Updated: Saturday December 27, 2003
"News with a twist of money..."
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Updated: Saturday December 27, 2003 "News with a twist of money..."
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A Personal Note
All those stories about jobjackings and layoffs became very real for me this past week when the new COO of the software company I'm with informed me that my position would be phased out at the end of the year. One sort of expects regime change when COO's change, and this time I'm part of the change. So, if you know of any job openings where an MBA with a great sales track record of both tangibles and intangibles, a prolific writer, and expert in turnarounds is needed, please let me know by clicking here. I'll be pleased to share my resume. Thanks!
Christmas Fallout
Just how Merry was it? Just how well were those halls decked out with boughs of holly? Was there joy to the [retail] world? Depends who you listen to. On the glum side: http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1071251781839&p=1012571727088 suggests that the holiday was off from forecast. According to CNN, the folks at Wal-Mart are breathing a bit easier, although even they are coming in at the very low end of forecasts: http://money.cnn.com/2003/12/26/news/companies/walmart.reut/index.htm. But here's the point: Retailers are trying to make up a bit for the low sales with a hard line stance on post Christmas returns. You know, the sweater that doesn't fit? That sort of thing: http://www.nypost.com/business/44221.htm.
SARS Back
China reports its first case in a long while: http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=71000001&refer=home&sid=asXcUptbhWdc.
Web Bots Were Right - Again
A long time reader will recall that our web bot technology forecast a world-changing tipping point event with 60 days of our first web bot publication of July 8, 2001. The WTC attack followed. It wasn't long after that that the 'bots forecast an attack on "house or assembly" - which preceded the anthrax attack on the nation's capitol. Of course you may also recall that the anthrax attack was preliminarily laid at the feed of a defense worker, who since has sued the government for fingering the wrong man. We took a fair number of barbs from readers who said "Neener, neener, neener...bot's missed..." Wrong. Bots rule.
Today the CIA is working on the theory that the anthrax attack (on House or assembly) really was part of a terrorist plot: http://www.washtimes.com/national/inring.htm. Of course since then, the bots have made numerous other "hits" including getting the "attack on a commemorative event" - the crash of American 587 right. Although the NTSB report has focused on mechanical failure, the web bots pick up and yield what people think is happening - and when the event occurred about 3-weeks after the forecast, the first thought that went through everyone's mind was "Oh my God...another terrorist attack."
Then there was the bot output on the Washington D.C. sniper case, where you'll recall the bots got the military link right - and after reading the output, one reader sent us the right Army insignia based on his read of the output. Most recently, we published a forecast of an al Qaida attack on a power plant, a plant described incredibly well. That report - and the match up with forecast is still available at http://www.urbansurvival.com/bothit5.htm.
As the new year begins, we are running a bit blind this year as the web bots are down. With my lack of a job - and my bot colleague also unemployed now - we can no longer afford to run the project. 90-100 GB of data points requires fractional T bandwidth we just can't afford.
Still, we're encouraged that the venture funding arm of one government agency wrote to us in December and asked if they could keep our information on file for another year or two - so perhaps there's hope that the project will spring back to life in 2004, although if it does, it will be under direct sponsorship and without public release. All of which would be fine with us because the purpose of the project was to "project and defend" (in addition to picking the odd stock purchase sentiment).
We wish Raytheon and other government contractors who are working on more data intensive (3rd order) projects all the luck in the world, although we harbor concerns about the possibly invasive nature of such efforts. The key difference between their technology and ours is that theirs is highly specific but narrow in focus. Ours is very broad in focus but yields a high level overview. Sort of like a coach pointing at areas to look into. Both have their place, but for now, due to a lack of funding, the bots are asleep.
Vegas Threat Downplayed
Not that you would expect the tourist and convention bureau to come out and say anything else, but folks around Las Vegas say there was no credible threat this past week: http://www.lasvegassun.com/sunbin/stories/text/2003/dec/26/122610396.html.
Non-Open Government
Good article about how spending priorities in Iraq are being set the same way they are in Washington D.C. - mostly behind closed doors and deal-making: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A33237-2003Dec26.html. Meantime, more deadly attacks overnight: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/3350995.stm.
Golden Oddity
We notice that the price of gold experienced a last minute beat-down on Friday. If you click over to a good chart of gold's price action, such as the link at www.ino.com, you'll see that a majority of Friday was spent around 413.50, but in the last few minutes of trade a 2-dollar drop was pushed through. When the anti-gold forces can only muster a last-minute drop, it means they are short of cash. We expect that with Parmalat trying to melt down and possibly lock up the world's derivatives market, that gold will show strength.
Iran Quake Toll: Up to 25,000?
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/B3BFAE9A-903C-466B-A7BB-2AACE8F09973.htm
Russia's Military Jets: Why Upgrade?
We notice that despite the outbreak of what passes for democracy in Russia, the country is still spending about 14% of its national budget on defense. And they are upgrading fighter aircraft: http://www.newsday.com/news/nationworld/world/wire/sns-ap-russia-air-force,0,3103703.story?coll=sns-ap-world-headlines. Our question is childishly simple: Why? What are they building to defend. against...or take the offense to?
Microcar Future
I keep having this vision in my head of something I call the "microcar". It would be slightly taller than a go kart, wide enough for 2-people and yet small enough to do 60 with a 10-horse motor. Ideally it would be sleek aerodynamically and would use a mix of electric and conventional power. With this in mind, check out the latest hybrid car making headlines in Oz: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/3350715.stm.
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PowerPoint as a Dumb Down Tool?
Here's something I've been meaning to chat with you about for some time: Have PowerPoint and the other presentation tools out there tended to dumb down people? It's a good question with a good discussion at http://www.hacknot.info/servlet/HS?cmd=sen&eid=16. One side of the PowerPoint question deals with the dumb-down problem. But the other side says that it's really good communications practice to distill a message until you arrive at its essential essence I've found in practice that in the heat of PowerPoint building I occasionally come up with "dumb slides" that without the context of other slides looks like third grade trash. I try to remember to go through and look for those. Speed can blur "dumb" so I stick to two slides per minute, to keep things moving along. While employed (where one of my attributes was being the staff PowerPoint whiz) my typical 20-minute PowerPoint ran 30-45 slides due in part to the financial content which slows things down.
Is PowerPoint a dumb down? Hardly -provided you have lots of graphical content. Thanks to Microsoft Producer and Studio 8, integrating moving video into PowerPoint's is becoming more common, but I'm amazed that more software developers haven't figured out how to dummy up software interfaces that actually work, using the hyperlink capabilities of objects. I don't mean this to sound like a job pitch, although that's appropriate due to my recent "reorganized out" status. It's just something to think about next time you put mouse to presentation. Distill, don't dumb.
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Friday
Was an Attack Thwarted?
Honestly, it's a bit hard to tell at this stage. On the one hand, we find reports that a trained pilot and a number of passengers failed to show for the Air France flights that were canceled over the holiday: http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A30985-2003Dec25?language=printer However, on the other hand, there's a credible AFP report that says nothing has been found so far to cause officials to believe an attack was thwarted: http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&cid=1506&u=/afp/20031225/ts_alt_afp/us_attacks_air_france_031225174726&printer=1. While no one is saying, the media guessing game will continue. What we're asking is whether this was a diversion from something else? The nervous watching continues: http://www.sunspot.net/news/nationworld/bal-te.terror26dec26,0,4377391.story?coll=bal-nationworld-headlines Plus - there's another al Qaida threat being bandied about; http://www.theage.com.au/cgi-bin/common/popupPrintArticle.pl?path=/articles/2003/12/26/1072308655425.html
Where was the Mad Cow From?
You'd think that with a $27 billion industry at steak, the farming community would know precisely where questionable cow came from. But they are not like cars where you can just look up the previous owner - as officials are finding out. The search is on to identify the original herd from which the latest mad cow emerged: http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A30300-2003Dec25?language=printer We'll stick with known source meats for a while...and we'll be watching McDonalds and Burger King later on when the markets open.
Remember the So. Cal. Fires?
All that land which was cleared by the huge outbreak of wildfires earlier this year has now spawned life-threatening mudslides in Southern California where more than 3 1/2 inches of rain has fallen: http://apnews.myway.com/article/20031226/D7VLNLQG1.html.
Iran Quake: Case for Building Codes
Several thousand are dead in Iran following a 6.7/6.8 earthquake in the region. http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/B3BFAE9A-903C-466B-A7BB-2AACE8F09973.htm What's interesting about this is that I was in Seattle when that 6+ shaker happened a couple of years ago. Although there was a lot of tension, the infrastructure held up well. It makes the case for tough building codes - especially in places where indigenous materials are used, teaching people how to construct homes that are as safe as possible. Big quake deaths are a pattern worldwide. In 1997, more than a thousand were killed in Iran by a 5.5. Would any of the 30,000+ dead from a 2001 quake in India have survived were countries more conscious of quake risks?
Russia Plays Iraq Money Card
Old Vlad Putin's got a big smile. Not only has his popularity soared in Russia, but now he's able to play the Iraq debt card. You see, Russia holds about $8-billion worth of Iraq debt which is uncollectible unless Russia gets in good with the new (U.S. installed) government. So Vlad reportedly will forgive up to 65% of the debt in return for Russia getting a chunk of the contracts to rebuild Iraq. Rolls the game forward... http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/154174A0-7B42-407C-AA75-0370A3E9C228.htm
In Iraq today, U.S. forces are focusing on the countryside around Tikrit. Why? Seems like Saddam ran his country a bit like the Sopranos - running a "family" oriented business with ties to the top families from his home town. http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A30843-2003Dec25?language=printer
Challenge for Asia?
Russia is moving into consumer and industrial electronics with surprising speed. It looks like Russia is - or shortly will be - more able to produce its own electronics than we are: http://english.pravda.ru/main/18/89/357/11642_Russia.html.
A Light-Hearted Forecast
John Crudele has a business outlook for 2004 which can be read two ways. If you're a regular reader, you'll find some funnies in it. If you "get" all the humor he's attempting in each item, you're a serious money news junkie... http://www.nypost.com/business/14472.htm.
Thursday (Christmas Day)
Musharraf Lives: Nukes Safe for Now
We've been following what appears to us as a strategy of al Qaida to attack the present leadership of Pakistan. In our constantly evolving worldview, there seems to be a dual strategy of militant Islamists. One level is to build & consolidate power in the Islamic world, and toward this end, we note developments in Turkey and Pakistan with alarm, because Turkey controls a strategic seaway and Pakistan has nuclear weapons. The other level of course is the ongoing effort to launch terror attacks on the West. Today, we read how the president of Pakistan has survived yet another assassination attempt - and attempt that killed seven people: http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/87110FEE-FF42-4248-BAE4-298FC526C3C3.htm.
In the war on terror, Air France pulled a half dozen flights yesterday because of fears that terrorists might be aboard and coming to the U.S. to attack. There's an excellent article today from Debka.com about why the domestic terror threat level was raised to orange. It has to do with Saudi/Yemen border terrorist camps sending forth ill intended followers in early December: http://www.debka.com/article.php?aid=750.
The Iraq Front
Nearly a dozen people were killed in bomb and rocket attacks in Iraq overnight. http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGAUHV1NMOD.html. There's a very good piece in the NY Times today about the high cost to the country of running multiple wars to keep the empire going: http://www.nytimes.com/2003/12/25/business/25scene.html?ex=1387774800&en=7bc70096eaa78868&ei=5007&partner=USERLAND.
If there's a Christmas miracle to wish for, it is our sincere wish that the Bush administration would massively increase spending on alternative energy projects, push fuel economy, and spend less trying to conquer oil-laden countries. When we read about the explosion in China which has killed more than 200, we're reminded that the whole world is on a massive energy quest and it's a trail fraught with military and industrial dangers: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/3347769.stm.
Despite our differences with the administration on its approach to the energy problem, let us not forget the brave U.S. forces serving on this Holiday who deserve special recognition and a place in our prayers for their sacrifices and those of their families. They didn't set the policies, but they're the ones defending the energy intensive economic model.
I expect if we had less immigration, exported fewer jobs, and had a policy of re-industrializing America with super-efficient factories, we'd have fewer terrorist issues. Especially if we could chart a course to a place where we could thumb our noses at foreign energy sources who presently have us over a barrel, so to speak. Perhaps coming from the oil industry has blinded this administration to fully 50% of the problem. They seem entirely focused on the source issue with which they are intimately familiar. But on the other side is consumption; about which virtually nothing is being done. I'd suggest to you that this is an unbalanced approach. This energy myopia also explains why there's talk about extending full citizenship rights - including Social Security benefits - to illegal aliens who never contributed. And we wonder why the Trust Fund is not all that trustworthy? Energy myopia we reckon. But I digress.
We read this morning that Syria and Egypt are saying that they do not expert Israel to be the last country in the Middle East to give up its weapons of mass destruction. Israel has, as everyone knows but few will admit, extensive nuclear and chemical/biological weapons. http://www.newsday.com/news/nationworld/world/wire/sns-ap-egypt-syria-summit,0,1726369.story?coll=sns-ap-world-headlines.
Weighing Markets
The big economic story on Wednesday was that big ticket goods orders dropped 3.1% in November according to the Commerce Department: http://www.nytimes.com/2003/12/25/business/25econ.html?ex=1387774800&en=720a5064fb611b84&ei=5007&partner=USERLAND.
That, plus the continuing beef concerns will weigh. Russia today has banned U.S. beef: http://newsfromrussia.com/main/2003/12/24/51918.html and the number of other countries is growing: http://www.nypost.com/business/14390.htm.
$12.5 Billion Question:
Where's the missing Parmalat money?: http://www.nypost.com/business/14388.htm.
Bureaucrats on the Delaware...
...seem to be causing some problems for the annual re-enactment of George Washington's historic crossing. By the time you get through all the rules, and add a swollen river, there's a question whether the re-enactment will take place: http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGAO8LHKMOD.html.
12-Days of Christmas: Up 19%
Is it inflation that lies in our future or runaway deflation? If the cost of the 12-days of Christmas means anything, the future is inflationary, if we get there intact to enjoy it: http://www.nytimes.com/2003/12/25/business/25costs.html?ex=1387774800&en=d4a3d371dc8d2477&ei=5007&partner=USERLAND.
We note that the eight maids a milking didn't make any more this year than last, which means unskilled workers are not getting ahead. Not that we needed a survey to tell us this. But piping pipers and drumming drummers up 22.8% makes us think about finding an instrument to play quickly and join a musician's union. Alas, with 54 almost here I've decided to eliminate being a professional athlete from my present job search.
Wednesday
Attack Pending? REG Watch
Although we're praying that nothing happens over the Holiday, there has been what appears to a non-expert to have been a major increase in the number of Princeton REG events this morning. You can listen & watch at http://noosphere.princeton.edu/. Just in the short time I have been watching (and listening) I've seen two "yellows" (a big GONG noise accompanies yellows) which is very rare. It's not as good as the bots, but it's an indication of global consciousness which is likely to be effected by any large-scale terrorist event. Also, gold is up to $413 briefly - not a good sign.
Barriers to Beef
The discovery of a lone infected cow in Washington State has led to an almost immediate shutdown of U.S. beef exports to places like Japan, South Korea and Taiwan: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/3345929.stm. One of our readers sent us some steaks for Christmas - and I'm not worried about hand selected privately raised beef. On the other hand because of generally sourced meat going into hamburger and such, stocks like McDonalds may take a bit of a setback today. There's a difference between the conditions of personally raised beef and so-called factory beef.
You may be interested in this reader note:
I'm the one that sent you the dissertation on mad cow that you posted.
A few things to note about the USDA's spin. First, Ann Veneman, Secretary of Ag, used to work as a lobbyist for the Cattle Industry. Second, they only tested 20,000 brains this year. Yet, there are 37 million cows slaughtered in the U.S. every year. You do the math. There are a lot more cows with Mad Cow that have been served up to Americans.
They knew they were taking a chance. France alone tests 20,000 cows per week and Japan tests 100%.
By the way with regard to my Freedom of Information request to the CDC regarding the NJ cluster of people that died and all ate at the track, the CDC denied my request because they said it was confidential research information. I just put in my appeal yesterday.
The article referenced, "Dangerous Beef" is still available in the Urban Survival library: http://www.urbansurvival.com/library.htm. And if you haven't see the difference between personally raised meat and other meat, see: http://www.meatrix.org/ Our own belief favors family farms and a local - known - packing house. Another eye opener is http://www.nodowners.org/. The more I research the subject, the more I believe that small family farms tend to act more ethically than corporate enterprises interested in only one thing. (Hint: $$$) One reader asks: Might be our old friend Famine saddling up for one more apocalyptic ride!
Iraq: Smaller Rations
Gasoline supplies keep getting tighter and tighter in Iraq. Purchasers are down to a maximum of 30-liters, or about 8-gallons per visit to the filling station: http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/5142109B-1782-4DFB-B640-835827BB0037.htm We keep hearing reports that the Iraqi pipelines are not yet working and that what oil is being exported from the country is coming by way of barrels which are trucked out of the country. A slow way to do business, but with pipeline security difficult, the reports may be accurate. Four dead overnight in another suicide attack in Iraq, by the way: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/3346095.stm.
Striking Where?
There are more reports today that a pending al Qaida attack may be staged outside of major metropolitan areas. The other big concern is about theft of a cargo plane: http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGALRZI4LOD.html. Although there has been talk about attacking the Alaska pipeline or the port of Valdez, we note that militant forces tend to bomb things, and tend to focus on people killed. Although there's something to be argued about biological attacks, for some reason the majority of attacks seem to involve a boom rather than a gurgle of something going in a food or water supply. And with this perspective, there's something belieable about a purported demand letter from al Qaida to the Bush administration which is not being mentioned in happy-talk conservative media: http://www.talonnews.com/news/2003/december/1222_alqaeda_nukes.shtml. This report is interesting because of this particular demand:
Other demands read [sic], "The returning of the old borders known to you and we press on the northern borders, the release of all our prisoners in your jails whom you know and we know only. The dismantle of the so called (United Nations and its council) in an international decision."
The reason this is so important is that this kind of demand would be what was written if Osama bin Laden was being held in a secret jail somewhere to be used as an "October Surprise" next year, something which keeps popping up in web traffic.
Post Quake
People along the central coast of California are understandably a bit nervous following yesterday's quake: http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGAO3LP5LOD.html.
Bah Humbug: Elves Laid Off!
I couldn't make this up - hawk-eyed reader Brad spied this and it's too close to the topic of jobjacking not to be pointed out. In Lapland, the economy is so bad that Santa's elves are being laid off: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/3343909.stm.
Another letter to the grinch worth sharing:
As I mentioned the last time I contacted you. I run a large video operation based in a large mall in a very affluent sections of Dallas. Today (23 Dec.) my staff and I were discussing how this Christmas has been financed almost exclusively on credit cards. We never see cash on anyone over the age of fifteen. Even most fifteen year olds have their own credit card now. After a few chuckles about the kids and credit cards, one of my staff mentioned that what we were thinking were credit cards must be bank debit cards. Then curiosity got the better of us, we ran the register journals for the past month, only about eleven percent of the cards were debit. All the rest were credit.
One of my colleagues at work asked yesterday if I was at all upset about and layoff due to reorganization and the resulting move from crowded Boca Raton to the outback of Texas, several miles from a town of 18,000. I said, "Are you kidding? My biggest fear is that we won't get out of here in time..."
Tuesday
Super Market: NYSEDAQ?
Not that it should come as a shock, as corporatists have always been high on roll-ups and aggregations - to the point where mergers and acquisitions is more a religious pursuit and rational decision process - but today the NASDAQ is reportedly interested in a merger with the NYSE: http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/031223/finance_nasdaqnyse_merger_2.html. Is this motivated by a sincere belief that there could be efficiencies of scale? Our guess is that there's some of that. There might also be some NASDAQ people eyeing the NYSE's generous compensation programs.
Where Will They Strike?
There's apparently no telling, except for the usual big targets being mentioned: New York, L.A., Chicago, and Washington. http://www.cnn.com/2003/US/12/22/threat.level/index.html. But there are others which have popped up...Las Vegas, Phoenix, and more...so no telling. As Homeland Security advises, have your home preparedness kit ready and be flexible.
Conflict Fronts
In keeping with our notion that one can see the outlines of a broad global conflict between militant Islam and the West's consumer orientation in the news, we would offer some examples that could be viewed in this way. In Washington, a group of Republicans has started looking again at whether Iraq really had WMD's: http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/D79C3B00-8A72-44C2-9045-27957338ABF9.htm. Of course, even had WMD's, there would be the issue of whether the facts were deliberately twisted, or just presented in support of this world-view. And Baghdad is playing down rumors that the constitution building group isn't getting anywhere fast: http://newsfromrussia.com/world/2003/12/22/51900.html. An al Jazeera poll today shows their readers are just about evenly split on whether Saddam Hussein should be tried in an Iraqi court or in some international forum.
We also see how Saudi Arabia's ruling strata is becoming more closely aligned with the West as they are adopting WTO participation: http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/7CE62FCB-A825-4EC2-9799-2F3DA9D9457B.htm. The troubling thing about this is that the Saudi Kingdom is heavily Wahabi which sets up internal conflict for the Saudis between the Western-oriented ruling class and the Wahabi.
Last, but certainly not least, is the report today that Pakistan may have supplied nuclear know-how (and possibly more) to Iran. Pakistan says the technology transfers may have been "motivated by greed": http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/3343323.stm Motivations aside, the continuing discussion of a nuclear Iran with what, five submarines? Is a worry for the whole world.
Job Creation 101
Over the past couple of days, commentary coming out of China takes the Bush administration, and critics, to task for the notion of a "jobless recovery." There has been lots of job creation, notes one Chinese author. And where are those jobs that the recovery has created? Oh, in China, of course! At a minimum 4 to 5 million jobs have been exported this year that will never return. Thanks to globalism...
Christmas #'s
You can find just about any version of holiday sales you want this week. Some are saying sales are off significantly, others report average, and some, like this NY Times piece say it's all about discounts: http://www.nytimes.com/2003/12/23/business/23paycheck.html?ex=1387602000&en=becd7ef7f5c6577c&ei=5007&partner=USERLAND.
One of our readers was in a Radio Shack this week and reported virtually everything except batteries was being purchased on credit cards. More cheery news in the NY Post: http://www.nypost.com/business/14187.htm. With numbers due out this morning, we'll tend to take all the statistics and discount them as 50% happy-talk.
Elaine was shopping at Marshall's the other day and reported that during a big back up at the checkout stands, the store opened up the customer service counter, but only for cash transactions. Exactly four people got in the cash line. Elaine counted 40 in the credit card lines...so at least in this sample, under 10% of business is using cash, so the Radio Shack anecdote seems the norm. Let me know if you see more than 20% cash being used anywhere...
UNIX Wars
First, if you don't know what a kernel is in a computer system, click over to http://searchenterpriselinux.techtarget.com/sDefinition/0,,sid39_gci212439,00.html. Now then, with the release of Linux kernel 2.6 this week, we see Novell registering UNIX copyrights: http://www.nytimes.com/2003/12/23/technology/23unix.html?ex=1387515600&en=bf0f126895f9ddc5&ei=5007&partner=USERLAND and at the same time SCO (which was the Santa Cruz Organization at one time) is claiming it has rights to UNIX. Even in the world of open-source, things like rights becomes contentious. I can hear the snickers of the 'Softies now...
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Christmas in China
There are not a lot of Christians in China, but we think it's instructive to note that despite the image of a "kinder, gentler China" hype, the harsh reality of bulldozed Churches and official crackdowns is anything but the freedom loving worker's paradise pictured: http://www.newsday.com/news/nationworld/world/wire/sns-ap-china-christmas-crackdown,0,7779694.story?coll=sns-ap-world-headlines. And what about China's move - much touted in the Western press recently - about property rights being extended? Check the fine print advises the NY Times piece at http://www.nytimes.com/2003/12/23/international/asia/23BEIJ.html?ex=1387515600&en=dfb7f6baa49d2360&ei=5007&partner=USERL.
Despite all the hype - and not to mention all the Chinese-made products in Wal-Mart - China is still a totalitarian place and very dangerous to our future.
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Monday
Christmas Orange
You've no doubt heard by now that the terror threat level has been raised to Orange by the Homeland Security Agency. This is the third or fourth time it has happened and it is based on increase traffic monitored by suspected terrorist connections. But what's going on in the background is even more interesting. Did you know, for example, that Russia has beefed up border security with Azerbaijan and Georgia to limit terrorist movements? http://newsfromrussia.com/main/2003/12/20/51878.html. We note this because Russia has reportedly manner missing arms, some nuclear. Our expectation? We would not be surprised to see "red" reached around New Years and pat-downs before Bowl Games.
Chinese Property Rights
Chinese lawmakers are looking at a constitutional amendment which would protect private property rights. The only comment about the story at http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGARSFLCIOD.html is that owning property is only renting if government can tax it annually.
$30 Billion 3 Hour Trades...
I thought I was bad, doing 200 day trades this past year, but apparently I'm a slouch compared with Freddie Mac. Revelations about their trading includes a description of a 3-hour $30 billion trade to move assets around the books: http://www.nypost.com/business/14077.htm. Gotta wonder what the commission was on that?
Gold Pops
It's up a couple of bucks in the pre-open Monday, not only because of the Orange alert, but also because of the continuing pressure on the peachback: http://uk.news.yahoo.com/031221/325/ehl5i.html. Absent higher interest rates to lure foreign money, we expect to see the net outflow continue. What's coincidental is that if we have a terrorist attack over New Years, as I fear, then terrorists would take virtually all the blame for resulting economic dislocation, however structural it really is...
Who Really Got Saddam?
The Kurds say it was they - not U.S. forces - who really got their hands on Saddam Hussein first. That's why he was "in the hole" - he wasn't hiding, he was drugged and held says this report: http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/A1D11E46-3EE1-4DDC-A193-E3233A933275.htm. Another version at http://www.smh.com.au/cgi-bin/common/popupPrintArticle.pl?path=/articles/2003/12/21/1071941612613.html. Meantime, in Washington, pressure continues to resume the probe into whether there really were WMD's in Iraq http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/D79C3B00-8A72-44C2-9045-27957338ABF9.htm.
Baked for the Holidays?
Report that Al Gore's son was busted on pot charges: http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A18174-2003Dec20?language=printer. If you're not a smoker, the fact that they got a misdemeanor instead of a felony only means they had less than 50 pounds. If you look at the NORML web site http://www.norml.org/index.cfm?wtm_view=&Group_ID=4542 you'll see Maryland is a super easy state. The soft drink can that smelled of marijuana? Shades of the 'Nam era beer can bong.
Drugs Without Borders
Governor of Illinois is stepping up to Federal controllers and saying that people should be able to buy prescription drugs from Canada: http://www.nytimes.com/2003/12/22/national/22DRUG.html?ex=1072674000&en=05fb7dc416c46986&ei=5062&partner=GOOGLE
With our move to Texas shortly, we'll probably resume shopping in Mexico, where same drugs as here are a fraction of the domestic price.
The Price Is Right
If you read about Salon's latest marketing plan, you'll see that our decision to reduce subscriptions from $50 to $30 for our Inside Report was just about right: http://www.nytimes.com/2003/12/22/technology/22salon.html?ex=1387429200&en=474b800853ba8078&ei=5007&partner=USERLAND Their price: $35. Ours: $30. Way different content though.
Next Week in Inside Report: Our Annual Forecast Issue. Subscription information by clicking here.
Beaming Up Priceline
You know that William Shatner (James Kirk) has been the spokesperson for Priceline.com. But check this out: The pointy-ear fellow is about to join him for the pitches: http://www.nytimes.com/2003/12/22/business/media/22spock.html?ex=1387429200&en=b53b7ceca3d9eb35&ei=5007&partner=USERLAND
Priceline's approach is a good one. We're still waiting for a paper products firm to book a Klingon for their spokesperson. I thought Mr. Scott had a future as the ultimate Mr. Good Wrench spokesman, too...
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On to the Charts!
Write when you get rich - or sooner if you feel like it. And always remember:
△ ≠ Ω but, then again, it might
All contents (c) 1998-2003 by George A. Ure, MBA, except authors as linked or noted
