
Kashmir and now India says if
that continues, peace talks could be jeopardized.
Speaking of this
region, we see a tie-in to the recent London bombings firming up
with a British report that one of the bombers was a
partisan in the Pakistan conflict who admired Osama bin Laden.
Although when we read such reports, we take them with one or two
grains of salt because they almost fit too neatly into
the cloth of daily news coverage.
Another Silver
Nod
A hawk-eyed reader
sent in his latest consumer product observation, as we see a
growing number of products for consumers that are using
silver for various antibacterial functions. His email:
"Peter Lynch has said that some of the best investments
he has ever made have been consumer products that his family
has found. L'eggs, for instance.
So, I'm opening a bunch of mail, and I come across an
Office Depot "Visit the New Local Store" package. I open it
up, and there is a 25% off coupon for "PaperMate FlexGrip
Elite" pens with "Anti-Bacterial Pen Protection".
Looking at the company's website, I find the following:
http://www.sanfordcorp.com/sanford/consumer/jhtml/aboutus/sanford_about_us_27.jhtml?archive=L&priority=9048
"The anti-bacterial additive is EPA registered and
designed to protect the pen's surface from harmful bacteria.
Microbes on untreated surfaces reproduce and continue
reproducing, causing foul odors, discoloration, corrosion
and product deterioration."
"This is cool", I think, but my real suspicion (and
excitement) are confirmed by the next sentence.
"The silver ions used on the surface of FlexGrip Elite
pen inhibit the growth of these product-damaging microbes
and protect the pen's surface."
Sounds like another
reason to buy silver, but as I constantly remind you, that's not
a recommendation, just a report on what E and I actually buy.
Our physical silver holdings are very small (500 oz) but it's a
start and we will add to it over time, especially if prices
continue in the $7 range for a while.
Wednesday
Greenspan
More rate hikes
coming? Sounds like it to us:
Testimony of Chairman Alan Greenspan Federal Reserve
Board's semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress
Before the Committee on Financial Services, U.S. House of
Representatives July 20, 2005
Mr. Chairman and members of the Committee, I am pleased
to be here today to present the Federal Reserve's Monetary
Policy Report to the Congress.
In mid-February, when I presented our last report to the
Congress, the economy, supported by strong underlying
fundamentals, appeared to be on a solid growth path, and
those circumstances prevailed through March. Accordingly,
the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) continued the
process of a measured removal of monetary accommodation,
which it had begun in June 2004, by raising the federal
funds rate 1/4 percentage point at both the February and the
March meetings.
The upbeat picture became cloudier this spring, when data
on economic activity proved to be weaker than most market
participants had anticipated and inflation moved up in
response to the jump in world oil prices. By the time of the
May FOMC meeting, some evidence suggested that the economy
might have been entering a soft patch reminiscent of the
middle of last year, perhaps as a result of higher energy
costs worldwide. In particular, employment gains had slowed
from the strong pace of the end of 2004, consumer sentiment
had weakened, and the momentum in household and business
spending appeared to have dissipated somewhat.
At the May meeting, the Committee had to weigh the extent
to which this weakness was likely to be temporary--perhaps
simply the product of the normal ebb and flow of a business
expansion--and the extent to which it reflected some
influence that might prove more persistent, such as the
further run-up in crude oil prices. While the incoming data
highlighted some downside risks to the outlook for economic
growth, the FOMC judged the balance of information as
suggesting that the economy had not weakened fundamentally.
Moreover, core inflation had moved higher again through
the first quarter. The rising prices of energy and other
commodities continued to place upward pressures on costs,
and reports of greater pricing power of firms indicated that
they might be more able to pass those higher costs on to
their customers. Given these considerations, the Committee
continued the process of gradually removing monetary
accommodation in May.
The data released over the past two months or so accord
with the view that the earlier soft readings on the economy
were not presaging a more serious slowdown in the pace of
activity. Employment has remained on an upward trend, retail
spending has posted appreciable gains, inventory levels are
modest, and business investment appears to have firmed. At
the same time, low long-term interest rates have continued
to provide a lift to housing activity. Although both overall
and core consumer price inflation have eased of late, the
prices of oil and natural gas have moved up again on balance
since May and are likely to place some upward pressure on
consumer prices, at least over the near term. Slack in labor
and product markets has continued to decline. In light of
these developments, the FOMC raised the federal funds rate
at its June meeting to further reduce monetary policy
accommodation. That action brought the cumulative increase
in the funds rate over the past year to 2-1/4 percentage
points.
Should the prices of crude oil and natural gas flatten
out after their recent run-up--the forecast currently
embedded in futures markets--the prospects for aggregate
demand appear favorable. Household spending--buoyed by past
gains in wealth, ongoing increases in employment and income,
and relatively low interest rates--is likely to continue to
expand. Business investment in equipment and software seems
to be on a solid upward trajectory in response to supportive
conditions in financial markets and the ongoing need to
replace or upgrade aging high-tech and other equipment.
Moreover, some recovery in nonresidential construction
appears in the offing, spurred partly by lower vacancy rates
and rising prices for commercial properties. However, given
the comparatively less buoyant growth of many foreign
economies and the recent increase in the foreign exchange
value of the dollar, our external sector does not yet seem
poised to contribute steadily to U.S. growth.
A flattening out of the prices of crude oil and natural
gas, were it to materialize, would also lessen upward
pressures on inflation. Overall inflation would probably
drop back noticeably from the rates experienced in 2004 and
early 2005, and core inflation could hold steady or edge
lower. Prices of crude materials and intermediate goods have
softened of late, and the slower rise in import prices that
should result from the recent strength in the foreign
exchange value of the dollar could also relieve some
pressure on inflation.
Thus, our baseline outlook for the U.S. economy is one of
sustained economic growth and contained inflation pressures.
In our view, realizing this outcome will require the Federal
Reserve to continue to remove monetary accommodation. This
generally favorable outlook, however, is attended by some
significant uncertainties that warrant careful scrutiny.
With regard to the outlook for inflation, future price
performance will be influenced importantly by the trend in
unit labor costs, or its equivalent, the ratio of hourly
labor compensation to output per hour. Over most of the past
several years, the behavior of unit labor costs has been
quite subdued. But those costs have turned up of late, and
whether the favorable trends of the past few years will be
maintained is unclear. Hourly labor compensation as measured
from the national income and product accounts increased
sharply near the end of 2004. However, that measure appears
to have been boosted significantly by temporary factors.
Other broad measures suggest that hourly labor compensation
continues to rise at a moderate rate.
The evolution of unit labor costs will also reflect the
growth of output per hour. Over the past decade, the U.S.
economy has benefited from a remarkable acceleration of
productivity: Strong gains in efficiency have buoyed real
incomes and restrained inflation. But experience suggests
that such rapid advances are unlikely to be maintained in an
economy that has reached the cutting edge of technology.
Over the past two years, growth in output per hour seems to
have moved off the peak that it reached in 2003. However,
the cause, extent, and duration of that slowdown are not yet
clear. The traditional measure of the growth in output per
hour, which is based on output as measured from the product
side of the national accounts, has slowed sharply in recent
quarters. But a conceptually equivalent measure that uses
output measured from the income side has slowed far less.
Given the divergence between these two readings, a
reasonably accurate determination of the extent of the
recent slowing in productivity growth and its parsing into
cyclical and secular influences will require the
accumulation of more evidence.
Energy prices represent a second major uncertainty in the
economic outlook. A further rise could cut materially into
private spending and thus damp the rate of economic
expansion. In recent weeks, spot prices for crude oil and
natural gas have been both high and volatile. Prices for
far-future delivery of oil and gas have risen even more
markedly than spot prices over the past year. Apparently,
market participants now see little prospect of appreciable
relief from elevated energy prices for years to come. Global
demand for energy apparently is expected to remain strong,
and market participants are evidencing increased concerns
about the potential for supply disruptions in various
oil-producing regions.
To be sure, the capacity to tap and utilize the world's
supply of oil continues to expand. Major advances in
recovery rates from existing reservoirs have enhanced proved
reserves despite ever fewer discoveries of major oil fields.
But, going forward, because of the geographic location of
proved reserves, the great majority of the investment
required to convert reserves into new crude oil productive
capacity will need to be made in countries where foreign
investment is currently prohibited or restricted or faces
considerable political risk. Moreover, the preponderance of
oil and gas revenues of the dominant national oil companies
is perceived as necessary to meet the domestic needs of
growing populations. These factors have the potential to
constrain the ability of producers to expand capacity to
keep up with the projected growth of world demand, which has
been propelled to an unexpected extent by burgeoning demand
in emerging Asia.
More favorably, the current and prospective expansion of
U.S. capability to import liquefied natural gas will help
ease longer-term natural gas stringencies and perhaps bring
natural gas prices in the United States down to world
levels.
The third major uncertainty in the economic outlook
relates to the behavior of long-term interest rates. The
yield on ten-year Treasury notes, currently near 4-1/4
percent, is about 50 basis points below its level of late
spring 2004. Moreover, even after the recent widening of
credit risk spreads, yields for both investment-grade and
less-than-investment-grade corporate bonds have declined
even more than those on Treasury notes over the same period.
This decline in long-term rates has occurred against the
backdrop of generally firm U.S. economic growth, a continued
boost to inflation from higher energy prices, and fiscal
pressures associated with the fast approaching retirement of
the baby-boom generation.1 The drop in long-term rates is
especially surprising given the increase in the federal
funds rate over the same period. Such a pattern is clearly
without precedent in our recent experience.
The unusual behavior of long-term interest rates first
became apparent last year. In May and June of 2004, with a
tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve widely
expected, market participants built large short positions in
long-term debt instruments in anticipation of the increase
in bond yields that has been historically associated with an
initial rise in the federal funds rate. Accordingly, yields
on ten-year Treasury notes rose during the spring of last
year about 1 percentage point. But by summer, pressures
emerged in the marketplace that drove long-term rates back
down. In March of this year, long-term rates once again
began to rise, but like last year, market forces came into
play to make those increases short lived.
Considerable debate remains among analysts as to the
nature of those market forces. Whatever those forces are,
they are surely global, because the decline in long-term
interest rates in the past year is even more pronounced in
major foreign financial markets than in the United States.
Two distinct but overlapping developments appear to be at
work: a longer-term trend decline in bond yields and an
acceleration of that trend of late. Both developments are
particularly evident in the interest rate applying to the
one-year period ending ten years from today that can be
inferred from the U.S. Treasury yield curve. In 1994, that
so-called forward rate exceeded 8 percent. By mid-2004, it
had declined to about 6-1/2 percent--an easing of about 15
basis points per year on average.2 Over the past year, that
drop steepened, and the forward rate fell 130 basis points
to less than 5 percent.
Some, but not all, of the decade-long trend decline in
that forward yield can be ascribed to expectations of lower
inflation, a reduced risk premium resulting from less
inflation volatility, and a smaller real term premium that
seems due to a moderation of the business cycle over the
past few decades.3 This decline in inflation expectations
and risk premiums is a signal development. As I noted in my
testimony before this Committee in February, the effective
productive capacity of the global economy has substantially
increased, in part because of the breakup of the Soviet
Union and the integration of China and India into the global
marketplace. And this increase in capacity, in turn, has
doubtless contributed to expectations of lower inflation and
lower inflation-risk premiums.
In addition to these factors, the trend reduction
worldwide in long-term yields surely reflects an excess of
intended saving over intended investment. This configuration
is equivalent to an excess of the supply of funds relative
to the demand for investment. What is unclear is whether the
excess is due to a glut of saving or a shortfall of
investment. Because intended capital investment is to some
extent driven by forces independent of those governing
intended saving, the gap between intended saving and
investment can be quite wide and variable. It is real
interest rates that bring actual capital investment
worldwide and its means of financing, global saving, into
equality. We can directly observe only the actual flows, not
the saving and investment tendencies. Nonetheless, as best
we can judge, both high levels of intended saving and low
levels of intended investment have combined to lower real
long-term interest rates over the past decade.
Since the mid-1990s, a significant increase in the share
of world gross domestic product (GDP) produced by economies
with persistently above-average saving--prominently the
emerging economies of Asia--has put upward pressure on world
saving. These pressures have been supplemented by shifts in
income toward the oil-exporting countries, which more
recently have built surpluses because of steep increases in
oil prices. The changes in shares of world GDP, however,
have had little effect on actual world capital investment as
a percentage of GDP. The fact that investment as a
percentage of GDP apparently changed little when real
interest rates were falling, even adjusting for the shift in
the shares of world GDP, suggests that, on average,
countries' investment propensities had been declining.4
Softness in intended investment is also evident in
corporate behavior. Although corporate capital investment in
the major industrial countries rose in recent years, it
apparently failed to match increases in corporate cash
flow.5 In the United States, for example, capital
expenditures were below the very substantial level of
corporate cash flow in 2003, the first shortfall since the
severe recession of 1975. That development was likely a
result of the business caution that was apparent in the wake
of the stock market decline and the corporate scandals early
this decade. (Capital investment in the United States has
only recently shown signs of shedding at least some of that
caution.) Japanese investment exhibited prolonged restraint
following the bursting of their speculative bubble in the
early 1990s. And investment in emerging Asia excluding China
fell appreciably after the Asian financial crisis in the
late 1990s. Moreover, only a modest part of the large
revenue surpluses of oil-producing nations has been
reinvested in physical assets. In fact, capital investment
in the Middle East in 2004, at 25 percent of the region's
GDP, was the same as in 1998. National saving, however, rose
from 21 percent to 32 percent of GDP. The unused saving of
this region was invested in world markets.
Whether the excess of global intended saving over
intended investment has been caused by weak investment or
excessive saving--that is, by weak consumption--or, more
likely, a combination of both does not much affect the
intermediate-term outlook for world GDP or, for that matter,
U.S. monetary policy. What have mattered in recent years are
the sign and the size of the gap of intentions and the
implications for interest rates, not whether the gap results
from a saving glut or an investment shortfall. That said,
saving and investment propensities do matter over the longer
run. Higher levels of investment relative to consumption
build up the capital stock and thus add to the productive
potential of an economy.
The economic forces driving the global saving-investment
balance have been unfolding over the course of the past
decade, so the steepness of the recent decline in long-term
dollar yields and the associated distant forward rates
suggests that something more may have been at work over the
past year.6 Inflation premiums in forward rates ten years
ahead have apparently continued to decline, but real yields
have also fallen markedly over the past year. It is possible
that the factors that have tended to depress real yields
over the past decade have accelerated recently, though that
notion seems implausible.
According to estimates prepared by the Federal Reserve
Board staff, a significant portion of the sharp decline in
the ten-year forward one-year rate over the past year
appears to have resulted from a fall in term premiums. Such
estimates are subject to considerable uncertainty.
Nevertheless, they suggest that risk takers have been
encouraged by a perceived increase in economic stability to
reach out to more distant time horizons. These actions have
been accompanied by significant declines in measures of
expected volatility in equity and credit markets inferred
from prices of stock and bond options and narrow credit risk
premiums. History cautions that long periods of relative
stability often engender unrealistic expectations of its
permanence and, at times, may lead to financial excess and
economic stress.
Such perceptions, many observers believe, are
contributing to the boom in home prices and creating some
associated risks. And, certainly, the exceptionally low
interest rates on ten-year Treasury notes, and hence on home
mortgages, have been a major factor in the recent surge of
homebuilding, home turnover, and particularly in the steep
climb in home prices. Whether home prices on average for the
nation as a whole are overvalued relative to underlying
determinants is difficult to ascertain, but there do appear
to be, at a minimum, signs of froth in some local markets
where home prices seem to have risen to unsustainable
levels. Among other indicators, the significant rise in
purchases of homes for investment since 2001 seems to have
charged some regional markets with speculative fervor.
The apparent froth in housing markets appears to have
interacted with evolving practices in mortgage markets. The
increase in the prevalence of interest-only loans and the
introduction of more-exotic forms of adjustable-rate
mortgages are developments of particular concern. To be
sure, these financing vehicles have their appropriate uses.
But some households may be employing these instruments to
purchase homes that would otherwise be unaffordable, and
consequently their use could be adding to pressures in the
housing market. Moreover, these contracts may leave some
mortgagors vulnerable to adverse events. It is important
that lenders fully appreciate the risk that some households
may have trouble meeting monthly payments as interest rates
and the macroeconomic climate change.
The U.S. economy has weathered such episodes before
without experiencing significant declines in the national
average level of home prices. Nevertheless, we certainly
cannot rule out declines in home prices, especially in some
local markets. If declines were to occur, they likely would
be accompanied by some economic stress, though the
macroeconomic implications need not be substantial.
Nationwide banking and widespread securitization of
mortgages make financial intermediation less likely to be
impaired than it was in some previous episodes of regional
house-price correction. Moreover, a decline in the national
housing price level would need to be substantial to trigger
a significant rise in foreclosures, because the vast
majority of homeowners have built up substantial equity in
their homes despite large mortgage-market-financed
withdrawals of home equity in recent years.
Historically, it has been rising real long-term interest
rates that have restrained the pace of residential building
and have suppressed existing home sales, high levels of
which have been the major contributor to the home equity
extraction that arguably has financed a noticeable share of
personal consumption expenditures and home modernization
outlays.
The trend of mortgage rates, or long-term interest rates
more generally, is likely to be influenced importantly by
the worldwide evolution of intended saving and intended
investment. We at the Federal Reserve will be closely
monitoring the path of this global development few, if any,
have previously experienced. As I indicated earlier, the
capital investment climate in the United States appears to
be improving following significant headwinds since late
2000, as is that in Japan. Capital investment in Europe,
however, remains tepid. A broad worldwide expansion of
capital investment not offset by a rising worldwide
propensity to save would presumably move real long-term
interest rates higher. Moreover, with term premiums at
historical lows, further downward pressure on long-term
rates from this source is unlikely.
* * *
We collectively confront many risks beyond those that I
have just mentioned. As was tragically evidenced again by
the bombings in London earlier this month, terrorism and
geopolitical risk have become enduring features of the
global landscape. Another prominent concern is the growing
evidence of anti-globalization sentiment and protectionist
initiatives, which, if implemented, would significantly
threaten the flexibility and resilience of many economies.
This situation is especially troubling for the United
States, where openness and flexibility have allowed us to
absorb a succession of large shocks in recent years with
only minimal economic disruption. That flexibility is, in
large measure, a testament to the industry and
resourcefulness of our workers and businesses. But our
success in this dimension has also been aided importantly by
more than two and a half decades of bipartisan effort aimed
at reducing unnecessary regulation and promoting the
openness of our market economy. Going forward, policymakers
will need to be vigilant to preserve this flexibility, which
has contributed so constructively to our economic
performance in recent years.
In conclusion, Mr. Chairman, despite the challenges that
I have highlighted and the many I have not, the U.S. economy
has remained on a firm footing, and inflation continues to
be well contained. Moreover, the prospects are favorable for
a continuation of those trends. Accordingly, the Federal
Open Market Committee in its June meeting reaffirmed that it
". . . believes that policy accommodation can be removed
at a pace that is likely to be measured. Nonetheless, the
Committee will respond to changes in economic prospects as
needed to fulfill its obligation to maintain price
stability."
Why Count
Iraqis?
We notice this
morning that someone has finally gotten around to estimating the
number of civilian dead from Bush's war in Iraq.
The
number? About 25,000. Other reports had put the number
closer to 100,000 dead, but the war promoters disputed that.
So now, a "non government" group has this one to promote. Not
that it matters as the administration clearly has no exit plan
and every time Don Rumsfeld fields the question of an American
departure he goes into a kind of mumblespeak that numbs the
mind, which we assume is intentional.
Supreme Court
The president's
appointee to the Supreme Court was unveiled last night - John G.
Roberts from the DC federal court. Reaction?
It's confusing to a lot of the professional spectators.
Obviously, this is not what women's groups wanted, but on the
other hand, if this candidate can say he would have voted
against eminent domain, maybe he is our guy... time will tell as
the hearings ramp up.
Westmoreland
Dead
At age 91. Regardless of your opinions about his
involvement in the Vietnam conflict, he was an unswerving
patriot who served his country with distinction and deserves our
profound thanks.
Another Big
Layof
We're only a few days ahead of the
government's release of the latest mass layoff report, but at
the rate the past couple of days, things are turning around and
heading down for working people again. Yesterday we
mentioned a layoff of 14,500 to you.
This morning, we're sad to report that
Kodak will be laying off and additional 10,000.
This continues to be the effect of
"productivity" in the workplace I guess. And in economic
terms, it goes something like this: If sales are flat and
the number of total product units consumed is flat and
productivity goes up then the number of persons employed
must go down. However, it's not a pretty thing when
it happens and the national media, with a few exceptions hasn't
got the brains God gave chickens to ask questions like "So, what
is the optimum increase in productivity that will slow the rate
of layoffs?" It's just too much common sense to be asked
at a news conference of talking heads.
The Not Well
Hidden Agenda
We continue to be amazed, that with
the exceptions like Lou Dobbs, Phyllis Schlafly and John Crudele,
that majority of journalists at the national level are selling
out their country (or their editors are behind their backs) by
ignoring stories like the government/big business pressure
groups such as the Council on Foreign Relations which is pushing
ahead with its agenda to tear down the borders that once
surrounded America. In particular, the report "Building
a North American Community" smacks of corporatist wet
dreams for a set of "open borders" that will allow unrestricted
imperialism of poverty into America's Heartland.
When I read "open borders" I read
unfair job competition, downward wage pressure on American
tradespersons, corporatists playing the wage differentials for
their phony version of "profits" which will include lots of
drugs, illegal immigration, and discourage the single language
melting pot that has made America great and capable of
assimilating other cultures in the past. Yeah, this is
crap, in our book. But when people with money take on the
Constitution, it's not a fair match up anymore, it is?
Just look at what corporate interests just did to us on eminent
domain, if you please.
In Washington, there is talk about
a "guest worker" bill, but the ones we are reading about now,
such as the
Kyl bill, read like another dream and sound tough to implement
and enforce.
China's Money
Although China's national oil
company had made a big noise about trying to buy Unocal for
$18.5 billion, the
Unocal Board is going with a lesser $17 billion bid from Condi
Rice's cohorts over at Chevron Texaco. We don't expect
this will be the last of the discussion, though. We look
for China to come back with more money, after all, we're the
source of it, us US consumers. China effectively has all
the money in the world to spend if they wish to and we're
printing it up for them.
While this is going on, China is
also firming up her military with a report today of how military
hardware is being added at a faster than ever clip. Again,
this is no surprise and shouldn't worry American policy makers.
After all, if Bill Clinton OK'd their purchases of super
computers, and we just keep getting more dependent on Chinese
goods, this must be a good thing, right?
The key learning point of US trade
relations with China is that a country can take on the US and
get just about anything they want if they just put enough dollar
signs in front of corporatist leaders. The corporation folks -
as evident in the CFR report linked above - clearly don't care
about equal wages or equal rights or equal anything.
The only reason that "fair trade" works as a mantra is
that fair trade isn't "fair."
The machinist in Singapore does not
make what the machinist in Wisconsin makes. Yet ignoring
the purchasing power parity reality of the world is
precisely what has given Globalism/corporatism such a strong
policy hold. It's the Big Lie, repeated often enough that
it is accepted blindly except for a few thinking people and some
anarchists at WTO meetings, who are right on policy but wrong on
action.
Earth Changes
We have been watching the current
round of Southland heat from our 90 degree offices in North
Hollywood because the company I work for is saving $900 by not
fixing the A/C in a building which were supposed to be moved out
of by now. So when we read stories about heat related
health problems in nearby Arizona and up in the California
agriculture areas (Bakersfield, etc) we identify with the
problem.
We are also back into one of the
"summer shakes" earthquake windows today (really opens up
tomorrow) so if you are in a place with exposure to quake risks,
top off the gas tank, the water, and figure out your operating
plan ahead of time - just in case. The most interesting
quakes in the past day have included a
3.2 in the Mount St. Helens area - just a bit too much to be
a normal rumble.
More important, as we watch the
Pacific Tectonic Plate uncoupling from the earth's surface, is
the depth of some of the recent quakes - more than 500 km deep -
which one could argue are the "strings or columns that hold
plates in place" breaking loose. That's quite worrisome to
us especially when coupled with the relatively high energy
levels hitting the earth from space.
Tuesday
Ethanol:
Energy Sink
The most important story of today
is not one that involves earth change, the wars of oil, the
tensions with China/Korea, or the latest storm damage.
These are things we can get over. Instead, I would draw
your attention to the AP Piece which appears to throw cold water
on the notion that all we need is to make more ethanol and
our gas problems are over. Not by a long shot.
The problem, which is spelled out in the article, is that even
with ethanol, it takes more energy to grow the corn, transport
the grain, manufacture (distill) the ethanol, get it to a
refinery, mix it with oil-base product
and redistribute it, than the actual system-wide net energy gain.
In other words, says this report, ethanol is an energy sink.
Our reason for pointing this out to ou is that whenever you see
a new "magic bullet" arrive on the scene (such as a plant for
processing turkey offal, for example) carefully put on your
engineer's hat and run through all of the
relationship. How much electricity does the plant use?
What is the cost of heating/cooking the basic product to drive
it into something which can be separated into long-chain
molecules and all the rest. Thus our emphasis on you
reading at "getting" the concept of energy sinks.
This study is bound to be unpopular
with a group with call "corpmentalists" - corporations which
have wrapped themselves in the swaddling clothes of the energy
conscious environmentalists, but at the core for money, not to
really aid the planet. I know it's wet blanketish of me to
hold such a view, but if you really want to save energy, simply
legislate the end of high energy component incandescent lights
(replace them with LED and fluorescent everywhere) and make R-20
sidewall and R=32 ceilings mandatory globally. But hey,
what fun would it be putting all those people to work in the
construction industry? The report is no surprise to us, but now
you can be on the same page with energy sink thinking.
South Texas
Next
As hurricane Emily left her path of
destruction through the Cancun area, she's now lining up on
South Texas where she is expected to make here next landfall.
That area plus the northeast Mexico coast are expected to see
some damage, and as a preventative, oil and gas drilling in the
sector has been shut down. If you're a
"sun-earth" weather
connection fan, as Jim McCanney has proposed, then this
morning's Presto Alert about the sun may be of interest: "The
influence of a recurrent coronal hole is expected for tomorrow,
July 20, onwards. Last time this coronal hole passed the solar
disk (June 23 onwards), active to minor magnetic storm
conditions were triggered for 24 hours by a stream of solar high
wind speeds that reached up to 650 km/s on June 25." The
implication of the warning if the "link" is valid is that the
hurricane could strengthen according to the solar storm/wind
influences.
HP to Axe
14.5K
Here's another sign of job
automation and jobjacking for you -
HP is planning to layoff 14,5000 people in the near future.
IT, HR, and some business units should be watching for "pink
slip grenades" about to go off. The Bureau of Labor Statistics
should have the June Mass Layoff Report out in a few days, which
we are itching to see as we expect the gently downward trend of
the past six months or so is about to be reversed.
Roving
Reporters
...are still wondering how long
Karl Rove will be able to hang onto his job now that
another report is out saying that Rove was the one who named
Valerie Plame as a CIA asset. Time will tell if the
grand jury will return an indictment against Rove, or whether
"Rove" will become a brand of cookware - slicker than Teflon,
don'tcha know?
Ham Radio
Special Interest Note
If you are into ham radio, you may
be interested in the latest question I have asked a good friend
of mine to work on. Essentially, I keep looking at scalar
wave theory (after Bearden, et al) and wonder if there may be
something to the concept of antennas that operation is
more than one line or plane. Here's how I summed it up in
an email to my friend and colleague:
"Now let me engage the electrical engineer in you. have
you done any work on scalar antennas? A bunch of references
have popped up in Col. Tom Bearden's work at places like
http://angelslove.net/scalar_antennas.htm
The general idea is that there is more to Maxwell than
meets the eye and the concept is that when properly built,
such antennas radiate in a manner that “sneaks around” the
limitations of the inverse square law.
In other words, when the e & m fields are at the proper
phase relationship, (orthogonal to one another) strange
things begin to happen of a scalar nature. The reason most
“normal science” hasn’t gone down this path is that the
usual source of Maxwellian equations is based on the
“Heavyside interpretation”
http://66.102.7.104/search?q=cache:n1nbFkUiA3QJ:www.tcd.ie/Physics/Magnetism/Guide/electrorev.php+heavyside+%2Bmaxwell&hl=en
" There are other completions of Maxwell available,
but Heavyside is a simplification of the theory that yields
useful results.
Now throw this into the mix: Crossed Field antenna work:
http://www.antennex.com/preview/cfa/cfa.htm which
supposedly make it possible to develop physically smaller
antennas that can achieve similar results to normal Hertzian
fractional wavelength wires.
Now comes the question for you – because I know you will
have this off the top of your head:
Is there any antenna modeling software out there which
will model performance of a class of antennas which I’ve
penciled in as “complex geometry loop antennas”?
As shown in the quick sketch below, we all know that a ¼
wave four sided loop will radiate perpendicular to the
main axis of the loop (at 1λ & >). But what happens when the
geometry of the antenna is tweaked such that it becomes a
series of triangles (after Fuller, who was all hung up on
such)?
Moreover, what are the effects as additional 90 degree
twists are added and the phase relationships change? E.G.
3 legs at one wavelength should give basic look
performance (single plane)
4 can give conventional pattern or whatever this half
twist model would yield (bisecting planes)
5 sections of ¼ el each gives what?
6 gives?
7 gives?
How does the directivity/gain change as twists are added
along with ¼ wl nodes?
Just something that’s been bothering me because I seem to
recall that some antennas with 90 degree angles give gain (e.g.
Sterba curtain) so is there some limit to the gain
implied by 90 degree bends?
Let mw know if anything occurs to you on this.
------
(I'm pleased to report my
friend has taken the bait today!)
"With regard to your antenna
project, I'm always a little skeptical of devices that claim
to violate the laws of physics. Having said that, it's been
so long since I did any rigorous analysis of antennas that
I'd be hard pressed to come up with a rational argument as
to why your antenna should or shouldn't work. One thing I
can do is bundle up and send all the directories for my copy
of Brian Beezley's AO application. It's basically a PC
implementation of NEC which I used for my master's thesis at
the Naval Postgraduate School. AO does an excellent job
provided that the antenna isn't real close to the ground. As
I recall, it makes some simplifying assumptions about ground
characteristics that kind of fall apart when the antenna is
in close proximity to earth (e.g. dipole at a 1'
elevation)."
The open question is how it handles
the implementation of Maxwell in complex model space and whether
it follows Heavyside or goes the whole distance. If we come up
with anything, we'll pass it along to our fellow ham radio
types...
my
colleague is pretty well known in the software/ham radio arena.
Just as one can imply "gain" in a synthetic aperture antenna )at
least in terms of higher resolution compared with a stationary
antenna) from the addition of a third dimension (developed by
moving the antenna), might there be something there when an
additional dimension is physically added? I know
Sterba Curtains and Windoms work intuitively "better than they
should". -AC7X
Monday
Emily Hits
Messico
Yucky in the Yucatan is about it. On the other side of the
world, the headline is "Typhoon
terrorizes Taiwan." We won't bother pointing out that
last week at the G-8, the London bombings keep public attention
distracted from the fact that the US is the only industrialized
country with its head still in the sand on the global climate
collapse. Chip manufacturing should be watched along with
Mexico oil production. Rome, fiddle, burn, sound
familiar?
On the other hand, we
suspect that Karl Rove might be burning the midnight oil trying
to come up with a(nother) headline stealing Reichstag-type event
to keep himself in power as the
grand jury probe and the reporter comments close in around him.
The majority of readers I have heard from so far indicate that
any more terrorist events with "coincidences" and they'll know
it is all manipulative. Not sure how it will manifest, but
there's a smoldering resentment out there and the web bot
outlook for a growing sense of "militancy" would lead us to
expect state militias to start making headlines again in coming
weeks.. We see the tip of the trend in
Appalachia where everyday folks are banding together to do
what their elected government is incapable of doing,
specifically enforcing all the laws that are already on the
books!
Venezuela
Under Fire
For those who are
skeptical of the US backing of religious leaders to try and
overthrow governments, we offer the latest from Venezuela
where the Church has somehow become wrapped up in the US oil
agenda - which includes bouncing president Chavez.
British
Housing Peaked?
Maybe - maybe not.
Just read the figures -
a 1% drop in their latest reporting period. House
price deflation is cancerous, albeit long overdue.
Hawaii Vote
We notice that
Hawaiian Home Rule may be coming up for a vote shortly.
In case you haven't been following this, the first peoples want
their rights back which the U.S. absconded with. On the
other hand, a lot of mainland native gambling money is in the ;pbby
mix too, meaning if native rights come to the islands, we expect
casinos won't be far behind. Within months, we expect. But
then again, casinos have probably done as well as Wall Street
since 2000...and arguably the odds are more clearly stated.
Up, Down, or
Sideways?
As I mentioned in the
piece over the weekend, I have been doing a lot of thinking
about "fours" since the anomalous arrival of "fours" en masse on
our Friday walk. Whether it means anything, I don't know, but
with the "summer shakes" series in the web bot runs, and the
seismic window for So. Cal now open, if we work up on Tuesday to
a 8.1 shaker in L.A. (or any other place in CONUS) I would sure
not be surprised. A check of the quakes at
http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/ while more active isn't
terribly worrisome, but the sun popped off with an
ejection over the weekend which if it had been earth-directed
could have caused major issues. One alert reader catching it
with "WEB BOT direct hit SOHO confirms extreme SUN far side
expulsion. What would have happened if this hit was earth
directed? 10 GRB in last week portends big EQ imminent."
Sort of our worry, too. And even without the bots stopping to
sniff, the discussion boards are filling up with "Hawaii
quakes as an Omen" content.
We're happy to admit
that 9 times out of 10, such worries are pointless. On that 10th
time though, a section of the I-880 freeway pancakes on you and
you stop paying further taxes. Given the choice, I want to be
around to pay taxes. So we keep a weather-eye on such
things. Just like checking the weather before going
sailing, flying or why fire departments do building inspections
and pre-fire exercises.
In my own head,
since my Friday bout of "fours" I've been thinking, " Maybe
it's a count down...Saturday could three, Sunday two, Monday
one, and tomorrow zero. Tuesday - well, Tuesday
could be whatever." Not that we are excessively
paranoid but we are back to both packing ham radios with the
local emergency powered repeaters in memory and a full tank of
gas, extra water, and so on. Why, the preparation alone
should keep anything dangerous at bay.
Still, I received an
email about the string of coincidences about notable Hawaiian
earthquakes and
This Week:
Inflection Point
An inflection point
is a sort of "line in the sand" place for the market. As
we noted in our charts for subscribers this weekend, the Global
index and US indices have a ways to go before a breakout would
be confirmed, but they are getting north of traditional
Fibonacci bounce limits which brings the question of more upside
action to play. Our contributing fractalist, G. Lammert,
offers this:
George, prototypical of top fractal portions in saturated
markets on the daily, weekly, monthly, or yearly unit level
is the 'exhaustion gap', which serves as a high probability
marker for a turning point. This near apex gap can be seen
in individual stocks, local housing price linear valuation
curves and in major summation equity indices.
Money wise the greatest of all world summation indices is
the Wilshire 5000 (TMWX).
On July 11, 2005 an exhaustion gap on a minutely basis
occurred in the Wilshire taking it to a four and one-half
year high. With respect to its predominant, thus far
'perfect', x/2.5x/2x terminal daily growth fractal pattern
beginning in August 2004, July 11 fell on day 50 or 51 of a
51-52/129-130/50 or 51 of 102 day pattern - for ideal
fractal growth completion.
The Wilshire's daily fractal growth pattern is growing in
the shadow of a completed or nearly completed weekly fractal
pattern of 22/54/49 of 44-54. In the grand US saturation
macroeconomic picture, these daily and weekly fractal
patterns are nested in a 70/147 year pattern whose second
147 year growth fractal is decrepit and creaking with old
age, excessive bad debt, and consumer asset saturation.
Poignantly and pointing the way the equity market valuation
of the world's new manufacturing powerhouse, China, is near
a 6 year low - in spite of its remarkable GDP growth.
July 2005 witnesses extreme optimism in the United States
consumer and equity trader. Recent governmental inflation
figures which exclude long term housing cost are nicely
contained. Tax revenues based on a predominant service and
growing manufacturing-less non capital investment
debt-driven economy are projected to grow. Car shoppers are
congratulating themselves on their recent deals of a
lifetime in forward consumption of their new fire sale GM
cars. They are spending the money they saved on the vehicles
at Wal-Mart boosting its retail sales. In July 2005 as
saturation macroeconomics approaches its endpoint asymptote,
Optimism rules America.
Coincidentally in
July 2005 the current treasury market fractal pattern
represented by IRX curiously matches the identical monthly
treasury yield growth pattern that started in October 1998.
In 1998 the monthly pattern to the top was 7/14/7 which is a
replica of the current 7/14/7 monthly growth pattern
starting in June 2003. In 1998 IRX yields increased from a
low of 35 to a high of 60 for an absolute increase of 25 or
a 2.5 percent yield increase. The identical monthly pattern
starting in June 2003 has taken IRX from a low of 8 to
nearly 32 on 15 July 2005 for a gain of ... 25. While IRX is
Fed driven rather than market driven it is interesting that
a 2.5 absolute percent increase in treasury yield was
associated with the beginning of the dotcom implosion in
2000/2001. Maybe the Fed will be able to raise the yield a
few more months, before the housing market becomes saturated
and depletes the pool of possible first time buyers and
second house buyers. Maybe the saturation and depletion
timing will match the completion of the ideal 102 day
terminal Wilshire equity growth fractal. But then again -
maybe not. Under the longer fractal umbrella, expect the
unexpected.
G. Lammert
http://www.economicfractalist.com/
In addition to G.
Lammert's remarks, I want to publicly bring to your attention
one of the gems of savvy investment thinking at my friend
Trader Jim Goulding posted for our free discussion group last
week (links are up on the left menu). Check this out from
a hip Chicago-style trader:
The hardest thing I've had to do in the last year is to
learn to get out of the way of my own opinion when it comes
to short-term predictions on the market.
Everything over the last 4 years, as far as econ-data,
has pointed to a DOW average of 3k, yet, here we are.
I've worked on trying to pay attention to what the
'Street' is saying/thinking. That appears to have helped a
great deal. The street is not the people who are getting
screwed, day in and day out, as far as the economy goes.
The street is not Joe Average. Joe Average is getting
screwed, hence, much of the talk on the net from Joe Average
is doom and gloom. Understandable. I'm Joe Average and I'm
getting screwed. But that part of me must get out of the way
and think as the elite think. Then, and only then, can I
predict.
Also, if you look at the data over the last 20/30/40
years, to try and predict the future stock prices or the
economy, then you are looking at the wrong data. This isn't
the 1940s, 50s, 60s etc..this is a new era yet we have been
through this cycle before. We are repeating the 20s at the
moment.
That's exactly were I got my data to predict CBOT seat
prices.
http://www.jamesgoulding.com/CBOT_Seat_Analysis_1.html
That's exactly were I got my data to predict DOW 35k. The
seat prices came to fruition, next, the DOW.
Currently we are out of balance concerning the investment
world. Everyone is piled into the market I trade, Fixed
Income. They're not in the Stock Market. Everything seems to
be pointing to 11k by the end of July, but, who knows? Maybe
it'll happen in August. One indicator I've built shows that
we will be quite volatile from July 19th-24th. Maybe we
break out of the range then?
Once we get over 11k, the imbalance will become evident
and traders will be forced to get out of the bond market and
into the better performer, stocks.
Everything points to DOW 3k and the economy going into a
nose dive. But, not yet. In fact, we shouldn't ever see 3k
again. It looks like 35k in 2009, then a dive to 17k within
6-18 months. From 2010-2014 we should work our way back
under 10k for the last time, bottoming in the low 9ks. From
2014-2023 we begin a slow recovery and head back up to the
20s.
An important side note on Oil. The question that keeps
popping up is "why isn't the current price of oil tanking
the economy?" The answer is, that we need to get to $74 bbl
or $3.03 a gallon in gas. That will equal our dollar
adjusted 1981 prices.
Gotta run. Take care, jim goulding
Me? I expect the big decline will settle in easy like
now and will crescendo in mid November. But would I play
the short? Nope - for the reasons I pointed out to
subscribers this week - the market has a lot of "initial
stability" right now and finding where ultimate stability
is overwhelms can be a more spendy than you want to try kind of
exercise. And for reasons Jim has expressed - not to
mention the fact that the market is too big to fail.
It gives birth to the concept of a "prosperous depression" if
you mix equal portions of Weimar Germany inflation with 1929
deflation in the US...which seems like about the track we
continue bouncing down. At the end of it, half of the jobs
are gone, life is run by the government, and oh yeah, the rich
got richer while the middle income earners disappeared. Oh yeah,
and a nuclear terrorist event would change everything.
Operation
Follow-up
I'd like to share one
of the better "get well cards" that came in during my health
crisis induced lazy spell last week. This from our
correspondent the "Wandering Texan" who we suspise runs security
for a couple of domestic oil E&P outfits, but we'd never
directly ask what he does in places like Afghanistan and Iraq:
George:
News gets to us a
little slow these days. Sorry to hear about your recent bout
with that old demon appendix. Its unfortunate that you
didn't stay in Texas longer. That would have caused you to
cowboy-up more, and you would have taken care of that old
appendix yourself. Hell George, when my appendix went south
some years back. I just went out to the work shop in the
barn. Propped a full length mirror against the bench, leaned
back against a tractor tire and with two spoons, an ace
bandage, and my electric fish scaling knife I popped that
sucker right out. Used an old piece of rubber gas line for a
drain, and closed with some fishin line. The whole thing
cost me $2.86. Now I realize that was in 1992 dollars. But
if you had done the same--------$11.85 TOPS.
WANDERING TEXAN
PARIS FRANCE
That'd be better than
what I am braced for - even when I kick the bill back to be
billed at rates the Blue Cross rate rather than rack rate, and
ask th4e company to kick in, it's bound to be a couple of
round-the-world tickets worth.. Stitches out this
afternoon. And yes, while my typing is still decent, the
old body doesn't recover as fast even given CoQ-10's and small
portions of great food. Damn! I didn't want to grow
up, let alone age!
Over the weekend:
Off Economics
Usually on the
weekends I spend a few hours writing Peoplenomics and maybe post
a few items on the free side of the web site if there are
particularly interesting or potentially important developments.
But this weekend, a couple of observations from the adventure of
the burst appendix which you might find interesting:
Fatal
Halitosis
In polite and
politically correct society, people don't usually talk about bad
breath. I mention this because for about two years before
the removal of my burst appendix at this time last week, my wife
Elaine has persistently commented on my bad breath. Not
that I didn't take it seriously, mind you. I brushed
morning and night, used the tooth picks, the floss, and tried
everything from peroxide rinses to the breath saver pills.
Nothing seemed to help.
Get this: As
soon as the rotten (literally) appendix came out last weekend,
the bad breath disappeared. It didn't just wander off - E
figures it was just like a light switch - gone, poof!
Immediately I noticed changes in everything related to taste,
too: I suddenly found everything much saltier than before,
one egg and toast was a fine breakfast where before a three egg
omelet and extra toast was the appetite, and most curious of
all, any desire for a martini before dinner just upped and
disappeared.
There had been some
other "symptoms" of this going on for two (or more) years.
I had experienced occasional slight pains on the upper right
side of my stomach and an increase in use of antacid pills. The
right side pain I had chalked off to endless hours before the
mouse. The week before the appendix burst I think I must
have consumed half a bottle of Mylantin.
I'm sharing all these
quite personal details with you for a very simple reason:
In today's busy world it's easy to ignore the simple signs of an
approaching medical problem. Something as simple as your
wife mentioning a case of bad breath can really be the precursor
to something much more sinister. Do with it what you will.
Yes, I know dogs can smell cancer, too. I'm impressed
to learning that my wife can apparently "smell diseased
appendix!" Hell of an interesting discovery.
Synchronicity
of Fours
I was finally feeling
better enough Friday afternoon to go for a good walk. The
doctor had advised me to avoid being a couch potato and get out
and move around. So E and I decided to walk to the
pharmacy where I had prescriptions to pick up. As long as
we were on the walk (4-blocks worth each way) I figured it would
be good to pick up a few items at other stores along the route.
I walked in to a
plumbing store to get a hose washer because our removable shower
head was leaking. "How much for a hose washer?" I asked
the clerk. "It's 4-cents, but tell you what. It's
not even worth ringing up the sale 'cause they're only 4¢.
Just go ahead and take it - on us." I was impressed - so
much so that I gave the fellow a dollar with the advice "at
least let me give you a downpayment on your next beer."
The next store we went into was a
music store. We had seen John Mayer on public television
earlier in the week and decided to indulge in a couple of CD's
(Well worth it!). When I went to the counter and paid, my
change was: 4¢ "Huh, kind of curious," I remember
thinking.
Then we went to the pharmacy,
picked up the prescription, some additional Band-Aids and some
other miscellaneous household consumables. Again, my
change was guess what? 4¢!
Not being a complete dolt, I began
to try and sort out what to do. I went to the grocery
store and bought four, $4 lottery tickets (just in case) and
when we left there, my change included another 4¢ although this
time were was a quarter and a dime with it.
I don't know what the odds of this
are, but it was one of those
Jungian "golden scarab"
moments of synchronicity come calling. If the three's
or five's show up en masse, I drop you a note.
Now, back to our regularly
scheduled weekend....
News from
Elliott Wave International
On to Our Charts!
Write when you get
rich,
George Ure, The People's Economist
|
Sunday, July 24, 2005
07:02 A PDT
![[Most Recent USD from www.kitco.com]](http://www.weblinks247.com/indexes/idx24_usd_en_2.gif)
