|
"Standup Economics" This economy is a what? |
|
07:55 CDT
|
|
The free public side
of
Peoplenomics.com
Subscriber
Local Navigation:
●
Home
"How to Live on
$10,000
Related Sites Web
Bot Project
NE Power Outage
Favorite
Colleagues
North American Earthquakes — Last 72 Hours
Our Favorite Tool::
Vendors & Such
Posters:
Machine parts:
www.emachineshop.com
Commodity Trading
Bullion Buying/Selling
Web Hosting
Radiation Monitoring Emergency Food Stores
|
|
|
Last Week
| Peoplenomics |
Library
| Independence Journal
| | Site Disclaimer| Publisher's Note | Elliott Wave | Technorati Profile |
That Was Quick: June Either I'm getting older (and we'll none of that kind of talk around here, thanks) or life is zooming by faster and faster. It seems like only a few days ago it was winter, yet here we are well into summer. --- Probably the most significant thing that has happened for the month came this week with the discovery of an unexploded massive car bomb outside of a London night club. While it has long been speculated that suicide bombers and extremists would at some point go after civilian targets both in Europe and the USA, the London event may actually mark a turning point where large assemblies of just plain folks become targets. --- The rest of the month, except for the massive rains in Texas/Oklahoma has been pretty unremarkable. But, travelers who are experiencing airport delays due to the month's computer, weather, and fuel problems might not agree.
Sadly, the predictive linguistics (www.halfpasthuman.com ) seem to indicate much more rain is coming, and while present-day headlines point to this, the extent of the rain won't be apparent for some weeks to come - and perhaps months. And, it's not like Texas/Oklahoma is alone. A flood in otherwise parched Oztralia has done the most damage in 40-years, and the flooding in England and parts of Europe may have done damage topping $2-billion. --- The weather is of concern around here, not just because its interesting, but because as a 'renegade economist' I'm always watching what I'd call the fundamentals. One of these is that weather drives grain prices (beans rallied at the week's end), and these in turn show up on store shelves. Elaine, on her trip into town on Friday for ranch supplies, returned to report that Borden's one-gallon milk was so far over $5 a gallon that she changed to a different brand (Shep's, still under $5), but these kind of personal hedonic adjustments can only go just so far. We're not about to use anything but hormone free (or reduced) milk and the cost reduction has gone now about as far as it can. --- While I'm expecting on more major push to top off the market before heading down into the fall (and the fall's fall, at that), the month of June wasn't anything to write home about if you happen to be a buy & hold kind of player. For example, a check of the close for the month of May shows 31-May ended 13,627.64 by the Dow, while June ended at 13,408.62 -- a loss of more than 200-poionts, but nothing like the carnage I expect later on. --- Still, there are potential ways to make a killing, even in the kind of markets I see ahead this fall. I'll be explaining for Peoplenomics subscribers tomorrow how a single $500 investment I've been eyeing has the potential to return $25,000. No, I am not making a recommendation to them - but I am looking at this for my personal account, although in all honesty it is a wild-eyed gamble - a risky speculation - and to call it an investment would be laughable. Still, I would spend at least that much on a trip to the gambling boats at Shreveport/Bossier City, and even more on a trip to Atlantic City or Lost Wages. But, more on that for subscribers in tomorrow's Peoplenomics report. --- Around here, more work on the new shop today - building a cabinet to put things in and a new work bench. Once that's done, I'll be putting in a new goat building as fencing is going in now, and the garden now sports a dandy vegetable washing station made from the old stainless steel sink that came out of the kitchen redo months back.
Don't forget the evening of July 4th into the 5th, Cliff from HalfPastHuman and I will be on CoastToCoastAM with George Noory. Cliff's a low-profile guy, but there's enough stuff in the predictive linguistics that deserve a general public airing, that he's agreed to do it.
In a conversation this week, he reminded me of a web bot run (must have been a year or so back) where there was a very good description of how weather around the planet would do what was described as "banding". To be sure, the bands are not straight north-south affairs, but the bands of rain and heat more of less stationary storms seems to be going on now. With a Global Coast Event expected in the distant future (like 2008) and with terra due to intrude much more this year, his advice to "dig a hole for the winds and have a boat for the flooding" hasn't fallen on deaf ears.
As the US dollar heads for a 'near death experience' due to what my friend Jas Jain called "Peak Debt" (which is coincidentally near to Peak Oil), my fear is that the Manufacturers' Resource War is still coming toward humans at breakneck speed.
The America public seems locked in denial about peak everything being here, or just past. But two markers arrived as June ended that really slapped me 'upside the head' and reminded me that thinking about UrbanSurvival is nota pointless exercise.
The first 'slap upside' was in an email from a personal email from a dear friend who looks at other (non-economic) indicators and suggests that America's very greatness itself may have peaked with the landing on the moon a few decades back. He continues:
Sadly, he may be right. I remember messing around with holograms as a high school kid (pretty good at science back in the day), invited out to work with low powered lasers in the basement of the University of Washington Electrical Engineering building in '66. Where are next breakthroughs today? I haven't been back to the U-Dub, but is there anything in the basement of the EE building today that will so fundamentally change the world? I sure haven't heard about it. Rumors of this or that, but knock-down, drag-out engineering analysis? Not that I've heard of - you'd have to go some distance to beat the impact of lasers - everything from fiber optics to CD/DVD technology - it's all sprung from that.
The second 'slap upside' was that there are near certain signs that my outlook is realistic (although I've been called a 'gloom and doomer' by folks who like their heads stuck comfortably in dark places. (Come on, I thinking sand, although your other speculations could well apply.)
While corpgov has been busily keeping the public's attention on immigration "reform" and while corp media has been touting brats in jail and such, here's a headline supportive of the "heading for showdown over resources" that every American ought to be worried as hell about: I'd wager a six-pack of Texas beer that if you ask most Americans what a Topol is, they'll answer "Isn't that a toothpaste?"
It's hard to talk to dyed-in-the-wool consumers about anything but consuming and consuming more. Like my little sister says: "If all's not lost, where is it?" I think I'll dig a hole for those winds...
Peoplenomics: Let's Build a Calamity Planner! No, I don't give personal financial advice, but this week here's a very useful basic spreadsheet that will let you a) plug in your current financial data. When you do that, it will tell you your current net worth (not counting autos), your current disposable income, but most importantly, it will give you the number of months you can survive on your current cash reserve, or if things get really dire, how long you can survive on both cash and non-real estate semi-liquid assets. As the infomercials on TV say "But Wait! There's more!" You can also model what will happen to your financial condition under any number inflation or deflation scenarios, as well. So if the Chinese bubble blows up and the world heads into hyperinflation or massive deflation as a result, you'll at least have more idea than most folks about what lies ahead. Subscribers can click here to download the fine CalamityPlanner.xls. I'll now explain how it works and how someone (like me, for instance) might use this "what if?" planning tool. Think of this as a financial video game where the objective is to get "cash survivable months" in cells C33, C70, and C107 to click over to "indefinitely" under the broadest range of inflation and deflation outcomes.
More for Subscribers How to Become a Subscriber
By the way - a quick bit of feedback from a subscriber on how this model works:
"No Incumbents in 2008" Bumper Sticker To get your "No Incumbents in 2008" click here. They're just $5. And no, that would not keep Ron Paul from running for the White House - he is not an incumbent there - having never held that job before, got it?
Buzz You might want to tell all your friends that you read UrbanSurvival or Independence Journal. That way, they'll marginalize you as a "nut job" and won't bother speaking to you about jobs, the economy, and such. Click here to warn them.
Be a "Third Worlder" Now! Order our handy ebook "How to Live on $10,000 a year or less - and learn to live like a Third World person now. It's coming anyway, with big job layoffs this summer - and by ordering now, you can beat the rush...
Friday June 29th, 2007 Special Update: Personal Income Collapse OK, now I'm furious: The headlines from the "Bureau of Economic Analysis" say Personal Income increases 0.4% in May. But the personal savings rate in their own report shows savings dropped another 1.4% in one month- which means people are borrowing from savings to make ends meet! And yet this is buried in the "Offishul" report! Your savings is being hijacked to feed the greed of the corporates and government is playing along! Where the hell are our Leaders? $140-billion less in savings and not a friggin' peep from the MainStreamMedia!
Mexico's Bankers Fan Illegal Immigration In the wake of the Senate turning down the second attempt as shoving an immigration bill through with 'dark of the night' kinds of procedural moves, an American supportive of current laws that already make illegal immigration into the USA a felony, might be tricked into complacency. But, I'm saddened to report that the issue of the Powers That Be (PTB) shoving immigration "reform" on us, and ultimately the unification of Mexico and Canada into a single political union under the sham of the misleadingly named "Security and Prosperity Partnership of North America", which I expect would go down in flames if ever voted on by the People or by a Congress free of bribes and corporate vote-buying, has now been moved to the Mexican side of the border. My sources in Mexico City report:
I will be checking with my source to find out which American banks are involved in this - and Elaine and I are reviewing a 30+ year relationship with a Big American bank (that oughta be hint enough, huh?) because of their policy which I see as encouraging export of US dollars by illegals in the USA. Now it might make sense from a banking revenue enhancement standpoint to offer 'loose' access to shipping money out of the US to Mexico, but it's unacceptable to my ethical standards because it encourages lawlessness and lawbreaking in the form of more illegal entry to America. There'd be less illegal immigration if law breakers had to walk home to deliver their cash, right? There's a sad confluence of economic pressures applied to the good people of Mexico by the corporatist one-world banksters. I count the pressures as follows:
And you wonder why I'm promoting "No Incumbents in 2008"? How many reasons do you need?
Where Was Dick, When? Little mainstream media attention is being brought to bear - in fact almost none - on the headline from the Jones Report this week that "[Former transportation Secretary] Norman Nineta Confirms that Dick Cheney Ordered Stand Down on 9/11"
I know, you're thinking "Gee, that's a hell of a headline, why no coverage?" The control of mainstream media by corpgov interests is really quite thinly veiled. Why do you think there's talk about how bad the FCC's Fairness Doctrine and Equal Time requirements are, on the part of right-wing corpradio and Corptv execs? Money, power and control, my friend.
As I have warned you many times, remember that that is not a right/left, conservative/liberal debate. Don't fall for that! It's about those in power pushing one flavor of corporate agenda versus an out of power group pushing another. Each side has its blinders: Many liberals are blind on illegal entry to the USA, while many conservatives are blind on resource war/warmongering. Hell of a choice, huh?
Near Bombing While the discovery and prevention of a major bombing outside a London night club is being sold as terror, I'm not so sure it's not more like local gang warfare and/or drugs. Guess time will tell, though.
Alaska Land Grab Vlad Putin is making an astonishing claim - he's claiming ownership of the North Pole and lots of additional land in what most of us think of as Alaska. With oil, gold, diamonds and such up for grabs, you think the Russian missile tests lately are coincidental? Ha!
Better Late Than Never Dept. The Food and Drug Administration has decided to detain Chinese seafood for inspection after reports that it may contaminated with drugs, and so forth.
Fed Pass As we reported to you yesterday afternoon, the Fed didn't raise rates this week, but then again in yesterday's report I showed how the Fed really has to be looking at genuine M1 deflation as shown below. Nevertheless, the "inflation whipping boy" is being trotted out in headlines today.
Pssst! Here's a dirty little secret as to why they couldn't raise yesterday: The Mortgage-Implode-O-Meter shows we're up to 91 lending outfits showing up in the financial morgue since late 2006. So is there a Fed mystery? duh...
Oil's over $71 this morning.
Think duality: M1 deflation, M3 (reconstructed) serious inflation. Homeowner and middle class assets declining, M&A and derivatives deals full steam ahead. Got it? Haves versus have nots (again... :-( )
Column Thrice Written I have had two crashes this morning of Vista while writing today's report. Would have been 2-3 times longer without those. But don't think I'm bitter about popping a grand on a new dual core laptop that works on whims: The refreshing thing about Vista is that I don't get the BSOD (blue screen of death) which rarely happened in XP after lemme see, two service packs and a zillion hotfixes. Nope, this just fades to a semi-white-out fog and does nothing. Yup, this is progress, Bill.
Check back in a few - will run the spell check after first posting.
Thursday June 28, 2007 Special Update: Fed Holds Rates As I told you this morning, given the inconvenient truth that housing is still in the crapper and real deflation is here (are shown in the Fed's own M-1 numbers lately) the Fed as expected held rates to no increase at their meeting today:
You can read the link for yourself here. And I had a great conversation with my deflationist friend Jas Jain, who offers that anyone looking at interest rates has to learn that the whole of what happens in the economy is driven by how much debt can be foisted onto consumers. Once consumer debt-saturation is reached, whoever is in political office will be left holding the bag:
Although Jas' point seems clear enough, the rest of the world is still in cheerleading mode - and the BEA figures on GDP out today seem to be a current "rah rah".
Deflation is here, ATM turns 40 Unseen to most eyes has been the huge transition underway below the perception threshold of most people as the world transitions from fungible paper assets to electronic "money." The reason I got to thinking about this today is that the ATM is 40-years old. The ATM has become so ubiquitous that it has prompted Bill Virgin, up at the Seattle PI, to wonder "Is the ATM growing obsolete?" |
