Taxing Thoughts

Not often that I will post a Sunday update on the free side of the site, preferring to devote all my energies to the Peoplenomics report for this week.  However, a number of people seem to be confused about the "Family Economic Stimulus Act of 2008" and the use of the term "rebate".

First, an email from a reader/CPA"

"George,

After reading the House bill attached, it looks like the rebates are an advance on a new credit for 2008. After reading through the government-speak, there is a new tax credit in 2008. Part of the credit is being given in advance based on 2006 income. For 2008 taxes, people will need to report what they received in advance. The rebate will be required to be paid back only if taxpayers are not eligible for the credit based on 2008 income.

Thanks for all your work!"  (reader/CPA, name withheld)

My in the Saturday post, was (and is) that what was sold to us taxpayers as a rebate is nothing of the sort.  It is a tax credit against 2008 taxes.  In other words, if you would owe $15,000 for the year, and you got an $800 "credit", then your adjusted tax bill less credit would be $14,200.

OK, here's the tricky part - and why I get so ticked as the weasel-wording double-talkers in CONgress.  There are two things you can take to the bank (as long as they're open):

1.  While you may get 'fronted" $800 (a couple, inside the qualifying window) as a "credit" one of the obvious intents of this is to incent as many people as possible into filing 2007 income tax returns.  While I certainly don't endorse non-filing, after all, it's a growing trend and one motivator behind this is to get more people to file.  But this is paper thinly disguised: file or no check.

 

2.  The second sure bet is that as soon as the elections are over this fall, and maybe before, the new CONgress will immediately pass a tax bill which will increase taxes by - hold onto this concept - an amount which will wipe out your supposed credit.

My point was - and remains - that this is not a rebate (*money back on something already paid). 

It's more akin to walking into a car dealership with 'dealer cash' of $1,000 which, quick, look surprised, is promptly gobbled up in the fine print as dealer add-ons (*clear coating, undercoating, and "Oh, you want a radio, too?") as you get closer to signing the deal.

There is no free lunch.  This is America.  The only free lunches are for the PowersThatBe.  Sorry.

You is lunch.

Saturday February 9, 2008

The "Revolution" Meme?  Angry Tax Payers

And so it begins.  The predictive linguistics which have been going to the idea of "revolution" and the "calls for early elections" later on (by late summer) are not just looking for how 'government blows response to natural disaster' (weeks off yet), but we are now finding out that the much touted 'tax rebate" (which implies an unencumbered return of some portion of tax paid) is nothing more than a bait and switch - an advance 'credit' on your 2008 taxes. 

So, to put it more simply: If you were going to get a refund a year from now when you do this year's taxes you'll instead be acknowledging that you already got part of it.

The idea that this didn't cost corpgov anything - nor did it impose additional restraints on spending - verges on fraud, as I see it.

Not like I'm the only one who sees it, either.

• You could have read it here...

• Or here...

• Or here...

But honestly, what amazed me was the arrogance of the politicos in the District of Corruption who think they can use a term like "rebate" (*which might mean they would rein in some of their pork projects to make ends meet) versus a "cash advance" on 2008 taxes paid.

The hell of it is, that their arrogance is likely well-placed.  Besides calling my CONgressperson Monday and Texas' two sinators to express my disapproval of such hi-jinx, there's not much I can do except maybe point out that all the front-running presidential wannabes had a hand in this (or a vote) and I don't hear any of them 'telling it like it is'.

When we finally do get around to selecting which of the corpgov put-ups will start (or continue) their own corptocracy, it's clear enough to me that scamming rich folks are not what we need more of.  Especially lawyers. Especially if they say one thing and vote another.  Especially if they use qualifiers (*depends what you mean by and such weasel-words). 

More of the same.  Guess we deserve it for being stupid, huh?  As the year goes on, the sleaziness comes more into the open as "secrets revealed" meme opens up more to daylight/inspection/review.  But for now, like the old Beatles song comes, "You say you want a revolution?"  Remember what started with an unjust tea tax....

At some point (*maybe around a protest of a veterans group in a few months) the meme will coalesce and become widely visible in the MSM....

Buying Government

If you really want an eye opener (on Saturday?  Bear with me...) put in "Lobbying Reform" in the Google news engine and see what you find.

A cynical sort might notice that the search returns are most about spending money getting to the 'right' places on the Hill...

• "Harris spent almost $1.6 million lobbying" reports AP/Forbes.

• "Millennium Pharma Spent $1.3M Lobbying" goes another headline.

• "Mortgage Brokers Group Lobbied on Reform"

When I read a story like "Manufacturing group sues over new lobbying disclosure rules" I think to myself "Gee, what chances does my $20 contribution to a candidate buy me?  Shucks, $20 bucks is not even a blip on the screen...

Buying governance is not what the Framers had in mind, I suspect.

Commodity Trading Report

Just an update, if you're interested in those 7-day oil options I mentioned yesterday that I bought Thursday morning for $170 each (3 of 'em,).  I sold one yesterday on the developing strength in oil late in the session, likely due to the increase tensions in the Middle East.  Sold (1) for $710.

With commissions and everything, the trade puts me up somewhere north of $100 - but the bonus is that I now have two "free rides" until next Wednesday night, and any move over $93.50 by oil between now and then goes into the kitty here.

I also sold one of my July wheat call options for $3,100 Friday.  My entry price for that one was $475 (*not including commissions and fees).  If you're paying attention here, means I have pocketed a handsome profit on the two wheat calls and after selling one, I still have one July wheat, which, oh joy of joys, is also playing with House Money, too.  I do love it when a plan comes together.

Best part: No paper work.  Unlike a stock account where I have to fill out line after line of transaction detail on the 1040, the brokerage account folks just 1099 me and that's that.  Simple.

All up, the return since my first trade in July of last year is 473.8% while the gain is a much more modest 373.8%.  Shucks, darn.  I will try to do better going forward. And I will keep you posted as I do.

Still, remember that I can (and very likely might) lose all, or a big chunk of this, any old time so commodity trading is not for the weak of heart.  It is a lot more efficient than blowing 2-3 days to go over to the gambling casinos at Bossier City, though.

Rights Left Department

The right of the American public to own guns is under fire (yes, a poorly formed pun) in DC as the government to trying to rewrite the unambiguous Second Amendment.  There's some hope that pressure from lawmakers will cause the Supreme Court to sign with gun owners, but as we have seen all-too-often, in an election year, politicians will say damn near anything.

(Remember the 90 days and we're out plan of the democorps when they we on the campaign trail?) 

The old saying that drifts through the back of my mind is "in times of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act".  George Orwell was just 23-years off in his timeline.  Or, as Mark Twain put it "If you don't read the newspaper, you are uninformed; if you do read the newspaper, you are misinformed." Yup...

Don't Question the Paradigm Department

Even though the Archbishop of Canterbury was only using Islamic Sharia as an example of business with a conscience, there's a growing call for him to resign.

Worst-Ever Tornado Season?

Maybe: A NOAA chart has us wondering about those linguistics.  Check it out:

As the gouging winds meme develops, bookmark this page for the coming months.

New And Improved War Department

"Putin, in speech, Assumes U.S. of setting off "New Arms Race".

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But wait!  I can't swallow that whole without holding it up to a little "reasonableness testing".  Any headlines about that it's really Prince Vlad the Bad who's pushing things along, too?

How about these?

• Japan says Russian military plane violates its airspace.

• Russian military base in Tajikistan to remain functioning.

• Russia is opening military missions in seven countries this year.

• Russia has been putting on a show of Air and Naval forces in the Arctic.

• Tone it down and tell us of flights NATO is telling Russia.

While it may be figured that most of these are 'holding' rather than expansion of the cold war, the showing off of the mobile version of the MARV'ed/MIRV'ed Topol M at the May 9th parade at the Kremlin is close enough to saber rattling for us to wonder about the sincerity of Putin.

Road To War: Reacters to Reactors

Our Saturday morning review of Middle East tension finds that Iran has started a second atomic power plant - at least according to a report. 

Then there are all those undersea cable cuts.  Here's a story about how an "Abandoned Anchor Cut Gulf Internet Cable."  Now, that may be a good cover story and all, but I've done my share of sailing and 11-thousand pound anchors don't just get up and walk around cutting cables...

Morals?  No Thanks...

We see that overseas 'sovereign wealth funds' are resisting calls  for a Code of Conduct.

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Zoom out with me now to the Big Picture:  The Anglo-West goes on a binge of issuing Liar's Paper all over the globe.  Then, holding the financial bag, the sovereign wealth funds want to take what Anglo-Western dollars they have and buy producing assets (*Western business and infrastructure).  So now, there's a discussion about a Code of Ethics.

Ain't that rich?  Sort of like telling a drunk that you've just pour half a bottle of rum into, that he shouldn't drink so much.

The only thing morals and money have in common is the 'm' and the 'o'.

Picture This

Polaroid is closing its film operations.  And at Eastman Kodak, the WSJ says the digital revolution in picture taking has cost 27,000 jobs.

Numbered

I don't know why this headline game me a smile: "Fifth Third sues First Horizon over dead deal."

One wonders what's forthcoming, too....  Have I really had that much coffee this morning? Yike!  (I reckon a yike is a singular word when you don't have enough surprise for a full plural "Yikes!")

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Coping: Greedy or Needy

"A Credit Card You'll Want to Toss" is the headline about a B of A credit card you won't want to use.  Even those of us with good credit and are never late will be subjected to rates as high as 28%.

High Mileage Cars

While the debate continues about when the exactly moment of Peak Oil was, we note that the Mexican super field Cantrell is expected to accelerate its output declines...

The coping hint here?  Park the ego and buy mileage not style when you go car shopping.

Reading List

"A Bubble That Broke The World" By Garet Garrett.  Summary is here.  Nice job by Generational Dynamics.

If have more time, the whole book is online here.

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Send snip and save comments/articles to george@ure.net

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Friday February 8, 2008

Partial Panic Postponement

As the old joke goes, "I've got good news, and I've got bad news..."  The good news is that the odds of the full-on outbreak of war in the Middle East is lower in the latest processing according to the time monks.  But, on the other hand, it has only moved out a few weeks. 

To add just a touch of detail:  In the predictive linguistics runs, there are several 'bins' if you want to think about it this way, where linguistics will slot things.  One (and the most immediate) is 3-days to 3 weeks, while the next is 3-weeks to 3-months (*months being lunar in web bot studies).

So while the 'outburst by Israel against [whoever] still has some presence in the shorter time frame, the Iranian 'hits' are more in the 3-weeks to 3-months range. 

On the other hand, maybe sooner than later as headlines report that "Iran Bolsters Syria's Missile Program to Target Israel" is going mainstream in Israeli media today.  Predictably, preemptive moves would be dusted off...

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Still, as one reader asked, "If this is so, then it would be an all-time no brainer to run out and buy a bunch of oil call options in the commodities market, so why wouldn't you do that?"

Well, even though it's the equivalent of giving money to the market, who's to say that I didn't buy a few $93.50 oil 7-day calls yesterday for $170 each?  A quick move up to $100 by oil over the next 6-days could return (before commissions and fees) of about $6,500.  To put this in horse-racing terms, that'd be a 38 to 1 payout on a long shot.  Those are the kind of odds I like - a lot. 

I can't emphasize this too much, though:  This is a wild man's bet that's almost certain to lose.  If you can't afford to throw away well over $200 per options (by the time you get commissions and fees into the entry price) you shouldn't even think about this kind of play.

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OK, having said that, there's a very interesting way to play commodity call options that my broker and I have kicked around - although we can't find anyone actually doing it (or at least talking about doing it).

The idea is that suppose you are pretty sure that oil is going to head back over $100 a barrel.  And better, because you might have some hints about how the future will arrive (*encounters with scarcity, for example, or war in some kind of window in the Middle East), then you could make a series of losing bets in high leverage call options - like the 7-day oils.  Or, July wheat.

If you are wrong about the 7-day oil move 5-weeks in a row, but are right on the 6-th week, you could still make money.  I'll explain.  Hand me that marker and I'll step up to the whiteboard.  What do they put in those markers...wowzer...where was I...oh yeah...

The first five weeks of this kind of play, you would lose (for the sake of discussion) $250 per option.  So on paper, that means you would have thrown in $1,250 and seen it all go "poof!".  But, rather than getting pissy about funding some 29-year old trader's 911 or party house on Long Island, you'd go ahead and place the 6th trade - so your now into the play $1,500.

But then - if you've got timings just right - along would come your 38:1 payout+  as oil goes to $100 and (in this example, you'd get $6500, less a little something in commish/fee, which would still leave you with about a 400% return (300% gain) on the sequence.  Oh, and instead of waiting years for your ship to come in waiting for dividends to compound, or for that 'socially responsible' mutual fund to come into vogue, you'd make more in 6-weeks than in 10-years of stock market roulette.

Did I mention that if oil went to $110 that your payout would be $16,500 less commish and fees) which adds a bit of spice?

But, I'll say this again, you've got to have some idea of how the future is going to work out to even think about this sort of thing.

Or.... if you have a little more patience, you  could just get a glimpse of something coming along (*encounters with scarcity/food shortages) and say "Hmmm...Gee I wonder if wheat will go up?" and buy some longer-term options (like my July wheat calls) and then just wait for events to come along, however they're going to, and not mess with the short-term trades.

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Oil, in case you have forgotten, is sometimes called "black gold" and although it's not written down anywhere, my gut tells me there might be a high correlation between gold movement and oil, so with gold moving back up this morning, and folks like Jim Sinclair hinting at $1,650 in the not too distant future, and the Fed's latest talking head worrying publicly about inflation being a little high for his tastes, well, seems to me that inflation is a real possibility.

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Oh - one other thought on the George & JB rolling commodity option idea: The 4 to 1 return over 6-weeks assumes that every time you 'spin the wheel' you lose 100% with an expired option.  Well, that might not happen.  The headline "Oil Rises a Second Day on Lower Output from North Sea, Nigeria" means that $93.50 oil is still on the table for next week, although if we could bag a 50% gain as a one-day trade that might be tempting.  Or, we might wait till events get a little closer, or we might just play the 'roll 'em forward' game a bit.

It probably won't work, but WTF, right? I'm not going to try it but for one week - we'll see.

Gettin' After Banksters

Suppose for a moment that you thought it was foolish for the US Government to pay interest on its own money.  Or, say that you thought the whole matter of interest - which requires inflation in order to service debt was a bad idea from the get-go and maybe those boys that invented algebra were also onto something with Islamic sharia banking rules.  What do you think would happen?

Well, while we don't know his thoughts on the former, the Archbishop of Canterbury has given the banksters a poke with his commend about the benefits of adopting some aspects of Islamic banking.

If he had simply suggested "not-for-profit" banking, or "abolition of interest" it probably wouldn't have gotten as much press.

Inflation,  Lowering Rates, Behind the Curtain

Yeah, yeah, interest is what screws over the economy, contributes to the boom and bust cycle, and steals purchasing power from the thrifty.  What of it? 

The Bank of England has lowered its rate to 5.25%.  Europe overall seems headed that way.

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Still, in some parts of the world, like Australia for instance, inflation is rolling right along and a rate hike to 7.25% may be coming.  Guess that will bring a little hot money down under.

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Inflation in India has unexpectedly rising to 4.11% - Gee, sorry about that if you're some corporate strategic planning genius who offshored jobs from the USA  to save money.  Payback's a bitch.

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Let's look behind the curtain, because as my deflationist pal Jas Jain is so fond of saying "It's the debt, stupid!".

The Federal Reserve reported yesterday that: " Consumer credit increased at an annual rate of 4-1/2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2007 and rose 5-1/2 percent over the year as a whole. In December, consumer credit increased at an annual rate of 2 percent."  Our disambiguation department reminds us:  Consumer Credit is really Consumer Debt - the banksters just don't like to advertise it, just like they send out revisions to credit card terms that require a microscope for most of us over 50 to read.  (*Don't start me on the "all contract terms and modifications must be in 12-point type" rant, because we don't have all day for me to sit around and whine.)

Admittedly, the drop from 8.2% consumer debt growth in November to 2.1% is December is a big move.

But what's worse, when you think about it, is that a 2.1% annualize rate of consumer debt increase is probably not an increase at all. 

How so?  Consider that we have a huge number of people who are fighting to hang on to McMansions (and more modest homes) and tons of layoffs going on (although by only counting people who still have some unemployment comp coming in, corpgov fosters the continuing illusion that unemployment is low - ha!).

How are people going to eat?   Some, no doubt by putting their food on a credit card.  Or, how about those continuing interest charges, now over 33% for some cardholders who have been unlucky enough to miss a payment?  I'd bet some of the 2.1% increase in credit card debt is really compounded interest from missed payments!  Is it all of the 2.1% increase for December?  Don't know because the Fed report doesn't offer a drill down like that.

I'd argue (and I expect Jas would agree) that when you're printing money hand over fist at the Fed, and people are being hosed with super-high interest and late charges, that real deflation is already here - you just don't think about things like the skipped payments compounding factor and it's just a matter of time till we get through the momentary overshoot period that we're in now and things come into crisp focus for most people.

Still, to rewrite the old statistics joke, if food prices are going through the roof and housing prices are going through the floor, you should - on average - be comfortable.  Right....and if you believe that....

Buried Story of the Day

A Credit Card Bill of Rights

With families being torn apart, huge layoffs going on that just don't seem to make it to the Mass Layoffs Reports, a whopping disparity between the corpgov 'illusion economy' and record-setting foreclosure rates, do you think a story about a little relief from credit card debt would be a) on the front page, b)( on page two or three, or 3) mostly not covered at all?

If you guessed 'mostly not covered, you're right.  But, check out this here press release:

MALONEY BILL TARGETS CREDIT CARD ABUSES

 

Legislation Reining in Unfair Interest Rate Hikes and Unjust Fees a Strong Step Forward New legislation introduced today by House Financial Institutions and Consumer Credit Subcommittee Chairwoman Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D-NY) and Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank (D-MA) curbs some of the most abusive credit card lending practices, consumer groups said.

 

“This legislation is an important step forward in eliminating the worst credit card tricks and traps that sap billions of dollars from Americans' wallets every year and illegitimately pump up issuers' profits,” said Travis B. Plunkett, legislative director of the Consumer Federation of America. “We commend Chairwoman Maloney for recognizing that these abuses contribute to the rising rate of card delinquencies and the need to rein in unfair practices to forestall an even greater crisis. The sub-prime meltdown demonstrates the importance of ending abusive lending practices when warning signs arise."

 

Among the key provisions of the “Credit Card Bill of Rights Act” are prohibitions on:

o Bait-and-switch interest rate and fee hikes for any or no reason at all during the life of the card;

o Assessing hidden and unfair interest rate charges by charging interest on balances already paid off;

o Unjustifiably maximizing interest charges by requiring consumers to pay off balances with lower interest rates before those with higher rates;

o Charging late fees when consumers mail their payments seven days in advance of the due date; and

o Applying certain unfair interest rate hikes retroactively to balances incurred under the old rate.

"Working families are the favorite targets of big banks and credit card issuers, paying more each year in unreasonable fees and credit card interest," said Stephen Lerner, assistant to the President and director of the Private Equity Project for Service Employees International Union. "SEIU will fight alongside Congress and Reps. Frank and Maloney to put a stop to the big banks' worst abuses."

Next thing you know, some state lawmaker will have the balls to take on the banking lobby and impose a 12% interest rate ceiling consumer interest rate charges in some state - and then we'll all see perhaps the greatest financial/grass roots revolution against the PTB that ever happened.  OK, maybe with the exception of the French Revolution.  Oui.

Family Trouble

The FBI targeting dozens of purported Gambino 'crime family' members.

The Runs: In, Out, and Sideways

In: Defender of the corpgov paradigm John McCain for the Tweedle-dees.

Out: Mitt Romney

Sideways:  Clinton/Obama

A Hitt

Score another 'coincidence' for Robert Hitt's "energy has to go somewhere" theory mentioned earlier this week.  Six dead in a city hall shooting in Missouri.

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Coping: Escaping to a Ranch

While Wall Street Whiz Barton Biggs has been advising in his new book at the well-off should have a stocked up place in the country as a survival strategy for what comes next, we can't help but notice that CNN founder Ted Turner has been buying up ranch land like crazy - he wants to own 2-million acres nationwide and he's within 40,000 acres of hitting that goal now.

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Not that I'm trying to walk in Ted's footsteps, but I told youi about 2-years ago around this time that we were buying 16-acres adjoining out initial 13 for $29,500.

The other day, I drove by a little 4.1 acre piece up the hill from us (no trees, no creek, no view to speak of, and on what passes for a busy road out here in the country - a dozen or so vehicles a day go by) with the idea of passing along the price and contact information to a reader who asked if I saw anything small and cheap to pass it along.

Well, that little 4.1 acre piece already went for the $30,000 asking price, and a ten acre piece up the road the other way (with an older three bedroom mobile on it) went for $67,500 in a hardship sale case.

If I were guessing, $5,000 an acre is about a fair price these days around here, so the 'on paper' return if sold would be on the order of a 244% return (144% gain) in less than two-years.

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A couple of books that have confirmed my sense that Baby Boomers might want to head for the hills/go rural, were Penturbia, the 5th mass migration, and Schizomania, both by retired UW Business Prof Jack Lessinger.  There's a Yahoo discussion group on the topic.

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Having lived on a sailboat for 10+ years, and more recently being out here on the ranch (off an on between consulting projects) since 2002, I've taken to labeling people as either "free spirits" or "coup dwellers." 

While people in big cities go to gyms (and buy things like treadmills), we've found that putting in a hundred feet of fencing a day, or building a new animal barn  (practical projects that ad value) not only provide the desired health outcome through a little exercise, but unlike the coup dwell gym membership, the rancherly projects drop something to the bottom line in terms of increasing net worth.

Last night, while we were stringing another 150 feet of goat fence, I made a mental note to mention that odd juxtaposition this morning:  Exercise in the city costs money while out here in the rural/farm kind of setting exercise makes money. 

OK, not the biggest breakthrough in thinking I've had, just one of those things that goes by.  With another 8,000 feet of fence to string - which I assure you will take much longer than 80 days, LOL -  I expect plenty more 'odd thoughts' will come along.  That one just seemed worth mentioning.

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Yeah, Corpgov Is Real

You're welcome to be skeptical of my frequent use of the term, but consider this headline next time you wonder "Am I getting a little paranoid":  "The FBI Deputizes Business" 

So no, you're not paranoid.  The world really is crazy.  And yes, corpgov is a fair label.

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Send snip & save ideas/comments to george@ure.net

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Thursday February 7, 2008

Pre-War Footwork?

Picture me impatiently tapping on a whiteboard, cup of coffee in hand, and speaking in an excited, almost aggravated voice:  "When government says 'don't worry' what should you immediately do?"  (Correct answer: worry.)

"And so when the time monks send out an email with the subject line  "ALTA 1008 - Don't Panic", what do you suppose you should do?"  (Correct answer {again}:  Panic!)

Without going into the details of it, the general sense of things is that (inside the next month)  Israel seems, at least linguistically, about ready to lash out with an attack on someone in the Middle East, and when that happens (again, linguistically) it is not going to have the expected outcome, and whatever it is, seems destined to bring down world scorn and abhorrence to the point where it will go into the record books as a military boner of historic proportions.

Fortunately, linguistic reads of the future always tend to overstate things because they're based on deep archetype feelings - which by their nature are exaggerated.  Still, just the 'heads up' in the form of "Don't Panic" advise is enough to send me scurrying to the headline scanners and feed readers around here searching for telltales of what might turn into a "first use" of the you-know-what's against either Syria or Iran in coming days.

What's coming off the scanners and feed readers is not encouraging and will figure into my personal planning for what's to come.

• One headline sure to be missed in MSM (*mainstream media) is that Indian recently launched a spy satellite for Israel - something that has *not* escaped notice in Iran.

• Iran, on the other hand has Israel quite worried because they now have space vehicle launching capabilities as demonstrated by their Safir-1 test.  By the way, www.debka.com which is very well connected to Israeli sources notes that both Washington and Russia are not pleased with this development as it ratchets up tensions all over the Middle East.

• And speaking of Debka, they have a big story up this morning about how "Hamas expands missile targeting area as Israel forces hit back in N. Gaza. Barak threatens harsher military action."  Linguistically, that use of 'threatening harsher military action' is not to be ignored.

• Especially when it's accompanied by as many as 9 communications cable breaks, as we reported yesterday, and a virtual disappearance of regular internet traffic to and from Iran that continues this morning.

• Several board around the internet are now writing about how (and this clip is typical) "The hour is upon the Nation Of Israel and great danger is at hand for the United States."

• Iran has started testing advanced centrifuges which could speed their nuclear program.

• Almost predictably, word is being spread by the Washington news machines that Al Qaida is planning an attack on the U.S.  Of course, if we have an attack, I'd have to reckon it'd be about an even money bet whether any such attack was an actual outburst of Islamic fundamentalism, or whether it was a false flag op to spin the US into support of a 'sudden war' in the Middle East which would likely feature first use of nuclear bunker-busters.

• US and Iraqi forces have released what is claimed to be an al Qaeda video training children for terrorism and war.

• Meantime, Israel is planning to beef up their perimeter with a fence on the Egyptian border.  (Don't go asking me why our DHS can't build a fence along our border with Mexico - you already know the answer to that one - too much money being made with the current set-up - plain and simple.)

• The Chinese are noticing that Israel vows to intensify Gaza operations.

It doesn't take a genius to tie all these data points together into something big - and ugly.  We're not the only folks who are reporting on the "Iran Oil Bourse, US Dollar and Internet Cables" story, either.

We may, however, be one of the few places around that goes out on a limb and says "Expect Israel to lash out, perhaps in the next week, and attempt some serious butt-kicking in the Middle East, but perhaps doing so in a way which backfires and results in heaps of world public opinion/scorn being laid at Israel's feet.

For the next couple of days, the time monks are rushing to get a 7th part of the current ALTA (*Asymmetric Language Trend Analysis) predictive linguistics run out to their subscribers before the war actually breaks out.  Or a little more precisely, before the attack which will be a military cluster**ck with multi-generational impacts.

As always, I'll add the caveat that all of their work is done for our personal 'entertainment and amusement' so if future events delivered by the Universe show up looking remarkably like the ALTA reports suggest, and the little snips and bits we put out in public via this site, please don't blame us for the unfortunate coincidence - go blame the Universe.  As time machines go, this one is chewing gum, baling wire, and prolog. Besides, some things have been inevitable for 63-years.  It's only been a matter of 'when'.

Oh yeah, two other things: Remember who told you about it before the fact should events work out as they seem to be headed at the moment and above all:

Don't Panic.  

The Runs:  Democorp Deadlock

OK, so we see that Hillary and Barack are virtually tied for delegates.  Raise your hand if you care.  If your hand's up, you don't comprehend the full meaning and potential impacts of today's lead story.  Go look up this word.

The Winds

With more than 50-dead from the unusual tornado outburst this week, about the next thing to expect will be the criticism of the Feds recovery efforts that seems likely/linguistically due to be coming along shortly.

Mexico's Kidnapping Rings

Kidnapping cells are springing up in Mexico, working the US touristas over good.  But wait!  Why is there nothing about this on the State Department's Travel Warning page?  The State's October 24 travel alert mentions kidnapping, however we have to wonder how many people will dig into State's web site - where's the press conference and the outrage, we're wondering?

---

Police in Mexico are reported caught in the middle between a crackdown on the drug cartels) and retaliation which has been violent and now targets judges.

Readers Writes

Are banks increasing security, or is this reader's experience an outlier/Black Swan?

"I drove up to a Wachovia branch this morning and was surprised to see a security guard standing outside the bank entrance. He was uniformed and wore a wired earpiece which I guess was connected to a radio of some sort. It looked like the uniform badging read "Securitas", but I'm not 100% sure.

I have never seen a security guard at the entrance to any Wachovia branch I have visited."

A good question, but no doubt about it, if we were to experience a 'run' on a bank in the US, like British's recent experience, then having beefed-up security would sure make sense.

Markets

Stocks head for a lower open today.

My deflationist pal Jas Jain and I will be looking with profound interest on the Consumer Debt numbers (which the Fed insists is credit, but they are on the other end of the stick) when it comes out this afternoon.

---

We already have a hint, perhaps in that Wal-Mart says the January sales for their stores was less than expected.

The Courts

Headline: "Court: Mom can't sue over circumcision". 

---

Some serious remarks along with a whole pile of punch lines come to mind, but there's a writer's strike on and it just wouldn't be right -- especially if it ends shortly -- to use material that might end up in a monolog on one of the late nighters...

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Coping: Stocking Up

I've been doing a little bit of thinking - just on the off chance that the time monks get a spectacularly correct 'hit' about this Middle East turmoil - what is the most important thing you can do today?

Answer: stock up.  Are you ready for 'encounters with scarcity' that have been in modelspace for this year (shading toward Spring/Summer)?

We'll be  topping off supplies between now and the close of the markets Friday.  Extra batteries, more meds, foods, a check of the genset, seeds for a couple of years - that kind of thing.  A couple of more barrels of diesel for the generator with preservative added, of course.

If we get the kind of outcome that seems to be fuzzily developing in the Middle East, the US could get some serious blow-back from pending events and that means we might need to think about what an oil embargo would mean.  Linguistically 'encounters with scarcity' due soon would be kick-stated by such an outcome of a 'sudden war'.  So would the pogrom and calls for 'revolution' meme

Like my military pals say, though, no one ever gave a war that wasn't seen coming.

Go shopping.

Paper Airplanes

Think you're wasting time building paper airplanes when the boss (or spouse) isn't looking?  Hah!  Check this out.

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Around The Ranch

No. Not today.  We're going shopping.  Stuff we'll use anyway.  Just like to live a bit ahead of events. Just in case.

Wednesday February 6, 2008

Winds, Winners, War - Worries

The problem with predictive linguistics is that we get to see events coming, but often the placement of the items on the timeline is made difficult because big events in the near term 'read' about the same as  HUGE events further along the timeline, although I try to give some insights to the nature of what's ahead, here and there, as we go.  Not that it's a precise read of the linguistic runs from HPH, but because after chasing down news for so long, I've just sort of developed a sense of how events come along.

You might recall I recently expressed a concern that we were seeing some really strange things in the "Wind" descriptor set of modelspace.  Moreover, because it's been out there for a really long time, we knew that when it began to show up it would be a 'biggie'.  Sadly, we got the first taste of that overnight as at least 26-people have been killed, with some reports going as high as 34,  by almost 'out-of-season' tornados which ripped through the South and lower Midwest last night.

As you may recall, when I was on the Coast to Coast AM radio show, on January 2nd, I specifically mentioned what?  Winds and specifically tornadoes could be setting all kinds of records and feeding in to what we characterize as Diaspora.   Click here to look at the show notes that have been up since January 2 and look at the April slide.

My concern is really two-fold:  First, the tornado 'season' is off to a very ugly start and seems from the language shifts (descriptions going to gouges land have appeared in the past) that we could have a very ugly weather picture between now and summer.  And then, longer term, we have language going to a 'great stillness' of winds (possibly fulfilled by the bad smog outbreak in Appalachia recently, but that could also just be a prequel), and then with or after our Global Coastal Event in 2009, more talk about winds of even more impact.

The wind situation is so serious in modelspace that for more than 6-months, Cliff and Igor have been pressing me to "Dig a hole for you and Elaine..."  We might just do that.  Gonna be a long Spring, looks like,  here at the south end of Tornado Alley.

The Runs:  Winners?

Although the outcome is not really clear on the democorp side (I fear the worst), John McCain was the clear winner on the republicorp side. 

While it would be inappropriate to question the 'wisdom of the voters' on the one hand, the absence of auditable information from electronic voting machines continues to spark discussion on the 'net that the outcome is 'wired' in a manner of speaking.

It's the kind of outcome that drives otherwise rational people to inflicting liver damage.

War, Worries

If you were disappointed in the first of the day's headlines, you'll want to pack a few extra Tums for the rest of this week because there's something going on in the Middle East which has me really concerned.  I don't mean just the informal 'we've been hearing about having our rocket rooms ready' kinds of comments from Israel, but there are other indicators that something's up.

For example,  here's an email that caught my eye:

(Subject line) 9 cut undersea cables

Hi George and Cliff,

Many more cables have been cut than the mainstream USA media are reporting. Here is what I dug up:

http://www.rense.com/general80/cable.htm 

best, Richard Sauder

To be sure, the pressures that are building for a war expansion are almost palpable.  I suppose I should explain.

First, we look at the condition of the financial markets and the money that keeps the wheels of commerce in the USA rolling.  We see that the Federal Reserve's H.3 Reserves of  Depository Institutions shows that for the last week of January, both on a seasonally adjusted and not seasonally adjusted basis, all the financial reserves (required reserves to support the fractional banking system) were negative.  In other words, the fraction in fractional reserve has disappeared.

We're now in an 'all borrowed'  banking system.

While you let sink in, you might want to click here and read, as one tipster puts it:

"[read] Fourth paragraph probably/possibly explains why the Jan 08 reserves were Negative 8.75 Bil from the earlier submission of the non borrowed reserves on this page "

To simplify it as best I can, it looks like reserves are being used as rolling dough to keep the big banks liquid. 

I suppose you have figured out that if they can't make it through this period of illiquidity that would spell bank runs and the like? 

Which is not to predict that it will happen, but there are plenty of stories out there going to the idea that you'll want to check your money to make sure it's split up into 'bite-sized'  ($100,000 or less per bank accounts) as the FDIC seems to be getting ready for a run on a major bank.

---

Let's go back to the cable cuts for a few moments, because another reader (one with more knowledge than you and me about how undersea cable works) sent this:

"When I was with AT&T and later Lucent, I used to sell the optical fiber to Simplex and Alcatel who made the submarine cables used in some of the landings in Flag. These cables were made in a continuous length with repeaters spliced during the manufacture. Why damage a cable when you just have to shut off the electronics at the head ends. Repairs are not easy and will take time. Not many ships available to do this and you may need a new piece of cable and/or a repeater to splice in at the repair.

You could tap into normal single mode fiber. I like to see what Jim has to say about removing the reverse wrapped helical steel strength members and then getting to the optical fibers in a continuous metal tube that resides in a thick plastic (HDPE)? rod. I am sure now that PTB have the technology to do the unbelievable.

keep up the excellent work... as long as you are allowed to."

The view that cable cuts are an attempt to limit Iran's world markets access, now that they are within days of brining a non-dollar denominated oil trading exchange online, has pushed the now lame duck Bush administration into a serious corner:  If they are going to attack Iran, or provide assistance for a US proxy in the region to carry out the attack on our behalf) time is running out.

---

We're now inside a 'window' where a false flag terrorist attack on US soil could be just what's needed to accomplish an agenda that would include:

• Placing blame on an exogenous event (outside the markets) as a proximate cause of a possible retest of the 2,000 lows.  [Side note, that'd be around Dow 7,500, so have you rolled your assets into something other than stocks?  This is not advice, but simply a contingency planning kind of question.]

• It would get the 'banker off the hook'

• It could be used to invoke lots of additional power for government including things like limiting withdrawals from banks, severely limiting the free speech presently allowed on the internet, and allowing for rationing of not only energy, but also food as a mechanism of corporate/government control.

With all this weighing, we then start to look at timing, and as my very worried attorney noted in a call yesterday (when he heard about cable break #5)  February 8th is the dark of the moon which give gen-3 and gen-4 fighting systems maximal advantage.

From an execution standpoint, the idea time for a strike in the Middle East (ME) would be just after the market close on Friday, or in the case of a false flag operation, any time between now and then, especially if the Dow threatens the 11,634 level.  If we take that out, the PowersThatBe (PTB) would sure need someone to blame...and a point of action to rally around.

Keeping an Iranian oil bourse shut pretty clearly makes economic sense to US (corpgov) interests and off in the background, we see the same kind of 'slant drilling for oil across the border' claims being made by Iraq against Iran that were a short-term precursor to the Kuwaiti/US invasion of Iraq back in the early 1990's.  It's almost like the same playbook is in use.

---

The outbreak of war is only a speculative case - a mid-week thought exercise, at least for now, due in part to the commodity price action.  I expect that if we were going to have a shooting war (escalation of the regional ME conflict) that we'd see healthy gains (read: limit up) commodity moves in oil, grains, and gold.  So far, oil is not going up, but a strong push up tomorrow and Friday might be something to watch for. 

Meantime, National Intelligence Director Michael McConnell is telling the Senate's Intelligence Committee (sic) that the US see Russia, China, and OPEC as financial threats to the country.  Any connection with the digital umbilical cords being cut?

For today, I'll just take a split shot Americano tall with a side of Pepto.  Oh, and a shake.

Story Buried

Not too much out there, but terrible beyond words: soaring US military suicide rate.

Memeering, III

"Spies battleground turns virtual" is the headline in the Washington Post this morning.  Not necessarily spies only, as we've explained.

Grains and Gains

If you're watching my wheat trade, it's now sporting a return of  500% (400% gain if you prefer to think of it that way)  since January 9th.

I should probably be looking for some way to 'tip the dealer' when I cash out of these.  But not yet.  I was talking to an Eastern Washington farmer southeast of Yakima (WA) yesterday and he's telling me elevator prices are still going up.

Not to illustrate the point to blatantly, but if you look at what less than 30-days in these wheat options has done, its the equivalent of having bought the Dow at 2453 (not counting commissions and dividends) which was way back in...ummm...Oh, gosh, January of 14th of 1991 the Dow was at 2,483.

This is *not*  trading advise.  I guess I've never worried much about long term investing because there really are ways for the aggressive (read: willing to lose a lot of money trying) player to make serious bank without tying up their money for 17 years, or so.

No, I still haven't smoked that $600 pre-revolution Cuban cigar yet.  Maybe when I take some big money off the table...

Bond Market In Crisis

Meantime, the financial pressure is just causing all kinds of distortions.  Broker/strategist Robin Landry complained to me yesterday that "George, the bond market is spooked.  I've had an offer out on a good solid Oklahoma utility bond (5.75%, due 2024 or so, if I recall) and I can't even get a bid!"

Of course, what's going on is that should MBIA or Ambac have continuing problems, then what is now AAA paper could be downgraded - possibly as far as BBB.  Sure, the discussions continue on MBIA and Ambac, but that's not where it stops.  "Banks exploring bailout of bond insurer FGIC-sources" report.

But, even though he's willing to take some hit on this bond sale (in the form of a deeper discount) Landry's point is simple:  "No bid, George!  Not even from a vulture!  This has never happened."

Which is why a circle back to War and Worries above...the bond market is many times larger than the stock market...

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Coping:  Tight Money Fallout

One obvious area: Taxes.  Here's an interesting email:

George,

Sorry for the intrusion.

As a retired Airline Captain and a subscriber to both the BOT and your Premium Service I was tapped on the side of the head by the information in the following article. The information covers the Tax and Real Estate MELTDOWN in only one State of the 50 members of our rapidly fragmenting Union.

For me the article is verification of the accuracy of your homework and the Quantum Reality of the BOT.

Your Information Pipeline is MONTHS and sometimes YEARS EARLY!!!

As for todays DOW meltdown, No Blind Side Surprises---I thank all who are part of the BOT Matrix!

Charge More for your Premium Service-Clif, give Igor a raise!!!

Link: Unpaid taxes amount to 'cheap loan' -- Deseret Morning News"

Another area of fallout is that arson my start to rise:

"Just a quick note. On the Minneapolis TV there is a repeating story. It seems that foreclosed houses are going up in flames, about one per week. A solution to the foreclosure problem. Sorta like the Time Monks say."

Doooh!

On the more cheerful side of today's events, A reader responds to our challenge of Tuesday:  What other states (besides Alaska) have both a Homer and a Simpson?

"Simpson GA is in SE GA, near the Alabama line, right near Ephesus and Roosterville.

Homer Georgia, as opposed to nearby Comer, Georgia is in NE part of the state near Hebron just off Mt.Sinai Rd.

A coincidence of biblical proportions? I think not."

The way the weather is going in Georgia lately, I wonder if they'll be planting Webber blue agave there, next...

Pack Dog

Daughter Denise has come up with an innovative way to get groceries home from the store - and up three flights of stairs.  "Load up the dog" is what she says at the supermarket checkout stand.  From there, her Labradoodle,. Sherman, takes over...

People don't seem to remember that lots of what we call "pets" actually have their roots in something other than sitting on laps. 

Dogs were used for hunting, herding, pulling sleds and sledges, not to mention their watchdog roles, yet many owners don't take the time to train their dogs to help out in some way.  I have to admit I'm quite proud of Denise and her training of Sherman - he's damn near smart enough to hold public office.  Well, OK, smarter than some.

Same with cats.  Our 'outside' cats - Pusscilla and Zeus (who is slowly warming up to us and will now eat with 10-feet or us) actually earn their keep by mousing and snaking with an occasional big spider thrown in for good measure.

Having had a pet that was well-trained - and being around some that have been truly exceptional (including Sherman) I can't think of a much better reason to turn off TV than to spend time with the furry part of the family.

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Tuesday, February 5, 2008

Urgent: Cable Cuts Now Total Five!

From our "eyes open" and be ready for the ME to go hot, not only are sources in Israel reporting that unofficially folks are being told to ready their safe rooms, but we now see that telecommunications cable breaks servicing that part of the world are now up to 5!

"A total of five cables being operated by two submarine cable operators have been damaged with a fault in each. These are SeaMeWe-4 (South East Asia-Middle East-Western Europe-4) near Penang, Malaysia, the FLAG Europe-Asia near Alexandria, FLAG near the Dubai coast, FALCON near Bandar Abbas in Iran and SeaMeWe-4, also near Alexandria. "  Source Link

About the drop in the price of gold today:  Could this be a 'beat down' to let big players in on the cheap before something goes hot??  We're scanning for more 'telecom breaks' which might be a precursor to things getting ugly.  That could be very bad for the equities markets as well...

Budgets: Federal & Personal

While the bulk of MSM (*mainstream media) is tripping over one another trying to out-write political cleverness, and yes, there are some good summary stories out there,  we'll just wait until the delegate votes are counted and we see how poorly the illusion of genuine governance can be maintained -- without a paper trail for the most part.  However, while the conspiratorially minded will declare that McCain and Clinton already have things 'wired' (which is not to say they don't), we'll amuse ourselves with the more mundane task of sorting out the kind of things that matter:  Dollars and who's got them and how they're coming for ours.

---

The BIG budget, of course is the $3.1-trillion dollar behemoth unveiled by the Decider on Monday.  

Here's my budget suggestion of the day:  We ought to have a law that would read: "Whenever public dollars are spent, it shall be illegal for all elected members of Congress to vote on any appropriate which they have not read in its entirety." 

That might slow them down a bit.

And second, it almost goes without saying, since most working people have to take drug tests, there "Shall be no dispersal of any welfare or so-called entitlement monies to any person failing a drug test for 90-days."  Turn about is fair play.

I suppose that's wishful thinking, but it would slow down spending at both ends of the pipe, seems to fit my 'common sense' approach to things, and above all, promotes equality and responsibility.

Not that Der Decider cares - he's pushing a budget mess onto his successor.

Budget-Driven Diaspora

While the Budget fiddling continues in Washington, we continue to receive reports about how the personal budgets of Americas are blowing up all over the place.  Here's a typical email to give you a sense of it:

George, Half way through Super bowl Sunday's Peoplenomics report, and guess what? My wife plays the voice mail our landlord left on her phone earlier today. ALL his houses are going into foreclosure. Hopefully, we will find out tomorrow how much time we have left before we have to move. Since it's 10 PM, I figured I would rip off an email to you, then read the rest of the report before I get absolutely hammered. Woohoo.

Diaspora....it's not just treated with Pepto Bismol anymore.... Peace and chicken grease...

By the way, what are the chances for the average couple finding a rental with 4 1/2 dogs, 2 cats, 2 rabbits, and a part time live-in daughter and her dog?

I would say not too good.

Like Samoyeds?

I know what you're thinking "Come on, George, this guy is just an outlier in the data, a Black Swan of sorts...yeah sorry, but just one family, so lighten up."

Oh really?  How about this account from the real front lines of the economy:

"Hi George!

I just got to take a breather from an extremely long week working as a tax professional for a national tax preparation firm. This week I prepared over a hundred tax returns and spoke to more than 150+ taxpayers. Boy, does that kind of interaction really put things in focus. Thought you'd be interested in some of the things I saw and heard over the last week. I work in a blue collar/low income area.

First of all filings in general. The last few days of January and first few of February are our busy period due to the socioeconomic area I work in. Our numbers are collapsing this year and we're twiddling our thumbs during what is normally an extremely busy time. IRS filings are down 20% over the same time last year. Some of this is because the AMT patch is causing delays for taxpayers with education credits or residential energy credits, but not all of it.

Second, construction. Most of my clients with construction related jobs -- general construction, concrete, carpentry, masonry, building supplies & materials, truck drivers -- are reporting cut hours, lost jobs and many have unemployment forms in hand. I thought the feds were reporting job creation in the construction category...

Third retail. Retail workers are reporting smaller employer profits and cut hours. One night stocker told me they are using their entire shift nightly to jump up prices on literally everything in Wal-Mart. I verified this when I did my "needs" shopping and noted most grocery items and paper items I used to buy there had jumped 25-27% since last month. The store was also only using two open registers on a Sunday, backing the cut hours statements.

Last item is taxpayer's perceptions. In almost every single case when I got to the "bottom line" and showed them what they had earned during the year the client would exclaim "it couldn't be that much". Other variations included "No way!", "It didn't feel like we made that much" and "I thought we made way less than last year". Out of 100 returns, I had to work with two families who had a foreclosure in January. People are feeling pinched, and it's showing in the tax office."

Economic theory may say that the best way to bail people out of these tough economic times is by cutting interest rates for the central banker's club,. but that doesn't help at the 'street' level and by the time people figure it out, the politicians (all veteran insiders beholding to corpgov) will have been selected in the "voting" going on today.

Even in areas of the country where there has been relatively less economic fallout, things are turning bad:

A guy I know has worked at ****** for 25 yrs. He works at the Tacoma Mall in the furniture dept.

FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE HE HAS WORKED FOR THEM, THEY ARE CUTTING HOURS....HE IS DOWN TO 35 PER WEEK, WITH 25 YEARS SENIORITY.....

WOW!!

So much for the PNW bulletproof economy...

So much for the whole economy, actually: And it's not like US workers are alone...when corpgov goes cannibal it's Jimmy Eats World. (*If you're not tracking, go read the lyrics to the group's song Bleed American...)

It's not over yet:  The latest from Challenger, Gray & Christmas says January job cut plans have surged 69%.  Remember the predictive linguistics about the Spring '09 job crash to come along?  This is your leading edge of it, sad to say.

---

While I'm sitting here watching my wheat commodity call options take off (*return [money in plus gain] of 352.5% since January 9th, or a gain [not counting money in] of 252.5%]  I calmly note that the Google news search tool comes up with more than 32,000 hits for the term "shortage" this morning.  Two years ago when I started looking (because that's when linguistics started going to the idea of encounters with scarcity) we were looking at 11,000 hits a day on average.

Neighbor up the hill noted last night something to the effect that "Yeah, about the only place I don't see inflation is on my paycheck..."  Maybe that's what 'low inflation" is about, you think?" Uh huh.

---

And - like this isn't enough (corporate cannibalism bites humans) then what about all those 'liar's paper' investments we printed up coming home to buy America for foreigners?  Oh yeah...that.  Hmmm...

A bit too cynical for you?  Let me offer a positive thought then:

Zillion Dollar Idea for Wal-Mart

Know anyone in the corporate hierarchy of Wal-Mart?  Tell them here's a kick-butt idea that would build customer loyalty and win the gratitude of a nation:  Have Wal-Mart publish a monthly inflation index.  Just take everything in the and report an "all items" index, and then everything in the grocery section and report it as a food inflation/deflation index.

That way, people who are a little skeptical of government reports (gee, wonder why that might be?) would have a second source and I think for that, most of us would be damn grateful.  Wal-Mart is big enough and national enough in scope that it would maybe be like that "Kid, you don't want to go to jail movie..." (Scared Straight) and might shed some daylight into hedonic adjustments...Out here at the ranch ground sirloin is *not* the same as a sirloin steak.

Worries in Israel

There's a small chance - but worth mentioning - that all hell is about to break loose in the Middle East wars.  A snip from an email to me from inside Israel this morning notes that "in any case such a fast and prayer day as we are having today has not been called for since immediately before the second intifada."

Eyes open on this...

Wind Farms Blowing It...

From our "Doing good is doing bad" department: We hear out of Europe that British military types are all atwitter about the discovery that large wind farms create 'blind spots' for air defenses. Bly me....  Speaking of Bligh...

No Tony Award

Speaking of Brits and blowing things:  Looks like some organized opposition has surfaced to Tony Blair's plan to conquer...I mean head up... the European Onion...  Bet this brings tears to your New World Odor eyes...I'm so sure.

Great Firewall Of....

I was asking yesterday whether UrbanSurvival would be blocked by the Chinese.  Turns out, no, it's cool there:

"I'm in Beijing right now working as an engineer in the oil business (I make it back to Houston and Palestine every now and again as a matter of fact). Anywho, I check your site from my apartment every night before bed time (you update at 10pm or so my time). I'm using a Chinese ISP. As for other sites, Google video and YouTube can get a little squirrely every once in a while and after two years I still can't get on lifeaftertheoilcrash.net although peakoil.com  works fine. Who knows?

Welp you've got at least one subscriber in Beijing who can hear you loud and clear (or is it read you loud and clear?)."

Other Readers Writes

Like this one:

"So I am curious to ask, if you can make [data] runs using specific words with the bot technology such as "scarcity," have you run anything for positive outcomes, such as "success" or "abundance" or "survival" or "optimism" or "rescue" or "solution" or whatever that might give us some slant on where to focus our attention besides besides just on fear-based survivalism?"

Scarcity isn't a word we went looking for - pops up in serendipitous mode.  But, oh, sure, the technology works fine on anything you want to get a read on in the future, except that by their nature, bad news events propagate ac5ross time back to our present better than 'good news' events.  The reason is that good news tends to be of a personal nature, and bad news is "See it live now" kind of stuff which synch's up people's minds...

If you're interested in a private run, it'll set you back $20,000+ (or so, less for long term clients) and you'd have to write to moon@halfpasthuman.com. They don't do personalities, military, or terrorist stuff, so don't ask about that... Private data run clients are happy with the results...

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Coping: Memeering, II

I put today's follow up note on "memeering" (see yesterday's story) into the 'coping' area because most people find themselves so buried in their daily information stream that they don't spend much time looking at what's in the stream and how that might impact them at subconscious/ below perception threshold levels.

The best follow-up came from a reader who offered this:

"Your article triggered several things in my memory, some of which have been there for a reasonably long time. I share them with you for what they are worth.

First, “the subtle effort to…” well, yes, that is what we were attempting to do to foreign populations in several circumstances. We used to call it Psychological Operations (PSYOP), and the new son of PSYOP, Information Operations (IO), seems to be following in those foot steps with a wider shoe. The focus of non attributed PSYOP on a US population was strictly forbidden by law. The indications that this is no longer the case is clearly unsettling in many ways. The identity of the source/s is a matter which may play well in political circles later this year as ”secrets revealed”.

Some 40 years ago on assignment in the DC area, I kept coming up with the feeling that there was more going on than could be laid at the foot of the nominal leadership, military or civilian. I was deep in the planning for the future at that time, so I had access to virtually all plans. I suspected something, it just didn’t feel right, but I couldn’t catch the pattern. The advent of more powerful analytic tools such as the Analyst Notebook and Link Analysis has perhaps opened the doors for other approaches today.

Civil programs for citation analysis (to track the contributing sources of published papers) and the earlier versions of the Touchgraph program (for tracking relationships between URLs) could be put to good use tracking or verifying such suspected relationships, as I’m sure you and the HPH lads have considered.

Even data mining and matching of textual fragments is now used in academic circles to verify proper foot noting in college papers. Time lining of text fragments among various sites is a mere step away in something like an Analyst Notebook or other similar programs.

Prolog programs, data filters and Robert Hitt. Before Hitt there was a book, “Soviet Impregnational Propaganda” (1982) by a Baruch A Hazan, He claimed to be involved with setting up the Soviet Propaganda programs during the Cold War period. Chapter One of the book looks at the basic model for by-passing the mental filters of a target by linking a new idea (your idea of a seed term) to something that would normally be acceptable for passing through the mental and experiential filters we all hold. (The book is available used for under $5)

By extension, and taking a concept from neuro-linguistics, the use of a “reverse mirror” approach to introduce a previously foreign, even rejected, concept or term without the conscious recognition of the subject, and thereby build rapport and acceptance, is certainly within the realm of the possible. Look at the growth of socialist tendencies in the US over the last century, or decade for that matter. It is also possible that the very human trait of wanting to appear to be “in the know” or smarter is at work. An analogy would be the proverbial good idea mentioned by a loyal worker, who, three weeks later is startled to hear his idea coming out of the bosses mouth without credit being given. It takes about that long for an idea to be bounced against your own values, matched to your own desires, and to forget the source. If periodically reinforced by subtle repetition, the idea finds less and less resistance at the mental filter level as its familiarity increases and the good it can do is emphasized.

As for the sources, you may be picking up on the echoes of the Rhodesian Circles and their later off shoots in the Anglo case (some people just won’t let the empire die). The Middle East may be reflecting the broad influence of the Muslim Brotherhood (who learned the methods from the British in the years between the Assassins and Al Queda), although the actual power structure there is much deeper. Other...well, several continental opportunities exist there.

You have the data and terms or themes in the accumulated files of HPH, they are linked to the date time groups and sources, I’m sure, and the pattern is now open for examination. Time, terms, intro and repetition sites can be identified and clustered. Dragons can be tracked to the lair, and the light of day may be all that is needed to show where the fire must be applied to burn out the stench.

As I said, just some observations. Keep up the good work. I may bring matches."

Free linguistics lesson:  See the word "Impregnational"?  Not exactly a word that you probably trip over every day.  Initial redibility of writer: Extremely high.  Book ordered. 

Reference to Analyst's Notebook?  Another not-your-every day kind of software outside certain circles.  Goes on my 'thinking about it' list.

End linguistics lesson.  You are what you think.

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Got some arcane knowledge of general interest?  Pass it along to george@ure.net - thanks!

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Around the Ranch: Fencing, Alaskans

The nanny goat who is due is still not delivering.  She's close...so it's just a matter of when...I'm not a veterigoatian.  (*My word, send royalties if used, thanks)

About the only other rancherly thing to note is that Elaine & I stretched out another 100 feet or so of fence last night.  Another thousand feet and the new pasture will be ready.  I've become rather good at smashing in T posts with the bucket on the tractor, lacking the patience to use the fence post pounder which, at 25 pounds a whack, has gotten really old.  Slamming a front-loader bucket down may not sound nice to the hydraulics, but if you've only got three posts to move in order to line the fence up just so, it's faster to put them in with the bucket-slamming than walk up to the shop to get the tool, and walk back to the work site.  Quarter mile hike and sweat versus putting gravity and the bucket to work.  Easy choice.

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I received a nastygram on Monday from a reader who said I had misspelled a city in Alaska and had written Home instead of something else.  'Need to use your spell checker - and reference to Nome like that are inexcusable' was the idea.  Well, a quick check of the story and it was not referring to Nome, it was referring to Homer, Alaska.  A caffeine induced jitter apparently underpowered my attempt to smash the "R" key.

But this brings up a marvelous time sink for the geographically enamored: What other state besides Alaska has both a Homer (a city there) and a Simpson (pass) geographical reference?  No wonder the latest Simpson movie keys in on the frozen (for now) North.  Are there others?  (Boy take this on and you've got way too much time on your hands...)

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Say, if you know anyone in the liquor distribution business, have them drop me a line - working on the national launch of the high tech tequila...will be doing non-destructive testing of its reduced hangover properties this weekend, perhaps. 

If tomorrow election results bring us a McCain/Clinton for a pairing, I might move that up a few days...

Monday February 4, 2008