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400 Point Question: "So, How did you do?"

So along comes a bummer of a Friday and you're planning for the long weekend when "Whap!" the market starts to slide and oil goes screaming skyward.  You click over to this site at 9:45 AM and read Robin Landry's prediction of a possible close down 350-points.  Today, we have to ask the sometimes difficult question: "How did you do?"

 

OK, the drop was the eighth worst in the history of the Dow - but I reckon we could do even worse next week, not that key support (by Landry's work, 12,269) has been broken.

 

I don't mind sharing my portfolio's performance.  I was down $39-bucks for the day, would have actually been a small gain, but coffee dropped a bit in the commodity market after being up earlier..  What the hell, right? 

 

My outlook on the markets for quite some time has been that a person would have to be a darned fool to be loaded up on paper assets which are little more than paper with ink - the same kind of stuff that I can crank out of my laser printer..  Of course, because I won't break counterfeiting, or any other laws that I'm aware of, I won't put "Good for all debts Public and Private" on it, although even that is disappearing with some stores now requiring credit cards in order to comply with anti-terrorism laws, but that's another discussion.

 

A long term chart of the S&P sure looks like a double top is in to some of our readers.

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Stand Up Economics:  I've developed a handy form to help you come to terms with the new economic reality.  Print this off and fill it in when your spouse isn't around.  You probably hate hearing "I told you so..." just as much as any of us.

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       THE URBANSURVIVAL.COM  FINANCIAL INTELLIGENCE QUIZ

 

Time allowed:  2-minutes.

 

1.  Stock/Commodity portfolio net worth at close Thurs June 5:   _______________

 

2.  (minus) Portfolio net worth at close Fri. June 6:                      _______________

 

3.  NET DIFFERENCE   (Calculators OK)                   _____________________

 

Scoring:

If Line 2 is no more than  $100 less than line 1, you are smart, well positioned and should sleep well this weekend.  Give yourself an "A".  If the market continues tumbling toward the next support level at 10,986  you might lose $500.  But so what?  You've probably gambled and lost more than that in either Las Vegas or in a previous marriage.  Cut yourself some slack.  Have a Bloody Mary and steak and eggs Sunday.  Or, if you're vegan, a spinach & mushroom  quiche and champagne.  You earned it.

 

If Line 2 is more than $100 less than line 1, but less than $1,000 less, give yourself a "B".  Assign yourself some homework however.  Read back issues of Peoplenomics that cover the disintegration of paper assets to come and consider various alternatives to maintain at least a larger portion of your life's savings if the financial ship of state goes turtle.  At least you're trying:  For Sunday breakfast, bacon and eggs and a beer is all.  If you're vegan, a bowl of Total and a beer.

 

If line 2 is more than $1,000 less than line 1, but less than $10,000, give yourself a "C".  You are likely still not going to do well next week, but you're probably locked into a 'buy and hold mindset' and are oblivious to the fact that on an inflation adjusted basis, the Dow needs to be at 14,667.58 right now in order to have retained its purchasing power hit in  the Spring of 2000.  The fact that your retirement purchasing power of those hard-fought 2000 dollars has dropped more than 16.7% over the past  8 1/2 years doesn't seem to phase you because you are either really really rich, or verging on stupid.  In fact, I wonder about giving you a "C", but I'm in a generous mood.  For Sunday morning breakfast, two eggs, toast, and a glass of milk.  If you're vegan, a glass of juice and a fruit salad.

 

If line 2 is more than $10,000 less than line 1, but less than $50,000, you are either dumber than a stick or you're a hopelessly addict gambler.  In either case you get  a "D" for your financial performance.  It's way too late to brace for the possible next leg down Monday-Wednesday or next week, but please consider rehab or group therapy and get off whatever it is you're on.  You've been hoodwinks by the MainStream Media and are incapable of independent thought.  Consider appointing a smarter relative (hopefully one who scored a "B" or better on this quiz) as your legal guardian for all financial matters.  For Sunday morning breakfast, reward yourself with dry, toast (no butter) and a glass of water.  If you're vegan, just read the cereal box, eat half an apple.

 

If line 2 is more than $50,000(or more) less than line 1 give yourself an "E".  Hide all sharp instruments and have a relative come over and take all your guns and ammo away.  Do not look at any market reports until at least Thursday of next week.  For Sunday breakfast, don't eat anything.  Not only do you not deserve it, but the enormity of your foolishness may be starting to sink in and you won't really feel like eating for a week or two anyway.  If you're vegan, prepare for your new lifestyle by eating a phone book.

 

"Incomplete"  If you take more than 2-minutes to get your portfolio balances, you are not keeping your eye on the ball.  Give yourself an E minus.  Go hungry Sunday, Write a $100 check to the local food bank while you still can because you will likely need their help sooner than youi think.  If you're vegan, write the check and then eat the check register.

 

Click to submit your score:

 

I got an "A"  Can I be Treasury Secretary for Ron Paul?

 

I got a "B"  Can I be Vice President for Ron Paul?

 

I got a "C".  Can I be CEO of GM?

 

I got a "D"  Can I be CEO of Lehman?

 

I got an "E"  Can I be Treasury Secretary for Hillary Clinton?

RETESTING NEXT WEEK:  Save this test and take it again Tuesday after the close.  Use the Friday closing balance and the Tuesday closing balance for the retest.

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OK, so much for Mr. Ure's odd sense of humor.  Here, have a shot of Jack.

 

Trouble Ahead?  Bank on it!

An email from a reader got my attention:

Hi George, reading your site on daily basis; thanks for the common sense and the unfiltered info. Here's my question: recently I was in Europe and I tried opening an account in a European bank (in Paris to be exact), the manager looked straight into my eyes and said that they have a directive from high above not to open accounts for US citizens and actually they have asked every us citizen who has an account with them to leave the bank (banks name is ***), very disappointed I created a havoc about discrimination, human rights etc (with bankers? what was I thinking?), then I lectured my wife (she's French) about the freedoms in our country and rotten values in Europe; a week later I'm in LA in my bank (Bank of ******) where my friend is the manager and he told me that they've just asked all euro pen citizens to clear the bank; plain and simple, to take their money and get lost; what do you thing is going on? something is in works.

Yes.  It's warring currencies!  What have we been telling you?  $139 oil is just the start!  First we hy6perinflate and then we collapse.  Quite simple.  The monetarists mantra "Crack-up Boom" comes to mind, eh?  For recent pointers, instead of going to Europe, next time try Argentina or still,  Zimbabwe where the currency has become unusable.  You see, that's the beauty of digidollars.  Just slide the decimal point and keep on printing....

 

Six Dollar Gas

Speaking of warring currencies and such, and the pressures to launch a preemptive attack on Iran over oil (although it will be spun otherwise) you do know that Iran has it's commodity bourse open and all that remains its to turn on oil trading in Euros right?

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The run-up of oil prices this week about ensures $6 gas this summer.  here's why: 

 

A barrel of oil is 42 gallons.  That means the raw material cost to make gasoline or diesel is $3.33 a gallon.  Now, what do you reckon the cracking (distillation) costs are?  I would guess a dollar.  And transportation and Federal taxes?  Another buck, you think?  And then what about mark-up for the retailer?  50-cents, maybe?  Throw on a heap of state and local taxes and we're there!  Just has to come through the supply chain to you.

 

Look for war to show up about when gas goes over $6 dollars.  The pols & hacks will then blame Iran (or whoever) and the dumber of our countrymen will buy it.

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BTW, coming up on Sunday through Wednesday, look for some horrific kind of mass murder/emotionally grabby news event as a possibility.  Bob Hitt, www.astroecon.com, has this theory that when tensions are really building up which could trash the market, one way to defuse the emotions that would otherwise tear down the market is for the PTB to 'stage' an emotion-grabbing news event.  If it happens, remember to recognize it.  Might have 'occult' numerology associated with it too, like 5, 7, 11, 19, 33...that kind of thing.  Just watching, not predicting anything specific.

 

Paving Crew Layoffs?

The high price of petroleum product could cut down the amount of road work done this summer.  I have a few friends that put themselves through engineering school working paving crews because it used to pay pretty well...

 

Hungry for Truth?

Stan and Holly Deyo have a darn good site to visit - and an article they sniffed out of the Tri State Observer in Pennsylvania is worthy of note:  ""The U.S. Has No Remaining Grain Reserves" says the headline. 

 

Who told you to plant a garden this spring?

 

Golden Time

I don't need to remind you about gold being up $24 on Friday, do I?  Back over $900 and I figure headed for $1,500 shortly.  But, I'm in no hurry - no plans to sell.  What would I get, paper? LOL

 

"Them Winds": Chart Please?

No, I have no idea why the National Weather Service hadn't posted the updated Tornado Trend chart on Friday as I expected they would...  too much of a bummer, maybe?  Or, still counting?  We'll just keep clicking, then...

 

Around the Ranch:  Much To Do

...about everything!  A special strategic outlook edition of Peoplenomics is coming up for subscribers.  We'll try to get a bead on a best, middle, and worst case for the rest of the year. 

 

Tons of rancherly things in the mill today, but first a hot shower, a big farm-style breakfast, and oh, gosh, I'm hungry.  See you Monday?

 

Peoplenomics.com 

Multiplexing the Market

"Psst!  Buddy...got a hot tip for yah on a stock that's going to the moon...."  You probably get as many emailed 'tips' as I do - and some days it's dozens touting this stock or that.  This week, we take on the task of trying to assess the various methods of predicting the future both of markets in general and particular securities and commodities by combining multiple inputs.  On the way, some thoughts on graphically representing and weighting of the various (multiplexed) inputs, but first we begin by stepping back to understand the true purpose of market research.  This is really part one of two because next week, we'll explore whether financial remote viewing, as yet another non-traditional method to intuit future market direction might be another avenue of study....      More For Subscribers    

 

Not a Subscriber?  It's just $40/Year: 

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Tell Your Friends

UrbanSurvival has a very interesting business model - one that depends on growth.  This busin4ess model is a lot like capitalism in that growth is required, but of course we won't ever get to cutting down the rainforests. So even if you don't subscribe to our premium newsletter at www.peoplenomics.com, please tell everyone you know about this site.  The more this site grows, the more time and content will show up on the free site...  Click here to send 'em an invite...  Thank you!

 

"Live on $10,000" Updated

There's now a single-page website devoted to my little ebook "How to Live on $10,000 a year (or less) at www.liveontenthousand.com.  Yep - still possible.  I also took a bit of additional material that was pertinent from recent issues of Peoplenomics and included them.  The whole thing runs about 65 pages, but it gives you a vision of how to not only live on the aforementioned dollar amount, but also how to migrate up the economic foodchain if you make a little more than that and do some active savings...  Click here for the page with more details on it.

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Last week's report is here.    For back issues of this site, click here.  (Goes back to 1997!)

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I promised Elaine that I would unload some of my equipment, so if you're looking for ham gear, especially the older tube-type (EMP resistant) type, send me a note and I will send out the list of what I'm selling off when I get it together.    Click here to  Put Me On Ham Gear List

 

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Friday June 6, 2008

Urgent Update:  Landry "5-Minute Chart Breakdown!"

I just had a call from my stock broker friend Robin Landry with an urgent report. 

"George, the 5-minute chart is in breakdown mode if I am reading it right - means that the market may close down 350 or more today.  Let me explain the technical picture:

 

Based on the movement in the 5-minute chart, either today or early next week we are likely to go down and test the 12,269 Dow level.  now, if we get through that, the next major level of support comes around 10,986.  Look for the PPT to be in action late session today or early next week unless something big changes.

 

Then if we get through that, the 10,986 level, we could see all hell break loose and Bob Prechter could be right.  We could be looking at a retest within a week or two of the 7,400 levels which came in as the 2002 lows.

"OK, what about oil and commodities?"

"George there are two wave counts on oil.  One of them says the price of oil shoots up to about $150 and then comes down to around $50.  But the other says that oil have an extended fifth wave which would take it up to the $300 to $500 a barrel range."

I then asked Landry what he thought about the Big Picture.  One of his concerns is that if it looks like we're going to take out the 12,269 level, then the Fed will have to come in with the PPT and they will have to pump like crazy.  However, if you're keeping track, I think the Fed has burned through $450 billion of their $600 billion credit facility, and a major run in the markets now, especially if coupled with another major player bankruptcy of another investment bank, would put the quality of the US dollar in serious question.

 

If THAT happens, there would be a huge crisis of confidence in the currency, which would give us the momentum to the downside to attack the 10,986 level, and should that fail, then the way is open for 7,400.  But, because the dollar would be collapsing, and remember this is what the predictive linguistics have been forecasting, then we could get a huge burst of inflation in the commodities and gold which are real things, as opposed to notional.

 

Landry (email: rlandry@allegiance.tv ) is hoping, like any rational person would, that events don't work out this way.  But, in case you were wondering, this would lead to the kind of hyperinflationary blow-off top in commodity markets which I've been positioned for in my personal account for a couple of months.  The trick, if it happens, will be to take the commodity gains at the top and then roll in to the very defensive sectors like foreign denominated paper and US Treasuries (like Jas Jain has been in for a good long while) because at that point, after a hyperinflationary burst, we could be setting up for the long Kondratiev Wave long Winter's night.

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This is not investment advice.  You own your own paper, kiddo.

 

Truth Leak: Unemployment Climbing

 

An Inconvenient Reality

Although much of the country is at long last starting to warm up, a few alert readers have been sending me links to real data on the other side of the global warming claims.  One, for example, sent me the headline "UAH: Global Temperature Dives in May"  You know that's the University of Alabama - Huntsville, right?

 

Meantime, people in the Pacific Northwest are looking at an extremely cold start to June with the forecast this weekend only around 60  while the lows at night have been in the mid 40's in the suburban areas around the jet/emerald city.

 

Not to pick on Seattleites, but the weather almanac says the town has had almost 300 more heating days in the past year than is normal.

 

Other cities are right on averages, take LA cooling days, for example.  A quirk, you're thinking?  Well, how about Chicago?  Only 21 cooling days so far this year, compared with 75 as an average.

 

"Unfair, George!"  I can here you thinking (it's pretty quiet out here in the hinterlands of East Texas, and besides, you think loudly).  Care to look at New York City?  The almanac shows just three more cooling days than usual for this month, but year-to-date NYC is 39 cooling days behind YTD averages.

 

"Well, what about the Midwest, then?"  Ah.  How's about Kansas City, Missouri?  51 cooling days behind for the yearly average.

 

"Dallas then?"  At last!  somewhere running on the hot side: A whopping 284 cooling days ahead.  Good call.  But, then I would counter with Phoenix which is right on its averages and Milwaukee where summer hasn't quiet arrived yet.

 

I could sit here and go through the point/counter-point all morning, but the University of Alabama-Huntsville numbers are real.

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Remember the reports recently where I mention to you that the longer term predictive linguistics out of www.halfpasthuman.com have come up with years which can be summarized as single words?  If I remember right, 2007 was the year of 'emergence" while here in 2008 we're in the midst of the year of "manifestation" and next year after a really bad fall to come we will be going through a year of "transformation", got it?

 

My sense is that science is being used for political purposes here. 

 

Just suppose for just a moment that there is a "hidden hand" of a real power elite that runs the world.  Further, suppose that these people have very long-term agendas and that they start working issues that they need to manage the world long before they show up in the mass consciousness of humans.

 

An example might be a group like the Council on Foreign Relations and how they have been working the issue of a North American trading/economic block.  They start working the issue, then it shows up at the www.spp.gov web site, and the first thing youi know, GW is off meeting with the heads of Mexico and Canada forming up a literal North American Union which - without approval of Congress is busily not building the border fence, and is promoting RealID as a do it or lose your money deal to the states.  Not that it matters, since CONgress abdicated the day after 9/11, but that's a different rap.

 

So if you have the somewhat conspiratorial view of things in mind, and you are open to some hard science here and there, then it's not difficult to see how the PowerThatBe would take an apparent trend, and spin it on a grand scale that is so vast as to be almost unthinkable.

 

Here's what I mean:

 

Recall that in early 2000 Al Gore lost the presidential bid to GW.  As a result, he had lots of sympathy going for himself and a big political power base.  What did he choose to do?  Answer: Become the de facto leader of a "Global Warming Crusade".  He picked off a Nobel Prize and to this day has developed a huge following of Global Warming True Believers who will take most anything as Gospel, as long as it supports the notion put forth by the great Carbon Credit promoter.

 

Now some additional inconvenient truths.  We know from 30-seconds worth of research that in 2006 New Scientist Magazine was reporting that "Scientists Predict Solar Downturn, Global Cooling."

 

For something like this to make it into a scholarly publication in 2006, one can reasonably figure that the idea of the sun spots and cooling had been known of for a long time.  If not a decade, then at least a five-year heads up would be reasonable.  Ideas don't just pop into journals the next day after someone dreams them up.

 

Suppose further, that the PTB have got a good grip on what happens in academic circles and they pencil out how the trajectory of global warming/cooling is going to go based not on greenhouse gas emissions, but on the real driver which is solar in nature.  You read recently how the spot of Jupiter was changing due to solar effects, right? 

 

So, here's what you'd do:  You'd get a cooperating figure with lots of global standing who has nothing to do (like Al Gore, maybe?)  Get some 'advisors' around him, and send him off promoting the Global Warming meme.

 

Then, as warming hit its peak, you'd make the big push or reforms.

 

Click forward to day's headline which got me started on all of this:

"$45 trillion needed to combat global warming"

What we see right now is the Big Push for money.  Why money?  Economic systems depend on growth in order to show ever-increasing profits.  Without huge sink holes into which resources can be shoved, the economy seizes up, markets crash, and that sort of thing.  If you think that explains Iraq and soon Iran, give yourself a gold star for the day.

 

The true gracefulness of the techniques of the PTB come into focus.  Take a long-term trend (slipping into cooling now) and collect tons of money ($45 trillion plus).  As the longer-term trend continues to play out, you're then able to stand up (via well meaning proxies like you-know-who) and proclaim victory over Global Warming.

 

Neat process, huh?  Not the kind of thing that will ever make it to mainstream, but if you sit back there's what my software engineering friends call a "design pattern" here.  Besides, given $45-trillion, peak oil, and a public that's become fed up with war, fighting Global Warming is a much better sink hole for capital.

 

I expect this is what the Year of "Transportation" will be about.  A very sophisticated use of long term trends to continue the social engineering that allows a very small group of very rich and powerful families to remain in power. 

 

Remember, Bill Clinton's already promoting Chelsea for the White House.

 

The second book by Confessions of an Economic Hit Man author John Perkins is out. "The Secret History of the American Empire: The Truth About Economic Hit Men, Jackals, and How to Change the World "   He writes about some of the 'hidden hand' actions, too....

 

Quaking

Scientists are getting close to a breakthrough on earthquake predictions based on 'energies from space"..

 

--- snip and save section ---

 

Coping: Applying Common Sense

A couple of readers had some concerns about using hydrogen peroxide for various purposes that were listed in yesterday's report.  One said that using  hydrogen peroxide would cause more scarring than if you use other methods to take care of a cut.  And my eldest daughter pointed out that if used as a douche, a solution of hydrogen peroxide might increase the odds of a yeast infection because it tends to kill both good and bad bacteria.

 

I don't offer medical advice; the information is presented as a starting point for your own further research.  We keep hydrogen peroxide around the house because it is very useful for certain things like cuts.  I'm not worried about scarring, for example, and if I get gored by a goat, I have no problem with bleeding a bit, sloshing around hydrogen peroxide, closing with a home-made butterfly bandage with a good dab of  Bacitracin or the generic equivalent under it.  (Equate antibiotic ointment is the gener5ic at Wal-Mart.)

---

We've been slowly accumulating a few more Band-Aids and triple antibiotic ointment tubes than would otherwise seem 'normal' and having a glimmer of what's ahead for the Fall, a few other minor healthcare items will be checked off.  A tooth item here, a something or other there.

 

A word about planning:  Hydrogen peroxide should probably not be a part of your long-term medical supplies.  The 'regular' bottles of the stuff at many grocery stores has 'stabilizers' in it, while 'food grade' H2O2 may have a longer shelf life.

 

So here's a link to a bunch of Google returns.  Ask your doctor or healthcare professional and above all, like with anything else in medicine or finance, apply a large helping of common sense first.

 

All Stoved Up

As soon as the weather break, but before the financial markets fall apart this Fall, I'm planning to add one more addition to the house.  It will be a library wing on the house.  Probably on the other of 12 by 14 or 14 by 14 with more than just books.  I'm planning on a wood stove of some kind in order to keep the chill off the house in the wintertime without needing power.  Surrounded by trees and such, I figure we should be able to chase off the cold and have enough heating to be able to do some basic cooking without power.

 

I don't know if you have been stove shopping lately, but now is a darn fine time to be stocking up on the things that youi may wish to have later on in the year if your job goes away, or if there are simply 'stay home days' in the event Middle East oil is cut off, or there are no-driving days - depending on how the ME mess works out.

 

While there are some fairly inexpensive wood stoves out there, the time monks have been snooping in this area too and they've found that tent stoves seem to be underpriced relative to the rest of the market.

 

For example, the "Four Dog Stove" company has something called the "Four Dog DX" which

claims to hold a fire all night, or the "Five Dog Stove" which goes for just $300 and you can add a water-heating 'sidecar' to it for $95.  With shipping, that comes to about $500 which I reckon is about as cheap as I have seen for a woodstove that heats water.

 

Oh, and if you ever need to take part in the great Diaspora (dispersing of peoples) this thing can be broken down and it is designed to heat a tent, so if you have this thing and a number of blue tarps and a buck saw, you could actually cobble together a heated teepee pretty easily. 

 

If you've got a plan, such as the one I put up for Peoplenomics subscribers a while back, (joining with a number of relatives to get one house with some land free and clear so the family can have a start-over place) then it may be appropriate to start thinking now about the kind of strategic supplies that could be laid in now, so that when/if really bad times arrive, you've have something to do.

 

IF things really do go south in a major way, yoiu'll be miles ahead of other folks, and thus able to share skills and resources, if you spend some time now acquiring things.  As yourself "If the power went off right now, what would be my process of getting into a high survivability mode of living?"  "If I had to relocate, what food, medicines, and tools would I have to take with me?"

 

One other thought:  While I hold vegan friends in extremely high regard, I'm reminded of a comment made by a farmer/reader: "When David fled to Ahimelech, he wasn't driving his carrots before him...".  Goats are a little easier for that...

 

No, the 'fatted ram' is not a memory upgrade for a PC, although curiously if you Google 'fatted ram" you will get a couple of Adwords listing for CPU ram...  Given a choice between fleeting with a ram (of the sort with horns) or a PC, guess what my pick would be?

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Send snip and save ideas to george@ure.net

---end snip and save section ---

 

Around the Ranch:  Rain and Plants

On Wednesday of this week, Elaine went to town and made a supply run, only to spy an attractive looking plant at the local (chain) hardware emporium's outdoor plan center.  Not having room in the car  for it, she paid for it and promised to come back the next day to pay for it which, of course, she did. 

 

When the plant arrive home, she carried in onto the front porch as the best route into the living room/ garden room which was to be its final destination.  It was about then, however, that she noticed it was infested with creepy-crawlies that had more legs than simple worms. 

 

Quick as a wink, back into a plastic bag and then back to the hardware emporium.  The lesson?  Even though you might buy a plant from a respected retailer, there's a certain amount of due diligence expected on the part of the user.

 

There was a time when I hated to take things back to the store if it wasn't just right.  I used to be one of those people who figured "Heck, my bad, I'll just eat it."  But, no more.  If there's one habit that folks in the coming 'economic transformation' will really need to get in to, it's the matter of demanding your money's worth on every purchase you make.

 

I don't want to give you the idea that I'm turning into an unreasonable person; I may have already been one.  But, as the harder times come along over the next year, just remember that you don't have to put up with defective or second rate merchandise:  If you play with first-class money, you should be getting first class goods.

---

My neighbor across the road brought me a nice present yesterday - a new rain gauge.

 

Buying new things around the ranch has been interesting.  For about a month after we put in the new (bigger) central air conditioning system in the house, the weather ran much cooler than normal.  However, about 30-days past the installation, it turned summertime hot and it hasn't turned back since.

 

In fact, it was 78 degrees on the way to work this morning; that's a 50-foot walk between buildings.

 

So, the way I have it figured is this:  I don't expect any measurable rain for about 30-days or so, but if the air conditioning system is any indicator, it may turn into an unusually wet end-of-summer down here in Texas, although the neighbor's pond which he had cut in with a dozer about 2-years ago, has continued to prove its efficiency at keep large-scale rains at bay...

 

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Thursday June 5, 2008

Declaration of Insanity

OK, I don't want to make too big a deal about this, but am I the only sane/not spaced out on drugs/thinking human left alive here in Fortress America?  I'm going to give you two simple facts and then you tell me is there any sanity left in the USA?

• Home Foreclosures set record in first quarter

• Dow up 144  (at print/ftp time)

 

No, you're not crazy and neither and I - the financial world is!

 

Short Takes Thursday

Since there are a couple of comedy writers who read this site pretty regularly (along with the genius of contemporary carton satire) I thought it would be fun to keep things short and light, for a change.  No strain, no pain, and no gains Thursday as it were...

 

The American sense of humor has either outdone the British in dryness, or we really are completely mad as a nation.  But wait!  Wars for oil, built on lies and spin, soaring size of government, trashing of the Great Constitution (bound for replacement by The Big Book of Executive Orders) and so forth is surely all evidence that we have a sense of humor; not that we gone completely crazy.  Gosh, there is still 40-some percent of the population that is not on drugs.   Surely only the sober-minded and unmediated are still in control of things, right?

 

The Runs:  In the End...

Hillary.

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Did I say some of this would be short, or what?  No question her throwing support behind Obama now is little more than a bid for a better chair in the Cabinet.  Are there better VP choices about?  What, are you kidding?  You been hitting the sauce a little early today?

 

The Runs, II: No Name Calling

"McCain: Don't call me Bush".  OK, How about "The More of the Same candidate"?

 

Speaking of Dry

"Schwarzenegger declares drought in California"  Match that and you're fired.

 

Fighting Trends

Passage of Pro 99 in California this week is no laughing matter: Shows that voters don't want government to have unchecked power of eminent domain.  That's where nanny state and nanny local government sucks up land and turns it over to private developers for the 'greater good' of the community.  Cool that...  Wait, this is getting far too serious...

 

Bucking Trends

The Fed is now admitting to some worries about inflation and that in turn has helped buoy the dollar a bit.  That makes absolutely no sense to me, but investors are crazy.

 

This leaves the paper hucksters laughing at the real money types (like me).  But he who laughs last, laughs best reckon... Want to compare 5-year average returns?

 

More Happy Talk

Wall Street futures point to a model rise on the street at the open today.  Costco same store sales are up 9%.  OK, how much of that is due to INFLATION?  Why don't reporters ask THAT?  Do I have to get back into writing for a 'blessed' news outlet to get reporters thinking? Criminnee sakes...

 

Sweet Mrs. Olson Department

Smuckers is planning to buy the Folger's coffee unit from P&G.  

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Consulting in marketing (and other things) as I do when I'm  not trying to be a financial Mark Twain, here's my freebee of the week from consulting practice. 

New positioning statement: "Wake up and Smell the Jam!"

Hey!  If Smuckers doesn't like it, maybe I could peddle it to Lehman....

 

(You realize there are only 250 employees in the Folger unit?  Wonder how much company product it takes to get them amped to make that much product, huh?  Yeah, I'll take a warm-up, thanks!)

 

Speaking of Which...

As Roger Reynolds mentioned in his note to us yesterday, Lehman was making all kinds of headlines.  They're off to see the wizards looking to raise some cash...

 

Yellow Bricks Road Work

OK, so the Bernanke remarks were good for the dollar and hard on gold.  As I said admitting that inflation may be a problem and seeing metals go down just amazes the hell out of me.  But then again, over half the country is on drugs so maybe it makes sense after all...

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Whew!  That's about it in terms of 'start the morning off on the light side.  Now, grab the second cup while we drop into serious mode for a few minutes:

 

"What's Your Beef?" Department:  High Cost of Living

More than any one thing, I've got concerns about how most of the country will fare this fall when the combination of soaring food prices and falling home financing catch up with the majority of Americans and put our collective you-know-whats in a vice financially.  (Fill in your favorite gender-specific body part there.)

 

The Department of Agriculture has announced plans to open another 24-million acres of land to haying and grazing.  Sounds great, but what does that mean?  We can do a little math here and come up with a guesstimate, I suppose.  Just something to help us ballpark things.

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I always get in trouble when I approach a calculator with only the first cup of coffee powering me, but here goes: 

 

24 million acres would be a chunk of land is about 37,500 square miles of land, or a piece of land roughly 194 miles on a side.  Good-sized hunk of ground. About the size of a Wal-Mart parking lot.

 

Using a grazing rate of one-head for each five acres that would raise 4.8-million head of cattle.  Of course, if some of the land it is in dry areas, that might be much less - one head for 20 or 30 acres.  But, in keeping with the optimistic tone of the day let's call it that.

 

Now, how much meat comes out of each head of cattle?  Throw a dart.  650 pounds, plus a leather handbag, 2 pair of shoes and a few packs of gelatin?  Some glue, and so forth?  OK, then.  How many pounds of beef?  3,120,000,000 pounds.

 

How many people in the USA?  Divide the pounds of beef by 300,000,000 people and you get about 10.4 pounds per person in the USA.  Just as a guess.

 

Of course, that will be spread out over time, because cattle take a while to raise (a year or so).  And that's not all T-bones, or filet mignons.  Nope, lots of hamburger and stew meat.  And that's eating a whole crapper-load of corn in a feed lot, too.

 

And, don't forget the prime cuts will mostly go to restaurants and a fair chunk of the good stuff will be exported, although South Korea is maintaining its beef ban.  Best beef I have found here in East Texas so far is the deli at the Noonday Texas Chevron station, believe it or not. Have to call Brinks for an escort, but the stuff is prime or near 'nuf to it.   (Sourcing suggestions welcome, however.)

 

Police State Department: Restrictions on Travel

So as if the 'travel by weight' trial balloon isn't enough of a clue about restrictions on travel, we notice that the police chief of Washington D.C. is planning to slap blue curtains around particularly troublesome neighborhoods.

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So I am scratching my head wondering "Why these kind of restrictions?"  Then I get an email from a reader: "Bilderbergers set to meet in D.C."  Huh?  Think there's any connection between elitists meeting there and a police state-like "Papers Please?" to get into a neighborhood? 

 

Fortress America!  here we come...  Ooops!  There already?

 

Air Travel to Crash?

Continental cutting 3,000 jobs.  And out of Chicago: UAL is in survival mode.

 

Too late to short hotels and rental car stocks?

 

Well-Founded Speculation

Earlier this week I said "With all the furor over Danish cartoons of the Prophet, I imagine the Danish embassy bombing may laid on extremists.  Fast-forward to today.  "Al Qaida claims Danish embassy blast."  Not a tough call, though.

 

Besides aftershocks, there's still extreme danger from that quake lake in China.

 

'Them Winds' Meme

True, bad winds/ tornados in Indiana and the Ohio Valley, but it's not over yet, we reckon.

 

We're a little worried about he the weather for this afternoon through the weekend.  Some of the 'old-timer' weather forecasters are saying in the Midwest that things are lining up almost like 1974 when a killer weekend of storms occurred. 

 

The low temperatures in the Pacific Northwest, plus high heat in the South mean a collision of front will occur over the next three days or so.  We're bracing for more bad news about what's already been a way out-of-ordinary tornado season so far.

 

You're welcome to be skeptical of the predictive linguistics work that let us forecast a record-setting tornado year way back in December, but click here, look at the chart, and you'll see how really serious this year has been...

 

Next Worry (like youi need one, right?)  That the hurricane season will be as bad, or worse.

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Note to the MSM  An unofficial source in the Midwest insurance adjusting field tells me that right now, the major home insurance companies have more people deployed doing damage adjusting work than were deployed in hurricanes Katrina and Rita combined.  Come on insurance company PR Departments!  Let's get that news release out today before the big round of storms over the next few days... I expect to see/hear this on MSM not later than tomorrow or Saturday --- OK, as Monday morning feature then...

 

Nuclear War Can Ruin Your Week Department

This note is worth reading.

 

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Coping: Off-Label Uses

A few good off-label uses have come in:

For a cracked door jamb, rotted post, any place where you need a wood filler: use Bondo. Yes, the stuff from the auto parts store. Follow instructions on the can.

If you have a door hinge where the screws fall out, don't use Bondo for that, use epoxy glue. And when you wish you had a mold to keep it from dripping off, use masking tape. It just peels off after the glue cures.

And if the masking tape dries out, get it off with a drop of lighter fluid. Just a drop.

Lots of uses coming in for hydrogen peroxide - apparently, it's not just for blondes any more.  Some of these are controversial, so please check out other sources..

1. Take one capful (the little white cap that comes with the bottle) and hold in your mouth for 10 minutes daily, then spit it out. (I do it when I bathe or shower) No more canker sores and your teeth will be whiter without expensive pastes. Use it instead of mouthwash.

2. Let your toothbrushes soak a cup peroxide to keep them free of germs.

3. Clean your counters, table tops with peroxide to kill germs and leave a fresh smell. Simply put a little on your dishrag when you wipe, or spray it on the counters.

4. After rinsing off your wooden cutting board, pour peroxide on it to kill salmonella and other bacteria.

5. I had fungus on my feet for years - until I sprayed a 50/50 mixture of peroxide and water on them (especially the toes) every night and let dry.

6. Soak any infections or cuts in 3% peroxide for five to ten minutes several times a day. My husband has seen gangrene that would not heal with any medicine, but was healed by soaking in peroxide.

7. Put two capfuls into a douche to prevent yeast infections. I had chronic yeast infections until I tried this once or twice a week.

8. Fill a spray bottle with a 50/50 mixture of peroxide and water and keep it in every bathroom to disinfect without harming your septic system like bleach or most other disinfectants will.

9. Tilt your head back and spray into nostrils with your 50/50 mixture whenever you have a cold, plugged sinus. It will bubble and help to kill the bacteria. Hold for a few minutes then blow your nose into tissue.

10. If you have a terrible toothache and can not get to a dentist right away, put a capful of 3% peroxide into your mouth and hold it for ten minutes several times a day. The pain will lessen greatly.

11. And of course, if you like a natural look to your hair, spray the 50/50 solution on your wet hair after a shower and comb it through. You will not have the peroxide burnt blonde hair like the hair dye packages, but more natural highlights if your hair is a light brown, faddish, or dirty blonde. It also lightens gradually so it's not a drastic change.

12. Put half a bottle of peroxide in your bath to help rid boils, fungus, or other skin infections. 13. You can also add a cup of peroxide instead of bleach to a load of whites in your laundry to whiten them. If there is blood on clothing, pour directly on the soiled spot. Let it sit for a minute, then rub it and rinse with cold water. Repeat if necessary.

But the best one so far is this one:

When you’ve mixed a little too much of that Scotch with your soda water, Pedialyte Pops (in the baby aisle at most grocery stores) make a nice hangover cure... :-)

Is this site useful, or what?

 

Travel by the Pound Feedback

The idea of airlines charging by the pound is a bad idea says a reader:

Hi George: This latest fiasco about airlines charging passengers based upon their weight really got my attention. I am a big guy of 260lbs. I gave up flying years ago when they stopped smoking on planes. That was bad enough. Since 9-11 there has been more and more restrictions imposed on airline passengers by government (DHS) which has further turned me against flying. This latest scheme about weight is a clear case of discrimination toward fat people. If you are cross-eyed and wear a baseball cap you might not be allowed to fly because you might be a terrorist. Just read an article on a British site where some guy wearing a tee-shirt with a cartoon character displaying a gun was not allowed to fly. Yes George it's getting ridiculous out there. Next they will want to chip you or take a blood sample to fly or drive a car. With this government anything is possible. Am I bitter? You bet.

Another reader points out:

Hi George:

From your site -

"The Air Transport Association is talking about the possibility of weighing people at the airport and charging them for their ticket by weight. Not a bad idea, although as one of my friends quipped, "Will this mean fewer women flying?""

I've seen many comments like this before - but is it really true?

From http://www.ahrq.gov/RESEARCH/jan07/0107RA19.htm 

"Although 57 percent of men were overweight (body mass index or BMI of 25 to 30 kg/m2) compared with 43 percent of women, 54 percent of women were obese (BMI of 30 or more) compared with 46 percent of men......."

In general, the percentage of men who are overweight is significantly greater than the percentage of women.

Yeah, but the headline of the article says "Women are more likely than men to suffer health problems and worse quality of life due to obesity..."

 

Just Because You're Paranoid...

A reader is worried about people's food sources being bought up and controlled.  He points to this link ("Food is gold, so Billions Invested in Farming") and asks:

"... a few big private investors are starting to make bolder and longer-term bets that the world’s need for food will greatly increase — by buying farmland, fertilizer, grain elevators and shipping equipment.

One has bought several ethanol plants, Canadian farmland and enough storage space in the Midwest to hold millions of bushels of grain. "

I guess you could say that the PTB are making a big move to control food supplies. But' that's paranoid, right?"

No that's not paranoid.  They really are out to get us. That's what the Framers of the Constitution were trying to prevent before the Age of Too Many Lawyers.  And it's why I've been urging you all year to plant what?

 

Germany Faces Dairy Shortages as Farmers' Protests Escalate says Spiegel Online.

 

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Send comments and quips to george@ure.net.

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Wednesday June 4, 2008

Energy Breakthrough of a Lifetime?

'Is it really 'ground floor'  or hype?" I ask myself. 

 

Usually, when a company makes an announcement, I toss it immediately into the round file.  But the recent announcement by Backlight Power brought to my attention by an email from a reader has me wondering a bit about whether the world is on the verge of dramatic change. 

 

The very long-range work of the predictive linguistics team has imagery of a much more 'electric' world ahead, but where would the power for such an 'electric world' come from?  Solar?  Not enough kilowatts and not mobile.  In the back of my mind, the 1989 work of Stanley Pons and Martin Fleischmann in cold fusion keep swirling around.  Now the reader email:

quote from Monday.... "...headlines tell us that "Oil price supernova spurs search for alternatives."

speaking of headlines, Black Light Power, Inc, a private R&D company (with emphasis on cutting-edge atomic physics and chemistry) has been on this trail for 15+ years, last week made an announcement of the completion of a prototype power system that generates 50,000 watts of thermal power on demand using a new energy source.

"BlackLight Power Inc. is the inventor of a paradigm-shifting new primary energy source and a new field of hydrogen chemistry with broad commercial applications." .... http://www.blacklightpower.com/ 

"The BlackLight process generates enormous amounts of cheap, non-polluting heat that will replace the thermal power of coal, oil, gas, and nuclear power plants that is then converted to energy."

more on BLP in the wake of the news release here.... http://venturebeat.com/2008/05/30/blacklight-power-claims-nearly-free-energy-from-water-is-this-for-real/ 

 "but it could be even bigger george. much bigger!!! if you dig into this  company's work you'll see what i mean. one of the guys that works with  us has been following so-called cutting-edge energy solutions for  several years as a hobby. anyone following and investing time and energy  in such interests has ended up having their chain pulled so many times  they get veeeeeery discriminating. in the case of BLP he tells me he's  never before seen a "theory" proposed in this field that strives to  follow standard scientific practices of review, etc like BLP. he also  tells me that according to BLPs latest papers there will be another  paper available shortly regarding a 5th fundamental force....  gravity+EM+weak nuclear+strong nuclear+?????. this would, if it proves  out, be a walkin talkin paradigm shift in the GUT of physics. bigger  even that e=mc sq'd.  its always seemed a no-brainer to me that somewhere there is something  like a mirror force to G. so i fired off a query to him...

-----

 

care to speculate that F5 will turn out to be the counterpart to G?

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his reply....

 care to speculate that F5 will turn out to be the counterpart to G?  his reply....

 ----- 

"No speculation required. It is thoroughly detailed in Chapter 35 of  Volume III of his book. It provides a force in opposite direction to  gravity and is of a much larger magnitude. Counterpart is an interesting  word... Randy has discovered, however, that both the force of gravity  and the fifth force are related and caused based on the curvature of  fundamental particles, like the electron. 

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not exactly anti-gravity but space may be a whole lot closer in the very near future.

just the delusions of back-room junk science and some wackos looking to milk venture $$$$ which is so often the case? "Blacklight, by contrast, claims $60 million in funding, including about $10 million from electric utilities Conectiv and PacifiCorp, as well as amounts from unnamed hedge funds and members of its all-star board of directors, including Shelby Brewer, a Reagan-era US assistant secretary of nuclear energy, and Michael Jordan, CEO of Electronic Data Systems." check out the pedigree on that board of directors!

the downsides if the science proves out? i can think of several. new (some say it already exists) super-weaponry for one. for another - when civilization is pushed to crisis it has a tendency to go to work to overcome that crisis. i think its called the survival instinct. but it never fails that when humans get hold of something close to a free ride we tend to ride off further into devolution. and another? population will continue to explode and run-away consumerism will continue as we slowly starve and thirst to death while the planet pukes the poison we produce and have become!

but this is HUGE news george and everyone should keep a close eye on the developments over at BLP,

BlackLight Power is owned by Millsian, Inc, and they have some real horsepower, it seems, in computational chemical design technology...and I've downloaded the demo version of their software to see how it plays. 

 

The key thing for me while looking at the screenshot of their software is that they've got total bond energy and heat of formation energy for each of hundreds of molecules, if not thousands.

 

So far, this is passing my "sniff test" - it's exactly the kind of development environment from which a world-changing technology could come from... 

 

It occurs to me that if a company was doing world-class chemical engineering work that they'd be able to run an 'automated Edison" kind of approach and model out which chemical and which bonds would have maximal and minimal  heat of formation data.  That's why this is passing my sniff test.

 

The Millsian web site explains the company this way:

Millsian, Inc. is dedicated to developing the molecular modeling applications of The Grand Unified Theory of Classical Physics (GUT-CP), solving atomic and molecular structures by applying the classical laws of physics (Newton's and Maxwell's Laws) to the atomic scale.

The functional groups of all major classes of chemical bonding, including those involved in most organic molecules, have been solved exactly in closed-form solutions. By using these functional groups as building blocks, or independent units, a potentially infinite number of molecules can be solved. As a result, Millsian software can visualize the exact three-dimensional structure and calculate physical characteristics of almost any molecule of any length and complexity. While previous software based on traditional quantum methods resorted to approximations and required super computers for even simple systems, Millsian software requires no special expertise to solve complex proteins and DNA on a personal computer.

No, this is not advise to buy or sell any security - I DON'T GIVE FINANCIAL ADVICE.  Besides, I went shopping for them on eTrade this morning and couldn't find a listing.  So is this the real deal?  Standing by for more developments...but this one has my attention.

 

Oh, and if you're working on building an electric car out of that old Geo Metro, or whatever, that's you getting ahead of the curve if this technology pays off...

 

Working for Scale?

The Air Transport Association is talking about the possibility of weighing people at the airport and charging them for their ticket by weight.  Not a bad idea, although as one of my friends quipped, "Will this mean fewer women flying?" 

 

This may also wreak havoc with the future of the 6'4" ex-jocks who weigh in at 230 going into the corporate world.  Historically, taller men make more money than shorter men.  If companies have to buy airline tickets on weight in the future, hiring  5'7" 135 pound "junior" execs would make a lot of sense - they could fly at a 35-40% discount compared to the Big Guys.

---

Say, this  gets to be interesting.  Give me a great idea...and something that makes sense when you think about it.  Call this "George's Grand Healthcare Plan".  Here goes:

 

Since we are already having to take everything metal off at the airport, and since passengers are starting to be x-rayed, and since we're now heading toward weighing passengers, and since there's a case to be made against letting people fly on international flights if they are obviously sick, why don't we just make all TSA screeners doctors  and implement national health care at the airport?

 

Hell, I wait about the same length of time for an airplane as I do for a doctor's visit.  All the TSA would have to do is add a blood-pressure cuff and a few of those stick-in-your-ear thermometers and we'd be almost there. 

\

And if you're a male and over 50, or happen to look like a drug smuggler, you could get a dual-purpose prostate exam... oh, oh.  too much coffee this morning...

 

This Is Getting Old

Another story about how 90 is the new 50 for those of us who are on the "back side of 40" as the old country western song goes...

 

The Runs: She's Out

With the latest delegate count showing 2,154 for Obama and 1,926 for What's Her Name, I can only hope that Obama has enough sense to pick someone other than Hil for VP. 

 

Will Obama have the good sense to bring in a genuine fresh team, or is he going to go back to  corpgov style politics?  I wonder how many people like me would work actively against Obama if he brings Her aboard?  Time for a Clinton-free, Bush-free era in Washington politics.  Lacking that, deep-rooted change seems unlikely to me.

 

Speed Bathing

Reports out of Tokyo headline "Speed up bathing and save energy".  Whatever happened to "Save water, shower with a friend?"

 

Pre-Depression Car Sales

A student of the Great Depression might be aware that by the late summer of 1929, auto sales were off more than 20 percent.  It's in the books people use to prep for the SAT's, but I wonder how many people keep these kinds of books around?  Darn useful for quick study.

 

Once you gnaw though that page linked above, we can now go into the profile of the US auto industry's 'fixing to get ready' for whatever comes along this Fall...

 

Hummer Bummer: "The Hummer's Dead End?" asks the Washington Post.

Reality Bites: "At GM, a harsh dose of reality" headlines the Baltimore Sun.

Era Ending: "Gas-guzzler trucks, SUV's nearing end of the road" says the Arizona Republic.

 

Eco-Supercars?

A central Texas outfit is planning a 208-mile per hour ride that can get 40 MPG.  Only drawback is the price: $150K range.  This one goes on my shopping list along with the Tesla Roadster which boasts a 135 MPG equivalence and a screaming 0-60 in 3.9 seconds.  So far, though, only the Loremo looks affordable.  Around $28,000 US as a guesstimate...

 

Hungry for Answers

The UN says the cost of the food crisis is $20 billion per year. I don't suppose I need to go through my frequent rant about the audacity of companies patenting life, do I?  It's no different than me buying a couple of paint, mixing them up and patenting a color and then suing anyone using the same color.  Absurd, huh?

 

On the other hand, if any of the Frankenco's can actually brew up life from scratch in a sterile environment, monitored and documented by a disinterested/non related party, then by all means, patent away, LOL?  Otherwise, it's plagiarism in my book.

 

Worthy Read

Bounced Admiral William "The Fox" "Fallon breaks Silence on his Dissent".

 

Roger That, Roger

The occasional email from Roger Reynolds is always interesting.  You can get on his free list by dropping a line to randkreynolds@usa.net. But this morning's update from him is worthy of broader dissemination:

ALERT!!! ALERT!!! This is faster than I normally send out opinions, but something has happened.

 

1)Look at the chart of LEH, Lehman brothers. The last two days it has fallen below the Jan and march lows. Rumors have been around for a few weeks that they "cooked their books" for the latest quarterly report. The Last two days price drop may be confirming those rumors. Could LEH become another Bear Stearns???

 

2)Now look at the chart of BKX, the bank stock index. It has just broken down to a new five year low. The downside target from the descending triangle on the chart is to the low 50's. The triangle width of 22 subtracted from the bottom of 75. Joe Granville said many years ago, "Never fight the direction of the bank stock index." Could this lead to another market downleg???

 

3)Now look at the charts of Apple-AAPL, Google-GOOG, and Research in Motion-RIMM. These have been part of the "glamor" stock leadership for many months. To me, they all look like they have topped out for this market phase. RIMM has a reverse wave broadening top on the weekly chart AND divergence on RSI and MACD versus the latest peak price.

 

4)Oil prices have now completed a reverse wave broadening top. BUT, even though the oil price could fall, do not expect the gas price to fall very fast. WHY??? because the oil refiners have been losing money and they will resist lowering the gasoline prices until they get some reasonable profit margins back.

The linguistics guys are looking for another Big Bankruptcy, so things like this are worth taking note of.

 

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Coping: Off Label Uses

You know what an 'off-label' use is right?  It's a term common in medicine and describes the situation where a drug company comes out with a new medicine to fight one diseases or condition and gets it past (or passed by) the FDA, but where it also happens to work just dandy for something else that it hasn't been o9fficially approved for.

 

It's like around the house, everyone knows (except the kids, naturally) that soda water mixes well with Scotch, but not everyone knows that soda water works great to dilute and help get up a freshly spilled glass of red wine from the carpet; that kind of thing.

 

It struck me at about 2 AM today that we really ought to spend a little time in the 'snip & save' department collections "off label uses" for normal household things.

 

Why did this occur to me at 2 AM?  Well, Elaine thought she hear something.  No, none of the alarms had gone off, and the cat was out, so what was it?  It sounded to me like it could have been a cricket.

 

Bugs in east Texas, which is just as green as Washington State in the summertime, come in all kinds of sizes and shapes.  Despite having the house as well bug-proofed as we can, including a good does of cedar-oil repellants around the house, we still find bugs now and then.

 

So as Princess with Flashlight was searching for the source of the out-of-place noisy we heard, she discovered that the sticky-type mouse trap had failed to capture any rodents, but 8 or 9 crickets had been trapped.

 

"Cool!" I thought to myself, "I wonder if anyone has every collected all the off-label uses there are for household items?  Seems to me like it would be a highly useful little book."

 

This morning, the invitation goes out.  Send in your 'off label' uses.

 

Restriction On Travel

People coming to the US without a visa (not the credit card, you dolt! The travel document kind...) will soon have to give 72-hour notice.  Fortress America, anyone?

 

Urban Homesteading

Interesting article here.

 

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Around the Ranch: Keeping Posted

I had every intention of getting a couple of hours of fencing done yesterday and then turning my attention to the usual other demands of life: client work, yard work, the annual ham club meeting, and so forth.  But no, when Elaine and I got out to working on the fence, it was one of those projects that was too miserable to stop with the realization that with summer here and temps into the 90's, getting out and punching in fence posts and pulling fence just didn't seem like something either o f us wanted to do. 

 

With the 'Get it done now, will be worse later' mindset, we finished up the last 500' or so of fencing and last night turned the goats out into their new pasture.  Good thing, too.  A couple of them have come down with parasites, a common thing with goats and easily treated by Dr. Ure who is ready for anything including administering CDT shots and so forth.

 

If you ever get around to raising goats, remember that if the field they're in is too short, although it looks like a golf course, it has a higher risk of parasites.  You want to keep your browse about 2" or so in height and the highest risk time is right after a good rain...that's when parasites/bugs move up grass stems.  Some useful knowledge from a neighbor, that.  But worth sharing around.

 

My larger scale goat friends just rotate fields:  Four fields and three weeks in each works fine.  But, when you've only got two fields, that doesn't work so good.  So now we're at three fields and we should be able to get #4 put in this fall.  CDT meds won't be around forever, so we need to follow the rotation method sooner than later.

 

Today, with the really ugly chores done, I'll be nose-down and deskbound today.  The local high school kid working summer odd jobs will get to ride the riding mower and do the edging today while I grind my nose.

 

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Tuesday June 3, 2008

Controlled Landings

Most times, when we read about "landings" or "controlled descents" it has something to do with things aeronautical or economics.

 

A couple of examples:  An American Airlines jet makes an emergency landing in Texas when a passenger window breaks on Sunday, or the Mars lander Phoenix touches down and sends back data.  Or, on the economic side, China says it is not expecting a 'hard landing' risk from declining exports and Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson in the Middle East is working to avoid a hard (or crash) landing for the US economy by convincing at least one Dubai leader, sheikh Mohammed, to says "The Dollar Peg Will Stay..."

 

But, speaking of airlines, the CEO of Emirates Airlines, Time Clark, who I'd expect to have pretty good visibility on matters like oil prices, is reportedly says that oil will hit about $140 this year before leveling off...a departure from the street buzz of $200 oil this year.

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Nevertheless, when one looks at Wall Street lately, the buy and hold mantra which promoted the idea of just pouring money into a 401(k) program and blinding holding through thick and thin has certainly worn a bit thin.  And I don't mean with the market gyrations of Monday, particularly, although being down more than 200-points for a while can be a little disturbing for those who have voluntarily locked themselves in the wrong casino.

 

The thing I keep in mind is that in early 2000, the Dow hit a high of 11,723.  And if you click over to the Federal Reserves own calculator which does compound inflation calculations (which in non-banker terms shows how much the purchasing power of our money is being stolen by printing more money than the nation produces in added value), you can see that the Dow needs to be at 14,667.58 just have maintained purchasing power parity with 2000!.

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Whenever I write this inconvenient number down, people look at me like I have two heads.  Many start to stammer, turn red in the face, and begin flailing around for any kind of excuse to cover up for the miserable performance of Wall Street's well-oil sales machine.

 

"George, that doesn't count dividends or stock splits, so you can't say that!"  Oh, but I do.  And in most of the funds I've looked at the dividends and sp-lits about make up for the compound cost of the management fees of the funds.

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On the other hand, in 2001, I bought a small about of physical gold for $275 or so, when I saw this coming.   In order to just keep even with inflation gold needs only to hit $334.97 to equal the Dow...that is if the Dow could rally to 14,667.

 

The lesson of history here is pretty simple, isn't it?  Paper assets have lost purchasing power over the longer term (since 2000) when compared with the hard assets like gold and silver.  Don't forget we bought silver around $7 in 2005, and apprised you of the purchase in July or August of '05.  Based on our $7/ounce cost, silver needs only be at $7.72 to break even with inflation. 

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This buying physical assets is not just a long-term strategy.  Just for the heck of it, I entered the CNBC Million Dollar Challenge and threw together a 2-minutes portfolio of four precious metals stocks.  So far, it's up 7.9% and my game rank is 76,587.  Just holding cash (which I did in a second account for benchmarking purposes) has a rank going into today's open of 411,714.

 

Awesome!  See how nicely 'simple single decisions' can work out?  I jump ahead of 335,127 other portfolios with a simple four stock PM portfolio and simply watch money dynamics move me up.  Why people don't get it is just beyond me.

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My point?  What's my Point?

 

We're living in an age where a huge 'transformation' is shaping up that will fully impact our lives in 2009 and beyond.  One of the hallmarks of that change will be the shift away from aper and into real assets and things that can produce local value. 

 

The really smart people I know are starting to localize, socialize, and demonetize.  In two words: "Get local!".

 

Stories about 'new survivalists' are starting to pop up all over.  And here's a story on the SF Gate web site (San Francisco Chronicle) headlines "From One Rat to Antoher:  How one man went from living the urban rat race to living like a desert rat." 

 

I've been writing about voluntary Deconsumption and voluntary downsizing of lifestyles for years now, I suppose to the distain of former colleagues in the six-figure world who thought (think?) I'm nuts.  That may be, and all, but life's just a slightly longer version of the CNBC game:  Make make a couple of  fundamental good decisions to get in harmony with the general direction of the times and then ride the elevator stress-free.
 

Fine Times in the Nanny State

There's a law now in Massachusetts that requires people to have health insurance.  In the People's Republic of Massachusetts, people without health care insurance are being fined - in fact so much so that $9.7 million in fines have been imposed according to one report.

 

So, besides being a bonanza for bureaucrats and inspiration for insurance companies, does it help?  A quote:

"Despite the increase in the ranks of the insured, the study found little effect on the use of emergency rooms for non-emergency care. And the fear that employers would begin dropping health coverage as the new law took effect hasn't happened. "

Oh, and look here: The costs of the program in Massachusetts are quickly creeping up on the billion dollar level. 

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I've asked this before, but it's worth asking again:  Did we really defeat communism in m'89 when the wall came down?  Between mandatory insurance plans like the Massachusetts law and the super bureaucracies (like Homeland Security/TSA et al) plus all the 'paper's please?', Real ID Act,. and plans for a mandatory national DNA database, I seriously wonder who really won the Cold war!  Not convinced?  Try on this next story, then...

 

Papers Please?  Roadcheck 2008

Something called Roadcheck 2008 is underway today through Thursday.  It's when police and law enforcement all over the country have their annual "Pull 'em Over" festival looking for trouble with commercial vehicles.  However, if you sit on your seatbelt, you might want to at least try to get in the habit of wearing it.

 

Most of the coverage makes it sound benign enough:  Talk about safety and such.

 

Again, the emphasis will be on commercial vehicles, and with vehicles coming in from Mexico, I would be curious how those foreign rigs fare, compared to domestics, but I expect we'll never find out.

 

But, in the meantime, being sensitive to the meme "restrictions on travel" I'm suspicious of the well-publicized Roadcheck operation.  You and I both know that the seriously unsafe rigs will probably just park for three days while the big crackdown is going on and they'll likely be back on the road as soon as the emphasis work is over, and all the folks who take part are catching up on their comp time over the next couple of weeks.

 

If you get pulled over, send along a report.  Just curious how invasive this is - especially if you're not in a commercial rig.

 

Don't Know Squat...

But, in the event you don't a trip to the UK, where "Squatters taught to pick locks by council leaflet" might be in order.  Or, you can just 'squat American style' - smash the locks, rip out the appliances and hock the copper....

 

Buy One, Get One Free

Oh, don't think there's a housing crisis?  How abxout the developer in Escondido who's selling houses "Buy one, get one free"?

 

The Runs: Mac & Hil?

The headline "McCain lavishes praise on Hillary, says she's inspired American women..."  But inspired them to what isn't clear to me.  Nevertheless, here's the ultimate corpgov put-up nominee spin move:  have McCain pick Hil as his running mate.  No, I will bite my tongue and won't say how that could fool people who were only half-stupid.  See?  My tongues bleeding from biting it...  That would sure as hell lead to the expected calls for an early election...

 

Turnabout is Fair Play Department

Even though everyone who has studied the situation figures Israel has between 250 and 350 nuclear warheads of its own, so far, they have managed to avoid the same kind of international inspections that are coming to Iran and Syria.  But wait!  "Syria says Israel should face nuclear checks" too, says a report.  And why not?  International law should be evenly applied, I reckon.

 

I can hardly wait to see how selective enforcement of international nuclear inspections could be justified... I figure Russia, China, the U.S. - everyone ought to be inspected - no exceptions.

 

Loo Loo of a Problem

A problem with the international space station's plumbing could close down the missing.  I guess this means the sh*t is flying somewhere today...

 

Don't Tell Jiminy

Eating crickets could be good for us, little fellow.  Now just put down that umbrella and stop singing...

 

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Coping: Dry Up

While this week's discussion of wood stoves is good, a reader sends along a reminder:

"George - with regard to your mention of installing an air tight stove at your place this year, my advice (just in case you are not yet aware) is to MAKE SURE the wood you burn is as dry (seasoned) as possible. In an air-tight stove burning "green" wood causes large quantities of creosote to get deposited inside the stove pipe and or chimney, because air-tights smoulder a lot, producing lots of smoke, whereby, non-air tights burn hotter and more with a "flame".

When this happens you run the risk of chimney fires happening at the worst possible time (I can tell you that from my own experiences burning wood over past 30 plus years up here in northern Vermont. When we first moved here, we had 2 of them, before I learned the lesson and they are "scary".

In an air-tight stove - the drier the wood, the better....

And if you're working around a wood pile in a snake prone area, remember to keep an eye open for snakes - they love the wood piles and already our neighbor has killed one copperhead in their woodpile this year.
 

Attention Cheaters

Say, here's a site that sounds like a textbook on "How to Monetize Anything on the Net"

Cheat Neutral is taken from "carbon credit" trading. At the site you can pay someone to be be faithful so you can cheat on your husband, wife or significant other. You offset your cheating by buying "cheating credits". Someone else stays faithful so that you don't have to.

http://www.cheatneutral.com/

Could be big money in this if it spreads to the corporate world...

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Around the Ranch: Fencing Lessons

Ah, this morning's report is a lot shorter than usual - what gives?  Elaine and I are putting in fencing.  The only time one can work outside in East Texas with any amount of comfort or hustle is before noon.  so, all consulting, phone answering, new subscriber set-ujp and etc is put off till afternoon when I will be so thankful to be in my air conditioned office, the joy of desk work ought to be overwhelming.  Already 76 degrees and on the humid side.  Time to cowboy up and git 'er done on the latest 900 foot fence line.

 

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Monday June 2, 2008

Summertime, "...and the living is easy..."  Is Missing

There's this song from Porgie and Bess that starts to running through my mind at this time of year - "Summertime - and the living is easy..." Or, at least so it seemed to the great composer George Gershwin a/k/a/ Jacob Gershowitz.  BTW, the only other song which has had this many cover versions made of it is the Beatle's "Yesterday".

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While it could be argued that 'offishully' summertime won't begin till June 20th of June this year, about 7:00 PM Central, although one could be picky and call the solstice this year for 6:59 Central - I've seen it both ways.

 

The HPH folks that study language, looking for shifts of word choice that are highly correlated to future events, like me, consider summer to be the period between Memorial Day and Labor Day, as that's how it works out for vacation planners.  That is, if you still have a job and if you still have benefits...

 

To be sure, there are other indicators of summer's arrival.  One indicator is Jefferson Davis' birthday tomorrow - you remember he was the president of the Confederate States of America - the bicentennial of his birth being June 3.  Even in the South, reviews of the event vary.  Alabama is taking the day off tomorrow as an official state holiday.  Just 80 miles, or so, further north latitude, the OpEd page in Winston-Salem North Carolina headlines "Jefferson Davis' delusional nature not unique to his day".

 

Depending on whether you ask a Northerner, or a Southerner, Davis' birthday this week still brings up debate over what the War Between the States was about.  In the North, it was over slavery.  In the South, other issues too, including State's Rights and limiting the role of federal government.  What's the old saying?  I think Alex Haley nailed it: "History is written by the winners."  In Florida, the world's biggest Confederate flag unveiling is set for next year.

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The start of Summer (at least unofficially) brings with it the start of many things including the Hurricane season.  A debate continues into this week about whether the annual outlook for the season has any value.  Personally, I think it does, as it should remind people about the potential risk of holding insurance company stocks.

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Elaine and I spent a couple of not-yet hot mornings this weekend putting up about 400 feet of goat fencing here at the ranch.  500 feet to go... While the maximum wind through the tall pines of East Texas was maybe 5-knots down at ground level, to the north there was more tornado activity over the weekend, with many cities still picking up the pieces.  No "...and the living is easy...' in that region.

 

A correspondent in Oklahoma advises:

"Hi Clif & George,

Not tornados, but winds that were like an EF0 tornado/category 1 hurricane hit the same places 2 days in a row in NE OK. 44K without power ( http://www.newson6.com/global/story.asp?s=8408691   ) & 29 schools/summer schools cancelled today (not exactly a snow day).

Looks a bit like Ice Storm-The Sequel; of course without the ice! Hundreds to thousands of tree limbs down & whole uprooted trees. Lots of golf-ball sized hail (several inches deep in places) & some reports of soft-ball sized hail. We only had pea-sized hail. The Sunday storm dropped 1.5 inches of rain in 20 minutes in my rain gauge."

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Nor does the weather map this morning indicate any national outbreak of 'easy living'; red flag warnings are up in northern Arizona, about half of New Mexico, and into northwestern Texas.  Dry winds are back and brining fire danger with them.

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Nor was there 'easy living' in evidence around the gas pumps, although folks in Europe seem amazed that Americans are griping about $4 pump prices."

 

Me?  I'm still waiting for the ultra high mileage Loremo sports diesel to start coming off the assembly lines in 2010  The idea of 80+ MPG sounds pretty good.

 

Especially when headlines tell us that "Oil price supernova spurs search for alternatives."  And, making matters more interesting are references to a probe of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.  No easy living around there, I'd wager.

 

Word from the NY Post's John Crudele, in a recent dispatch from Helena has it that "Montana Governor is Sitting on an Oil Mine" -- revealing there may be 40-billion  barrels of crude under eastern Montana and part of North Dakota.  While that's not going to be turned on overnight, it could mean $800 barrel oil won't happen unless banksters really get carried away with compound debt.  Like they haven't already. 

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Looking ahead for the week, the economic calendar has a couple of items on it that the number-crunchers and quants ought to have a field day with.  Factory orders and car sales tomorrow, but Friday will be the 'biggie' with the unemployment rate (always a knee slapper, to see how wide the gap is between local reality and the 'national average') and the misnamed by the banksters Consumer Credit report, which as we all know is really the Consumer Debt report...it's just the bankers look at things from their side of the ledger where it's a credit to them -- but on your side of the ledger it's a debt. 

 

WSJ says GM's market share could slide under 20% if sales weren't up to snuff .  Chant along here: "As goes GM, so goes the market..."

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As of Friday (after trading) it was looking like absolutely no chance of another Fed rate cut was being priced into the June Fed meeting, so if you're looking for 'living to get easy', I wouldn't be expecting lower interest rates any time soon.  I don't know a single person who has had their  credit card rates actually decrease, even though the Fed has been handing out money to the banksters left and right.  And, the number of home loans actually closing seems to have come up lame as well.  Quick!  Look surprised!

 

Meantime, the bankster class is borrowing oodles more paper...$50-billion worth.

 

Iran Watch

Three items to watch here:  "Iran orders suspension of news agency", the "IAEA demands 'full disclosure' from Iran, sends team to Syria", and in the midst of this, "US Strategy to stop Iran Atomic Work Is Failing, Analyst says..."  No, really? 

 

CNN ,reports Syria has agree to the IAEA visit...

 

Pakistan Watch

An attack in Pakistan has killed four people - car bomb outside the Danish embassy.  With all the furor over cartoons of the Prophet in the Danish press, figuring this to be the work of Muslim extremists is a logical enough conclusion...

 

The Runs:  That Winning Loser

Hillary won in Puerto Rico.  Say, did they use voting machines?

 

Outlook Guarded

Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson says "End to Market Turmoil Will Take Months".   I would have said years, but  no one listens to me...

 

HAARP'ing on China

While speculation continues to run rampant on the net about whether HAARP was used to induce the recent earthquake in China, some folks are pointing to radar anomalies in the region as proof.

 

I've suggested that the speculation could be easily laid to rest if HAARP would release date and directional antenna headings to the public as they have little military value, but would certainly quell debate.  So far no word back, but if I hear anything, I'll post it...

 

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Coping: Currency Affairs

Oh sure, plenty of speculation about a new North American currency to be called the Amero0 is floating around the 'net.  But a hawk-eyed reader noticed that a couple of currencies are starting to 'line up' with the dollar:

"Here’s an odd thing, probably nothing – I’ve been watching the Canadian Dollar, the Australian dollar, and the Mexican peso for a year or two. Actually, I’d check the Looney and just glance at the others.

The Canadian dollar hit parity a while back and has kind of hung there; went below, came back. The Australian Dollar keeps edging closer, slowly. Even the peso seems to be lining up, a decimal place off.

Like I said, probably nothing. The Looney will likely keep gaining by the time the Australian dollar hits parity. But it’s food for thought.

CD .995

AD 1.049

MP 10.328"

Downscaling Goes Hip

Yup.  We're just a couple of years ahead of the hip, it seems, by voluntarily downsizing.  Check out this report out of the Bay area on how young people are choosing to live in places like underpasses...

 

Home camp is growing in Reno...

 

Wood Fired Heat

Seems like this is about the time of year to be thinking abouit next winter's heat bills.  Some comments on wood-fired heat from a reader:

"George, Three years ago I purchased a Hardy Wood Furnace. The nice thing about these is that it is made of Stainless Steel and sits outside the house. No more having to carry wood inside and deal with all the mess. Water from your cold line circulates through the furnace and is heated then that hot water goes through a heat exchanger which heats the return air coming from my air conditioning unit. That air is heated and blows out the vents in each room. The thermostat can be set in the house to any temperature (wife likes it around 73) your burning wood not oil. Another feature is that there is a second line from the cold water that circulates through another coil in the furnace and returns to my hot water heater. A never ending supply of hot water. In the summer the electric kicks on for the hot water.

Living on a farm you may find this as something of interest. The unit can be set up for any type of heat you have. I load it twice a day (morning and evening).

My house is about 2000 sq. ft. so I am able to get by with their smaller unit. The initial cost for the furnace was about $4300 with and additional $1800 for labor and materials for installation (you could do the installing yourself). Prior to the rise in oil costs my gas heat bill was running about $1500 to $1800 per year. This makes the pay back 3-4 years. I start my 4th winter this year and with what I would expect would be much higher gas heating bills this winter….I am in the green."

We've got plans here at the ranch to put in a small air-tight stove this fall.  With the hardwoods downed by our mini-tornado earlier this year, a figure we've got several years worth of fuel without doing anything more than cutting and splitting.  Did I say nothing more than? Am I nuts?  When was the last time you bucked a Texas tall oak?

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