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Connecting The Dots

Two remaining curious dots from the satellite "shoot-down" this week.  First, a couple of expert emails from genuine rocket surgeons:

"I used to work at a Rocket test facility, were we testes satellite engines. There are 2 type of engines Bi-propellant and Mono-propellant. No matter which type the engines were the explosion would burn both the Oxidizer and the Fuel.

The typical liquid fuels used for a Bi-propellant engine are N2O4 (Nitrogen tetroxide) the Oxidizer and and UDMH (Unsymmetrical Dimethylhydrazine) the Fuel. For a Mono-propellant engine MMH (Monomethylhydrazine).

The bi-propellant engine mixes the 2 liquids together in the combustion camber. The mono-propellant uses a heated catalyst bed and the liquid passes through the bed to ignite the fuel.

Here is a link to a bi-propellant engine http://www.astronautix.com/props/n2o4udmh.htm "

Now, after your spelling quiz on the chemical names is turned in, it gets more interesting with the second email:

"Dear George,

I read your blog frequently and wanted to comment on the intercept. 1st--oxygen is not required. There is a lot of kinetic energy in this kind of impact and it would make a lot of light. 2nd--having said that, it didn't look right to me.

I was the ***** ********* on the first successful space intercept on June 10, 1984--the Homing Overlay Experiment. This kind of collision should produce a prompt plasma flash which I did not see here.

When objects hit at those speeds, the materials actually ionize. I'm suspicious that it did not hit. There are other ways to make it look as if it might have hit. It could well be a deception operation."

With headlines like "Pentagon: Satellite Debris Not a Danger" the folks outside of corpgov land are left wondering if "Satellite shoot-down fuels fears of arms race".

The Nice, Quiet War

That Turkey has invaded Iraq is not yet getting the same kind of prime time MSM coverage that we'd expect if it were a little less NATO-friendly country involved. Say, Iran for example?  Where's the neocon outage here?

Bigger War

We read how the Kremlin's boss (although soon to be man-behind the curtain after March 2 elections) Vlad Putin is warning the West over Kosovo's "independence".

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This whole Kosovo-Serbia thing is a marketing battle for now.  The West is selling "democracy" which the rest of the world views as 'gunpoint diplomacy' on the one hand, and selling "economic redevelopment" instead of natural resource exploitation, on the other.

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Positioning, positioning - back to my nap: In the end, it doesn't really matter, because both sides are owned/controlled by the ultra-rich, better known as the globalist PowersThatBe, who have learned over the centuries that conflict is a dandy tool of economic exploitation, population control, assurance of wealth, and to label as traitors those who see through the fog. 

Speaking of seeing through the fog...

AWACS Lite

"Israeli Air Force integrates home-made miniaturized, long-distance AWACS."

Yahsoft - Microhoo

Microsoft promises not to uproot Yahoo.  I'm Santa Claus.

Any Port In a Storm

The decline of the markets into the close Friday was masterfully orchestrated with a report that an Ambac Financial bailout come come next week.  So could the Easter bunny, so we'll pay less attention to rumors and more to hard facts.

Questions From a Headline

"Urinary tract infections may com from pets" proclaims a headline this morning.  Hmmmm...maybe people are a lot more familiar with their pets than I thought...

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Another thought-provoking headline:  "Saudi men arrested for 'flirting'".

The Runs: Planning Genius

"Rice says has no plan to run for vice president"  Fine.  I didn't have plans to vote for her.

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Today's McTempest:  The republicorp wannabe "McCain hopes for Castro's speedy demise".  Isn't that just the kind of tact and sensitivity you want to see running US foreign relations?  Here's my suggestion where McCainites ought to be clicking...Hint: Wishing ill for others has a way of 'blowing back' and linguistically health issues will come calling on McCain before election day.

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And, while we're in a presidential wannabe high risk window, the Secret Service denies giving the stand-down order to relax security to speed up lines at a recent Obama rally... This is making a big enough noise in the MSN that it might be the linguistic read, or something along the line of these fears is still ahead - very hard to read this stuff.

Free Speech Issue?

The headline "Canada: Afghan Debate Endangers Troops" can be read two ways.  One is that the Taliban are reading Canadian media and taking comfort - or there's an attempt going to stampede Canadians into a more US-like footing.  Your call, eh?

Truth Leaks?

"Diana inquest will go on despite accusations of farce, says coroner"  Why, of course it will - the story is still selling papers.

Mandatory DNA Tracking

The UK government has ruled out a national DNA database on "practical and ethical" grounds. The Brits are perhaps a little less easily fooled, than we in the land of corpgov.  My bad pun of the morning which would make a fine headline:  National DNA Database: Idea of a few pricks, swabs.."  'Course we'll never see it in MSM...

Stealth Crashes

Remains have been found of a crash in Venezuela that took 46 lives.  The crash of a B-2 last night on Guam cost about $1.2 billion.  You're the bank on that one.

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Coping: About Utilization

Call it turning a lemon into lemonade, if you will, but about a month ago, while wandering through Lowes I spotted a six-light halogen light system on sale for something like $13-bucks.  Never one to pass up a "good deal" I tossed it into the cart and didn't give it a seconds thought.

A couple of weeks rolled by and I got tired of bumping into the box on the workbench, so I decided to open it up and have a look.  The key thing I had gotten from the box was that it was 'spot' lights and they were '20-watts' and I was thinking "You know, these would make dandy workspace lights in the shop..."

Unfortunately, as I got to looking at what I had purchased, it became clear that I should have read the fine print - I've always been slow to remember to do that.  "12 VOLT SYSTEM" was there clear as the dickens and I didn't have the required 12-volt power supply to run the system.  Everything went back in the box and I vowed to come up with a 'creative solution' at some unspecified time down the road.

Well, yesterday was the 'end of the road' apparently:  As I was cleaning up the shop (or at least starting to) it occurred to me that I should put the battery charger in the automotive cabinet.  "Wait!  That's a 12-volt power supply!"

Sure enough - six 20-watt bulbs would be a load of 120-watts total and remember Power divided by volts equals amps (P//E=I)  (120w/12v=10amps) I knew that the light load (pardon the bad electronics pun here) would be a light load on the 15 amp charger.  This particular charger was a Wally-World $39 unit which will do a 5 amp trickle, a 15-amp medium, and a 100+ amp start - so I figured it should do just fine as a light source.

True, the makers of the ground stakes probably hadn't figured on their lights being mounted off studs, but that was easily rectified at the drill press in a minute or two.

Because we keep a well-stocked small hardware store's worth of parts around the ranch, coming up with a few utility boxes for a switch and a switched outlet was no problem: Most battery chargers don't have an on/off switch.

How to connect the 12-volt system to the battery charger was easily solved, too.  A 12" piece of 1/4-inch by 1-inch  fiberglass antenna insulator was pulled out of the parts bin.  Three holes to mount, some crimp-on ring connector and a couple of 1/4-inch stainless steel bolts 2-inches long gave the battery charging clips something to bite; the charger can be unplugged in seconds and ready for use the once or twice a year we need it for its intended purpose.

An hour and a half later, it was done.  Walking into the shop is a regular looking switch,  which provides from ;damn fine task lighting  If you squint at the upper right on the post you can see where the charger lives - the switched outlet is right above it. ('scuse the messy bench...many projects underway...that's a drill press on the left, a chop saw on the right and all kinds of things in between... and one light doesn't show because it points to the drill press...)

The point of all this?  (*I assume you are bright enough to use only a charger heavily enough rated, and I suppose you wouldn't want one of these lash-ups where the kids can grab it, but this is a ranch, for heavens sake...and yes, there is a point here somewhere). 

Utilization!  One of the main keys to getting more out of life is utilization.

Does it make sense to have a $35,000 car to drive 5,000 miles a year?  Not to me when I can get a $15,000 cat, no mileage limit, and save more than 50%.  I'd much rather spend the difference on important stuff - like building out the ranch, food and tequila.  Maybe even some travel one of these days.

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The only way I could justify a large sailboat was by living on it full time.  Unless you do that, owning a boat really is "a fiberglass-lined hole in the water into which you throw money."  If you want the true feeling of sailboat racing, you can go stand in a cold shower and tear up $100 bills for a while...

Similarly, does it make sense to own an airplane?  Only if I needed to travel on my own schedule and don't want to buy a first-class ticket.  Yeah, flying used to be fun when I was younger, but nowadays, you need to fly so many hours a month to keep your IFR ticket, and damn near everywhere is IFR worth going.  And there's the hangar, the annuals (maintenance) and all the rest of it - right down to the nearly constant updating of the NAV system.  If I really needed to go somewhere in that  much of a hurry, I could charter a jet and be money ahead, I reckon.

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This might set you off, but...tie up $40-thou in an RV?  Not unless I was going to live in it half the time, or more - and then you've got the RV'ing equivalent of a tie-down or moorage - $30 a night is not uncommon in a good RV park to 'dock' that land yacht.  And, you get marvelous gas mileage - what, 6 or 8 MPG?  At least on the boat I had a sanitation service come around and pump the holding tank for me.  I'm too old to be dumping a port-apotty.

Why, just the interest or investment potential of $40-grand - hell, just the depreciation on a $40-thousand dollar rig - pays for how many first class hotel nights where if you can spell priceline.com?

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Something to be pondered:  Look at everything in your life, find the expensive under-utilized things, and see if there's not some way to get more use out of them.;  It may seem a bit Rube Goldberg'ish, but it's really fun...besides, like Pappy used to say "You can only spend it once.."

But some things, like my battery charger, I can use twice...

OK, maybe it wouldn't be fair to fault you for owning a plane, a big sailboat, an RV or 10-rifles to hunt one deer each season.  Yup, if I did that you might fault me for owning (let me count...hmmm) 10 complete HF ham radio stations.  Hell, I'll readily confess that I only really need eight or nine of them...

Besides, three of them have big DC power supplies and those are backups for the battery charger...where's my coffee?

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Credit Cards to Avoid

Forbes has a dandy slide show on five credit cards to avoid.

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Send snip & save ideas to george@ure.net

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Friday February 22, 2008

War's Here

Well, our War in the Middle East has kicked off this morning. Far enough ahead of schedule that this is more likely foreplay than the main event. Turkey has invaded Northern Iraq.

To be sure, this is only the first round of what's ahead in modelspace.  In the meantime, as the war meme spreads regionally a couple of things to take note of:

• The US seems likely to have given a wink, wink, nod, nod, to Turkey because the PKK separatists are listed by the US, EU and NATO as a terrorist organization.

• Will the Iranians attempt to take advantage of the northern distraction?

• Will Israel wait till this all ramps up a bit more before its expected 'lashing out that doesn't go well' on the Gaza or against Syria (or both)?

• What will this do to gold prices?  (I expect over $1,000 shortly) and

• Will OPEC get involved in what's ahead?

Lots of questions to be sorted out by events in the coming weeks...

The Weak End's Almost Here

Not to sound like a whiner, but the markets are continuing to act range-bound and it's boring the hell out of me.  so much so ,that last week I ditched the usual ChartPack for Peoplenomics subscribers explaining that there wasn't enough going on to justify the work required to update the charts.  How many ways can you say "sideways" before sounding repetitious?

This weekend, the ChartPack is back, although until we exceed 12,744 for a couple of days, or drop below 11,634 on a daily close, or under 12,099 on a weekly basis, there's not much reason to do anything beyond surf the web and do projects around the ranch.   Putting in spot lights for the major machines in my shop is really high on my list today; yesterday I put together a roll around crib to hold plywood and other sheet material.  Believe me, that was way more exciting than watching the Dow drop 143 on weak economic indicators.  Duh.

The report that Oil is back under $98 will likely soften any further declines today.  Wake me up later...

Lucid In The Sky

Yes, the "Pentagon is Confident Missile Hit Satellite Tank" goes the report in the NY Times.  The same story is being  heralded elsewhere, and overseas.

But, as you might expect, UrbanSurvival readers continue to be almost as skeptical as Moscow.  "Where's the oxygen to cause the explosion in those pictures coming from?" asked on reader.  Tisk, tisk.  Hey!  Speaking of which...

Photoshop Goes Linux

Google is funding development to make Photoshop run/better on Linux.

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\Students of corporate strategy (or b-schoolers who are looking for an easy paper to write) can almost infer the graceful balance of the Lao Tzu/ness (Laozi'ness) of this move on the one hand, or the Sun Tzu'ness of it.

If you're too lazy to think deeply at this hour, consider the delicate balance - corporate jujutsu (柔術, jūjutsu) if you will -- of the Search Monster board seeing the Operating System board going after control of the Search Monster's rival Yahoo. 

Google puts a little emphasis on open systems- a message and a strategic threat to the operating systems portion of guess who's balance sheet?

As we read how Microsoft is going fishing in silicon Valley for new Yahoo Board members, might we ever so humbly suggest they check the local dojos?  This is shaping up as a corporate episode of Kung Fu.

Banker's Lifestyles

I don't suppose I need to point this out - especially if your family finances are stretched rubber band tight, or worse, you're facing foreclosure - but the ABC headline "As Economy Slips, Yacht Sales Skyrocket" just screams "denial" by the well-to-do / Ruling Class / PowersThatBe.

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A person prone to high blood pressure might also want to skip the Wall Street Journal story about how "Countrywide Treats bankster to Ski-Resort Trip" next week.  Blood not squirting out of your eyes yet?  Try this quote on for size, then:

"The first items on the agenda for guests arriving Monday evening: Cocktails and ski fittings. Next is dinner at the Spago restaurant, whose menu includes Kobe steak with wasabi potato puree for $105. (For the budget-minded, pan-roasted buffalo filet with Kabocha pumpkin flan is $54.) "

I don't know if they have their "working sessions" filled up yet, but Elaine and I wouldn't mind a little skiing.  besides, I could do a ...er......PowerPoint on socially responsible finance?  You just tell us when the corporate jet will pick us up in Tyler...

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I don't know how many times I have told the linguistics team that "imagery of stringing banksters up from light poles sounds a bit overboard..."    Now, I am beginning to see it....and speaking of which...

McPained

Pies and prolog are not my idea of a party, but Cliff and Igor at www.halfpasthuman.com are just about beside themselves with the McCain story out in the NYT this week.  So much so that they sent me an email about it...

"the linguistics about the 'major candidate' who would be 'caught cheating' about this time came out in the mccain being accused of cheating on his wife. I had thought it would be more like cheating on votes, but universe delivers what it wants. Soooo....this may be the 'stressor' which creates the 'illness week' for mccain also detailed in that same area of the last report. Part 6 or 7 I think. This can also be the pivot for the later in sept illness period of the same sort.

anyway, just saw the linguistics on the mccain cheating thing on teevee, ran the language off the cable news sites and we had better than 87% correlation, so bob's-your-uncle, and now onto the other areas linked temporally to this event.

tres cool, eh? "

Well, yeah, the time machine/predictive linguistic seem to be fitting nicely.  Which is not good news for a presidential candidate (*the scholar) or Middle East countries, but we'll get to these upcoming events in time. 

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Subscriptions are open for the next linguistics run.  First time you subscribe is $240 and then $70 per run after that.  The future ain't free - hell it ain't even cheap.

Trading The Future(s)

To be sure, while there's lot of interesting newsy stuff in the linguistic runs, the part which holds my (monkey mind) fascination continues to be the strong prices foreseen for grains.  So far, this has been a near genius-level investment decision on my part.

Yeah, nice to know when a war is going, when people are going to turn on banksters, debt-peddlers, and such, but I can't do anything about those issues.  And you can bet your last cent that my views on the one error the Framers of the Constitution made (*see Around the Ranch)  aren't going to change policy.

Instead I will focus on the grain prices and buying low, selling high (buying near and selling dear, if you prefer that);

• "Wheat prices could defy a recession"

• "Wheat price hike could bring rice-flour boom"

• "States [in India] get extension to act against wheat hoarding"

• "Maple Leaf (Foods) losses grow as wheat prices soar"

• "Price of bread rising on wheat shortage."

Coffee and the other 'softs' aren't doing an thing in modelspace, but reports of coffee hoarding seem to justify our call options there as "Robusta coffee heads for fifth weekly gain on funds, hoarding"

And word that Starbucks is testing $2.25 and $2.50 coffee is just delightful news.  Still, the 4% rise in my account overnight could just as easily go the other way.  Good thing I don't give investment advice.  Elaine asked me why I don't offer advice even to our kids.  Answer:  If I lose money, it's my responsibility.  I don't want to be responsible for losing someone else's money - that's their job.  The crack-up boom ends this fall and shortly thereafter, to borrow Jim Kunstler's book title, we'll all be in a "World made by hand".  It's a big flash in the pan, but likely just a flash.

For now, a tradeoff between collecting food, paper (*as in money), and things seems in order. Which infers a balance between gardening, commodity charts and the farm hand tools at Lehman's and elsewhere.

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Coping:  Pipes: PC and PVC

A rather wide-ranging note from a reader:

"George, Of all people I know, (well in a drunken internet reader sort of way) I am surprised that you, of all people, are using Media Player to watch DVDs. Here's a freebie that will play damn near anything. (YES, your Blockbuster DVDs too...) Just set it as the default player. http://www.videolan.org/  (Download link on right hand side of page)

I know you have a lot of email correspondence. I seriously only try emailing you useful sh*t. I hope you actually try this one out, even though you will be stuck with your stock of snotty useless cans of glue.

By the way, I had to use some PVC glue the other night when my sump pump blew apart. 3:00 AM and Universe woke me up so I could hear a fountain running in our crawl space. The water heater and furnace are also in our crawl space, and we are in a flood zone. So, if the crawl flooded, we would have no heat, and it's cold in Indiana right now. It was a little drunk out, but I fixed the damn thing. The PVC glue was EXTRA snotty, and the pipe wouldn't stay glued in the MIP adapter that was screwed into the sump pump outlet. I took a battery drill with a 1/4" nutdriver, and drove a few hex screws through the adapter and pipe to hold it together. The glue was only a couple of months old, but had the consistency of Jell-O. I hoped copious amounts of primer would help, but it didn't.

This was just groundwater, so it works okay with the screws. I wouldn't use it for sanitary drainage (poop and paper will stick on the screws, causing trouble) or with drinking water. Point of my longwinded story is that the glue goes bad quickly after you open it. I only tell you that so you consider other options. (Mind is like a parachute and all that drivel...)

Wish I was your neighbor (although you would probably just start a Rant section on your site just because of that...) Peace

Digital  TV

Oh, yeah, that's almost like a required change now that formats will be changing in less than a year.

Meanwhile, Back in Indonesia...

Our displaced Houston Bureau Chief is still get his feet on the (wobbly) ground.  But more to it than just quakes.  If you're thinking about 'running away from America' this series ought to sober you up a bit:

Probably bigger news than earthquakes, which seem to be old hat here, is the flooding in Java. Heavy rains have ground commerce to a halt on most of the island. I have not seen a word of this in the major outlets, so I know word is not getting out. It is every bit as bad as the floods in the midlands back home just a few months ago. There are small riots and some pissed off folks due to the loss of shipments. It is still difficult to pick out subtleties in the language, but considering I have only been here one week today, I can be forgiven for some loss of intel.

One other thing is the electric crisis here in Jakarta. Due to the rising prices of fuel, there has been a problem in providing enough juice to the whole city (big enough to put Mexico City to shame). As a consequence, there have been rolling blackouts across the city to save the grid. Hasn't hit us yet, but... I know this hasn't been in the MSM anywhere but here.

It is hard to get a handle on things, because where I am is not only flood-proof (long story, but was once an airport with great drainage), but is also on the upper end of the food chain, so blackouts don't affect us just yet. The pecking order here is very important. The news stories are about how close the blackouts are getting to the upper-middle class. Hate to say it, but having a couple of million rupiah in my pocket raises me quite a bit above the masses. Didn't try...just is.

Indonesia has a very strict class system. You feel it once you are on a trans-Pacific flight in economy class. The curtains are closed and no one wants to know that you are alive. It is something I experienced 30 years ago in Europe, but which has since disappeared there. In Europe, students and American teens inhabit 3rd class, while most get 2nd class, and those with a buck or two get 1st.

In Indonesia, somehow they can look at you and determine your class. Apparently, there is a genetic marker for classes. Being 6-2 and white with red hair, I am too obvious, but my nieces who are half Indo get treated differently, though for all the world I can't tell the difference.

Having servants quarters is not something that is special, it is something that is expected if you are of a certain class. The lower-class men ply their trade on the streets, but the women become servants, and that is how things are at a certain level. If you have the money and don't hire servants, you are looked down upon because you are not contributing to the local economy. There is no upward mobility. There is only securing a good position within your class. I am not an apologist for the system, I can only attempt to fit in as an expat.

It reminds me of the stories of my family's immigration into the States. My uncle Pat was the sole survivor of seven children because he was adopted by a rich English coal mining family in Montana in the 1800s. Because of that, he did not die of black lung and eventually moved to California where he carried on the family name. Maybe this Irishman in Indonesia can repay the favor to Universe.

The world is a complicated place. One doesn't dare stir the pot until one is ready to fight the results. I am not here to change to world, only myself. If the world comes along for the ride, all the better.

Send snip and save idea/notes to george@ure.net

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Around The Ranch: No, No, No

No new goats yet.

No, I haven't gotten half the stuff I planned on getting done this week done (consulting interfered)

And no, while working in the shop yesterday, I decided the Framers of the Constitution  did forget one thing.  While we have a Constitutional separation of Church and State, the Framers (not being corporate lawyers) forgot to put in a clause that would separate State and Business.

Without business giving zillions to get whatevers they want passed by government, think what a different world it would be:  No campaign influencing checks, no Defense Lobby, no Pharmaceutical lobby, and maybe we'd still have local radio and newspapers, rather than the concentration of powers in the hands of a very few today.  Yeah, it's "efficient" all right. Efficient corporate monoculture.

Maybe if it read something like this, things would be different:

Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.  Government shall remain separate from business and corporate influence.

To be sure, it might also be shoehorned in to the Fourteenth amendment (Section 3) with a few words about business/corporate influence being banned.  But, you get the idea, right?

Just something to ponder - would the central bankers ever been able to hijack the country's money if a constitutional mandate on separation of  corporate/business had been applied with the same rigor as the separation of Church and State?

I can't fault the Framers, though: Who would have ever thought the world would run out of resources and devolve into the arriving Manufacturer's Resource Wars? 

Maybe the Decider is right; maybe all we need is Executive Orders to back up the Board Rooms.  Word that the Supreme Court won't hear an ACLU warrantless wiretapping case is just one more example of how far the Constitution has been subverted and few seem to care.  I must be some kind of  genetic throw-back.  I think I'll call my commodities broker...

Thursday February 21, 2008

Hit or Miss?

The Navy is taking bows this morning amidst the claims that the "Navy Missile Hits Satellite, pentagon says..."  Why, of course they would say that.

While this may be a hit around the Pentagon - and for sure it's a hit with the defense lobby which will pile more bucks into the next generation of Son of Star Wars technology, -- we read how those pesky Chinese are a little more skeptical than the rip & read US MainStreamMedia (MSM). "China urges US to provide data on satellite shootdown" says one headline.

Please, don't ask for back up or details - just go with it, wouldja?  We have an economy to keep afloat now that the housing bubble has burst.

Not like China is alone, either: Russia is also crying foul and muttering about 'militarizing space' and such.  Damn whiners. 

Well, at least we saw the linguistics filled.  And, oh yeah, the stuff still comes down in a while, anyway....just smaller chucks.  Logically, like a shotgun, it will hit more places but with less 'stopping power' goes the theory.

We shall see...

The Runs: Dissing McCain

The McTempest in the mcteapot for today is about how the NYT has a story about a purported romance between republicorp presidential wannabe John McCain and a female lobbyist eight years ago.

This is getting oh, so very General Hospital'ish, isn't it?

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And, on the other side of the silliness, we're slightly encouraged by the headline "Bill Clinton: Texas could be Hillary's Last Stand". Let us pray...

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I don't know why she was on the particular trail, but the other day Elaine asked me "How come ,this big Wall Street investment firm/bank group (like GS) have given about equal money on both sides of the aisle?"    "Buying future access and a friendly ear of the  next President, dear," I explained.  Speaking of which...(whom?)

Into Africa

OK, it goes like this: The US is setting up a US Africa military command.  So, does that mean the resource-rich continent is next on the corpgov exploitation list?  Ooops!  I mean next on the list of lesser developed regions to benefit from Westernization?  "Bush denies Africa expansion plan" explains  Aljazeera.  Why, of course he does...you bet.

Glad I Don't Give Advise

Here's a dandy email from a reader who has been reading this site for a while:

"Some time in the last year you pointed out that a trader might base a strategy around the idea that all the fiat currencies will be debased going forward and the commodities will rise as a result

I have been following that philosophy since summer of ’07 using futures options

Net gains so far:

Dec ’07 gold 1400%

Feb ’08 gold 180%

Apr ’08 sugar 800% ***

Apr ’08 corn 625%

Holding Apr ’08 gold options in 900, 910 and 920 strikes – planning to take profits around $960 here shortly – may or may not hold a few options in case we get a blow off top towards $1050 before a healthy pullback sets in

Thanks for the trading idea and thanks for posting your trades!!!"

Dear reader:  Sorry to hear of your poor returns.  I am ashamed to admit that my current returns, too, are only running 1,009% annualized at the moment (or a gain of 901% if you want to separate the returns/gains and round off a bit).  Clearly, this kind of thing is a fluke.  But, congrats are in order.  I'll be looking for your bottle of wine in the mail.... (;-))

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Perhaps from a little too much  juice last night, I find myself staring with a jaundiced eye as a couple of corn options I have at the moment thinking maybe I should peddle them into strength for a couple of reasons.

First, after a little hiatus, the GM crops issue is popping big in Europe (lots of American traders look only as far as our own borders, but there really is a whole big world out there). Hmmm.....

Secondly, there might be something in modelspace about educators coming forth with efforts to ban corn-syrup/high fructose corn syrup drinks from schools in mid to late spring kind of range.  If you keep an eye on the number of fructose stories, you can already find headlines like "Juices and drinks with fructose linked to higher gout risk..."   surfacing around the edges of the news soup already.

With a meme like that starting to move up toward mass consciousness/primetime, selling into strength once we get past deliveries seems like a no-brainer. 

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*** THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVISE - IT'S ONLY MY PRESENT THINKING ABOUT WHAT I MIGHT DO IN MY OWN ACCOUNTS.  DON'T EVEN THINK ABOUT 'GHOSTING' MY TRADES AS I'M A CRAZED WILD-EYED COMMODITY OPTION SPECULATOR WHO'S JUST ENJOYING A SHORT RUN OF GOOD LUCK. MY PLANS CHANGE FROM MINUTE TO MINUTE AND I DO NOT HAVE THE TIME NOR INCLINATION TO KEEP YOUI POSTED ON MY TRADES ON ANYTHING NEAR A REAL-TIME BASIS.  YOU'RE WELCOME TO WATCH.  SOMETIMES I WIN, SOMETIMES I LOSE.  IF YOU THINK YOU WANT TO TRADE COMMODITIES CLICK HERE"  (Whew, that ought to keep the regulators happy...)

Next To Go?

The folks who publish the fine news magazine Spiegel report that "German State-Owned Banks on Verge of Collapse"  Hell, what isn't on the verge of collapse, anymore?  

Hey!  I get it: Marks 'x' the spot? (What was in that coffee, this morning?)

Oil Holds $100, Gold Tracks

With still a couple of more weeks to run before we get into the 'war window' (3 weeks to 3 months out in modelspace from a couple of weeks back), we see oil remains firm.  Figures others can see it coming...

Of course, since oil and gold seem to move along the same way, the price of gold has been holding up nicely, too.  Don't mind my humming "We're in the money....we're in the money..."

Quake Following

Our Houston Bureau, which has relocated to Indonesia, has some follow-up on the 7.5 quake earlier this week:

"OK, we are starting to get reports out of Aceh. There has been significant damage to many buildings and infrastructure. The main highway into Aceh has a 50' wide gap in it, with traffic backed up for miles in both directions getting through on a one-lane temporary bridge.

So far, there are no reports of tsunami, though a warning was issued about 8pm last night (never would have known it here).

Communications from the region are spotty right now, with cell phones dropping in and out during interviews with reporters. There does not seem to be wide-spread devastation at this time, but things are definitely shook up, pardon the pun.

There have been two major aftershocks this morning (between 3 and 4 am), one at 4.7 and another at 5.6. There is significant damage to roads and infrastructure. Reports are comparing this to the Big One, but saying things are not quite as bad (if I understand correctly), since there was no tsunami. Pictures show houses collapsed and roadbeds cracked and damaged.

Difficult to ascertain whether this was "devastating" or simply "very bad." I am trying to learn the words to describe various magnitudes of bad so I can understand the reports. Will advise."

Meantime, there's a 6.2 quake this morning up near Norway.

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Coping: With Computers

I mentioned yesterday that I had picked up one of those $22 TRENDnet KVM switches from Amazon - got it in fine and this morning I'm able to use two computers, three screens, and only one keyboard and mouse for the whole shebang. (A curious word, no?)

A number of folks have piped up on the multiple monitors question - how many before you've got more than enough?

"I bought the ‘ultimate trading computer’ a year or so ago

(2) 20” widescreen monitors on the desktop with (2) 19” regular monitors above them

After a few months I found that I was only using the (2) 20” monitors and rarely turned the 19’s on (albeit I haven’t been doing the day trading that I visualized when I bought the computer setup)

Windows XP has forgotten or lost one or more of the monitors on several different occasions – this is lots of fun when you have an application that opens by default on the monitor that Windows has lost track of (sometimes can recover via Desktop Properties but last time ended up restoring to the most recent checkpoint)

Anyway, in hindsight I wouldn’t have spent the $$$ to get a computer with the Nvidia dual-port video cards – would prefer to have one HUGE monitor (particularly when I am trying to remind Windows that there is another monitor ‘out there’ somewhere that it knew about yesterday)

Recently replaced one of the 19” monitors with a 15” TV/DVD - I enjoy watching videos while I monitor the markets and I got tired of fighting with Media Player over copyright protection on videos that I brought home from Blockbuster (glad that Microsoft is protecting us from those evil DVD pirates!)"

Car Zapping

I've told you how many times that I am loathe to buy a car with all kinds of satellite hookups and computer-controlled elements because government could disable my car if they chose to?  Here's a report out of New York about what seems to be a Bermuda Triangle of sorts for cars in Midtown...

Remember, our motto of the week: Paranoid - Just in time! LOL

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Send snip & save /coping with life notes (*or a suitable motto for next week) to george@ure.net

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Around the Ranch: Happy Modelspace

I don't know as I've ever told you about my favorite vendor for antenna wire and such - the Original Wireman.  If you ever need to do anything with radio gear wiring, their book "The WireBook IV" is about as good as it gets.

Since it's pouring down rain at the moment, and since there's lightning about, no better time than today to do a little antenna modeling.  I just got a shipment of insulators and a 570' hunk of wire that will be part of a new 160 meter loop antenna. 

What I'll be modeling today will determine if I put up a single element 570' loop, or put a smaller loop within it, figuring that the higher radiation resistance of the single big loop on  some bands can be used to advantage, just like feeding a multi-band quad with as single coax line works. 

I'll let you know what I find...

Meantime, no new goats yet, tons of really much more important work to do, but what's more important than having fun?  Life can stop any old time, and I figure I'd be better to leave a little work behind and take more memories of fun on the way out...

The rain is great because once it soaks in a bit, I can put fence posts in with the tractor bucket...way faster and easier than throwing a fence pounder about...

Of course, it also means more tornados tonight-tomorrow up northeast of us...

Wednesday February 20, 2008

Distracted Wednesday

Here it is and I wake up with the refreshing thought that I'm still older than most speed limits.  Thankfully, I haven't hit interstate speeds yet...but I sure hope to.

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The two big stories of the day (the Dow crashing comes after while) is the lesson in astrophysics laid out so perfectly by Universe and the Defense Department.

As the first part of the lesson, Universe supplies is the lunar eclipse which will be visible from most of the country.  Here, we get clouds, instead. 

The second part of the lesson is that when earth, moon, and sun line up just so, you get extraordinary stresses on the earth's crust and that means earthquakes.  Like the 7.5 that  killed a few folks and caused a tsunami warning from the epicenter in Indonesia,   I'll post an update from our Indonesia Bureau Chief as soon as he can get communications back up.

Also, not to be missed in the lesson is the swarming going on along the California - Mexico border for the past week or so.  Being rocket surgeons, and all, it would make sense for people north of the swarming area to be ready for something larger.  Movement at one end of a fault zone is usually balanced off (over some period of time) by similar movement at the other end.

The part of the day's festivities and distractions being supplied by DoD is the shoot down attempt of the errant/dangerous satellite which is scheduled to occur right about the start of the eclipse (which will make the debris field more easily tracked (funny how this timing stuff works out).  OK, so it's really a missile test, what do you want?

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The earth moves, there are celestial fireworks?  Thanks Universe! .  Damn, I'm honored.   And, it's not over yet?

CPI-Moody Blues

The latest Zogby/Reuters poll says the mood of the country is slightly better this month.    Oh, maybe the price of gasoline being fairly stable (for now) helped.  But, in case you've been snoozing, the 3-month annualized CPI is now running 6.8!

"CONSUMER PRICE INDEX: JANUARY 2008

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.5 percent in January before seasonal adjustment, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. The January level of 211.080 (1982-84=100) was 4.3 percent higher than in January 2007.

The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) increased 0.5 percent in January prior to seasonal adjustment. The January level of 206.744 (1982-84=100) was 4.6 percent higher than in January 2007.

The Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U) increased 0.5 percent in January on a not seasonally adjusted basis. The January level of 121.895 (December 1999=100) was 3.9 percent higher than in January 2007. Please note that the indexes for the post-2006 period are subject to revision. Previously published and revised data for 2006 and 2007 are shown on page 5.

CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U)

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U increased 0.4 percent in January. The indexes for food and for energy each advanced 0.7 percent, following increases in December of 0.1 and 1.7 percent, respectively. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent, following increases of 0.2 percent in each of the preceding nine months. The January advance reflects larger increases than in December in the indexes for apparel, for medical care, for recreation, for education and communication, and for other goods and services."

Like I've been telling you all along, we should soon see more dysfunctional economic decision-making because the core rate is running a mere 3.1% while the 3-month unadjusted "all items" rate is 6.8%.  And policy-makers in the District of Corruption wonder why so many Americans are stick of the corpgov nonsense?  Expect a return shortly of what I'd label the facing foreclosure moody (economic) blues.

Collapsing Cities

Yeah, accuse me of pessimism, but check out the "First Wave of World's Collapsing Cities" for some really bummer inspiring stats.  Read the dynamics of it...

What Goes Up

Yep, that short-term oil pop was a dandy, huh?  But, now's a good time to be out for a few days...oil back down again this morning.

Hiding the Truth

We're appalled at the court decision that puts www.wikileaks.org out of business.  But, of course, they're not...

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And yes, if you link court decisions like this and the corporate takeover of the internet (by trying to buy an end to 'net neutrality) you can make out the shadowy outlines of the powers that be...

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Coping:  Staying Sweet

A female reader in Arizona has a few good ideas about how to keep sugar around...

"Good morning George,

First time I've written, long time reader of your Daily business news updates. I work nights and I live in AZ. I use to go to bed around 3-4 a.m., I find myself staying awake until 7am, so I can get a glimpse of the most bleak news around the world just before going to bed. (the thought has occurred to me to read after I wake up) I love your sense of humor and and I can't wait for the baby goats, also I liked how you asked if we'd started our garden yet. (not once, but twice) I say that because I keep telling myself... get it going!!! Thank you.

Now, for the point of my email, you probably already know this, but maybe some of your readers do not. I think it's a great tip, don't know if you'll think it's worthy of a mention in your snip and save section. But here goes...

Re; Brown sugar - buy a 25 lb. bag of brown sugar, I get mine from Sam's Club. I hear people complaining that the brown sugar gets hard after it sit for awhile, I have the perfect solution, I've been doing it for years. I haven't had even one grain of hardness. Get about 15 1-Qt. Mason jars and pack them really tight, almost to the top of the jar, cap them and store them. Keep the sugar in the jar all the way to the end and you'll never have hard brown sugar again. (just remember to put the cap back on)

A tip on preparation: Put a few news papers on the floor, set the 25 lb. bag on the paper and cut open, use a Mason jar funnel and a a large scooper, also have a large spoon for packing down the brown sugar as you go, as to remove air bubbles. As you get down in the bag, keep those scissors handy, if you keep trimming the bag as you go, it's easier to get to the brown sugar. I also recommend a small stool for sitting on, as it does take a bit of time. But worth it.

Keep up the great work both on and off the net, thanks George.

Of course my favorite way of keeping brown sugar is to mix it with a little alcohol.  A commercial version of this mixture is available --  Meyers Dark Rum. 

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Mixed with a bit of apple juice, rum has a quite nice finish - credit to E for cobbling that up.  And here's an oddity for you: A quick scan of the net finds that while others have tried it, this particular potion doesn't have a name except rum and apple juice.  Maybe something like an UrbanSurvivor would fit.

Slitherin'

Not to be confused with the name of the team playing that fly-around-on-broomsticks game in one of the first Harry Potter movies, we instead need to have a little discussion about snakes of the slithering family.

A fellow Texas family up the road a ways (which in Texas can be hundreds of miles) says it's time for us to think about putting sulfur crystals out.  Not the regular sulfur because that gets washed away by rain too easily, but the crystals.  Available at any feed store..

(I would have posted the email, but it's buried somewhere in the 12,318 items in my inbox)

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There's also a product at Lowes called Snake-A-Way.  Claims to work for 2-3 months.  Although it smells like a cross between bad armpit and moth crystals, seems like it's worth a try. More expensive than sulfur, but around the ranch, even our water moccasins and copperheads deserve the best.  The odd coral snake?  Well, no; that's what we have Remington Sportsman bird shot for...

Coal for Sale?

OK, I'm ticked.  I spend a half hour yesterday trying to figure out where to buy coal.  No luck!  Oh sure, I can find coal all day long for $60/ton in Appalachia, but I'm not about to move my shop up there.  Anyone know where in East Texas I can buy coal by the ton delievered?

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Send ,snip & save ideas to george@ure.net

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Around the Ranch: Projects

Not to complain, but most of yesterday ended up in front of the computer.  Setting up a couple of subscribers, trying to figure out how to set up a subscription management program so that the entire sign-up process for Peoplenomics could be automated, and computer parts started arriving - oh joy!

Unfortunately, before you order a KVM switch (*to switch keyboards and mice, in my case) make sure you read the fine print.  I ordered one from Amazon made by TRENDnet that was labeled USB.  Cool, I was thinking, I'll just plug the USB cables from the keyboard and mouse USB ports of the two laptops scattered about my desk, and be able to flip back and forth.  No more picking up another keyboard or reaching for another mouse...
 

But, no, nothing can be that simple, can it?  The problem is that this particular TRENDnet box requires a serial port on each of the computers. 

On the now 2-year old Toshiba, that's an issue because the plan is to have the serial port control a software-controlled receiver (Icom PCR-100) for shortwave listening.  There's also a USB satellite TV receiver being set up so I can pick up FTA TV news from foreign sources. Because the old laptop has wireless built in, I can monitor wireless web cams to keep an eye on things.  I may point one at the goats today...You got the idea, though -- I've designated that one as my 'input' computer.

The other KVM problem  is the newish Gateway laptop which doesn't sport one of those 'antique' serial port connectors.  Even if it did, with Vista Home Premium in use, Lord knows how many weeks it would take to find the port controls if I needed to tweak anything, anyway.

My advice if you're doing serious reading or writing is to spend the money and buy enough screen space (virtual real estate) so that computing becomes what it is supposed to be: mind/thinking amplifiers.  To me, that's visual elbow room.  Want more or better thinking?  Increase your I/O speeds.  Bigger screens and more of them is a step in that direction....

In my case, that's three screens (for now) and a copy of the Vortex Reader that Cliff (www.halfpasthuman.com) cooked up (and sold the the alphabet agencies about 10-years back).  That gives me a huge desktop and the ability, if needed to wolf down text around 1,000 words per minute although reading speeds over 1,500 words per minute are not uncommon for Vortex 'power users'.

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As I sit here this morning, I can see on laptop #2 that the Footsie (the UK's equivalent of the Dow) is tanking - down more than 1 3/4%).  On laptop #1, the extended desktop screen is watching for my commodity account statement to pop in, and the main screen is occupied with FrontPage.,  Explorer pops over part of the inbox, but I can still see the top of that pile.

On most laptops, all you need to do is buy another monitor, plug it into the external video port, and go to the display controls and set up the second monitor as additional workspace (check the "extended desktop" box.) 

You can then drag an item from your main screen onto the extended screen - and it gives you twice the 'desktop' space as you had before. 

Believe me, once you get used to two (or more) monitors, you will wonder how you ever got along without it.  No more of that time-wasting ALT + Tab stuff switching windows.

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I'm not sure how many monitors can ultimately be tied in to a single computer.  I've decided that because I'm not doing much traveling that I might invest in an "ultimate" computer late this year.  Something with six or eight matched screens, although the limiting factor might be the number of dual video cards that could be plugged into expansion slots.

An alternative might be to keep the laptops and just be satisfied with three screens each - one off each of the video ports and then a plug in USB video card.

Decisions, decisions, decisions...

Tuesday February 19, 2008

Linguistics: Like we said: "Military Bhopal"

Although we have been watching it in model space for a couple of months, a large number of readers were concerned last week that our going public with the linguistic context "military Bhopal" was excessive, given that at the time the widely sold meme was that the "danger" was largely from a hydrazine fuel cell onboard the spacecraft.  Today, as we read that the space shuttle is heading home in advance of the shoot-down attempt, and word propagates across the 'net that there may be more plutonium onboard that officially admitted.... 

The thing to keep in mind about radical predictive linguistics is that the "art" (It's too young to be a 'science' yet.) has the serious drawback of not telling whether the future-predicted event is objectively 'real' or whether the linguistic analog of a huge synthetic aperture antenna has merely picked up a strong signal of "buzz".  Perception is reality, kind of thing.

No doubt some of the buzz on the net revolves around three important points about nuclear-generated power plants in space:

• Plutonium gathered some notoriety as it  was used on the Cassini space craft when it was sent off to explore around Saturn.  Reason: Lots of power for long-distance communications.  Concern in some quarters went to the idea that Cassini really marked the beginning of Planet Earth's bad manners is sending polluting/garbage to other planets as well as our own.

• Plutonium-powered RTG's (radioisotope thermoelectric generators) were also involved in the New Horizons spacecraft which is on a 9 1/2 year to check out the region of space around Pluto.   The US Department of energy offers a quick backgrounder on the RTG's at their web site.

Now comes the interesting "judgment" question:  "What kind of equipment was onboard?"

On some sites, there's discussion that "This isn't a big KH-11, it is a new type of radar imaging satellite."  Because the hydrazine onboard is claimed to be in its frozen state, there's a possibility that it could come down in aerosolized form - and sure enough, that'd qualify as a 'military Bhopal'.

On the other hand, by looking over some older reports we might be able to infer that 30 kW peak power is required for ground-penetrating radar to be effective when used at ground level.

Although technology has improved a lot since the early days of ground-penetrating radar (GPR) any improvement in antennas and radar receiver noise floors is no doubt offset by the positioning of such equipment in space where antenna size, and path losses (into the atmosphere and back) can all contribute to power requirements.

From the civilian viewpoint (it might help to have a ham radio license about here) the design parameters for an orbiting ground-penetrating radar would be a complex stew defined by how deep you wanted the ground penetrating radar to penetrate, what kind of operation was anticipated (occasional snapshots or more or less continuous operation.

Obviously, if you were designing an optimized system you'd want to get as deep a look into the ground as possible.  Especially if, for example, you were trying to get a good bead on the tunnels used by 'unfriendly' forces.  You do remember Tora Bora, right?  No doubt, since USA 193 was launched from Vandenberg about five years later, the December 2001 battle was on strategic planning minds.

Now, to get out the slide rule for a moment, and remembering that you need 30 kW minimum to fire off your GPR, which design would you prefer?  Your choices are:

• The design where youi send up a thousand powers of frozen hydrazine, and use a smallish PU-238 heater (less than three grams worth, for example) to thaw out hydrazine for the fuel cell on demand, or...

• The design where you have almost unlimited power for long periods of time from a PU-powered RTG?

Approvals and budgets aside, it seems intuitively to me that this is a no-brainer.  What the hydrazine fuel cell approach offers in terms of relative safety and ease of getting it 'through channels' seems more than offset by its relatively short-duration operational capability compared with a more robust power supply.

This is one of those design problems where there's nothing particularly "green" available.  While its true enough that a large capacitor bank and huge solar panel array could generate the momentary 30kW peaks (*about the equivalent of a 40 horsepower electric moment for the instant of the transmitting pulse) lobbing things up into space likely would come down to a design life/power density-weight calculation, and that's what you'd go with.  Especially when the calcs are done behind well-guarded doors.

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So, as the US Navy continues to prepare for a shoot-down later this week, no doubt the speculation will continue to run rampant on the 'net as to what's really up there.

The pleasing thing about all this is that whether it's hydrazine or something else, the concern about "pollution  and military" and the widespread discussion popping up in MSM fulfills the linguistics prediction.  It does take a bit of the edge off the news seeing it far enough in advance.

Capital Grains

While the linguistics team at HalfPastHuman is off collecting data for the next run (*Subscriptions are now open for ALTA 1308, maximal focus on events of December 2008/13th lunar cycle for the year, and a run which should yield some additional descriptors about the big natural disaster(s) coming late fall early winter), I'm just sitting here watching grain prices.

Not to put too fine a point on it, but with the Fed giving away money as fast as they can print it to bail out their fellow central banksters, and a looming global famine, investing in grains has been almost like shooting fish in a barrel.

The spyders off doing their collection chores are spotting discussions around headlines like "Pasta la vista as world wheat shortages bite"  The spyders haven't proffered what to make of the article appearing in Scottish media, although maybe more haggis is not an option?

Castro La Vista

All eyes on Cuba next weekend as their parliament meets.  Fidel is handing over the reins of power to someone new after 50-years of rule. 

The odds-on favorite is his younger brother Raul (76).  Maybe the Clintons and Bushes aren't the only ones with family dynasties in mind?  Must be something in the water leaders drink - or power is just way more addictive than I give it credit for...

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I still have that $600 pre-revolution cigar to smoke some day...

Musharraf Out

The now-ruling party in Pakistan is about to become "the former ruling party".  And, there goes all the money we've dumped into Musharraf...

Kosovo Grab

While The Decider has decided to back "Independence" for Kosovo, I've gotten more than one nastygram to the effect that suspecting the US backing has more to do with resource exploitation than politics (ala Iraq, where it's oil that's at stake) is unfair of me.  Yet here we have something from  the New Kosovo report which talks about vast newly discovered oil and gas reserves in the region, on top of rich mineral deposits.  (very slow loading page, but worth reading)

As one of the comments on the site aptly notes:

"The determination by the US and NATO, at all costs, to occupy Kosovo and virtually all of Yugoslavia, is spurred on by the enticement of abundant natural resources. Kosovo alone has the richest mineral resources in all of Europe west of Russia. The New York Times observed that "the sprawling state-owned Trepca mining complex, the most valuable piece of real estate in the Balkans, is worth at least $5 billion." producing gold, silver, pure lead, zinc, cadmium, as well as tens of millions of dollars in profits annually. "Kosovo also possesses 17 billion tons of coal reserves and Kosovo (like Serbia and Albania) also has oil reserves."

Quick!  Get the guns out!  These people need democracy!  Quick!

Markets

Last time I checked, the markets were set for a slightly higher open.  Don't let the report in the Financial Times today that "US banks borrow $50 billion via new Fed facility" put you off none. 

Save your fears for tomorrow,  we're due to see the CPI figures.

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Speaking of, it's another chance for a gazillionaire reader to send me a classic 10-year old, low mileage,  911 or 930 - coupe, not the targa top, please, they're not as stiff in high speed cornering.  Here's one on eBay which would be just fine.  If you're a really busy gazillionaire, here's a link to a suitable one with a Buy-It-Now option. -- That works out to only 1,375 Peoplenomics subscriptions you could send to your friends/employees.......Thanks!

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Damn monkey-mind and sparklies.  Where was I.....hmmmm...oh yeah...

I always love reading CPI figures.  The Fed bases their policy on exactly the opposite of what matters to humans.  To you and me, life is mostly about food and energy costs.  To the bankster elites, policy is based largely on the core rate which excludes those inconvenient numbers.

Farmers, being a much more practical lot, pass on price increases based on input costs which are mostly energy-related.  Ergo, we hear screams of pain from Wall Street whenever one of their own kind gets in trouble and the redundant chant "So and so is too big to fail!"  But, last time I looked, no one was offering to print up money should I, or you, or any other small investor fail. 

Why should the fat cats be any different?  Yeah, yeah, I know - That would cause a Depression! 

Fine, so what?  Periodic economic Depressions are, in and of themselves, nothing more than outward symptoms of a deeper problem.  Debt and malinvestment.

Think of it like this:  A Depression is like the barfing that goes with a bad case of the flu. The barfing, in the case of the flu, is caused by the underlying disease (flu). 

Depressions are caused by underlying (and with emphasis on the lying part) massive malinvestment and excessive debt. 

You can maybe put off some of the flu symptoms for a while - just like you can put off some of the symptoms of an economic depression for a while.  Nut in the end in the medical case, the immune system, sooner or later cracks and you get sick. 

The same thing goes for the economy.  When you can look back at thousands of years of human history and read about how there were Jubilee Years (every five decades), the ultimate absurdity of Ben Bernanke and the Central Banksters trying to rewrite Leviticus 25:10, should be really apparent.  It's even Old Testament, fer crying out loud!

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See how simple this all is?  Get the flu once in a while and enjoy it:  It's what recharges your body's collection of antibodies.  No flu?  No fresh antibodies for the next outbreak.

Depressions, in the same way, rebuild a resistance to living on debt.  Resistance to using paper to invest in more paper and proclaim some real value has been created therefrom seems like a decent financial antibody to build.  Today's economic climate: This is nuts!

But, I suppose that will all come into focus by late fall.  Just don't pretend you're surprised by what comes, please.  It's not like it isn't obvious.

As long as the illusion persists paper's a fine thing.  But ask yourself when confidence in paper goes, who will trade paper for a bottle or rum and some steaks?  In that kind of world, you'll want to have something of value other than paper.  Doesn't matter if it's a skill (plumbing or farming, for example) or whether it's precious metals. 

Prudence in this day and age seems to require (as I pointed out in Peoplenomics this week) two business plans.  One for the good times and one for the bad.  A dual-mode approach.

Speaking of which, got your garden in yet?

Email of the Day

As we await the outbreak of war in the Middle East, here's a thoughtful point which I don't think the author will mind my sharing:

George--

Another sign things may be about to pop in the Middle East is the assassination of terror-master Imad Mughniyeh, which has been a bit underplayed over here. Mughniyeh's death is particularly significant for one reason: he was the point man for any retaliatory terror action should Iran be attacked.

Whoever nailed Mughniyeh had to be top shelf; he had both his facial features and fingerprints altered, and took security precautions that made Saddam's look careless. Assuming his death wasn't faked, this is world-changing news.

Is this a preemptive strike or just a coincidence? Place it in the front of your Wars and Rumors of Wars file.

Regards, John Soltez,

Author Only in America

The review of Soltez's book, by the way, has a great line it "The French Revolutions meets Peoria".   Seven years ahead of the meme- excellent!

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Coping: Second Opinion

Here's a really short, to the point concept:  Don't trust government figures on the economy?  Not sure about what's ahead?  Read some of the outlooks from major companies that you do business with.

Think we're not into recession mode?  Did you miss the GM layoff/buy outs of 74,000 workers?

How about Wal-Mart being very cautious about their outlook this year?

Let me ask you one more time: Got your garden in yet?

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Send snip & save ideas to george@ure.net.

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Around the Ranch:  Mowed Down

As soon as I get this morning's report up and a new subscriber to Peoplenomics set up, I will run back to the west field which I spent several hours mowing yesterday and pick up where I left off.

Actually, the plan was that I'd spend all day Monday mowing, but I blew out one of the hydraulic lines on the loader bucket.  That meant a trip to town to have a new one (plus a spare) made up.

Before the leaves pop out, here's the view from the UrbanSurvival office... the before and after should be interesting.  Most of the open sky will disappear shortly when the oaks open up.

The line at the bottom, by the way, is where the sun-reducing film ran out, LOL.  I have putting up another layer of glazing on the shopping list - and then the film might go...

Monday, February 18, 2008

Linguistics: Those Unseasonable Winds

I've mentioned many times that this spring seemed like it might hold a record-smashing tornado season because of the linguistic runs.  Terms like "land scoured" or "winds gouge deep" are not particularly comforting things to see in modelspace.

Although tornadoes this weekend in the Southeast didn't kill as many as the earlier event a couple of weeks back, nevertheless the latest Tornado Trend Chart from the Weather Service seems to indicate something is out of whack...

Today, the cleanup work (and house to house searches) in Prattville Alabama continues from weekend tornadoes...

Sick Beef?

A massive recall - the largest in history - is underway by California packing house Hallmark/Westland.   (Skip this if you're not done with breakfast:)  At issue is using abuse on animals to make them stand up in order to be slaughtered.  The USDA is supposed to be called in to make judgments on so-called "downer" cattle - those that aren't healthy enough to get into the human food chain...

Stealth Weapons Test

Russia says the whipped-up need to shoot down an errant US spy satellite is looking more and more like a way around the space weapons treaty.  Oh, the3 whining.  Come on, everyone knows the programs need a demonstration now and then to justify billions in additional spending to a slightly (*although not very) skeptical CONgress.

Nationalized Bank

If you thought that Britain's troubled Northern Rock bank would quickly be privatized following the end of its 'bank runs' (for now?), think again.  Not till conditions change says gold-seller now PM Gordon Brown.

Easy Come, Not So Easy Go

The headline that Citigroup Stops Withdrawals from Head Fund in the WSJ reminds us that we're still only in the beginning stages of economic meltdown.  Just think how much fun this fall will be...

Tensions Building Department

Russia is not at all happy with Kosovo declaring its independence. The EU is split on the matter.  The major Western powers are backing the independence drive because of mineral deposits, would be a good guess.  Some new schemes to raise money could be hatched by corpgov around this, for sure.

Frequent Fliers

Mr. and Mrs. Decider are in Tanzania where, as the Washington Post headlines it, people are "Welcoming Bush...But Waiting for Obama..."

Bad "Science"

Only a few seem worried about California's headlong rush to put questionable science into new climate curricula.  I wonder if they will even mention the change in output from the sun?  Land of woo-woo and groupthink...

Selling Singularity

"Singularity" author Ray Kurzweil says machines will achieve human-level artificial intelligence by 2029. 

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Hell, I don't know if we have to wait that long. I've met quite a few people who were eclipsed by machines when the VIC-20 came out in 1980...

Show Time

Elections must be getting close:  The administration is making a big deal about wanting domestic surveillance legalized and companies that did it contrary to law are seeking retroactive immunity. Not that they bothered with FISA court oversight required anyway.  Do these folks think Americans go to bed and wake up with their memories wiped clean every day?

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Coping: Out the Exits

I suppose I shouldn't even give you ideas like this one, because when it sinks in, you're liable to do something really outlandish - and I don't want any responsibility for that.  Nevertheless, I know a lot of people who have made a conscious decision to "check out" from America for a while, including myself during a two-year stint in the Cayman Islands back when.

This week, my eldest daughter Denise is taking a pack of resumes and headed back to the Islands seeking a job, despite my reminders that a 'global coastal event' in 2009 could wash out plans to live happily ever after among the coconut trees and tropical breezes.  However while on the one hand I'm proud of her, on the other I'm concerned.

I have other friends who have checked out (at least temporarily), too.  One, who made a few gazillions in the computer biz even developed an eco/adventure operation in southern Chile which is thriving.

My brother in law, Panama Bates, last we heard was house building developments in the mountains of Panama having (as I understand it) wrapped up building a 10-plex condo on the beach about a hundred miles from Panama City.

I mention all of this because the fellow who had previously been our Houston Bureau Chief (Bernard) has also now been "bitten" by the live offshore bug. 

I mention all this because throwing all your worldly goods that matter into a suitcase (or backpack) and going off to some far-flung different country is a good thing (at least if you're not also packing an M-16).  Different cultures tend to widen the mind, put new concepts and values into what may have previously been just marketing fragments embedded by too many hours in from the hypnosis/groupthink monster in the living room.

Bernard was kind enough to offer to send us report on his adventures so that if you're stuck being a coop dweller in the corpgov gerbil cage, you can at least get a sense of what "going for it" is like from the standpoint of one 'doing it." Here's his latest dispatch from Indonesia...

"Subject:  OMGOMGOMG...

Went to Puncuk yesterday. What a f***ing experience that was! The scenery was like something out of a movie. Mountains covered in dense jungle growth. Plants the likes of which you or I have never seen. Wisps of clouds floating through the trees. Farms and markets and the road is lined with little shanties selling everything imaginable. There are mechanics every 50 yards, and vegetable stands and antiques and art work like carved wood and gas shops where they sell gas in plastic jugs and you buy one and dump it in the tank, and mini cafes. But don't think of these like anything you have ever seen, They are ramshackle huts that look a 100 years old and may fall down at any moment.

The vegetable stands are crammed full of things I can't identify. Roots and leaves and fruit I have never seen. Banana trees full of bananas. Papaya trees thick with papayas. Some kind of tree with what looks like watermelons the size of golf balls hanging from them. Something that looks like kale but with a thick brown root ball. Rushing mountain streams and waterfalls everywhere draining into lush valleys full of rice paddies built in terraces up and down the sides of the mountains. Poinsettia trees 10 feet tall! Plants you can find at the nursery, but huge and growing wild all over the place! It's like a dream!

The drive up the mountain takes an hour on a little two lane road with trucks and buses and hundreds of cars and motorcycles all jumbled up and trying to pass each other. Each village has these tiny little minivans that run like city buses up and down the side of that road. Each one paints its vans a different color: lime green, light blue, pink, etc., and they just drive back and forth along the road in that village. The drive scared the sh*t out of me. Everyone is passing on both sides, even on blind turns. Last night coming back, we were going around a tight turn and came face to face with a bus and 6 cars trying to pass a truck. I was sure we were all going to die right there, but we just missed the bus by inches and the rest of the cars all dived back into their lane.

Puncuk is amazing. It is a city of 500,000 nestled in the bowl of a mountain, though I couldn't even tell it was that big until night when I could see the lights. During the day, it just looks like jungle. Our first stop was at a roadside cafe, which was a cooking cart, a long wooden table and some benches all crammed into a normal sidewalk space. It had a tarp over the top and big canvas signs along the road for shade. This is Yocke's favorite place to get bubur ayam, which is a dish unique to this area. It is an egg yolk, with steaming hot chicken broth poured over it to partially cook it. Then they add rice, chopped chicken, roasted soy beans, indo parsley, and seasonings. It is served with fried bread that kind of looks and feels like doughnuts, but is not as sweet. I added sweet soy sauce to mine and mixed it all up. The result is a porridge type thing that fills you up quick! For dessert, we bought these little fried balls of tapioca that were incredible. Total cost for three people for all this $5.50.

I have been feeling lousy of late. The cold I left Houston with settled into my chest and I have had a sore throat, bad cough and sinus infection for the past two days. I finally decided to go to the apotik (drug store-ish) to see what I could get to make me feel a little better. To my surprise, I could buy amoxicillin (500 mg) and ibuprophen (400 mg) without a prescription! Bought 10 of each. Total cost? $3.50!

Yocke says that if I need to go to a doctor, the regular GP is $15 and a specialist is $20! This is not subsidized or socialized medicine, either. That is how much they charge at full price without insurance! And she says that the doctors are very good, with many being trained in the States and Europe. Oh, and just to be sure, there was a young woman on the side of the road who Steve told me was one of the local medicine girls dispensing home brew from a basket on her back with several bottles and a basket of different powders. I called her over, pointed to my chest and coughed and motioned to my sinuses. She prepared some kind of yellow powder with a couple of different liquids in a glass, which I drank. It was heavy with menthol and eucalyptus and the color was mustard powder. To wash it down (though it didn't taste bad at all), she poured a little brown sugar water to rinse out the glass and get all the goodies. I drank that down too. Total cost? $0.40. Anyway, this morning (it's 4:30 Monday right now) my sore throat is gone and the congestion is breaking up and one of my ears has finally popped. I think it was the medicine girl. =>

At this point, we went to the house. OMG! It is in an exclusive little neighborhood with private security that adjoins the Indo version of Camp David! The houses are built all up and down a hillside. Yocke's is at the back of the compound, last house on a dead end. Wow! Beautifully landscaped yard with all sorts of exotic plants and what looks like coastal Bermuda grass. Steve says that two local girls cut the grass with scissors about once a month. The house is three bedroom and one bath with servant's quarters out back. It has a back patio that is about 15 feet deep with a sheer 10 foot wall into the hillside and the back. Yocke has a bunch of orchids growing out there. The house is stuffed with antique furniture. Wait till you see the video. I am going to digitize it, edit it and post it on MySpace sometime this week. W spent a good part of the day there doing laundry while Yocke made a deal with one of the locals to rewire the house. Total cost? $200.

Later, we drove further up the mountain to look at the resort that Yocke is buying. Holy sh*t! Huge houses that rich folk buy to use as weekend getaways. All two story on big lots with brick paved roads. The first house will be my new office. They just finished painting it and there are still more repairs to be done. It hasn't been lived in for several years. I get the whole upstairs for living and office space. It has a balcony that overlooks the main room downstairs where the real estate office will be. The servant quarters are off the kitchen in the back. Wild *ss stuff! At the back of the compound it drops 700 feet into a valley where farms line the stream and terraces grow rice and all sorts of stuff. The 'hood has its own 3,000 foot artesian water well and rich red volcanic farming area that looks so fertile you'd have to work at NOT growing something! It's a dream right? The hospital is at the front of the neighborhood and needs a lot of work, but my first assignment is to start looking for grants to get it up and running. More video to come!

I haven't even touched half the stuff we have done in the past couple of days! But, my fingers are cramping on this laptop and I have to get busy working on the hospital deal (there is currently only one hospital serving the entire mountain!!!). It seems like I could write and entire book about each hour I am here! What a trip this is! Morning prayers have started up the way and the city is waking up. Fourteen million people are about to hit the road all at once! A new day and a new week, my first full week in my new home.

One interesting eureka moment yesterday showing my northern hemisphere bias...

All the satellite dishes I kept seeing were pointing straight up. I filed this away because I wanted to figure out why no one was using their big 8-foot dishes. Then it hit me...they are pointing straight up because I am on the equator. The geo-synch orbit is straight up!

Oh sure, you are sitting there thinking, "Well yeah, dummy." But it shows how bias and experience can blind one to the obvious. I am so used to seeing them point 24 degrees to the south, or worrying about having southern exposure to set up a dish that it didn't occur to me.

Slowly stripping away the assumptions so that I can think clearly.

More to come..."

To be sure, it's a little higher level view than the kind written by other traveling writers in earlier times - a far cry from Louis L' Amour's reading of little pocketbooks to sailors in the forecastles of tramp steamers as he went exploring the world three-quarters of a century ago.

Times, and the nature of going truck-about have changed.  Instead of readings from dog-eared and passed around copies of Everyman's Library, that L' Amour told me about when I interviewed him years ago, today's modern explorer takes a laptop, cell phone, an a list of contacts saved from Outlook.

Still, bits of the local color do come through, which is why I share Bernard's adventures with you this morning.  References to 'servant's quarters' for example, are indicative to me that equality of opportunity is still thinly spread, although local folks in many places don't think much of it - it's just the way things have always been.

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With any luck, you won't be bitten by the urge to go out and make full contact with the world.  Having done it - and knowing many who have - any of your efforts to change the world will doubtless be met with the world changing you by equal measure.

it's just sort of how things have worked historically.  For how much longer I'm not sure.  As a colleague mentioned folks these days expect the status quo to continue only what they don't fathom is that the 'quo' is likely gone...

Blu-ray Wins

If you're out shopping today and think you have found a deal on a HD DVD player, might want to make sure it plays Sony's Blu-ray format.  Toshiba is giving up on their challenging format.

Send snip & save contributions to george@iure.net

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Around The Ranch: No Holiday Here

Still no goats.  The small divot on my right thumb, inflicted by a speeding fence post last week, has mostly heeled.  There's an old fire-house saying that "No project that's really big can ever be done without at least a little bloodshed."  The fencing must, therefore, qualify as a big project.

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The goats, unimpressed by my self-sacrifice, have been reluctant to graze the new big field despite the abundant browse.  Perhaps they - like humans have some 'familiarity gene' that keeps them doing the same thing, time after time.

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A huge laundry list of projects awaits as I take at least part of the week off to catch up on spring chores around here. 

At least the old saying "Idle hands are the devil's tools..." won't be applied to me this week.  My tools are Skil, Kubota, deWalt, Husqvarna, Craftsman, Stanley, Kobalt and Campbell Hausfeld, to mention just a few.  OK, and Jet, Central Machinery, and Lincoln, too, while we're at it.  And Dremel, and Weller, and Black & Decker, and Ryobi and....

I confess to being every bit as dangerous as a woman in the shoe section of  nearest Nordstrom Rack whenever a new Harbor Freight catalog shows up or Lowes announces a sale.  Equality is a fine thing, it just seems to work out a bit differently depending on genes and gender....