" and
savoring concepts like this one:
that "...examines a subject often ignored. Over
150,000,000 people were killed in the 20th century, not in wars,
but by their own governments. Genocidal purges by statist
and totalitarian regime claimed lives of their own citizens,
more noted were under Stalin, Hitler, and Mao in China.
Could this trend continue in America?" wonders writer Frank
Meyer.-
Screening for Swine-Origin Influenza A (H1N1) by State and Local Health Departments, Hospitals, and Clinicians in Regions with Few or no Reported Cases of Swine Influenza A (H1N1) Apr 29, 2009, 12:30 PM ET
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Specimen Collection, Processing, and Testing for Patients with Suspected Infection Apr 29, 2009, 2:30 AM ET
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Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) of Medical Products and Devices Apr 29, 2009, 1:45 AM ET
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Guidance for Clinicians on Identifying and Caring for Patients Apr 29, 2009, 12:00 AM ET
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Published Monday - Friday about 8 AM Central Time Except Holidays....many major typos are fixed by 8:30 daily
Saturday May
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07:40 CDT
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Precise Thinking Dept: Meantime, Back in the Depression In case you're still skeptical of my assertion that the US is in a replay of the first Great Depression and is presently in the grips of Depression #2, I'd offer as confirmation the report from the FDIC that three more banks failed this week.
Something that slapped me 'upside the head' this morning while discussing this with Zeus the Cat: when people talk about the bank failures of the 1930's Depression, I seem to recall that branch banking was not as highly developed an art form as it is today, so I've decided to do a little analysis of this for Peoplenomics subscribers (in addition to the piece on computational democracy) this weekend.
But just to show you what I mean, a check of the FDIC press releases reveals that that a lot more 'banking surface' was closed that just saying "three banks closed this week".
For example, America West Bank in Utah, we read in the government's press release had three offices.
I'll admit that Citizens Community in New Jersey was a single office operation. But, on the other hand, Silverton Bank National Association had six offices and had 1,400 client banks in 44 states.
Add up the number of bank branches and we find that 10 offices closed this week, which in case you're thinking "Gee, ten banking centers closing sounds a lot more grim than 3 banks closing, doesn't it.
Not to put too fine a point on it, but if this (admitted too small to be meaningful) sample reveals that an average of 3.33 office per closing has been taking place, then the 32 "bank closings" so far this year might imply something like 106 offices closing down this year, we could be on track to see more than 300 bank offices close this year. But wait! How do we calculate the equivalency of ATM's closing to bank closings in the Depression? Moreover, what's the equivalent of online banking sessions...they are after all bank faces right? Things you do online now had an analog (in some cases) in the 1930's - it's just that you'd have gone physically into the bank to do them.
Granted, that doesn't come near the 9,000 banks that had failed in 1932-1933 in the first Depression, I'd argue that at least several of the super banks of today which have gone to the federal teat to stay alive would have closed or failed without government intervention. In which case, at least from where I sit, it sure looks like a rhyme off the 1930's event.
Is my assertion wrong? As a taxpayer, how do you feel about the possibility of another $10-billion going to Citi? That'd be (at one point) 1,400 branches and 3,800 ATMs and Lord knows how many ATM's. And what about those 1,400 client banks of Silverton?
Now you know why some of these banks are too big to fail? Because it would confirm the second depression so instead, we'll just print up some more 'assets' for 'em.
Next time someone says "This isn't another Depression because not too many banks have failed by comparison..." look 'em in the eye and ask "How many billions do we have to fork over from the public coffers to count as a bank failure?"
Not a Plague of Locusts, but.... In Australia, a mouse infestation in a nursing home sounds like a Stephen King novel. Quick - call Willard!
Drifting Flu Mortality Rates The latest out this morning from the World Health Organization causes me a bit more concern over hybrid flu:
Following the same methodology I used earlier this week --- namely Total flu cases, less flu cases with no deaths divided into total deaths to get a mortality rate --- today's calculation shows:
Totals deaths: 16 ________divided by____ Total Cases: 615 Less 0 dead: - 77 subtotal: 538____ Mortality Rate: 2.974%
Much better than yesterday's 3.77% calculated the same way. The problem, of course, is that there are a whole slew of variables to be considered in trying to make an intelligent estimate of how serious the flu is and could become. Among these:
Troubling stuff, to be sure. So far (as of Saturday morning) New York had 50 cases while Texas had 28, but still only one death, and that was a child brought to the US from Mexico for treatment.
Speaking of which - there go the Cinco De Mayo celebration plans for Queens (which is in NYC in case you live under a rock).
Oh, and with 400 schools closed, don'tcha think this argues in favor of home schooling online?
Flu Preps Continued... A reader asked me to address this:
No, I was not kidding. I have an allergy to certain kinds of egg concoctions, some sulfa-type drugs, peanut butter and so forth. Consequently, I've obtained a note from my doctor that states that I am allergic, subject to anaphylactic shock and am not to take a flu shot under any circumstances. In addition, many 'vaccinations' have been linked to both severe allergic reactions and to autism, when a mercury-based preservative, thiomersal is used as a vaccine preservative.
I am planning to make a 1/2 size copy of my doctor note and keep it in my wallet. I am perfectly willing to be quarantined for up to one year on our own property; which is my preferred option.
Here in Texas, there is supposed to be an opt-out of vaccination for egg allergies, but unless you have a letter from your doctor that opts you out for a legit medical condition (as I have) then you're likely to be given the injection anyway, if I read the Texas plan right. Moreover, depending on how the mass vaccination plans are rolled out, no telling what over-sealous needle stickers will be doing and I don't think there'd be an opportunity to argue "Let me run home and get my note from my doctor..." Which is why a copy goes in the wallet.
Whether you will have that opportunity may depend on where you live. Obviously, if you live in an apartment and use shared laundry facilities, it may be difficult to quarantine. How vaccinations and quarantines are handled varies a fair bit by state. The www.pandemicflu.gov web site has a listing of all state pandemic plans so the first thing you might want to do is click here, look up your state and then read the whole plan and see how you'll cope with some of the things outlined.
Another thing to do is read up on the side effects of antiviral agents such as Tamiflu. The company website write up doesn't seem too bad, but there are other sites which ascribe many risks to taking serious antivirals.
Power Trippin' No shortage of self esteem in the head of Italy's prime minister Silvio Berlusconi now that I'm reading headlines like "Berlusconi says he world's most popular leader..." Say, if he's so hot, how come I can't find his CD series over at Nightengale-Conant, huh?
Must Be Present to Win Department Reverend Jesse "Jackson sued over no-show" headlines "The .Smoking Gun" and then they subhead: "Lawsuit: Despite $75,000 fee, private jet, reverend skipped speech".
Ire-Rack Think things are chilling in Iraq? Not when headlines like "April deadliest month for US in Iraq in 7 months" are coming in.
Say, you don't remember someone talking about change, do you? Been a hundred and how many days now?
My Son: The Marketing Genius Oh boy. The nut doesn't fall far from the tree, as they say. My son, ever willing to help a damsel in distress is helping a young woman in the Seattle area sell her 30" LCD TV. Seems - as I look at the pictures - that my son has figured out what really sells in America... Oh to be 29 again, LOL.
Weekend At the Ranch Just a nice relaxing weekend ahead: Barely 7:40 and I'm already tired. Have to put in 28 more 4 by 4 posts in order to finish framing up the new 20 X 20' deck. Going slower than expected. Then the yard needs mowing, which I can burn through in just three hours if I run the riding mower at full-tilt boogie speed - Texas-sized lawns take time. Then there's 1,8,00 feet of electric fencing that needs to be weed-whacked. A couple of Peoplenomics subscribers have forgotten their logon info, this week's report needs to be finished, and the weather is getting warm enough that I need to move around some of the wiring on the solar power system's grid-tied inverter so I can get the cooling fan going.
Thinking about sneaking down to Lowes to get a roll-around chop saw so I don't have to lug 4 by 4's back and forth to the shop for cutting on the fixed-position miter saw there...and then there's the National Bank of Dad that needs to send help to one of the kids. Yup, just another weekend of nothing to do.
So while I relax, ya'll have a fine weekend and I'll see you Monday morning about 8 AM Central time with a fresh (but in all likelihood still cynical) view of things economic and whatever...
Zeus the Cat is asking to write next Saturday's column and maybe I oughta let him. Says he's gotten a lot of fan mail at his gmail account and wants to post some pictures of himself. Seems my cat has an exceptionally high opinion of himself.
Wonder if he wants to be the next prime minister of Italy?
Peoplenomics 10XCSN Redux, Best Depression Businesses, and Pandemic Preps Readers of the (free) www.urbansurvival.com site have been pondering the meaning of 10XCSN since I first mentioned it in early October 2008. In this week's report subscribers get to see what that was all about plus a little more insight into the web bot project. From there, we move on to assessing economic impacts of a massive pandemic, and we'll finish up this week's report with a discussion of how to find a good business to be in during this Second Depression. Mask up, glove up, pick a bale of cotton - it's time to rock & roll...
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"Live on $10,000" Updated What? You haven't ordered the ebook "How to Live on $10,000 a year -- or less"? Suit yourself. We're all going to live it shortly, anyway. I just thought you might like a heads up by reading about how to do it before you get pink-slipped. But, suit yourself OR visit www.liveontenthousand.com or, click one of the following button:
Yep - still possible. I also took a bit of additional material that was pertinent from recent issues of Peoplenomics and included them. The whole thing runs about 65 pages, but it gives you a vision of how to not only live on the aforementioned dollar amount, but also how to migrate up the economic foodchain if you make a little more than that and do some active savings... Click here for the page with more details on it. ---- Last week's report is here. For back issues of this site, click here. (Goes back to 1997!)
Friday May 1, 2009 Flu Fractions The number of flu cases reported by the WHO has been updated:
Two words to be very precise with in your thinking include morbidity which is the relative incidence of a disease, while the other is mortality which is the death rate. Elsewhere, we read that the flu - which the WHO is officially calling 'influenza A now - is 10. That 10 over 331 pencils to a 3.02% death rate internationally, however if we back out the countries with no deaths, the number turns to 265 and 10 death in that population puts the mortality rate at 3.77%. That would put the mortality rate about on par with the 1918 Spanish Flu where the mortality rate...
Meantime, I'm hearing from sources in Asia - which putting on a mask is perfectly acceptable - and encouraged at the slightest sign of symptoms, that the North American flu (turned influenza A) is being considered by many doctors to be an engineered virus, although I think the jury is still out on that. Our friendly local consulting PhD microbiologist sent Cliff & me a heads up on Thursday:
And with much thanks, we now do. Oh, and about reports from Asia? The Chinese are reporting today that "Mexican Health officials optimistic that flu outbreak has slowed down," but that leaves me thinking about three possibilities: The first is that we could simply be in an incubation period with more deaths to follow in which case the death numbers would be rising between now and Monday. OIn the other hand, if the flu has somehow really been contained, which doesn't sound right intuitively, then the death rate will fall.
The third possibility is a little darker: If it's a weaponized base that got loose, then it should have a burn-out rate that's pretty high - that's what you look for in weaponized platforms, just x generations of propagation.
Word that a "Company wanted officials of flu 18 days before alert was issued" should scare the hell out of you...
And that gets us to our Friday cartoon from Rebecca Price of www.toon-republic.com:
Why We Have Perpetual Wars? An interesting set of "Long Term Contribution Trends" from the defense industry is reported over at the Open Secrets web site. Dovetails neatly with 'wag the economy" don'tcha think?
Changes at Court Word that Supreme Court Justice David Souter is planning to retire after almost 20-years on the highest bench mean the Obama administration will get to pick a replacement. This ought to really bring the agenda of the current administration into focus. One more filter to add to my spam manager.
--- Snip and Save Section ---
Coping: Attack on Royalty Although looking after the health of royalty may not be your thing when you read headlines, around here it's something that's always on the back burner, especially since some would argue, how America gets along with royalty is important. To be sure, there are some conspiracists (note I didn't say theorists) who claim that royalty really runs America, despite our pretense of republican (not republicorp) democracy. And yeah, I'll grant you that the bows (that 'weren't) of president Obama to the queen and a sheik do boost that case.
Instead, I'll just watch peripheral events involving the royals. For instance, a Dutch fellow drove his car toward the bus of queen Beatrix of the Dutch royal sect on Thursday. In that attack, five died and a dozen people were injured. Not that the story will get much play in the American MSM (MainStreamMedia) which is controlled, arguably by its own set of royals, but I can help but notice that the claimed attacker died of his injuries overnight...and that has me thinking...
While reports are that the 'motive for the attack was unclear, I can't help but wonder if this isn't a skirmish in that Up/Down battle; part of that global revolution/rebellion meme I keep referring to - since it's part of the linguistics about what's ahead for the global politically. --- Watching the royals is a kind of sport, especially in the UK where people are not 'citizens' - they are 'subjects of the crown'. A little more direct way of saying owned by the PowersThatBe; although when you think about it, the bankster class in America is closely akin, if not a rebrand or clone of the royals franchise.
As May Day gets underway were, we can read where prince Charles got an eyeful at what's described as a 'raunchy dance show in Berlin last night, and while that seems 'cute' enough and entertaining and all, underlying it all is a clear ongoing programmed 'respect' for the power of royalty. Everything from Brits standing on soap boxes so as not to be standing on the 'queens lands' when they make speeches critical of their government to the even more obvious.
Most people don't think deeply, or at the symbological level, yet when I see stories with headlines like "Valve and Activision clash in royalties battle" I'm reminded that the concept of royalty is ever so deeply ingrained in our thinking as to be hard to root out.
I don't know about you, but here in George Land, all souls weigh the same and I'd just as soon our president didn't go around head-bobbing as much as he does. If there's really to be 'change' out of this administration, it'd be nice, as I see it, if our president didn't go around bowing down to folks who are at best only equals under our system of government. The alternative is what? That we're really not all equal. But then, where's the change in that? --- This being May Day, the short discussion of royalty seems in order, since any discussion of royalty has to include a short discourse in the nature of raw power. For example, May Day was really popularized by the former Soviet Union, which used to take May Day as occasion to roll out their latest - and most intimidating instruments of power. As the Rutland Herald (Vermont) notes, there will be honoring of National Guard troops deploying to Afghanistan today when folks go marching in the Loyal Day parade - an event which was invented as a sort of Western response to the Russian May Day hype.
And old habits die hard. In Cuba, there are plenty of May Day activities planned, although as the Florida Sun-Sentinel reports, "Few Cubans look to the revolutionary calendar for signs of change."
No, I'm not an anarchist - more a small government, genuine equal rights and responsible capitalist would be a fair description - but I have noticed that most revolutions don't stay revolutionary for very long. Once in power, most - and Cuba's a dandy example - start up programs and undertake social actions that are less geared toward change and more geared toward ensuring the perpetuity of their own brand of new royals; it's a pattern I see in many other countries, such as Venezuela.
I
wish I didn't have as much on my calendar. Outlook says I
don't have a moment's free time for several weeks. If I did, you can bet I'd be rereading my tattered copy of "Oriental Despotism: A Comparative Study of Total Power
Unfortunately, Outlook says I have other plans. But I did make an important note: In the next lifetime, I think I'll come back a little further up the pyramid of power. This life is nice and all, but as long as the guillotines aren't being sharpened up by the masses, it'd be a fine day to do some basking; dangers of taking the family out shopping aside. Besides, even if I were to go shopping in such a hypothetical lifetime, I wouldn't be going for jewels and fancy duds. I've learnt enough to include a stop at the local gun shop since it's a fine line between May Day and mayday. And royalty must be precise in its thinking about such things.
So You Want to Go Solar, Huh? Reader asks:
Two questions - both answered in Peoplenomics issue #362 of August 10, 2008 "Robust Home Power." . Here are some pertinent extracts - starting with system design:
As to my personal shopping list (updated)
I tend to buy things like parking space for my amp-hours on a cost per amp-hour basis, and so by the same token, I also tend to buy solar panels by cost-per-watt of output. By the way, don't know if the Sharp $175 panels are still available, but the Solar Home web site is showing (as of this morning) that Mitsubishi 170-watt panels can be had for $865.99 per panel, which works out to $5.09 per watt. That's just a dad over the $4.999 per watt I paid for the Sharps last year. They sell Evergreen 195's for $1,429.28, but that works out to $7.33 per watt.
BTW, if you go with panels, it's not precisely cost per watt because you need to consider more panel support space, connectors, and wiring/screw around time involved with putting in more of smaller panels. For my money, the 170-200 watt class panels seem to be the best mix, but there are no absolutes in any of this. Yes, if anyone asked, UrbanSurvival and Peoplenomics really are solar powered...but ain't no big thing.
Until the power goes out, in which case the system is sized to handle a full day of operation with zero sunlight including satellite up and downlink, wireless routers, PC's and multiple monitors, plus a small A/C unit. (Pappy didn't raise no fool...)
Key concept: Balance! If you have 2 KW of source, you need something more than 2 KW of controllers. And you can hang a 2 KW (or somewhat larger) inverter on that. And then you need to plan 3-4 KWHRs of battery for each operating hour you plan in the battery only mode.
Yes, it just so happens that I do know a bit about DC systems design (go look through the inventor names on this patent, or this one, just for an example, LOL), I do things besides study money & management)
Hope this helps? More in that back Peoplenomics issue... --- Send snip and save items to george@ure.net --- end snip and save section ---
Thursday April 30, 2009 Not To Say "I Told You So..." "Told you so!" - and way back in December when I said that I'd expect a decline for the first couple of months of the year, but then a move up from there through early Summer of '09 and with the gains in the markets the past couple of days - not to mention some nice green on the futures this morning -100 points up or so -- - there's a good chance that the longer-term outlook will turn out to be largely correct. Not that this is investment advice - it ain't - and not that it's been without stress.
For example a couple of weeks back I told subscribers to Peoplenomics that the area where we actually break through what had been downside trend channels would turn me into a 'cowardly bull'. But look quick, Ma - I'm over that little bit of fear. Most years, the largest gains and safest bets are to go long after Easter and then take off your winnings in mid to late May. I don't make large bets against the House.
It's also not surprising to see lots of news items popping up that support the bullish case. Besides the Fed meeting - a non-event except that it wasn't are outright gloomy as past outlooks - there have also been a number of stories out that argue there's actually something of a bounce in real estate markets shaping up. Take for example this PRWeb news release that crossed my desk this morning:
While I usually don't print big chunks of press releases, this one seemed like a pretty decent summary of some of the positive forces that are starting to back-up the bullish case.
Would I personally buy real estate now? Nope. Only if it was farm land or had some ag use. Otherwise, still reason to be cautious as the Dickens...
Why? Phoenix, for example, says the Phoenix Business Journal, "...leads nation in home price declines in February." Home prices have been halved. Wait! Did I hear someone question my assertion that this is the Second Depression?
Despite my very short-term optimism about the markets, they could turn down any time since we are, by my reckoning, really in the Second Depression. Evidence of that was obvious in yesterday's GDP report, but the thing to keep an eye on are the reports that point to cities where the local unemployment rate is higher than it was during the first Depression. And still climbing, or are you in denial about that one, too?
Again, we're in a period of disconnectedness where outfits like Goldman Sachs are are noting in their "Global Economics Weekly" that some of the global imbalances are improving, which might be so but at the same time, the auto industry is headed for the rocks and housing prices may, or may not, be nearing a bottom. And one of my trader friend says the % of S&P stocks above the 50 day moving average looks 'toppy' to him. --- So are we out of the woods yet? Hell no. We won't be until we get past the other side of 2012 - and even then there's some stuff out on the other side of that event which is problematic. But at least for the next half month to two months, with caution just after May 18 and again in mid July, seems the long side of the market is promising; subject to the normal disclaimers and assuming the hybrid flu scare only escalates for another week, or two, and then as was the case with the Spanish flu of 1918, makes its decline/fake-out to the downside until it returns with a vengeance in September.
The most useful new tool of the day? Slate has come out with an interactive job loss map that shows who's gaining and loosing in 3,100 counties nationwide. Gotta love Slate.
Personal Incomes Before we get into this too deeply, remember the report earlier this week that said the advance GDP report showed the economy shrank in Q1 at a 6.1% annualized rate? Logically, if the economy is pulling in its horns dropping at a 6.1% annual rate then what would you expect personal incomes and expenditures to be doing?
The government's fine sense of humor is alive & kickin': The knee-slapper in the report?
ROFLMAO... Oh, boy, they can sure tell 'em, can't they?
Maybe the folks under the overpasses are saving so much money by
not having a house payment that they can save 4%!
Yeah...that's gotta be it. Pass the crack pipe, wouldjah?
Self medicating seems in order before we get to the medical
stuff... Flu Still Rising While we wait for the first 'crest' of the hybrid flu wave, there is still the case to be made that economic impacts could mount up on that front. For openers, the WHO has raised its pandemic alert status to phase 5, which means - if you remember the chart from earlier this week - that the flu is likely to go global. But even Chan said:
As I posted in a special mid-day update on Wednesday, the CDC is reporting 91 cases in the USA and one death so far - a child brought to the US for treatment. One Marine ion southern California has been tested positive for swine flu and 30 Marines at the TwentyNine Palms base have been quarantined. That will likely be in the count to be released later today by the CDC in their flu update about mid day.
I'll continue calling this hybrid flu even through reports say the "Mexico outbreak traced to 'mature lagoons' at pig farm" there's debate over whether there is actual swine flu at the heart of this outbreak. --- The reaction worldwide is in some cases becoming extreme. Egypt, for example has ordered the killing of all pigs. Farmers are reported rioting there as a result.
In the UK, every home can be expecting a government flu pandemic leaflet in the mail. --- The key thing about the flu, as I see it, is this: A lot of people are not yet taking this now Phase 5 Pandemic seriously. I'd urge you to visit the CDC's Pandemic Flu site and pay particular attention to the preparation checklists on this page (link).
With France asking the EU to stop flights to Mexico, I'm expecting that before the year is out, that we will see all kinds of 'restrictions on travel' since that has been an extremely long-term building portion of predictive linguistics modelspace and we've learned from 8+ years of tinkering that the longer a concept hangs around in modelspace, the larger the appearance works out in 'real' everyday life when events show up. Oh sure, there has been plenty of 'restriction on travel' ever since before the events of 9/11, but it's just never really gone away.
Going over the individual and family preps checklist I couldn't help but notice that I don't have the granola bars or the anti-diarrheal medications...so that goes into our next shopping run. Yeah, I know that there's a huge debate about high fructose corn syrup, but doggone it, there's something comforting about ginger ale...maybe Jones Soda could come out with an all-cane sweetened version of ginger ale again? Seems like they had it in Canada for a while and retired it...oh well...guess I'll have to do without. Chicken soup, then?
Perspective point: CNN reports "Regular flu has killed thousands since January" so being ready could be more than an academic exercise.
Who Was that Masked Man? Yet another predictive linguistics hit on "designer flu masks", not that its particularly comforting to know this kind of thing is coming in advance.
Global Coastal Event Another linguistic we're waiting to make a much larger appearance in June oir so is percolating along in the background - it's the global coastal event. I haven't mentioned this for a while, but the reports about changing rise rates (March of this year) set a 90-day (or so) temporal marker for awareness and focus on odd things going on with ocean levels. Sure enough, the story this week that "Rising seas threaten renowned French coast" fit right into the scheme of things.
I trust you're hip to the report that "Huge ice chunks break away from Antarctic Shelf"? Ice that's already in the water, of course, won't raise sea levels. BUT the ice in the water that holds back ice on land that could slide into the water is the kind of scenario that could raise sea levels worldwide - if it all happened at once - something like 184 feet according to an old USGS study.
Remember when I moved to Texas (Jan 2003) one of my criteria for buying the ranch was what? Elevation of 600' plus 200 miles of buzzer zone between us and the coast. This has been in the linguistics data for YEARS which means when it happens it will be BIG. Global pandemic doesn't mean squat by comparison. But hey, don't let that ruin your day. --- Calling 2009 the "Year of Transformation" has been a pretty good call by our friends with the rickety time machine. Flu, global coastal event, the middle east mess to come this fall, and be sure to keep an eye the stories that North Korea "threatens nuclear, missile tests" for hints to what follows that. Dandy year, huh? --- Speaking of Iran (middle east stuff) you saw the 5.5 quake in SE Iran this morning?
100 Days? President Obama last night did his "100 days" speech. Maybe I've been reading too many linguistics books, but 'remaking' sounds a little grandiose to me...Best I can figure, sending more troops to Afghanistan, borrowing bushel baskets of paper to prop up banks (and the odd insurance company) doesn't sound much like 'change' to me. Wasn't that what Bushco was turned out for? Call me skeptical, but I'll just sit back and watch a bit more, thanks. Call me when we don't need food banks.
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Coping: Bye Bye Chrysler Bankruptcy looms for Chrysler, although the administration is sure hoping that something can be worked out. --- Us? Elaine & I keep wondering about what kind of car to get, but after owning Fiat and then having them blow North America in '85, or so, and since our Daewoo got left high & dry when they blew out of the N.A. market, and seeing as my neighbor across the road bought a Pontiac SUV and now that brand is toast...I think we'll just keep the 'Woo running a while longer till we figure out which auto companies are going to be left standing. --- Made a supply run into the big city (Palestine, Texas, population under 20,000) and dropped by the local auto parts stores. Synthetic oil for the red car (it runs Royal Purple 20/50) and popped a new serpentine belt on the pickup ($22).
Hint about belts: If you don't have the special belt-tensioner tool, AutoZone is real nice about letting folks borrow tools and do surgery in their parking lot. Only takes about 5-minutes to change out the belt - so $22 versus three times that at the dealer....is that a simple choice, or what?
Microsoft Marketing Lemme see: flu outbreak, global coastal events pending, plus the usual assortment of disasters worldwide. What timing for Microsoft to start rolling out it's new social networking monster "Vine". Some are calling it "Twitter for emergencies" but it's more as explained in the company fact sheet.
I won't ask how it works if the whole 'net goes down...
Gun Laws, Profits, and Prospects Action is pending here in Texas on a bill which would exempt Texas-made firearms from federal regulations. I expect a Supreme Court showdown when the Montana law (similar) goes into effect this fall. --- Speaking of guns and such, you see where "Olin profit up on ammunition earnings"? --- No,
I am NOT a 'gun nut'...still I can read and when I see
articles like "Real Killers in America: Where to Guns Rank?" in
the latest issue of Republic Magazine (www.republicmagazine.com)
makes an interesting note of the book
Death by Government
What Bugs Us? Reader is asking:
Yep, bug time here, too. We put about 6 inches in the rain gauge over the past week (not that 6 inches, you perv!) and that means mosquitoes will be hatching out here, too. So yes, it's time to move Happy Hour to the screen porch. I'm not so much worried about the flu being spread by 'squitos so much as West Nile which is still around...
Wednesday April 29, 2009 Fed Statement A non-event:
Nope, no surprises here.
Special Update: Flu Response Gets Traction The response to the hybrid flu is beginning to ramp up even as the latest flu count has been released by the CDC
c
In addition clinicians are being given additional guidance on: In addition to the CDC's work, I've also been looking at clinical guidance being turned out by many state health departments as well, so the health care community is now starting to get aggressive. You may want to frequently check the Google Maps (Swine but really Hybrid) Flu Tracker here. Last, but certainly not least, not a bad call on "fashion masks called for in the predictive linguistics a while back," said one reader who pointed use to an article called "Swine flu fashion: People decorate their face masks in a bid to stay positive" in the British press. Oh that British send of humor, eh? With what passes as genuine good news on the flu front, the spring rally seems to be gathering up a fresh head of steam as the Dow is up nearly 200 points as we go to bits.... First Hybrid Flu Death First, an update from a pretty good source about what's 'hot' on the flu front this morning:
Meantime, maybe someone was actually paying attention yesterday when I bemoaned the lack of precision when it comes to the hybrid flu that's making the rounds. Not only is the World Health Organization calling this outbreak the 'North American Flu' but I see where "U.S. officials want 'swine' out of flu name" as well.
I continue to be perplexed by a couple of points: The first is "Where the treatment protocol?" and the second is "What are the over-the-counter/OTC options?" for the millions of Americans who either don't have healthcare, or figure they would face more risk by going to a hospital than by self medicating and staying at home.
One the question of treatment protocols, it turns out that they really do exist...well...sort of.
For example, a quick search of pandemic flu treatment protocols brings up a US Department of Transportation study "Preparing for Pandemic Influenza" but it's focus is not on the doctor/PA level practitioner trying to respond to a sick patient, so much as it's a guide for 9-1-1 centers to develop dispatch protocols for Personnel and Public Safety Answering Points (PSAPs).
Similarly, the Homeland Security "Best Practices and Model Protocols" document of April 2007 does a fine job of sorting out who should respond how at an agency/sector level but darned if it gets into the diagnostic tree and efficacy studies.
I haven't had time to do an exhaustive search, but after spending a fit of time on the phone with a doc I know, his point that the practitioner-level/treatment recommendations really ought to be more readily available. His view went something like this: "OK, so I have someone show up in my office and they've got a 102 degree temp, they're barfing their guts out, sniffling and hacking...what's the current best course for proper diagnosis and treatment based on the most current cases which CDC and WHO have in this episode?"
To be sure, the WHO has some generalized information on their web site if you scroll to "Treatment and Prophylaxis: Antiviral Agents, but it's not a detailed diagnostic flow chart by any stretch. What this particular doc is looking for is the whole tree, contraindications and a drug-by-drug summary. You know, the kind of thing that would say use this antiviral but only if the patient doesn't have the following conditions, kind of thing, along with a batting average or best SWAG based on these similar modeled responses.
Would you be happy with the flu response plan for Tonga down in the South Pacific? That's easier to come by. But enough of that...on to the next point.
How this flu kills is interesting. Seems that it triggers an over-reaction by the body's immune system in a process called cytokine storming. Here's a contributed article by Spencer Feldman, this is NOT PRESENTED AS MEDICAL ADVICE AND IS FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY and remember as you read this, that it was prepared for bird flu not the hybrid which is currently in play. That said, it may offer some perspectives on how the flu operates and let me say this one more time: THIS IS NOT MEDICAL ADVICE - FOR THAT SEE YOUR DOCTOR! Got it? :
Again, THIS IS NOT MEDICAL ADVICE AND IS OFFERED ONLY FOR INFORMATION. FOR MEDICAL ADVICE SEE YOUR DOCTOR.
I'll continue watching developments, but I'd summarize where we are this morning as follows:
In terms of the markets, the combination of incipient inflation due to the high cost of bailouts (glue to hold the financial system together, when you think about it) and the added impacts of ratcheting up travel restrictions due to flu are likely to combine to cloud our earlier outlook for a rally through mid summer.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis is out with some sobering news about the advance Q1 Gross Domestic Product - dropping at an annualized 6.1% rate:
If you've been reading UrbanSurvival for any length of time, you know that the vision for coming months is a sort of hyper-stagflation where prices of things you really need (like food and energy) seem destined to go through the roof on the one hand, while less necessary items could remain in free fall mode. It's what happens when consumers stop deeply into debt to maintain a 'borrowed' lifestyle. So be watching the Federal Reserves Consumer Debt Reports (consumer 'credit') for hints of what's to come. Next one is due out about May 7th.
BofA Funding Some of the preliminary 'stress test' results are coming out here and there, and not surprisingly, the word is that BofA may have to raise some dough. And how much dough, would that be, you're wondering? One group pencils it to $70-billion. --- Wonder if you get a free toaster with that...
Another Political Specter Pennsylvania's Arlen Specter has jumped the
republicorp ranks to throw in with the democorps. As I
see it, this is just the latest marketing ploy (or distraction)
to keep the folks at the top of the concentration of wealth
pyramid from seeing any erosion of their power. Keep the
sheeple distracted with right/left politics and the up/down
reality fades into obscurity.
Flying Spectacle Speaking of spectacles, lemme see: Large 747 and a military jet fly 'low and slow' over Ground Zero and the Statue of Memory in NYC and folks aren't supposed to panic? Yeah, right. So as I told you yesterday under the headline 'Psy Ops?" turns out that according to an "FAA Memo: Feds knew NYC flyover would cause panic". Gee, really? --- Youngest daughter Allison called from Seattle last evening to report John Stewart's great line: "Haven't these people heard of PhotoShop?" Need it to be HD film, you argue? You mean like DreamWorks or Industrial Light & Magic couldn't do it with a smaller carbon footprint? I must be sliding across some digital boundary to be thinking this way...George Virtualized or some such. Hit me...
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Coping: With Endless Software Updates Not often I get out the soap box and go off on software companies...and (this may come as a shock) I'm not about to do that here. The reason? In the ongoing battle between software companies on the one hand, and hackers & phishers on the other, the software companies are the guys with the white hats on.
That said, it sometimes seems like the battle keeps going to higher and higher levels of involvement. Why, I must be getting old - since I can remember the earliest days of network (and even pre-network) computing. You know: Back in the days when the machines made direct hardware calls, and operating system, let alone a graphical interface that could whip up sandwiches and make crumpets wasn't even a dream yet.
That said, if you have a copy of Adobe Acrobat Reader, you might want to check out the article here and actually do something about their pop-up when it asks if you want to install the new security update instead of clicking the 'don't bug me now' box next time it pops up. --- A couple of readers have asked me what I do for security here and what would I recommend. I'll be putting together a whole "how to get your PC skookum" page - including what I use for antivirus, cookie control, and so forth. May have it up in the next couple of days.
My friends at Maxa-tools.com are working on a product upgrade (a month or two out) that will alert a user to any outbound connection such that even if you were to get a virus, the process of making the outbound connection would pop up as a "Sure you want to do this?" pop-up.
A surprising number of people think that cookies are just tiny bits of code. But no, from what my (smarter) friends tell me, some of the new Flash super cookies can range up to 5 megabytes in size...and that sure leaves a lot of 'headroom' for malicious code writers. --- Besides going through a checklist of how computers here are maintained, I might also put up a report "How to Prepare a new computer..." since most computers come with a huge amount of useless software. When I get a new PC, it usually takes a full day (or two) to get them even close to being ready for what I put them though. Starts with making recovery disks, then stripping out all the 'demo' software that's installed at the factory, doing all the service packs, and then anti-virusing, registry cleaning, Outlook .PST filing moving.. software installation...really, there's a heck of a lot to it...
Manic Media Department Notes like this one from a reader in South Carolina underscore how manic MainStreamMedia (MSM) has become:
Curious as hell. One day we go from world-ending flu concerns and the next day Arlen Specter's party of the week replaces it. Yeah, you should be a bit suspicious... that's why the alternative news media (like this site) are growing....
Another reader offers this:
Spaced Out Humans The report that a "Space explosion is farthest thing ever seen" reminds me the frontiers of the physical world keep getting pushed out a bit at a time. Electron microscopes to go flu-chasing and telescopes to go looking for the secrets of cosmology. Science marches on.
But you know what? Milk is twice the price of gasoline. So how bright are we? I mean really...
Tuesday April 28, 2009 Preppers and Hybrid Flu You may have caught an article here and there over the past year, or so, in mass media about how there was a 'new generation of survivalists" and into that category are dumped people who have stockpiled a bit of food, folks who've gotten water stored, heritage seeds for gardening, and a host of other so-called 'preps' done in advance of what many of us thought would be turbulent times. Well, guess what we're now in? True, those old-fashioned (non-alkaline) batteries for the radiation survey meter might not be called for (at least not till next year, LOL) but since a prepper should already have everything on the www.pandemicflu.gov web site, seems to me that if you have been doing 'prepping' you might want to point out its importance to anyone who's made fun of you in the past.
Most of us who have taken 'prepping' seriously are asking questions that folks in government aren't yet responding to; namely if the Reuters story that this strain of the flu is a genetic mix is correct...how'd it get that way? More importantly, why is the mainstream media (MSM) insisting on calling it "swine" flu when it's either a hybrid flu OR a genetically modified flu? Calling it GM flu is the same number of characters...or does that reveal too much?
Moreover, given that it seems to be an engineered virus where is the federal response in terms of crack detectives who are working back to patient zero to ascertain how & where this was released? Is anyone besides me wondering about the timing of our president being in Mexico at time of the outbreak? Just one 'coincidence' after another in this sequence of events, and I don't like 'coincidences' when they start to pile up.
Then there's the lackadaisical response of the federal government on air travel and border controls. Oh sure, there are some aware humans -- like California Congressman Duncan Hunter, who's from the San Diego area, who is calling for closing the US-Mexican border to all but essential travel, but he's not making any progress on this front yet.
If we were still living on our sailboat, like we were in 2001 in San Diego, either Elaine or I would have popped over the border at the very first whiff of the story Saturday to buy Tamiflu and other niceties to have on hand while the San Ysidro (south of San Diego) crossing was open...but I expect that window's been slammed shut by now.
The track of this outbreak will likely parallel the 1918 Spanish flu outbreak, if the predictive linguistics are right - bigger problems to come from September onward.
Officially, the World Health Organization says the disease is in 'phase 4' as of today:
With all due respect, when I read how there is no proven transmissibility between swine and there is clear evidence that this is a 'hybrid flu' - which would include genetically modified), then why the "World Health Organisation urges tourists to continue with travel plans despite swine flu" just floors me. ---- While my only claim to any knowledge about medicine is limited to being a reporter and having a son who's an EMT, and two daughters who've worked in DNA testing, it doesn't seem like rocket science to have an adaptive pandemic response would have at least two tiers.
The first tier (which the WHO graphic shows) makes perfect sense...provided that a natural reservoir of the disease is apparent and such that transmissibility back to 'patient zero' can be ascertained.
However, what I'd humbly suggest is that a) if there is no documented reservoir in an animal population and b) if there is any indication like, oh, say the low 1 in 100 probability that this hybrid flu is a natural strain, then maybe there oughta be only three phases: Identification and confirmation and then slam closed all international borders, air travel, and implement containment much more aggressively than what's being done under the present WHO response. By failing to have a much more aggressive Phase 4, the WHO plan seems only to ensure that we will get to Phases 5 & 6.
To me, it's a dandy example of linear thinking; that process of applying a Bell Curve ( or if you like statistics, the 'normal distribution') to a situation that is three dimensional. Since a hybrid or designer/GM flu would presumably be designed for higher transmissibility than a 'normal' (natural reservoir) flu, you can see how the normal distribution would call for a different response based on transmissibility factors. In my cobbled up example this morning, track 1 (blue) in the following chart might represent a transmissibility factor of 4, while track 2 would be implied with a transmissibility factor of 10:
Which case is most threatening to humans? Seems obvious to me...but I'm no expert on such matters, so I keep going back to reports - like this one out of Kansas - that refer to this as a 'hybrid flu'.
While the real questions are "Who was Patient Zero" and "What is the human-human transmissibility factor?" the USA's lowest-common-denominator press has show its major league incompetence one again. When I checked this morning Google's news search engine found 58,017y news items with the phrase "swine flu" in it, versus a whopping 22 that use the correct terminology "hybrid flu".
Oh, and the search +transmissibility +flu yielded only 86 returns. This compares with +flu +victims getting 5,821 hits...still more evidence that the press has continued to focus on historical rather than look-ahead or future events. Which seems to me really dumb, since most of us humans can only take actions which are yet to happen. Know what I'm saying? --- Not to get you freaked out, but there's a way to read the predictive linguistics that hints, when read in a certain way, that either the flu itself, or possibly the vaccine, will cause a delayed reaction, such that by fall, we'll all have our hands full taking care of victims; the imagery gong to the idea of an initial onset, then a recovery, and then some months later a relapse involving the brain. Hopefully that'll be an incorrect reading of the linguistics on my part, but worth considering/planning for. --- Speaking of which: A 'prepper' would already have dust or surgical masks on hand, although an article titled "Ubiquitous surgical mask is unmasked as largely ineffective" in today's Pittsburgh Post Gazette is worth reading. As to the effectiveness of masks, my personal take is that a full-face mask with an N-100 filter, although expensive (~$200), that's the most effective thing you could do since most folks don't stop to thing that droplets can get into eyes which in turn are washed away and drain where?
Things you can do today? Here's my "B List":
In short, while we're in this period of adapting to the events, seems the wise thing to do would be to stay focused not on the number of victims, but rather the specific things that you can ACT on right now. In last week's Peoplenomics report I told subscribers to consider my "A List":
Basic Shopping List
The best way to think about the flu I've come up with for us is to envision how you would respond to a major sewage spill...you know...like the kind of response that OSHA summarizes neatly on their web site:
Not to throw rocks at the presently rudderless Department of Health and Human Services Department, but my 2-bits is that OSHA's got their stuff together. Throw in a mask and more rubber gloves, and wipe incoming groceries off with a bleach solution rag and I'd say you've got a good chance doing just fine. Ask your doctor. --- Kansas governor Kathleen Sebelius' nomination to head up HHS oughta just sail through the Senate today.
Just remember to look ahead...not back. The crowd may or may not be able to stay up with us. Being a 'prepper' is only derided by those who aren't thinking ahead.
Psy Op or Stupidity Department The flight of a couple of government planes yesterday over New York City to get some pictures of Air Force One over the Statue of Liberty has a lot of NY'ers asking WTF. Mayor Mike is reportedly seriously ticked off.
Markets & Gold Down seems pretty likely, again, as markets digest flu news.
Gold? Down? Oh sure. But let's talk about why. Some headlines might put you off the scent a bit.. "Gold falls as investors sell metal for cash"... My commodities guy JB tells me it may be related more to the expiration of gold and silver options yesterday and last day of futures trading today. Kind of a regular thing, toward the end of each month, a slam down and drawing of blood from the options players.
Bankers in Trouble Here's one to keep an eye on: "Italy seizes millions in assets fro Four Banks".
--- snip and save section --- Coping: Dumpster Diving You know what dumpster diving is, right? Going through dumpsters to glean items of use, such as food and so forth if you happen to live on the street and have no address or income.
So here's the headline that changes our definition of 'dumpster diving' around: "B.C. police officer catches man, woman having sex in garbage dumpster."
Maybe the guy was just drawn to trashy looking women, yah think?
Good Guys Win? Seems so...as a reader in the UK reports:
--- Sorry if this morning's report is a bit shorter than normal - doing lots of research on the hybrid flu...more as developments warrant and workload allows...
Monday April 27, 2009 Sick People = Sick Markets We're officially in a public health emergency now, says acting HHS Secretary Charles Johnson:
Despite trying to take some time off, our friends with the predictive linguistics project have been just tripping over all the temporal markers that have been showing up over the past couple of weeks. Besides the appearance of 10XCSN this weekend, that I explained to Peoplenomics subscribers, our 'masked people/revolution pending' marker is here as this note from chief time monk Cliff explains:
My own sense of things is that this episode of flu-ishness, although serious enough to have US authorities now calling it a 'public health emergency' and actions are beginning worldwide may just be a prequel to the sequel: The biggest data bulge seems to be September, or so, which either means the swine flu will be a slowly evolving outbreak or there will be another something along, or the model's timing is off. Taker your pick and throw a dart, but do so after you've picked up some bleach, masks, gloves and chicken soup, vitamins C & D and visted the www.pandemicflu.gov web site.
. The problem is, however, that once the genie is out of the bottle, it's hard to put it back in. While this begins to fulfill more of the trend toward "restrictions on travel" that have been almost a fixture of modelspace since the 2006 reports of bird flu.
While it may see extreme (now) of us to be talking about flu/masking/somehow playing into a global revolution meme, remember the government's own web site cautions about both the economic and social consequences of the flu. Since our emphasis around here is buckeroo's, let's start with what this does to the global economy:
All of which makes interesting reading, but as I explained to subscribers this weekend, I expect that most economists of the conventional sort will be wrong because the reports I've read take a very limited view of rippling flu impacts. In other words, there's an assumption that a pandemic impact might be in the range of 6%, or so, and that's on the high side.
I respectfully disagree. If you want to hold a long term easy to figure estimate, take whatever the sickness rate and the fatality rate, multiply times two and you've got the GDP deflator. So, for example, if 50% of the people in America were to get flu'ed, and the mortality rate were to be 10%, then the national mortality rate would be 5% and the GDP impact 10%...if you follow the logic there.
On the other hand, if 100% of people got the flu, and 10% died, then you'd have a 20% GDP impact (or larger) since you'd subtract 10% of the your workers (this strain hits healthy young adults, you know) and then you'd have 10% less consumers, and tons of estate sales on eBay driving down prices on top of all the other problems.
Not to quibble, but an impact of 1-2 times the mortality rate in a given country seems like a starting point to me. --- One salient ponder is this note about the economic differences between the 1918 flu and what's going on now...
I have to suspiciously wonder if the PowersThatBe might have a little something up their sleeve with regard to how money is managed in the world: Could a flu pandemic be used as an excuse to rid the world of "dirty money" (e.g. cash) and set us all in a grand central computer system where infinitely expandable digidollars could be inflated forever?
On the other hand, I can make a pretty good argument that silver has some serious antibacterial and antiviral properties, so yeah, I have noted that silver was back over $13 an ounce when I looked this morning. Whether it's a coincidence that I hold some July $20 silver commodity options and some September $25's I'll just leave to your imagination. But just keep your eyes open for mentions of silver... --- I won't go on and on about this except to say that the flu exposes the weak underbelly of globalism and all that remains to be seen is how restrictions on travel will play out and whether North America will find itself isolated by the rest of the world to any meaningful degree. The EU is already saying "stay home."
With people in the US now being told by some doctors to wear masks, I can sense some interesting change in marketing of some products. Marketing of N-95 or better dust/surgical masks just got really easy. But on the flip side, be thankful you don't have to sell video surveillance cameras with facial recognition software for a living - that just got a lot tougher.
Economic Bummer The director of the national economic council, Larry Summers is saying that the US economy's decline will 'continue for some time". No, flu doesn't help, either.
Bye-Bye Pontiac As in the car not the city in Michigan, as GM announces big shuffles today.
Them Winds ...are back again today as my office weather radio announced this morning that Anderson County, Texas, is one of the places on a tornado watch for later on this morning. Record high temps in the east over the weekend and cool air in the Midwest spells trouble.
Technology: Denser Media If you're old enough to remember 5¼ inch floppies, go read up on GE's breakthrough that could put up to 100 DVD's worth of data on a single disk. Here I was thinking my terabyte storage devices were cool...always something new to buy, isn't it? These aren't out yet, but start saving now... --- Windows 7 is getting a built-in XP mode. I wonder if this means a mode that works? Meantime, I'm still waiting on my 64 bit Vista update so I can use some class compliant USB products...ahem... --- Samsung is first to market with a Google phone. Being unbelievably cheap, we only use one of those prepaid minutes phones and only rarely. When I checked out cell bill was running about $125 a year. Some families do three times that a month. I can see giving kids a free education...but does that include a cell phone these days?
Dig Deeper Department As unemployment goes up and sales go down, what's a state to do but raise sales taxes? Latest to consider it: Massachusetts. --- I've never filed a real estate tax assessment before, but already I'm sensing that will come this year...
Heavy Handed Lending? On the surface, reports like "World Bank demands poverty action" sound all high-minded like, but if they're such great humanitarians, why the liens on national assets of third world countries that borrow? And who makes out on the interest? Would humanitarians charge interest? Just asking...
Kent State Showdown The arrest total is up to 50 at Kent State University where things got out of hand over the weekend.
Markets 2% down wouldn't be a surprise today, based on how the futures look. Consumer CONfidence out tomorrow...
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Coping: A First-hand Regression Report Lots of readers were asking me for more details about past life regressions, so I prevailed on a friend who underwent one on Friday to write up a detailed report on the experience. Here's the report...long but worth the time, I think...
Whew! Elaine and I are pondering whether to go through the process ourselves and see what's to be learned from 'past life regression.'
Before the chart, a little background: Once upon a time, a long while ago, I observed during my quest for 'truth' in economics, that the PowersThatBe, the talking heads on the teeve, and the other information sources that actively engage in the programming of humans not to think, had conveniently swept several trillions of dollars that disappeared in the Internet Bubble's bursting (since spring 2000) under the rug. Surely, it wasn't unnoticed by the thousands of people who called brokers and said "Where is my money?" "Gone, but hang in there as you're a long term investor!" was about all they heard back.
So one of our charts for Peoplenomics subscribers oughta be widely circulated - it shows that if you line up the peak of the Dow in January 2000 with the peak in early September of 1929, we're on a very very close replay track. Much closer than even the chart shows if you were to back out inflation, and put in the effects of 1929 deflation, but that'd be real work, and I'm sort of lazy if the truth be told.
No, it's not a perfect replay of 1929, but history doesn't repeat exactly, it only rhymes. So think of this as the rhymes and the crimes chart:
"George, that's only a coincidence!" your monkey-mind will protest.
Why sure it is...you bet. A 9½ year long coincidence...yessir....just a coincidence, I'm sure...
Write when you get rich,
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