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Published Monday - Friday about 8 AM Central Time Except Holidays....many major typos are fixed by 8:30 daily
Saturday
April 25, 2009
07:55 CDT
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Pandemic Flu Arrives Although in the last predictive linguistics run from www.halfpasthuman.com there were indications that disease of the pandemic sort wouldn't show up in the US until late November or December of this year, swine flu has broken out and the Centers for Disease Control says it's too late to contain it. When I last checked, there had only been eight confirmed cases in the US, but there was plenty around the net about the importance of hand-washing and other 'hot zone' protocols if you're planning to stay out of sick bay. --- The conspiratorial side of me wonders if this isn't maybe just a grand way to put the final kibosh on the user of cash. "Dirty money" passed from person to person would sure be easy to position during a serious epidemic, wouldn't it? On the other side - and more realistically - since swine flu apparently got loose in Mexico where 60 have died so far - a figure that's expected to rise - and I'm stumped as to why air and cross-border traffic hasn't been slowed or halted.
If you get some time, you might want to review the US government web site at www.pandemicflu.gov and read through most everything there.
I'll send a note to my son and ask him "Where the hell is your book on disease containment you've been working on?" Along with a note, of course, to check out what the US government is doing in terms of investigating the swine flu outbreak.
One thing to have plenty of on hand? Bleach. Yup, plain simple household bleach (Clorox/Purex, et al) is about as good as disease prevention gets...especially when augmented by disinfecting hand wipes that Elaine uses religiously when touching a new shopping cart at the store, and so on.
Gee, you think my pile of 3% PCMX surgical scrubs and my Scott full-face NIOSH P100 mask is overkill?
The headline that the World Health Organization may name the outbreak as an 'event of international concern' just boggles the mind. We're led by geniuses, for sure.
Banks: Another One Bites the Dust A couple of Saturdays back I reported how we had already tied the number of banks closed in 2008 and we were only about 3-10th's of the way into the year. Well, now we're ahead of 2008 with four more bank closures (or more properly: shotgun marriages to other institutions) being announced on Friday.
Last week, we had a 2008 run rate of about 1.8 bank closures per week and this data point, while it's not necessarily a trend-indicator, is way ahead of that rate, so if someone says the financial crisis is easing, you couldn't prove it by the FDIC bank closure data. Maybe Treasury Secretary Geithner is looking at something else that causes him to be optimistic?
Anyway, last week's closures were right about on trend (2 closed) and this week is well over trend --- Not to beat you around the head and shoulders with how disconnected from reality the national media is, but when I hit the Google news search engine, the two keyword search "geithner optimism" came back with 1,671 hits. The search "fdic closures" came back with 309.
Say, you don't think my assertion that the MainStreamMedia is hopelessly out of touch, or worse - deliberately downplaying a currently unpleasant reality - could possible be true, do you? We're 16 weeks into the year and 29 have augured in. So we're holding at 1.8125 banks closing per week, which means at the current run rate we'll see 94.25 banks close this year.
Life After Friday Since this is Saturday, and since Elaine and I were out trying to lay out the foundation piers for a new 20 by 20 foot deck until about 7 PM last night, this morning's report will not only be short, but it will be helped along with a strong pain reliever (left over from the last root canal) since I'm in a world of hurtin' this morning. Yes, tossing around treated 20 foot s by 8's is harder on this side of 60, in case you were wondering. But over all, progress is as expected on any of the larger projects around the ranch: Costs are half again as much as first estimates, takes twice as long, but the results are more satisfying in the end.
So while we'll get to the summary of the past week's financial events in a moment, I though I'd disclose after a full day of hard work (4:30 AM to 7 PM) Friday, that it's as much fun cutting up rebar with the cutting torch, putting down the ground cloth, covering it with gravel, as it is writing a column about economics; except for the pain of the next day. In economics, there's just as much need for pain relievers, it's just that I'm used to headaches, not these damn muscles that I didn't know existed previously. --- That said, the old Dow lost about 55 points for the week, which isn't bad since we had been trolling down around 6,600 not that long ago. My long-awaited rally seems to be well underway not and should last (best I can figure but remember this is NOT investment advice) well into summer before it gets derailed by unsocial social behavior of the unruly masses and a realization that if the wages of sin are death, then the wages of free lunches are inflation. In other words, my entry into silver commodity options looks like a decent enough play, since gold closed the week over $900.
Not that I'm especially greedy about such things, but since silver did decline percentage-wise a lot more than gold, I expect once gold gets back over the $1030 area that silver will have recovered toward $20 -- its old high tide mark. Two things ought to drive the metals picture. First, there were reports this week that China was trying to turn some of its foreign currency reserves into gold which explains the rise of the yellow dog. The other thing is that despite China's buying of copper, the price has continued soft and that's bullish for silver, since some portion of silver output is as a byproduct to copper and other industrial metals mining.
Little happens in the blink of an eye, but I've got mine open and looking for improvement in the precious metals. The only question is how fast will it show up and with that be before some of my silver options expect (June 25 and August 26) or will it show up later? --- Well enough of this blathering on...it's still raining which I take it as a sign from Universe that I'm supposed to go out in the rain and lightning and dance around with my Skil saw. See you Monday, unless there's a big blue flash....Hmmm...come to think of it, maybe I'll head back to the rack...
Peoplenomics The Really Long View of Investing Although I gave up cigar smoking several decades back, if there's a mindset to be in for this week's report, it'd be the fresh cup of coffee, a cigar, and being in no particular hurry, since we have a lot so much to cover. Over in the ChartPack section, we'll be pondering the meaning of the pending Armstrong Turn date. Here, we'll be asking a few questions about hidden archeology, which in case you're wondering, may have a lot more to do with how modern-day investing works than you might think. And we'll get into the future of the web bot project and a couple of thoughts on what it's like to touch the future. So clip the end off that virtual stogie and let's get to it starting with...
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Tell Your Friends About this Site So let me ask you this: When was the last time you ran into a no BS site about economics, investing, and the changing lifestyle that a resource-limited world needs to evolved? Well, why not tell someone about it? Click here for a tool that may help.
"Live on $10,000" Updated What? You haven't ordered the ebook "How to Live on $10,000 a year -- or less"? Suit yourself. We're all going to live it shortly, anyway. I just thought you might like a heads up by reading about how to do it before you get pink-slipped. But, suit yourself OR visit www.liveontenthousand.com or, click one of the following button:
Yep - still possible. I also took a bit of additional material that was pertinent from recent issues of Peoplenomics and included them. The whole thing runs about 65 pages, but it gives you a vision of how to not only live on the aforementioned dollar amount, but also how to migrate up the economic foodchain if you make a little more than that and do some active savings... Click here for the page with more details on it. ---- Last week's report is here. For back issues of this site, click here. (Goes back to 1997!)
Friday April 24, 2009 Mass Layoffs Continue Just so we're clear on the numbers here, the latest report this morning from the Labor Department on Mass Layoffs is important to watch:
Now, repeat after me "Good times are just ahead..."
Durable Goods Another data point to watch: Durable Goods report from the Census Bureau:
So the durable orders report can be argued either way...
Economic Emergencies, Redux After slogging through the latest boatload of financial headlines, it's perhaps best to pause here to consider the implications of a story out of Florida earlier this week. The AP headline over at Google was that "Fla. county declares emergency over economy". But it's only the tip of what is turning into a very big iceberg.
What's come into focus is that as the economy augurs in, so does tax revenue, the lifeblood of municipal, county, and state governments. We've already seen that legislatures, such as California's, don't have the balls to deal with making government smaller since that's not being bureaucrats is all about. As the Ventura County Star headlines this morning "Voters get final say on California budget deal" which, best I can figure, means that the folks in Sacramento have abdicated and they're putting fiscal responsibility back on voters.
As Arnold Schwarzenegger is out campaigning for the various budget measures, I find myself wondering what the point of having a legislature or Congress, for that matter, is if all they do is repackage the hard questions and throw them back at the public? --- Is there an alternative? Of course! It's something I call "Computational Democracy" - not for this weekend's Peoplenomics report, but for the weekend after this one...
Another Banking Crisis Seen Just the headline in Ambrose Evans-Pritchard's latest Telegraph piece "Germany's slump risks 'explosive' mood as second banking crisis looms" speaks volumes. Yeah...like there's a second banking crisis ahead. Try to act surprised when it shows up this fall.
No Comment A couple of readers have asked me to comment on the report that a "Top Freed Mac Official 'suicided' after $50 billion traced from US to Israel". No thanks. --- Say, I wonder if that hit story hit the Megaphone desktop tool?
Diogenes Should Pass D.C. Who? Oh, you know, the old days guy looking for an honest man...yeah, Diogenes. Not that looking for an honest woman would yield him any better luck, either. How can I make such a sweeping generalization? "Pelosi: I didn't know about the use of waterboarding" headlines on Glenn Thrush report while another says "Pelosi briefed on Waterboarding in '02." --- Pappy taught me something really simple a long time ago which ought to be posted in every congressional members office: "Tell the truth: That way you only have one story to remember..."
Cell Tracking Speaking of honesty, here's another one where there are two versions of story about. According to the "ACLU: US attorney used GPS to track cell phones." But, the fellow who is the one-time US attorney and is now running of the republicorp ticket for governor in New Jersey, claims all actions were approved by the courts. --- Lemme see: Who's more likely to be on the side of goodness here: A Bush-era US attorney or the ACLU...
Some Earth Day "Obama's Earth Day flights burned more than 9,000 gallons of fuel" reports CBS. Gee, sound's like he's been on the horn to Al Gore...how's that go again? Oh yeah..."Do as we say, not as we...." --- You saw this? "Report: Democrats Refuse to Allow Skeptic to Testify Alongside Gore At Congressional Hearing."
While we're at it, let's ban those lack of sunspots stories, too...
Prime Time Lemme see here....Obama on the cover of Time again?
And speaking of prime time (of the other sort) the president is planning another prime time press conference on Wednesday of next week to outline what he's done in the first 100-days in office. I mean besides be the best ever firearms salesman. --- Wonder if he actually got any of those tea bags? Or, I have to wonder, darkly and suspiciously, if the republicorps own a bunch of tea companies...
Here's the new way of politics coming this fall. Democorps will hold coffee hours with their candidates, Republicorps will hold tea parties' and UrbanSurvival readers will book tee times.
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Coping: Web Bot Project Sabotage A number of readers have asked for a little more clarity on the last part of the web bot project ALTA report #1309. ALTA standing for Asymmetric Language Trend Analysis, if you didn't already know...
From talking to Cliff this week, here's the problem in a nutshell: There will be a long delay before any more ALTA work can be posted. That's because some damn fool went and posted the copyrighted material all over the internet...and that makes it nigh on to impossible to do a run.
Here's why whoever posted the material basically scuttled the whole project: The bots begin by going out and reading samples of interesting posts in all kinds of forums and discussion groups. BUT, since posting of the ALTA report has now been done, whoever posted it has basically poisoned the posting forum so we have to take that one off the list of forum otherwise we'd simply be sampling our own data....you following this? It sets up something like a feedback loop.
OK, if it was just one forum, it would be a relatively simple matter to resolve. A single site filter, or just drop that one site from spidering and off we go to the other hundreds of thousands of others on the 'net.
But then along come the cross-posters. These are the folks that take something posted on one forum and then repost it to another. You starting to 'get it'? Once the extract of 1309 was posted it spread like wildfire...such that the size of the filter writing just to weed out our own stuff becomes a monumental task of about a man-month.
And that's a serious programmer man-month, comprised of 12-14 hour days of code writing, testing, and so on. So 2-3 months if a normal schedule is included, and testing after that.
I don't know if the sabotage was deliberate, or not, but the effect of any posting of the web bot material effectively 'poisons the well' -- so thanks a bunch. --- Now a reader sends this:
Well, no, it's not a marketing campaign. One doesn't generally take a product off the market as part of a marketing campaign...except for the case of Coca Cola which took Coke off the market to 'reinvent itself" of course.
If there's anything more to be added publicly, it will be posted here and on Cliff's www.halfpasthuman.com site. ----- It might seem like looking into the future would 'be a kick' - and having some foreknowledge of coming events has generally been interesting and we've learned a fair bit about how humans work as a predictive 'antenna array' that comes out as subtle language changes.
But looking at the future carries a huge personal burden, especially if in looking at the future you see some things that are less than cheerful.
You should already have figured out that the world is careening out of control toward an unhappy ending because humans have become largely preoccupied with the pursuit of money instead of the pursuits of happiness and knowledge.
Just one example: Cliff noted in a recent interview with Monte Torres of KMPH in Fresno (to air in mid to late May), that if the US really wanted to end North Korea's dangerous dictatorship, we'd simple drop pallets of food on them day and night for a few weeks. Once the people have enough food and don't have to take marching orders from leaders who use food as a control mechanism, the old control system would fail and a new system of governance would arise.
But, unfortunately, the world doesn't seem to do that kind of thing and besides, Universe may have other plans for us.
So I'll conclude with what I mentioned last week. The most important commodity any of us has is time. But, then again, we could be wrong.
With Falling Auto Sales While most of the email around here (according to Zeus the Cat, who sorts the unsorted emails for me) agrees with my assessment of the auto industry, I got this note from our other reader who says the real snake in the woodpile is (hold on...this is a shocker...) BANKS! Check it out:
Gee...how's about that? Banks at the root of the problem...imagine that! Dang...who'd thought? Arm-twisting sonava... --- Not all, of course. I hold genuine community bankers in high regard as well as land banks.
Don't ask me about credit card companies, though, at least not with children present. Latest spin there? On one of the financial channels there was actually some defense of credit card fees saying the CC companies need that to make a profit. Well, what about the fees they charge to merchants, huh? The public doesn't hear about them much... but like I said, cover your kids ears and get them out of here while I still have control of myself... --- Send your comments and positive suggestions on how to improve the world to george@ure.net while there's still something around worth saving!
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Thursday April 23, 2009 Depression Psychology: The Auto Sales Problem When I'm note writing grand socioeconomic hypotheses, or chasing goats hither and yon, or working on construction projects around the ranch, I've been known to put on my hat as a general management and sales & marketing consultant; eating being a habit and all. So I think it's significant to note two stories which help to define most clearly the conundrum facing political 'leadership' in America - such as it is - in what continues to be an evolving Second Depression.
The conundrum's essence can be distilled into juxtapositions of newspaper and wire service stores. Let's take these two: ""Sources: GM to shut most US plants for up to 9 weeks" on the one hand, while on the other "AP Poll: More Americans upbeat than not." Here, take a good sniff of this china board marker and see if we can generalize a little something off these two. How about: American's not willing to step up and buy cars are previous rates but their mood about the economy is improving.
Seems to me we can infer one of three possibilities from this: One being that carmakers have misread market conditions. That, unfortunately, is not a high probability since elsewhere, an AP report mentions that GM may be forced to skip a $1-billion debt payment. I have to imagine that GM's got a pretty good methodology to tracking sales on at least a daily basis, if not hourly.
The second possibility is that the CBS/AP poll is wrong. But again, hard to imagine that they could be since both are competent news operations and some on staff for sure knows what 'n' is in statistics and is expert at sample sized. With results pegged at +/- 3./1% Obama's first 100 days are doing better than his predecessor. And now, 36% of American's figure the country is headed in the right direction. Plus or minus error.
So confidence is coming back, but what's selling in the auto dealerships? No much. --- The third possibility is that the country has passed some kind of intergenerational turning point (or tipping point) and that it really will dramatically redefine how economic life works going forward. It's not just as one "GE exec says economic crisis resetting capitalism" as one headline put it, but much broader context I suspect it's the emergence of and economic depression psychology.
While it's not an overwhelming number, stories that compare president Obama to first-time-around New Dealer, president Franklin Roosevelt, are popping up here and there. Take for example the headline last weekend in the LA Times "Measuring Obama by FDR's yardstick".
Moreover, despite the occasional MSM (MainStreamMedia) slam on those of us who are thrifty and prep for a hard-to-yet-distinguish future, other stories are appearing that make us look prescient to those with an open mind. I'd point you at a college newspaper like Kent State University's www.kentnewsnet.com and their story "Getting by During the Great Depression" when "alumna worked for 15-cents an hour" as an indication of the great socioeconomic redefinition in order. --- On my schedule today is more groundwork/research which is directed toward the idea of identifying those new trends and products (e.g. what's gonna be sold?) in the Second Depression. Working title of this week's Peoplenomics.com report is "What's in play?"
Obviously, I won't go into it in great detail here, but let me give you a broad hint: Starting thinking about companies that were founded in the period 1929-1940. Do a little research and I think you'll be surprised. --- But back to the specifics of Detroit's problems? What's facing them is less a traditional sales problem, so much as 'getting right' of what consumers today are looking for. People really are following the "transformational" path outlined in the HPH linguistics over a year ago. It's just what when the information is right there slapping you in the face, saying "Hey Buddy! Transformation is Going On here!".
A fine lesson is to be learned from the MSNBC headline Tuesday: "Subaru's going approach works in tough times." Subtitled: "Function over form is helping the automaker actually grow sales."
And that's the key right now: Form over function. Sell functionality instead of style, and position on price/benefit rather than status and you get somewhere. Which is why the MSNBC piece mentions the 'buru's, Wranglers, and Smarts. I'd throw in Porsches, too. Because when it comes to function of sports car I have yet to drive better. --- Elaine and I keep looking at buying another car and this is precisely what we come down to: What's our 'function' list. Elaine wants something a bit uncommon, yet with high safety and good mileage, low maintenance, and decent handling. My criteria are price and long term viability of the company's American market presence; having had a Daewoo and a Fiat, it's been like my buying the cars was the death-knell of the company's North American sales.
Although cruising eBay's Fiat ads today I noticed there aren't any Fiat Strada's (the American badged version of the Fiat Ritmo, which I bought during the five minutes the cars were sold in North America) for sale. I found it a great combination of good handling, four-door practicality, the Golf/Rabbit kind of form factor and really cheap. It served me well. 31 MPG and we're talking 1980's.
So, one of these days, Elaine and I will actually go up to Tyler and she'll drive the new Kia Soul, which seems like a decent enough car. I sure hope, if I buy one, that it won't spell Big Trouble for Kia, as my Strada/Ritmo purchase in about '85 did for Fiat's N.A. group. or my 2001 purchase of the Daewoo did for that company.
Even inclined as I am to consider the slightly larger Pontiac small SUV my neighbor across the road picked up, I'm worried that if I bought one of those, that the Pontiac brand might disappear or "go fiat/Daewoo" on me; the headlines are already out "Future uncertain for Pontiac, GM brands."
Which brings up the third key marketing point after form and function.
Future of the company. That's because a lot of folks are in the same boat as us: Sure we could buy a car today...might even do so if there was the right form and function at a decent price. But now there's this cloudy future of the underlying company to crank into the equation.
The report that "Fiat CEO may break pledge as Chrysler deadline looms" comes as no surprise to me. I've already seen Fiat high-tail it out of the North American market once and I personally got stuck 'holding the bag' with my green Strada.
What's this? George carrying a grudge? Me? Over something that happened 23 years, 5 months, 17 days, 7 hours, 28 minutes and 14 seconds ago? Surely you jest!
Fiat's losing half a billion (in US dollars) as reported this morning ain't exactly a surprise.
Tax the Rich? Still Waiting Department I see where the UK government is upping the top-end income tax rate to 50%. But here's the key thing: As long as selected (read: really really rich) Brits can shovel things into Swiss accounts, then their effective tax rates will still be below the working class.
Does that suck? Gee, yah think?
"Golly, George, a little bitter this morning are we?" Pardon me, but No shit Sherlock. When I sharpen my pitchfork here at the ranch, banksters, fraudsters, and greedsters piling up dough outside of America when I'm paying a five-figure tax bill just irks the hell out of me. And government's response is a sham because they leave the loopholes open for the folks that make the big campaign contributions.
In legalese it's called "structuring". --- Not that it's a US/UK problem of course. It's endemic to being rich. In India, for example, a headline yesterday was about how "Pranab denies UPA going slow on unearthing Swiss bank accounts."
So it goes with being rich. Notice how the reports that the US government was starting to look at 100 Americans for hiding money from taxes in Switzerland's UBS (out of what seem to recall are 50,000+ American accounts) have just sort of drifted away for now? Wonder where the wires will go next...got any friends in Grand Turk?
And so the game goes. Oh sure, the US Public Interest Research group said in a report last week that it's costing us little guys $100-billion a year that we have to make up since the rich get to skate. Hand me my pitchfork file would yah? Yeah, that's it - the fat bastard file.
How do you spell "Never Happen"? This oughta be fun: president Obama is planning to meet with credit card executives and press them for reform. But come on now, what is the industry gonna say? "Gee, we're sorry we're charging 33% usury...and we'll knock it down to something that floats a max of 10-points over CPI"? ROFL. never frigging happen, LOL. Showmanship's good, though. More bread and circuses over here, if you please!
Space Goat Farts Department Linguistically, the SGF component of the web bot project is a sort of dumping ground for all oddities noticed while 'looking up.' This morning's SGF newbie is the report of a "Giant mystery block found near dawn of time."
Our cartoon from Rebecca Price this week says it all about Texas' "independent minded" governor:
Be sure and enter Rebecca's cartoon captioning contest over at www.toon-republic.com ...
Markets The Dow still seems to be headed for a bounce after dropping 82 on Wednesday. UPS earnings came in lower than expected today. You mean like people slowing down buying things even online) might have an impact? 'Magine that?
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Coping: Get'cher Water Cannons! Step Right Up! Here's a little of that "better capitalists than us" kind of thinking out of Russia. A new water cannon, barricade busting truck. Just the ticket for the coming "summer of hell in France, the UK and US, huh? Don't mind the employees calling it an 'anti-democracy truck'.
Have to admit it: I'm thinking about getting one for here at the ranch. It'd be just the ticket for keeping the goats in line...
There Goes Montana... A reader sends along the link to Montana House bill 246 which would outlaw Federal Gun laws in the big sky state:
I keep coming up with a retooled version of the Leonard Cohen song "First we take Mahattan, then we take Berlin.." except now it's First we loose Montana, then we loose...."
Helping the British A subject of the crown wonders:
Nope, won't go shooting you down. This is what whipsawing the commoners is all about. Welcome to economic realism...which the MSM is trying to paint into a corner as some kind of pessimistic porn. It's not. The numbers make the case, plain and simple. We're screwed. You just happened to look up the cattle chute a bit...
That Luxembourger Wit Buddy who writes this morning from Luxembourg offers this great quote:
Wednesday April 22, 2009 Another Key Second Depression Marker With the stroke of a pen and some words about the need for Americans to volunteer, the president Tuesday signed a $5.7 billion tripling of the AmeriCorps volunteer program. The White House blog (modern of em, huh?) makes this point in its April 21 pointing:
In all fairness, as the UK Independent online edition points out: "Obama: 100 days, 100 ways | From closing down Guantanamo and banishing lobbyists, to dressing down in the Oval Office and planting vegetables on the South Lawn, the Obama presidency is reshaping America. "
It hasn't been all progressive change, for as some of my republicorp contacts has expressed it "Obama has been the best salesman ever for guns and ammunition in America."
That the president is heading to Missouri April 29th to make his first 100-days in office hasn't escaped my notice. You know the old saying? Missouri loves company. --- But seriously (in my best Henny Youngman impression) the present course of America has a nice rhyme to the first Great Depression. Now, like then, there's an air of denial about the whole thing. It's like people can read their 401(k) statements, but somehow believe that what's going on in America's boardrooms - and more particularly the multinational's boardrooms - somehow will all be fixed in the twinkling of an eye, and America will return to its position as the lone Super Power in the world.
Sorry to break the bubble, but that seems unlikely to happen for any number of reasons and I could point out the increasing debt that weighs on the US dollar, the falling earnings potential of companies that are struggling to meet even starkly reduced earnings forecasts, and a sense of distrust of the financial products industries in general thanks to names like Madoff, and dare we say it? Bush.
The Second Depression isn't happening overnight and in fact is taking considerably longer than myself and many other armchair/People's Economist types had expected. One reason is the revolution in technology which has kept system market information gaps relatively low - the upside of daytrader demand one can suppose.
But the larger picture and longer view still argues that on a purchasing power basis, e.g. corrected for inflation, it never got better than the Spring of 2000 when the Dow and other indices set their purchasing power highs. --- So as the president calls out to Americans to become more involved in volunteerism, I look up and reread the Wikipedia entry on the Civilian Conservation Corps which was a cornerstone of the Roosevelt New Deal:
Depending on how things work out this fall (linguistically remember to circle your calendar this year for the last week of October and mark it "Crisis picks up steam here") we'll likely see a second major public employment push in winter 2009-2010 to perhaps summer 2010. People have to be kept busy, off the streets, or like in the 1930's, there will be calls for a major paradigm shift by upstart political organizations. Can't have those kinds of challenges to the PowersThatBe now, can we?
The second Wiki reading on point therefore becomes the Works Progress Administration which seems to me destined to be remanufactured, retooled, updated, and upgraded to fit the continuing economic cycle bottom in 2010-2011:
What do Great Depressions have in common? For one thing, governments try to spend their way out of trouble. As a Wiki entry on the political consequences of the Great Depression notes:
At a time when policy might be directed along the lines of "Women and children to the lifeboats first..." current policy seems to have launched the bankers in the biggest and fastest of all the available lifeboats, and again in fairness to the Obama administration, the Bushco crew lined them up and set the biggest off with no regards for the folks under the overpass, which the mealy-mouthed, co-opted MainStreamMedia marginalized, even as it continues to fan the charade of right-left politics while the real politics are of the up/down type; the kind that concentrates wealth in never-before-seen extremes in the hands of the few at the expense of - quick...look surprised here -- the many.
What will be curious to watch will be how the arrival of a new paradigm will be spun on behalf of the existing holders of power - American and British, Western European financial interests. It was easy enough last time around to goad Japan into the World War II...a subject that it turns out was not as cut and dried as when it was presented to Baby Boomers in school in the 1950's. A broader perspective "What Really caused World War 2" offers this on events of October 16, 1941:
All of which is not to say Roosevelt was wrong, but the record suggests that Japan was cornered in some sense of it.
Recall that the Great Depression was not a single economic event; it was two. The first break in the Great Depression came as the high in the stock market in the fall of 1929 (Sept 3, if I recall right) and then dropped like a stone into the abyss of 1933-34. From there, we saw a period of recovery.
the modern analog was the drop as the tech bubble burst in the second half of 2000 and the economy was on the verge of hitting new lows in 2001 only to be saved by the Twin Towers attack which spun the country on a dime, rallied everyone around the flag so to speak, and launched the first of the Second Depressions great employment programs: The War on Terror.
Just as there was some recovery after the first major downturn, America had been in 'economic recovery mode' from early 2002 until October of 2007 when the Dow hit a nominal (but not inflation adjusted) new high just over 14,000. Then we began out descent into what I look at as the analog to the secondary depression of 1936-1939, which ended with America saddling up to ride into WW 2.
Things aren't going to work out as a perfect rhyme this time, but if we look for parallels, there are more than a few at hand, and an investor or simply a regular human would be a damn fool not to be well-read on the past events so that their follow-ons can be discerned with sufficient clarity to allow a well-reasoned alternative path to be forged.
So to me, probably the biggest story of the week is hoopla that goes with great public works. If you find yourself pinching your arm and muttering "Haven't I read about this someplace before?" Indeed you have. But like I said: Missouri loves company.
Death of Consumerism Speaking of advertising revenue and lifestyles changing, here's an article in Advertising Age you oughta check out: "Forget AIG, Mortgage Lenders: Crisis Is Fault of Shops, Media New Harris Poll 'Blames the Messenger,' Says Americans Coaxed Into Buying Things They Couldn't Afford."
Again, I come around to my favorite harping point: There's gotta be a balance between happiness of a new sparklie-something and the agony of the payments.
Newspaper Wars The NY Post reports today that the "Cash-starved (NY) Times effectively has $34 M left in the bank." --- I remember an era when laying in bed reading the Sunday NYT Times (especially the book reviews and such) was a luxury. Now I can lounge with a laptop and not get ink all over everything...and some of the Amazon reading comments on various books are pretty good...
It Makes Sense The headline that "US recession linked to more abortions, vasectomies" makes perfect sense in an old farmerly sorta way: We're getting screwed so much in other ways, maybe?
Financial Industry Suicide WTOP is reporting that the "Acting CFO of Freddie Mac commits suicide." Yeah, we'll watch to see what the details are...
Markets Although I haven't spoken with him yet, I wouldn't be surprised if my friend Robin Landry has pushed clients back onto the short side following yesterday's bounce-back rally. Could be a timely entry since the futures are pointing down and the Morgan Stanley losses out this morning are worse than expected.
Sun Disease, Redux More coverage today - this time from the BBC - on how quiet the sun is being of late. Say, you don't think a cooling sun could turn around and make global warming a good thing do you? Wonder how many politicians and groups would take credit for that one? --- "One in three children fear Earth apocalypse." The question I didn't see asked was "How many of them fear politicians or lobbyists?" That's the one I'm wondering about... --- Of course if the extremely quiet sun turns out being counterbalanced by an extremely active sun on the other side of Cycle 25, then who knows? Maybe the kids are onto something...
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Coping: Past Life Regression Feedback Yesterday's note on our friend who is planning to try a 'past life regression' hypnosis session, to see if there are any past life causes of current health issues, just about flooded me with email. Here are just a few of the responses to my position "If you can't bring back the skills, what's the point?"
Aha! My 'remembered skill sets' in action. The most intriguing response came from someone who has not only been 'regressed' but who has also become a regression therapist:
This reader's past life regression site is: http://www.AmericasHypnosisCenter.com. So bottom lining, what's to be made of it? Another reader offers:
One other thing: I'd be remiss if I didn't offer a pretty stiff warning to people who are not really 'straight' in their thinking and who are looking at a past life regression as a 'quickie solution' to some of life's larger problems. No, like trying to get into a Zen-like state to where you can "touch the Stream" directly, this is not to be undertaken without a certain amount of mediation, purification, and contemplation. Otherwise, there is the potential forbad things to come back from the session with you.
I'm still thinking about that one. Do I really want to 'remember' what dying is like? Or, is that the fun of this Life - getting to learn the old lessons all over again? Hmmm...still thinking on that one.
Like so many things in management, finance, personal life, and economics, time will bring along the answers when it chooses - no matter what. Question is "Do I want to go out and engage on this one, or shouldn't I be up weeding the garden? Only so many hours to Life...
Nailing It As I sit around waiting for my deck-building lumber to be delivered today or tomorrow, my $100 box of stainless framing nails should be here on tomorrow's UPS delivery. But are stainless nails the be all - end all? Seems not:
I did get ring shank, so maybe somewhat better...remind me to check in five years, ROFL. --- I try not to go too much overboard on the ham radio stuff, but now and then...except to chat with Elaine when she's on the way to the store, I haven't turned on one of my 'big rigs' in a couple of months. I do have the International Morse Preservation Society's next contest marked in Outlook: "The Spring SPRINT will run from 1700 UTC to 2100 UTC on Second Saturday in May." May 9th and my member number is 13106...I'll try to post a reminder in the May 8 column.
Footloose Caboose One other construction project note:
For me it came down to cost and customization, since this being a ranch and all, both gas welder with cutting torch and an electric welder are right at hand. My 'caboose-like" building would be considerably wider than the 'real' caboose'. No use working my butt off on something if it doesn't deliver exactly what I want at the end of the project.
Speaking of which... anyone know where I can get a simple 48" x 48" shower stall? I've been trying to find something reasonable, and like I told Elaine as our next project is refurbing the master bath (soon as my bout of deck-building disease" passes) we can build our own shower pan, but I'd rather not screw around with it...just use off the shelf components. The odds of screwing it up and getting leaks is smaller and the construction time is just a whole lot cheaper.
One eye opener, if you haven't been bathroom remodeling of late: You can find a relatrively simple shower enclosure like this one for about $600, or something really overkill (for us) like this one that comes with a built-in LCD display and more but it will set you back $3-large.
I'm not sure, but I think I can be away from a monitor long enough to shower. Provided I don't shower while the markets are open, or during business hours when I seem to be on the phone more or less constantly... Then again, there was a time when a -phone- in the bathroom was considered a novelty. Now they're ubiquitous, eh?
Tuesday April 21, 2009 The Cowardly Bull, Redux As I pointed out Sunday to Peoplenomics subscribers in the ChartPack that accompanied this week's report, there is some reason to be a bit 'cowardly' about stocks this week, and as it turns out, I am not alone. I hadn't talked to my friend Robin Landry for a while, but turns out he got his managed accounts out of the long side of stocks last Friday, but no, he didn't get back on the short side --- yet.
When I talked to him on Monday afternoon, with the market down 240 on the Dow at that point, he was planning to wait for a rally and then enter the short side with the expectation that we would head for the 7,250 level on the Dow, which seems reasonable enough. If this is a typical decline, seems to me we ought to see another half day to day and a half of downside action, then a bounce, at which point I expect folks who are pro's like Landry, will enter short positions and ride down to the 7,250 level.
Whether the market then continues to rally into late spring, or even as far as early August, is presently debatable, but with Landry and the linguistics lined up that way, it's not an unreasonable expectation, however as always this is NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. Just thinking out loud here. In my own account, silver seems to have stopped its free-fall on the commodity side and I'm just biding my time until the administration makes the only reasonable policy call they can, and gets serious about propping things up with a bit of inflation.
"US gold rises on save-haven flow, credit fears" is just what I'd been figuring on, although it's taking its own damn time getting here. My wheat options aren't looking as health as the crop, which is looking just dandy in Kansas, but again, my play is to use wheat as a proxy for food price inflation I expect this summer.
So is the nation out of the woods? Is the Second Depression just an illusion of mine based on 15-years of self-delusion? Ha! I hardly think so.
For one thing, the story on CNN headlined "TARP cop: 20 criminal probes" are underway means there's a lot of justice to be dished up yet. And with last week's largest ever bankruptcy in commercial real estate, almost universally ignored in the MSM, we seem to be ensconced in happy-talk time, but not the end of all our woes.
Sure, there's some merger and acquisitions (M&A) activity, like Oracle gobbling up Sun, but M&A is not a business model. Making something and selling it...like well-run companies like DuPont do, that's where the trouble is, as they reported a 59% drop in net profit YoY.
Over the course of the next few months, we seem likely to see some bounce, just as there was a bounce from early 1933 to early 1937 in the last Depression, but we are still 'out in the woods' with mountainous challenges ahead. Just to name one, the Treasury plan to deal with toxic assets is vulnerable to abuse says the TARP watchdog. --- The Washington Times has a story this morning that goes to the idea that Senator Diane Feinstein's husband's real estate company got an FDIC contract to sell off foreclosed real estate from an agency that the senatrix has promoted getting $25 billion for. Of course, this is the kind of thing that goes on all the time and since it's not illegal...so much for 'change'. --- Meantime, the Obama administration is proposing a $100-billion loan of (our tax money!) to the International Monetary Fund. Pardon my skepticism here, but what the hell are we giving the IMF money for when our own country is technically insolvent, or next best (papered-over) thing? I don't know what you call it when the left pocket is buying from the right pocket, but that's what's keeping America alive right now, the Fed buying Treasuries.
Meantime, that $100-million in cuts I told you about earlier this week is being framed as a joke in Washington. If you watch the video what comes through to me is that the 'honeymoon with the press' is over for this administration. --- For my two bits worth, even though they don't project forward as much as I'd like, if you look at The Conference Board's latest out yesterday on the Leading Economic Indicators, there's some reason for caution...especially as the projections work through corporate balance sheets and come out as earnings later in the year:
And this gets me to....
Markets Oil was down 8% since the outlook for the economy has momentarily dimmed again. Inventory levels are due out this morning and that might help oil, depending on where things stand.
Stocks in Europe this morning were weak and the US markets look to extend yesterday's decline, but I wouldn't rule out a possible mid-session turnaround today.
Shake Rattling Dick Guess which former veep is upset with Obama shaking Hugo Chavez hand?
Making Book
Dan Brown, whose Da Vinci Code sold tons of books has a new
one about to his called " The Lost Symbol
Robots Catching Up A McClatchy report says that "Robots are narrowing the gap with humans."
But heck, I've known that since I was dating back in the early 1990's. How you ask? I woman I knew at the time told me I could be replaced with a battery powered device. That's how...
(rim shot)
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Coping: With Past Life Regressions A friend of ours revealed Monday plans to undergo a 'past life regression' on Friday of this week and would be filling us in on the details.
A what? Yep, the plot line is laid out in Wikipedia this way:
At some point, during a pause in the conversation with our friend I said "You know what would be a deal maker-or-breaker for me on whether this stuff is real? When you go 'under' have the hypnotherapist remove all the blocks to remembering past skills you had from these so-called 'previous lives'.
Here's my thinking on this - some interesting stuff to ponder: I know from [reading way too many books and] doing research that it's a fact occasionally children are born with skill sets that there's just no way they could have picked up in this lifetime. True, some of the 'prodigy kids' who were thought to be great painters at age three, or whatever, might have been spoofed by the parents, but there are enough cases that go to remembering skill sets -- like how to play classic piano -- that an open question exists (at least to me) whether there's something here worth spending personal time on rooting out.
Not having spare time in abundance, I figure that if someone I personally know and have a pretty good idea of their skill sets can undergo a past life regression and bring back some hithertofore unknown skill then not only would I believe the stuff is something other than an artifact of the subconscious making up amazing amounts of fantasy, but I'd likely go do it myself. For now, I'll just keep my money in my pocket.
Here's why: Let's say that since I was born in the late 1940's, I can 'make up' a past life where I died in a 'previous life' during World War II. One of the beliefs or at least suspicions of the reincarnation crowd seems to be that people 'come around again' in 3-6 years after their previous death. So let's say that - just hypothetically here - that in a previous lifetime for me, I had been involved in World War II since lots of people died then - and did their return have something to do with the Baby Boom after the War? Good question, but off point..
I could turn my subconscious loose with the reincarnation concept and it would be easy to construct a framework/past life that would 'fit' the circumstances of my actual life. I could hypothecate, for example, that I was a Japanese or Chinese fighter or bomber pilot that was shot down in combat.
How would the 'fit' work out? The idea among many people undergoing regressions is that in this lifetime we go through a kind of karmic workout of previous lives. Further, there are supposedly elements of the current life that are carried forward. So I line up a bunch of data points in my own life and wonder... "Hmmm...what could be fitted from my present life?"
The problem is this: Virtually anyone could take any number of data points in their present life and using the framing reference of a belief in reincarnation, project back some kind of karmic counter-balancing life before this one. Overweight? Maybe in the previous lifetime it was death by starvation. That kind of thing.
What would constitute proof for me that current lives are work-outs of some past life? Our friend who is doing a regression has a particular health issue. Should there be any progress in understanding/treating (or better, spontaneous healing) of the health issue, then yeah, maybe I'd be inclined to buy into it...even to the point of trying it myself.
Even better, as I suggested to our friend "Why not have the hypno-regressionist see if they can get you to bring back some kind of tangible skill from this supposed other lifetime? A language, musical instrument competence...something like that.
I know in my own case, that while I can consciously construct an artificial 'past life framework' that would fit some number of personal data points, doing a regression and waking up with a decent working knowledge of how to read, write, and speak Japanese or Chinese would certainly push me over into the believer column. Otherwise, I'll just sit here skeptical. Hai! Do-zo, and arrigato are already in my personal lexicon, along with konichiwa and a few others but that's not from a past life (so far as I know); it's the stuff one picks up living in a multicultural setting. My command of Spanish goes about as deep.
So that's the challenge of it: Anyone's subconscious can
make up things; some really cool things -- even going so far as
to appear to be direct religious interaction with the
supernatural, as experiments with DMT ( DMT: The Spirit Molecule: A Doctor's Revolutionary Research into the Biology of Near-Death and Mystical Experiences
But if someone could regress me, and have me bring back some specific skills from other lives, well THAT would be tremendously cool. And not anti-religious, I would add, since some have argued that reincarnation was written out of Christianity at the First Council of Nicea back in 325 A.D.
I'll let you know how our friend's adventure goes. Inner explorations hold great promise, but like Jerry McGuire might be paraphrased "Show me the recovered skill sets!"
Star Trek Returns Latest movie in the series is getting great reviews, like this one.
Wonder why? When times suck financially, it's just a natural reaction to say 10-times a day "Beam me up, Scottie!"
Deck Building Tip Since I am planning to throw up a deck this week, a reader offers this:
The price of my deck just went up $94.97 for the requisite stainless fasteners (including shipping) but thanks for the tip!
George, Pornster? Who? Me?
Wait a minute! Get back here...you can accuse me of peddling pessimism porn and run off to your goats now can you? Hello? Anyone one see which way this guy went, LOL?
But Seriously This note from an exec type guy:
Why, sure they are! Good times are just ahead. Problem is they only last over summer and then we're back in crisis mode through the balance of this year into next. ---- The question for government ought to be pondering is this: Would you call an iceberg lookout on the Titanic an 'enemy of the state' or a 'pessimism porn purveyor"? Or, should the captain and the rest of the team maybe proceed with a bit more caution and how about this: Try to maybe listen to the lookouts now and then?
Monday April 20, 2009 Strong-Arming the Banks The report in the Financial Times this morning that the "US to put conditions on TARP repayment" has me wondering if the government isn't really doing a bank nationalization via the back door, so to speak.
On the other hand, there is a simple - and quite compelling reason - why the government should convert some of its TARP lending into equity shares and take a direct role in the running of the banks: "Bank Lending Keeps Dropping" says a Wall Street Journal report today. And that's where the country has a major problem.
The problem is simple as pie/pi/phi (OK, maybe all those aren't simple, but stay with me on this..) what makes an economy grow in a consumer economy is people buying things. So whether it's mindlessly buying things on a credit card, or upgrading to a new home, the greasing of the wheels is readily available debt.
What happens in a recession - at least what has occurred in all the depressions I've read about - is that an important mental tipping point gets crossed by a previously free-spending society. The Roaring Twenties, like the Roaring Nineties recently, was a time of euphoria and 'credit' was a given. The danger we face as a country is that as the commercial real estate sector is next to go through economic pain, more and more people will start reframing their thought processes, such that a major purchase decision will go from "I can buy it on credit" to "I am getting myself further in debt with this purchase..."
One headline this morning puts it this way: "Banks insult the government by lowering lending."
What the banksters may have to reckon with down the road is that TARP stakes could be turned into equity positions in the banks, and you know how unruly them shareholders can be.
Speaking of which: Here's a good ponder for you: Since we've all so generously put money into AIG, to where taxpayers own 80% (or so) of the company, where is our place in the boardroom? I'd be glad to nominate you as an outside director to represent us all, since if you're bright enough to slog through these daily columns, you're probably a helluva lot more on the ball than most of the folks in the District of you-know-what.
Mental image: Arm wrestling between banksters and gov't.
The Discriminating Depression Whoa! One other story in today's FT: "Men bear brunt of US Jobs Lot". Key quote from he article? "Men have lost almost 80 per cent of the 5.1m jobs that have gone in the US since the recession started, pushing the male unemployment rate to 8.8 per cent. The female jobless rate has hit 7 per cent. "
This immediately sent me over to look at the government's stats on such things. In the latest report, men over 16 working was about 81.8-million while there were about 72.2-million women over 16 working.
All of which gets me to wondering if one of the payoffs of the women's movement hasn't been getting women to put on the yoke of labor for corporate ends. Hmmm... Lemme see here: 40-years of rising prices (or more correctly: purchasing power of dollars falling), constant demand for more profits, tearing apart the nuclear family...so now we're all working our butts off. Is anyone having fun yet? Sheesh!
Orders Now that the talks with Hugo Chavez at the Summit of the Americas have wrapped up, time for the prez to move on to ordering $100-million in federal budget cuts. I'd like to order fries, myself.
Theocracy 101 A "Pakistani cleric demands end to conventional courts by April 23" which as far as I can figure would transform justice to just-us for the religious extremists. Taliban-style marketing; Mao would be proud. The US response? Throw more money at Pakistan's government. (Damn, ain't we generous?) --- Speaking of marketing materials for extremists, reports that the US used waterboarding of al Qaida suspects 266 times - much more than previously reported - ought to make a fine marketing piece for extremist recruiting.
Markets A couple of readers have asked me what I make of the latest (Martin) Armstrong turn date Sunday. If the headline is any clue, this week's ChartPack for Peoplenomics.com subscribers is headlined "Cowardly Bull Week." --- As we come up on byte time today, I can't help but notice that China's markets popped up 2.14% overnight on confidence booming there about growth. The price of gold seems to be recovering a bit ('bout time!) and the US markets seem to be headed for a 1.5% loss in the early going.
Don't tell anyone, but I think I see hot money going to Asia...
Time Monks Vacation A fair bit of our clear vision of the future is based on the predictive linguistics work of www.halfpasthuman.com, so I thought I'd pass on that the project is going to be shelved for a while, since we've got a clear enough read on what's coming through the next few months (and into mid 2010) and both Cliff and Igor need some time off to regroup. With permission, here's the very end of ALTA Report 1309:
I'll of course keep you posted on the plans to move the technology forward...there's always more to add and the tuning of the system is tedious work. But in reviewing the project, many of the predictions made have been so far above "chance" that its worth continuing in some form. Being able to see 'tipping points' like 9/11 and such months in advance has been a real privilege for me.
Seeing the future well in advance of events has not been without cost. Most people never really have to answer the question "If I could look into the future and see my own fate, would I?" OK, we've peeked. And if there's something to be learned as a bottom line? It just might be that there are things more valuable than money.
Time, fer instance..
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Coping: As "Normal" Returns With our house/ranch guest, one of Elaine's boys back in Arizona this morning, life here on the ranch gets back to its usual peak of spring business this week. My short list of goodies includes bill paying, client work, and designing a deck & ordering wood today. Tuesday will be writing, client work and setting the deck footings, then on Wednesday, I should be able to slam the deck together over the course of the afternoon. Not that I am a particularly fast worker, but one of the tricks to deck design is to lay everything out so you can use standard-length lumber, and then use a framing nail gun to do the fastening. Niceties like the railings and stairs will take as much time as framing and decking it. Since the deck will be about 20' x 20' when done, I'm figuring the whole project will come in about $750-$800, including everything and hell-built for stout at that. That's about $2.00 a square foot.
All of which gets me around to mentioning that if you do a little shopping, you may find, as I have, that lumber is not particularly expensive here lately, thanks in part to the slow-down in the housing industry.
For sure, some basic power tools help: A laser-guided chop saw, decent air compressor and the framing nailgun, and about every size of galvanized nail that can be had for the gun.
Last year's spring deck project on the north side of the house was put together with decking screws. While they may offer a little better grip, they also take a lot more time and I'm not sure they will last much longer. If you want to use screws fine, but a big deck will take much longer with the screws. Another useful thing to remember if you do real work with a power screwdriver/power drill is to buy 3-4 sets of batteries so you don't end up taking 4-hour coffee breaks while the battery pack recharges. Nailguns do have their place. No idea why spring brings out the deck-builder in me... --- Do-it-yourself projects are a lot of fun...but more important, they add value to a home. Spending a little time with tools gets me away from an otherwise sedentary life, as much as it can be with a herd of 23-goats that get out when someone I know forgets and leaves a gate open...which is how Sunday wrapped up, LOL.
I've been sketching out plans for an addition between the house and the shop/office which would be along the lines of an old railroad caboose. I've been eyeing a few that can be found around the net, but after reading the story of moving a few (here's a good link about putting multiple cabooses in place as guest lodging) I've decided that I don't really need to buy a caboose complete with trucks (wheel assemblies) that weigh a couple of tons and which would serve no purpose but "looks" if shipped to the ranch and installed.
On the other hand, if I cobble up my own building that is approximately 'caboose style' I can get much closer to exactly what I want and way cheaper than the authentic approach.
This is a long-range kinda thing, but the visual elements of a caboose are pretty simple: A raised section in the middle with windows for viewing while reading and what-have-you, an open platform at either end, and a few brake-looking wheels, steps that don't go down to the ground - stuff that can be welded up pretty easily.
Not sure how I got to thinking about building a caboose...maybe it's because most of what I've done around the house has been so damn conventional. Or, maybe it's because I bought a small woodstove that I was going to put in the shop and then discovered that there are too many tools (and not enough storage) and by the time I got proper fire clearance around the stove, it would eat up too much shop space. So yeah, maybe the stove is driving it. --- My point is what? Building decks and additions onto a home is not only fun, but it can significantly add to the value of a home, not to mention the satisfaction of doing the job yourself. When people ask me "What should I do with my 401(k) money?" my first answer is "Before youi think about more paper assets, what about tangible stuff?"
I figure the caboose project will come in at about $25-$30 per square foot in materials. Remember, I cam building a 400 square foot deck for about $800 and a caboose (or house) is nothing more than a deck with sidewalls, a roof, some windows, insulation and wiring added. When I get around to this one, I'll keep you posted on what I put into it, but I will be surprised if it goes even to $25 since the sidewalls and roofing is pretty cheap. Want a concrete foundation? Well, that'll cost you. Plumbing? That, too. --- Not everyone wants to build decks, frame up walls, wrestle with fiberglass insulation (a job created in hell, I'm convinced). But if you are likely to be able to hold onto your home, seems to me that putting money in gardens, greenhouses, or simply more square-footage of living space so a few more relatives can come visit, why that's as safe an investment as plowing money into more paper. Treated 2-by-6's just intuitively seems like they would weather better than paper.
Besides, for those items you might not be comfortable with, you can always sub parts of the job out and make some work for someone...a good thing to do here lately. And it all adds to your personal worth at several levels.
Hardly a News Flash There's a decent Reuters report today that suggests that you should "Stay slim to save the planet."
OK, I'll bite (sorry, just had to say it...) What's the core finding? Overweight people tend to drive more and therefore use more energy, not to mention eating more requires more energy and such.
Aye, Candy... I suppose it's terribly out of vogue for a man to admire a fine-looking woman, but such are the burdens of being a straight male, so here goes. Check out the new Miss USA. Looking, just looking...don't get all upset about it.
Scott Stevens Show Finally! Scott Steven's got his radio show http://www.radioamerikanow.com/ launched on Saturday night with Cliff and me on. Reader feedback?
Speaking of things to come and all...did you catch this report on how the fossil record seems to show that sea levels can shift suddenly? Not an issue for a month or two, LOL, but worth reading...
And don't forget that Lake Titicaca by some scholars was once at sea level. Rose from sea level to its present elevation (12,500 ft) by some estimates in 3 weeks, others in three days. Up elevator, anyone? If the down button is pressed in your area, remember to have a boat, water wings, and flippers...and be ready for a long swim.
Pay Attn! Reader writes:
Did you NOT read this site in December and January? Did I, or did I not say "Rally into early summer" and "I am long commodities now" and then TSHTF in fall (again) and circle Oct. 26 and two weeks thereafter? OMG, please take notes so I don't have to sound repetitious!
Before the chart, a little background: Once upon a time, a long while ago, I observed during my quest for 'truth' in economics, that the PowersThatBe, the talking heads on the teeve, and the other information sources that actively engage in the programming of humans not to think, had conveniently swept several trillions of dollars that disappeared in the Internet Bubble's bursting (since spring 2000) under the rug. Surely, it wasn't unnoticed by the thousands of people who called brokers and said "Where is my money?" "Gone, but hang in there as you're a long term investor!" was about all they heard back.
So one of our charts for Peoplenomics subscribers oughta be widely circulated - it shows that if you line up the peak of the Dow in January 2000 with the peak in early September of 1929, we're on a very very close replay track. Much closer than even the chart shows if you were to back out inflation, and put in the effects of 1929 deflation, but that'd be real work, and I'm sort of lazy if the truth be told.
No, it's not a perfect replay of 1929, but history doesn't repeat exactly, it only rhymes. So think of this as the rhymes and the crimes chart:
"George, that's only a coincidence!" your monkey-mind will protest.
Why sure it is...you bet. A 9½ year long coincidence...yessir....just a coincidence, I'm sure...
Write when you get rich,
George Ure, The People's Economist |
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". Goes on my reading list...and #3 in books at Amazon but
won't even ship until September 15. That's writer star
power for you. Damn, I gotta finish up my novel...
) has shown.
