Replaying 1929: Business, Financial, and earth change news

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Reader Note:  No Saturday free report this week, still a zillion projects here at the ranch.  Peoplenomics this week will deal with putting in a solar system; how to design and build your own.  Next planned update of this site will be Monday morning.

 

Update:  About that "October" Report...

Terror inside America within 90 days? The report on the HL Camp & Company (Program Trading Research) web site Thursday (which had been here) has disappeared... and it may have may have been based on a 2005 report that  there was '90 days at most' before an attack-- attributed to  Juval Aviv who was an Israeli Mossad agent.  Snopes/legend entry.

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Although the Aviv report may be spurious, reports out of Georgia and Pakistan are not.  So it seems significant in that what happens in the roughly 4-5 months between now and Spring '09 could have an emotional release component of many times the magnitude of 9/11.  For example, there's a report this week suggesting that the U.S. is beefing up forces in the region and may not appreciate the scope of the Iranian biowarfare capability.

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I continue to surf the headlines out of Pakistan, as well,  as a possible precursor to something large occurring here.  It seems while the Pakistan army is off fighting militants in the northwest part of that country, the management layer of the Army is trying to figure out how to give president Musharraf the boot.  Maybe I'm the only guy to remember that Pakistan has nukes? Have had since 1974. with a big spurt of testing firings in 1998 of anywhere from 4 KT on the low side to as much as 38 KT on the high..  As a point of reference, Hiroshima, Japan was officially 15 KT but may have pushed 20.  Hard telling, as air bursts do more damage than low level.

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Terrorism and the "Bounded Thinking" Problem

Reading all these reports, the rehashed Aviv report, or the news from Georgia, Pakistan, and elsewhere, there's a fine example of something called a 'lexical gap'.  If you pop open your copy of "Linguistics, an Introduction" (Radford, Atkinson, Britain, Clahsen, and Spencer) to page 195, we can discover how the gaps in our thinking are the result of gaps in our language.

"(151) think, believe, hope, wish, know, realize

 

These verbs (and the sect could be extended) are known as propositional attitude verbs, i.e. the are all used to express something about the nature of the attitude of someone to a particular proposition, and the fact that they are labeled in this way indicates that they are perceive as having something in common semantically.  however, there is no verb in English which qualifies as a superordinate for members of this class.  In this circumstances, there is a lexical gap and if we wished to represent the fact that the verbs in (151) do form a natural set, we could do so using (152) where Ф indicates the position of the gap..."

Since the coffee hasn't sunk in yet to the point where I feel like fighting with the scanner to put in their diagram, I'll just substitute X instead of Ф (one of Inspiration's few shortcomings is the slight linguistic mismatch with Microsoft's language conventions, where Microsoft uses the word 'symbol' referring to the extended ASCII instruction set, while Inspiration uses the word "symbol" to refer to a graphic element such as a text box, text bubble, or something along those lines.  Just being aware of the definitional differences between software makers makes learning a new piece of software a snap. 

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A kid, brought up on Inspiration, might think a 'symbol' to be a textbox or text cloud, but in Microsoftese, these are "shapes', 'clipart', or 'SmartArt'. You see the problem, right?  A user has to maintain their own lexicon for each software package.  Most people aren't really conscious of how this works, but what I've observed (working on a MSFT Gold Partner ERP product at one point) is that ease of product learning is best facilitated by adhering strictly to the most common product lexicon available.  In mass computing, that'd be the Microsoft lexicon. 

 

Hint: If you want to learn Corel or Adobe product, it's all a 'snap' if you conscious figure out that terms like "auto-position", "snap-to-grid" and "align objects" can all do the same thing. I'm not especially 'smart' about learning dozens of applications fluently, however I do use a linguistic approach up front to try and discern how a need application works. Your computing lexicon depends which software product you've got loaded...

 

But let's not get off into the linguistic weeds except to note that someone might ask Inspiration's designers to handle use of symbols (as in extended ASCII characters) in their text boxes, which might be better called 'shapes' or 'graphics'.  Now let's get out of the weeds and back on point...

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Back to the Bounded Thinking problem: Here's how there's a 'missing word' in English which would tie together the broad range of  terms in (151) above:

On the other hand, if we were to line up a bunch of nearly polar opposites to these words, we discover that a word like "denial" is a possible superordinate for the set:

 

 

I'm pointing out the subtle differences in language like this, so you can appreciate the problem of those defending the country who spend day and night analyzing 'intelligence' information, such as the reports of Juval Aviv's warning about a pending 'terrorism' event.

 

I'd be willing to be dollars to donuts (doughnuts, then) that nowhere in all the bazillions of dollars we have spent fighting terrorism (so far) has anyone stepped back and considered this "You are what youi think problem."  If they had, I expect that there would be a lot of emphasis on development of new words/concepts because, as noted above, the lack of a superordinate for believe, think, hope, wish, know, and realize represents a strategic intelligence blind spot.

 

This is not to say that language use represents a new order of warfare.  Quite the contrary, as Fourth Generation Warfare (4GW) 'inventor' William S. Lind notes, "From what I have seen thus far, honest attempts to discover a Fifth Generation suggest that their authors have not fully grasped the vast change embodied in the Fourth Generation."  Exactly so.

 

What we're left pondering, as the Aviv report is considered, is how the lexical gap in America between those who are in 'denial' about certain uncomfortable facts and the other side, which lacks as clear a label, might in and of itself be exploited at a 4GW level by both enemies within - and from outside - the Nation.

 

When I start reading how DoD or DHS is getting serious about identifying lexical gaps, I'll sleep a lot better.  Till then, I fear we've got a certain kind of blindness which only a few, such as Lt. Gen. Paul Van Riper in Operation Millennium Challenge 2002, have effectively grasped.

 

But don't let this kind of thinking spoil your day - let's put that superordinate for which we do

have a word to work!  (Denial! )

 

2009: Year of "Transformation"

I've been a fan of retired UW Business Prof. Emeritus Jack Lessinger for years (Schizomania, Penturbia, the Fifth Urban Migration) and all.  Remembering that the web bot team has given 2009 the word "transformation"  guess what the title of Lessinger's newest book is?

 

Click here for a hint.  The book's page is here:

 

Inflated Household Debt

As promised, the Fed released its Consumer Debt report on Thursday - and according to the latest numbers, Americans are going into hock to the tune of 6.7% annually. 

 I thought this would be a difficult one for my deflationist pal Jas Jain to cope with, but no...

"Hello George,

The Total Household Debt as a % of GDP peaked during 2007Q4-2008Q2 (Q2 Flow of Funds data will confirm this, IMO) around 98.6-98.7%. That is up from 75% in 2001 and below 50% prior to 1985. But for the MEW (mortgage equity withdrawal) the US economy would be in depression since 2001. As far as households are concerned the Peak Debt is past. Bankrupters and Fraudsters have done their dirty deed. And who are all surprised?!"

To be sure, there are still contradictory signs about which way the economy will break - either toward hyperinflation or massive deflation.

 

This morning, for example, we see that oil is still going down on a surprisingly strong dollar.  And this is something that doesn't come as a surprise, since I'm fishing cheap silver options for December at the moment:  "Gold declines to eight-week low in Asia on Dollar's strength" says Bloomberg.

 

If the PowersThatBe really had advance warning of a terrorist attack on America, you think the price of gold and silver might be driven down to give insiders a chance to make a bundle?  What did ever happen with those put options that were put on in the days ahead of 9/11, anyway?

 

Landry: Down, then Up

If you think the market might take a nose-dive in here and then come roaring back - that's pretty much what Robin Landry's latest client letter gets to:

"Ever since the market bottomed on July 15th I have been besieged with questions as to what I think is the count now. I have spent considerable time looking at the Dow and now believe my count was wrong as presented in the last chart. Instead of wave three ending at the Oct 2007 high, it was an extended 5th wave. That was always an option but because one of my indications I use to confirm the count was exactly equal at both the third and fifth wave momentum peaks, I chose to interpret it as the more aggressive count. That was the first time in 34 years I had faced that dilemma. I was wrong.

The decline from the high, in the Dow best counts as and abc(A) into the low on 1/21/8 on the weekly chart with the high on 5/19/08 being the (B) wave top. We are currently in the (C) wave down, which is not yet complete. I believe we are in a small 4th wave which is about done, as I write this, and we will decline in a 5th wave to the area between 9700 and 10500 to complete the (C) of the larger {A}. The range between 9700 and 10500 is also the the range of the 4th wave of the rally from the 2002 low. A typical EW support area. The semantics used in the media as to Bull and Bear market levels are of little use. The point I believe to take away from this update is this. The decline is not over. Even if the more bearish counts of some of the other EW technicians is correct, the short term moves are in sync and caution is warranted. The next couple weeks should be exciting and clear up the count. If I am correct, we will then have a nice {B} rally lasting several months. Surge AHOY!!!"

How to play this is a difficult decision (you're on your own here) because Landry's view and the linguistics for the fall, seem at odds if I read 'em right.  But I sure wouldn't be long the market at the moment, if I were silly enough to be playing options in this climate.

 

One of the surest signs the rally is about over is when long-time bears start changing sides, like the venerable Joe Granville did this week.

 

Losing Their Fannie

What's a loss of $2.3 billion, anyway?  Go what Mae....

 

Gold and Green

NBC has bagged over $1 billion on Olympics revenue so far.

 

Police State Adventures

A curious Baltimore Sun story about the Mayor of Berwyn Heights (MD) having his home raided by police.

 

Boone's Boom?

There may be a darker side to the Boone Pickens promotion of wind power lately as this article points out.

 

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Coping: Where to Live?

A number of readers have been wondering where would be the best plac ein America to live, if you could live anywhere you wanted?  The question comes up as people are getting fired, foreclosed, and a change to move comes up (like it or not in many cases).  So readers have ideas like these...

It would have to be Bozeman, MT. Their are so many wealthy people moving in from all the over place to bumf**k Montana. It's hard to believe but I guess I can't be too hard headed because I moved here myself. Besides, Bozeman is just approx 40 minutes away from Big Sky. Where I have heard rumours that Bill Gates has three houses.

One question for you, do you ever get hacked (website wise) because of the material you write about?

Yeah, there are plenty of attempts, but my ISP is very secure compared to the run of the mill and even the FTP requires encryption (unlike many).  And, worst case, keep www.independencejournal.com bookmarked because it mirrors this site every morning. It's in a different geographical location and thus, should be a robust back-up.

Back to the 'where to live' question...

"George, there is no place in the USA I would move to.

Anyone would have laughed if I said that I would end up living in Czechoslovakia. And if anyone told me back in 1988 that I would be living here, I would pack him off to a mental hospital.

Yet I have been here for about a year and maybe am getting ½ to human, as Czech does not use “half past” but “half to” when telling time."

And...

"Fires and earthquakes along the pacific, floods and tornados in the Midwest, drought in the Southeast, and the high price of land and the snows of the Northeast and DC, not to mention the possibility of coastal flooding along the Eastern Seaboard anytime between August and November due to hurricane season? I don’t know of anywhere that is safe.

Although, moving to FantasyLand is always an idea. It seems to be working for everyone in charge. "

And here's some good advice...

"George,

Other than researching the Free State Project and moving there, or moving to Switzerland, if you want to move off-grid to a self-sustaining environment, here's a simple way to research the best area in your region:

1. Go to local public libraries/historical societies. 2. Identify the counties in your state and/or neighboring states where 18-19th century German immigrants settled. 3. Drive around that area--it will be the prettiest part of the state, and will probably have running water as well as aquifers, hardwood trees, land suitable for farming and grazing, land suitable for vineyards, and defendable hills. 4. Start looking for property you can buy that includes the necessities above. 5. Move there.

It seems that no matter what state I've been in--Alabama, Pennsylvania, New York, Missouri, etc--the German-settled areas are always the best. BTW, I'm not German, I'm pure Irish. This is just an observation."

And if you live in the Windy City:

"George...

Water and available farm land are in no short supply around here. We are in a little college town sitting on Lake Michigan. It is 160 miles north of Chicago on the West coast of Lake Michigan....Holland, Michigan. We have a viable commercial "port"....Lake Macatawa enters directly onto Lake Michigan. We have giant sand dunes 50 miles north and south of us with dense hardwood forest everywhere. We are 40 miles from Grand Rapids and those 40 miles are filled with successful farms. Blueberry "plantations"( as they are called up here), apples, cherries, peaches, vineyards close to the lake.....corn, soy, livestock etc everywhere else. This is a disciplined old world Dutch community. Everyone hunts and fishes and the eat what they catch. Lots of salmon in these waters. Not Oregon standards but it is not farm raised. By definition Holland is a vacation spot but the college of 3500 students (Hope College) lends a nice permanence to the town. The local hospital ranks in the top 100 hospitals of ANY size in the entire US. The wealthy Dutch industrialists have made this their hobby horse. It's spot clean and without much debt. The Dutch handle their money quite shrewdly. So, there it is. Water, good land, self-sufficiency, deep pockets, a little culture, good hospitals, a good port, our own coal power plant, a well armed, capable and civil population. That's my choice!!"

I don't think I have mentioned this for a while, but about 2-years back remember how I was agonizing over whether to pop $29K for a 16 acre parcel of land adjacent to our original 13 acres?  Well, a little 12.81 acre piece came up for sale down the road from us about a mile.  This is a triangle-shaped piece of land, some view, and county road on three sides of it.

So I called Southland Realty here in the Palestine area, which has the listing and said "How much?"  Turns out the woman who owns it is asking $57,000!.  Considering that we paid $29K for 16-acres two years ago, and ours has a creek on it, and we took $14K of timber off of it and still have lots of trees left, I'm feeling like a genius.  Deflation?  Where?

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Send snip and save comments to george@ure.net

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Peoplenomics.com 

The Trouble with UFO's

There has been a large and easily discernable movement by governments worldwide to slowly take the covers off the UFO story, which was jumped into public consciousness with two events of the late 1940's; the Kenneth Arnold sighting near Mount Rainier in Washington state on June 24, 1947, and by the purported discovery of an semi-intact UFO near Roswell, New Mexico July 7, 1947.  What's curious to us this week is not the temporally adjacent 'discovery' of the transistor 5-months later on November 17, 1947, or the purportedly managed release of reverse-engineered technology as outlined in Philip Corso's book "The Day After Roswell" which ascribed lasers, integrated circuits, Kevlar (and much more) to a technology 'slow release' program, but rather the broader question of what would happen if truly revolutionary technology were unleashed on humans in a large-scale way. Stated in more clinical terms: How much technology can the world handle without inducing anarchy?

 

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