---

Published Monday through Friday about 8 AM Central Time Except Holidays

 

This site is supported by subscription to Peoplenomics.  For additional content, please subscribe.

 

Ahead:  Things We Don't Like to Talk About

There's a quite a gap between Chief Time Monk Cliff and me.  He's the genius/recluse/SQL-guru and my role in all of this has been mostly on the interp/big picture kind of stuff.  On major policy issues we bounce things around.

 

Come to think of it, most of how we approach life is pretty 'different' too.  This weekend's Part Five of the ALTA series from www.halfpasthuman.com will be delayed until late today because Cliff has a chance to do an all-day Aikido meditation with visiting Masters from Japan.  Martial arts and pie being his forte.   As a comparison, I took Elaine and our house guests over to Nacogdoches, Texas on Friday - playing hooky from work for a half day to observe the female species wrestling with shopping disease in antique stores, watch a little sheep judging at the Nacogdoches Piney Woods County Fair, sample a double order of chicken fried steak at locally famous Butcher Boy's, and discover an area near Neches, Texas called "Peckerwood Hill" in our cruise about.

 

Despite these lifestyle differences, on most matters of 'policy' related to the web bot project we agree.  One example is the conclusion that we haven't found anyone we'd trust the technology to.  Being able to see the future even vaguely presents some serious moral and ethical problems.  We looked at the problems that the atomic bomb has brought with it and wondered whether the technology, even in its fledgling state, wouldn't be used for political/social-engineering purposes, which was not the intent of the work.

 

I think that's where the 'time monk' moniker arose from:  If I count my commodity option wins and losses, plus the money made in the past couple of weeks on the S&P decline buying puts, I'm not back to even yet.  Admittedly, after running the commodity account up to nearly $40,000 (from a $1,000 stake) I thought "How cool is this?"  However, since this is all a big science fair project for us, I was also able to fritter all that away; no biggie though, after all it's only paper, right?

 

However, that gets us to one of the hardest/most 'rum for George/Pies for Cliff & Igor kinds of issues:  How would we handle something very specific if it popped up in modelspace?  An example of the dilemma popped out of an email from Cliff last Saturday (October 4).  Since the events bespoke in the email are now passing by in headlines, disclosure here of just one sentence of in-house isn't a time warping/future-jacking move:

"...the [***bank name deleted, event still pending - G*] and the [world bank] are about to go down, and one of these two will be [looted] not of money as it don't got none... "

Needless to say, the interp(retation) may have been wide of the mark, or not, as events will shortly reveal now that the story has crossed the preconscious border, but it's this kind of thing that we specifically don't put out in advance so as to remain "clean" with the data.  That said, it's almost a non-event for us when headlines started crossing that "World Bank Besieged by Hackers, Or Not:  According to a media report, the World Bank has experience at least six major intrusions, two from the same IP address in China, since the summer of 2007."

 

Occasionally, things pop up in modelspace that are possible interpretations and Cliff will go into one of his SQL fugues, debating what's "right" to talk about in advance.  Even with a spotty record of success over the past eight years, the reason why Nostradamus and other seers often couch their language in metaphorical terms becomes clear.  The main danger from looking into the future is getting it all too right.

 

The borderline decisions are the hard ones.  Deciding not to mention a specific bank event is a pretty simple call.  News executives don't generally report bomb scares because they can actually cause more bomb scares; in much the same way the mere mention of bank runs sets people on edge and logging into their accounts.  We shy away from such huge responsibilities.

 

The 'general public safety' calls are pretty easy, too: "Warning - flee paper assets!" has been sound advice for quite some time.  December 10 - earthquake here. That kind of thing.

 

When the outcome makes headlines, but it's high profile and everyone lives, no problem.  Example here being the 3/4 day lead on the high profile motorcycle/traffic accident with the athletes at the Greece Olympics back when.

 

It's the closer calls - where we ponder "right action".  A reference to something as vague/obscure as "10XCSN" may not make sense now, but give it a month and if it's anything more than a data bulge, I'll explain. 

 

Promise.

 

Guesting Game

Don't spend too much time pondering that one...a much more immediate set of values should be arriving this weekend as outlined in yesterday's report.  (Reference: "This weekend: 3 Unwelcome Guests").  A sharp-eyed reader in Germany is piecing it together this way:

"Hi George,

Cliff's accuracy is amazing! Not only did he predict correctly the current financial crash, but also his prediction of the three unwanted guests is on the spot - at least for one "guest".

He spoke of "an ['accident' (real or claimed)] which causes a [derailing]. This last may be in the political realm."

Well, this morning we are told that Jörg Haider, a controversial Austrian politician famous far beyond Austria for his outspoken, right wing statements, died last night in a car accident(?).

He was found by a driver he had passed on his way home. Police says his car had derailed off the street for unknown reasons, catapulted down a slope, smashed into a low concrete wall, and turned once over. He died from heavy injuries to his head and chest, in spite of his safety belt.

He had again had considerable success at the Austrian parliament elections in September, and just two weeks ago had said in a widely broadcasted TV interview that the banking mafia has to be abolished, because they sell toxic financial products to the unsuspecting people.

There are many (not right wing) people here who don't believe this was an accident.

newswires: ("Police say Austrian rightist Haider dead at 58")  (Video - im Deutsche) (Jörg Haider Banken Mafia, approximately Jörg Haider on the Banking Mafia - G)

Now I am waiting for the other two guests...

Banking Holiday - Fears for Tiers, Nationalize quick!

The one [bank holiday] coming Monday for Columbus Day (list for future reference) may not be the only one in the near-term.  We're already seeing folks like Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi says that there may need to be an international banking holiday while the globe meets to sort out its financial mess. Hints that way from G-7 maybe Sunday?

---

Linguistically, this is starting to look like a high probability event, but here's the thing to be aware of:  Apparently, whatever the policy moves are, they have huge unimagined/unintended consequences.  If it happens, the read would be "works for a short time, but fails on reopening, and then a sequential start-up in tried, and that goes rather poorly, too, making a messier mess of things.

---

Fears for Tiers?  All of this gets me to thinking back on the various stories we've run where the concept of a two-tired U.S. currency has come up.  Specifically, I'm still intrigued with the "red backs" rumor that floated around the 'net back in 2006.  (Link to story, scroll about halfway down)

---

National Banks of Paulson:  Hank Paulson is in the "Hurry up and spend" mode claiming a need to purchase bank equity "As soon as we can..."  Easily said with our money, huh?  Paulson National? 

 

Am I the only one to read about Jackson and the Second National Bank?  This is like a twisted sister screenplay/rewrite to fit the times with banker's rhymes...hide the crimes inside the dimes...clean wallets with inflation's tines.. and ignore the People, these crooked slimes.  I'm just saying...

 

Business Failures Loom

An interesting note was passed on by The Bond Dude while I was out playing Friday.  He said that there are about $365 billion in Lehman CDS settlement payments due next week.  While the industry figures no one will go broke making the payment, there may be some back-end grief. 

 

The reason?  Companies are anteing up to pay their swaps, OK, but that may push through the accounting departments and mean things like rents, lease payments, and what have you (accounts payable in general) could be pushed back come month end.  And that will ripple and that rolls the big economic snowball faster down the slope unrecognized yet in MSM.

 

Gold & Markets

A number of people have asked me "What caused the $62 drop in gold on Friday?"  My taking time off?  No...seriously...it was likely panic selling to raise cash for CDS debts and other liquidity requirements such as money market redemptions and so forth.

 

At the same time, there's some indication in futures prices that gold should be firming soon, - with some talk of $1,200 by year end.  No, we're not selling any yellow dog or 'green monsters' yet.

---

The NY Post's Paul Tharp reports the decline from the stock market top may reach 50% .  Optimistic, I'd judge, but hey, be fine if it's only that bad. 

 

Rationing Meme

Cuba, suffering major impacts from Hurricanes Gustav and Ike, has started food rationing.  View this as precursor or leading edge to the rationing meme which may go global by year-end.

 

The Runs: Legal But Abused

Sarah Palin is off the hook on her abuse of power probe in Alaska; at least legally what she did wasn't criminal.  So, she wants to be the new Dick Cheney, huh?  Wonder if her aim is any better?

 

Hide The Sausage Department

Good analysis: "Iraq War fades from U.S. election."  There wasn't any difference to speak of, anyway. 

 

Not that at least a more convincing illusion of choice wouldn't have been nice.  You know, like someone pushing lower tax bites, smaller penalties on new business formation such as foreclosure relief, no self-employment tax under $100,000, a meaningful anti-war stance, fewer foreign entanglements, real borders...all that stuff neither candidate has stated unequivocally.

 

But, that's how things are in the Checkbook Republic lately. Sigh..

 

Trading With the Enemy Next?

The State Department's astounding lack of history never ceases to amaze me.  "U.S. to take North Korea off Terrorism blacklist" later today if the story's right.  Check me on this, but aren't we still at war with them?  Stalemated, but war nonetheless?

 

What kind of election year horse crap is this?  They still selling missile parts to Tehran?  As the Bankers Coup spread to State?  Does anyone know what "logical consistency" means?  Raise your hand....anyone?  Anyone?

 

--- snip and save section ---

Coping: Right Mind

A number of long-time readers are finding that events seem to be whizzing by them at dizzying speeds lately.  Here's a sample:

"George,

If you are anywhere near as exhausted as I am in trying as a mere mortal to keep up with what I have taken to calling the "bursting of the Johnstown dam" and watching in fascinated horror at the onrushing torrent of minute-by-minute, hourly, quarter-daily, and daily news bulletins, and then the weekly summaries, of the global financial meltdown and crisis that no one, save for you a few other honest non-MSM folk call a spade what it is: a spade: The unfolding of the Second Great Depression, then (unless you consume illegal substances, and more power to you, George, if you do!), you must be drinkin' one hell of a lot of cup of joe to maintain the energy to both report for readers such as me on your well presented evidence written so often with wit, as well as run your forty acres and a mule for you and the wife down there in the President's home state deep in the heart. "

Another offers this:

"George,

Your website is to be credited for helping people save their arses in this market, but it's not time for congratulations yet. If people want to REALLY save their arses they should be buying PHYSICAL Silver ( if they can find it ) or Gold BEFORE the US follows Germany's actions and quits selling to John Q Public. Otherwise the "saved" people will soon find their paper including SLV and GLD "going Weimar" ala A Greenspan's warning on Social Security. Inflation, deflation, whatever the PMs will save many arses when the dust finally settles and I think that needs to be broadcast loud and clear. If things get as bad as HPH sez I'd be surprised if Treasuries will be left standing..."

Well, there is that.  I am not a fan of money market accounts that invest in treasuries (or their claimed 'equivalents') for the simple reason that putting some nongovernmental business entity between me and the government doesn't make sense when I can have a TreasuryDirect account just doesn't add up. 

---

Which gets me to an interesting point here:  A number of people have asked me "Which of the TreasuryDirect products would you pick?  Well, the first thing I selected was Regular Savings Bonds.  Why? 

 

Follow my logic here:  The government used to have a $30,000 limit per year on how munch a regular human could have in Savings bonds.  But, last year I think it was, they announced that the annual limit would be lowered to just $5,000 per year.  So, I asked myself, why would they do that?  Whenever someone tells me I can't buy too much of this, or that, I get to studying it really close.

 

FIRST thing I did was get the house limit on savings bond.  Further items will not be purchased so much on their yield promises, but on something much more important to me (as I may play some of this stuff right down to the wire:  Look at the sweep times from your bank account.  In other words, depending on the Treasury product, they will actually be pulled from your bank account sooner, or later, depending on product and auction date.

 

I HAVE NOT checked with any bankers of this, but I wonder if even in event of a bank holiday whether banks would be able to say "No!" to the Treasury if they have an ACH transfer from a bank?  Not that it matters, but definitely something worth penciling out.

 

Curious Correlation

A reader wonders:

"Ever notice how, when the U.S. financial guys want to pressure China to do their economic bidding, and China balks, we get a rash of stories about "unsafe" Chinese products? IMHOP, the safety problems have always been there, but only get focused on when the U.S. demands China adopt a certain course financially.

LOL.  You think?  "More melamine-trained produces seized" couldn't mean China's still acting independent on the dollar mess, could it?

 

Literary Critic

A friend from the publishing business takes me to task for saying:

George Bush has been out pronouncing the same old solutions (the modern analog to "We have nothing to fear but fear itself"

No, the analogue is “the economy is basically sound”: Herbert Hoover.

Roosevelt's quote seemed much more generous.  At least I didn't trot out the Irving Fisher quote that comes to mind every time I saw the 'money honeys' trot out the bottom picker of the hour this past week: "“security values in most instances were not inflated.”

 

(Elaine was not pleased with my use of the phrase 'bottom picker' - "What a gross image that conjures up..." she complained.  Well maybe....OK...poor phrase... too linguistically hot for some...but a fine newsroom grade double entendre.)

 

Mass Hysteria Department

We're watching this one as a kind of 'test tube' of how people work.  I mean, if I were teaching a sociology or psychology class, this would be really a cool thing to study: "Blossom Goodchild Prediction for Oct. 14th of Mass UFO Sighting - What the Abductees Think Will Happen..."

 

We all know the unexplained/high profile disappearance verbiage doesn't come along until about Spring 2009.  Still, very interesting to sit back and observe... Wonder if the early arrivals will pop by the Jersey City UFO festival next weekend?

---

In our part of East Texas, if a local says "Beam me up..." odds are pretty good, they're waving toward an empty glass on the bar and referring to the Beam with a Jim in front of it...

 

With 10XCSN maybe out there, Beaming up sounds reasonable to me...maybe a tad early even if it is a weekend...although it's never to early for pie...

---

Send snip and save items to george@ure.net