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- Friday about 8 AM Central Time ....some typos are fixed by
8:30 daily This site is supported by subscriptions: For additional content, please subscribe to Peoplenomics. . Content mirrored at: www.independencejournal.com, Kindle (.MOBI) version here
The Saturday Note: As you may know, weekend content is for subscribers to Peoplenomics.com, our premium service ($40/year...details here). This weekend's first report: The president and key leaders of Poland die in a plane crash, the timing of which is interesting, to say the least. And we look at some earthquake predictions... Sunday, the New Depression cookbook is out and more on food & inflation ahead.
Drop by again Monday morning about 8 AM Central time for the next scheduled free update...
We, the April Fools Every so often, the Universe drops a huge hint to the 13 people who are really looking for direct hints and when you catch even a fleeting glimpse, you just gotta smile and acknowledge 'Yeah, Universe, that was a real knee slapper, LOL..."
What is George rambling on about this morning: Well, you didn't happen to notice what the Dow closed at on April Fool's Day, did you?
Then, go up to the top of the same link and look at yesterday's close:
10,927.07.
Out here in time monk land, we call this sort of thing a meaningful coincidence; however, since there is no such thing as a coincidence (as everything in the Universe is connected - even if only by weak threads of action-at-a-distance, we drop the word coincidence and then focus on the meaningful part.
Near as I've been able to tell, Universe (or whatever is behind the curtain pretending to run/orchestrate reality) doesn't intercede directly in human affairs. But, it does drop hints big enough to slap you in the face if you look at the coinky-dinks that aren't coincidental and focus on the hints in plain sight - like this one. I'll be watching the market closer than usual over the next couple of weeks since whatever is happening points to April Fools in big, bold closing numbers. --- Over at Kitco's precious metals site, I notice that Gold closed April Fool's Day at $1,123.50. The Thursday close was $1,148. Which I take to mean holding gold is not foolery. --- Speaking of Fools, I hope you noticed that St. Greenspan (at least he was deified at the time) is disavowing any responsibility for the Housing Bubble and subsequent collapse which has forced hundreds of thousands to lose their homes.
As one UrbanSurvival reader asked: "How can someone directly in charge of monetary policy orchestrate making loans to people who lived at general delivery addresses, held no steady job, and yet through the magic of no-doc loans ended up buying up houses?"
Fine question that, and if you believe anything other than the obvious, the Fool line is over there....
Actually, a nice job of coverage in the MSM by MSNBC's Dylan Ratigan (streaming) which called what Greenspan did was a 'con'. reality comes a knockin', huh? Worth the watching if for nothing more than the MSM mood shift that's apparent.
In the linguistics, this is where the MSM starts waking up. Better late, than never, I suppose... and today we've got lots of buzz on Newt Gingrich calling Obama the 'most radical president ever'.
--- Still, there's a certain amount of 20-20 hindsight going on: NY Fed president Bill Dudley says central bankers have an obligation to move prevent asset bubbles. You can read his whole speech, but if you click this link, be sure and set a timer as you may snooze off and you don't want to miss quitting time. Why the timer? Well, he super-excitingly says things like:
Sure, that's a little out of context, but the reason I got sleepy is that I'll probably be dead by the time this "transition" comes to pass. Fortunately, he later admits:
No kidding? Why that's as good as my standard "Nothing here should be construed as financial advise" disclaimer.
The old joke "If you lined all the economists in the world up back to back, they wouldn't come to a conclusion..." Except, it's no joke so 300-million people are wondering Inflation or Deflation - of Stagflation 2.0? Be kinda nice to know these things, but the dirty little secret (filthy lucre came by its title honestly) is that no one knows.
Don't know if you caught the Wall Street Journal piece on the 4th, but it explained (as I've been trying to) that "Inflation Fears Cut Two Ways at the Fed". If the coffee hasn't kicked in, that would be up, or down. --- All of which leaves us pawing through headlines trying to figure out whether it's time to "Get outa Dodge", but then again, where you gonna hide? Our some gold/silver, a few bonds, and a whole lot of gardening tools makes more sense than the average Fed speech because the worst of all cases would be skyrocketing food and necessity prices against which the garden is a hedge, while goods prices collapse and since the jobs report showed a downside surprise this week, you may have plenty of time to tend the garden and do some canning.
Just don't expect that level of candor from the Fed. Besides, good nutrition, fresh fruits and veggies, not to mention a little exercise would only serve to keep you out of the healthscare system and prolong the time you're around being what I think it was Henry Kissinger reportedly called a "useless eater". --- A buddy of mine runs a pretty good-sized construction company in a top-20 market and he's been downsizing his economic footprint a fair bit of late. In fact in an email just yesterday he told me "...construction is SLOW. not much happening...."
You're seeing the truth leaks on this stuff all over the place if you go hit "vacancy rate" and search Google's news feeds. --- Not like I'm the
only one with these distinctly non-rose colored glasses on.
I've told you about many others over the past few years -
people who aren't buying the 'offishul' line from inside the
Beltway, which exists, near as I can figure in an alternative
reality all its own. Eric Janszen is the founder of
iTulip.com and has a forthcoming audio book "The Post Catastrophe Economy: Rebuilding After the Great Collapse of 2008
I mention this because his article "Welcome to the False Recovery" made it into the Harvard Business Review. Why, just think: alternative (i.e. realistic economics that includes things like a deep understanding of how cyclical factors play a major role in outcomes) might just have a chance to shame the quants and Crays of formulistic economics yet.
Or, we may have to wait for more system breakdown, yet to come. Regardless of how it works out, I have this gnawing sense that Universe is telling us something exactly a week after you-know-what day.
We're the April Fools.
Need more proof? "Stock futures rise, point to higher opening." That'll be for people with heads in their lower opening, if'n you follow....
April Fools, Redux Then there's the case of former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, more recently with Citigroup and his co-star at the time, CEO Charles Prince who were up on the Hill yesterday denying any wrongdoing in the $45-billion taxpayer bailout.
Why sure, you betcha. Hand me my crack pipe?
Another Bond Failure But this one was a Chinese bond failure. --- Here's the most simple/straightforward explanation why bond auctions are failing I can come up with: No one has any money to put into them. Duh.
Crudely Put "Oil could give kiss of death to recovery" notices the Financial Times. --- Around here, we think the kissing's over and we're past the foreplay, but the Brits maybe aren't as direct as saying "BOHICA!!!"
Say, paying your tanning tax like good little sheep?
Golden New Tip From the news tip sheet overnight:
Send the additional analysis and anything more that can be shared freely here? Know it's up there now, but when inflation takes off skyward for basics, what then?
I mean that's where everything breaks down to ugly. So if real estate is collapsing and food is doing a moonshot, which one do the metals follow? My guess is food....
'Nother Bot Hit From a reader and under the heading "webbot hit on taxes on charities!" MTA (NYC) payroll tax is being applied to charities.
Is this the part where I say "quick! Look surprised! The Rickety Time Machine isn't always right. But I wouldn't recommend playing Russian Roulette with its odd, either...
Risky Business "UBS's Excellent Risk Indicator says Equity Market Risk is Approaching Extremes" headlines Business Insider this morning.
My golly! Who'd have thought?
R&R Notes Hmmm...Revolution word keeps being associated with the rebellion is Kyrgyzstan. --- CNN reports that "Urban farms herald green city 'revolution'.
Good revolution, bad revolution, bad dog, good dog...
Next Quake Date (Maybe) Since there are so many readers looking at how coronal mass ejections from the Sun are bitch-slapping the Earth's magnetosphere - and seemingly in close proximity to growing earthquake - it's only appropriate that we share this latest little note called a "PRESTO ALERT" which is part of the global space weather program:
So if you feel the Earth moves this weekend, don't be surprised. Like if you're out on the 15th tee late Saturday and it sudden moves 10 feet to the left, you've either seen a big-ass quake, or bought several too many from the beer cart.
--- snip and save section ---
Coping: World's Worst Golfers With Panama Bates present to 'watch our six" (and 9, and 3, and 12, come to think of it) the recent round of good weather down here in East Texas has me thinking of Golf again. Not so much because of the reference to the beer cart, earlier, but because there are times down here when golf is absolutely idyllic.
Our home course is Pine Dunes and you can get a look at some of the key holes here. I haven't heard back from the White House on our generous offer to play host to Barrack Obama (provided it's a Monday-Thursday round for $49; it would have been any time but we're trying to save up for higher taxes to come since word came out earlier this week that almost half the people in America don't pay any Federal Income Tax). We do, and that restricts us to only a couple of round per year.
In the past two weeks, East Texas as undergone an amazing change: Gone are the dead brush look of winter and once again, this place is pumping more oxygen into the atmosphere than Washington pumps hot air. Place looks like a postcard.
Last time we played was a year, or so, back and it was 95º and probably 90% humidity. I'm only a barely passable duffer, but when it gets to be mid-Summer, just walking from the cart path to the ball (carrying a heavy #7 iron) feels like the Bataan death march. As a result, my interest is seasonal. --- The sport has taken a few hits lately, what with the Tiger Woods Affair(s) and a return of television advertising. The WaPo sports page headlines it as "Nike's Tiger Woods ad takes shame to another level." while the NY Daily News headlines "Tiger Woods gets breast wishes from his jilted porn star Joslyn James".
Way I figure it, enough is enough. The guy has been the brunt of so many jokes, they're beyond count, the comedians have had an (ongoing) field day with him, and even when he tries to get back in the game, it's not taken seriously.
Seems the one thing the MSM doesn't do is ever quit on a story. But having been around the news business long enough, you see these excessive bashings come and go. The MSM and mainstream comedy have only now lightened up on the Kennedy/bridge jokes, the purported exploits of the late President Kennedy never did seem to make the MSM, and Bill & Hillary are still together after that little cigars tube and dress deal.
In other words, people just got on with Life. --- Yesterday, Tiger carded a 68 at the Masters. He also is reported to have given upwards of $3-million to Haiti relief efforts. That doesn't get the same limelight MSM hype & attention.
Somehow, the masterful golf and the generosity doesn't sell papers; don't know where the personal life stuff is now - or where it's going, but I'll tell you what: If Barrack Obama doesn't take us up on our golf offer, Tiger (and Mrs. W if she's interested) are more than welcome to a round on us. Mon-Thursday, of course.
Hell, I'd be pleased just to caddy. Ultimately golf is a game a lot like life - the toughest of all opponents is ourselves and I figure Tiger's got that one nailed now. No nailing puns, please. Can we move on?
iPadding Forgot to mention when I was in the Big City (Tyler) this week, I went by the local Best Buy store to try out the new iPad. Came away from the experience scratching my head wondering "What would I do with that and where's the keyboard? I must have missed something. Out today is a report the $500-class units have about $260 worth of hard cost in them.
Neat to have a bunch of aps and such, but the Bezos crew at Amazon would be more likely to get some dough from us for the gen-2 Kindle if we lived somewhere we'd be able to get to the internet - think it's a 3G connection if I'm not mistaken - don't put much effort into such things since I have an extended desktop of four 24" monitors and a comfy chair for most computer work.
Ended up leaving the Best Buy with a wireless headphone/microphone for client discussions and interviewing soon to be famous authors if I can get Skype to record, then download and just roll it into Dragon so I don't have to type. That'd be the way to do a book, I figure. Even some of my conversations with Cliff might be of interest...with permission in advance, of course.
Latest trend in home computing seems to be adding a "home media server". Not too sure if we need one of those, but that's the trend.
Fitness Hint Don't go jogging when it's going to hail like mad. File next to no golf in lightning storms. --- Maybe we do need big government because so many people are so frigging stoopid.
MRSA Since my EMT son had a brush with MRSA about a year and a half back, did a full recovery and no missing body parts, but worrisome nevertheless, a reader suggested that you might want to keep a little tea tree oil on hand as a just-in-case and pointed up a good Goog search on topic. Cheap natural meds like this belong in the home medicine chest. But don't overdo it, lest resistance build up.
(Stuff smells good too...)
Deep Thoughts for the Weekend Time being set aside this weekend for a study of "random matrix theory" which is well described in this NewScientist article. Except, of course, nothing out in quantum land can be too well-described since looking at it changes everything, but as long as we have a weekend to ponder such thing...
If You Have a Weekend, That Is... A reader suggested in yesterday's note about the right DJ song to play in background was probably Taxman! by the Beatles.
Since millions of Americans will be playing last-minute to get their taxes done, it's worth repeating the last verse:
Today is "Tax Freedom Day" But not really. It's 38 days from now if you count deficits...and if you count down 6-layers of cost additions which taxes percolate upstream, it's sometime this summer.
We, the April Fools, redux.
Tuned-In Go watch the video by reader Chris Ross: "Freedom" on YouTube now.
Two things to do with this: Make it viral by sending a link to everyone you know. And if you're really bored, play "spot the Looney" at 2:32-2:34 into it. --- Drop by Monday - should have the free Second Depression One-Pot Cookbook ready to fly by then - free - but it will be out Sunday for Peoplenomics subscribers - along with the section from "How to Live on $10,000 a year - or less..." related to food...
Everyone hungers for Freedom. But dinner's nice, too...
Ciao chow chow
Send your comments to george@ure.net Shop Till You Drop Department: Peoplenomics This Week Accelerated Learning I've mentioned - perhaps too often for some - that one of my most significant 'personal discoveries' so far in life has been an amazingly simple personal 'knowledge engineering ap' that quite literally changed my life. It took me from being a C+ to B- kind of student to straight A's in school, but beyond that it also made it possible for me to learn all kinds of new skills at a remarkable rate. I don't think I've ever written it down before - and since it is broadly applicable in both education and the work environment, this week a short discussion of accelerate learning and what I've found in my quest to "know it all' and 'do it all'. This really may help you get more out of life. More For Subscribers To Subscribe, CLICK HERE Need Logon Assistance? Click here. Cookie Video The folks at Maxa Research have put together a short video (sound track by guess who?) that shows the Maxa Cookie Manager. You can see it here.
I don't usually get all whipped up about software, but this is one of those dandy tools that just simply works great. First thing I put on my new computer when I got it was Avira Anti-virus and Maxa Cookie Manager (MCM). Either follow the on-screen download instructions of simply click:
Once you try it out, to upgrade to the fully functioning version, just click the upgrade button (!) on the upper right hand side for the $35 unlock to get it to remove even those nasty and highly intrusive 'non-browser specific' cookies. Bonus: You computer may run faster.
"Live on $10,000" A Year Having a hard time making ends meet? (Like who isn't, right?) A good starting point to better match up income with outgo is our $10 e-book "How to Live on #10,000 a Year...or less!"
It's an automatic download. It's written in an information dense style: The whole thing runs about 65 pages, but it gives you a vision of how to not only live on the cheap, but also how to migrate up the economic foodchain if you have a little hustle left. A bonus section called "How to Build Anything" should instill confidence if you've never taken on a home improvement/home creation project before, too..... Click here for the index and details.
MyGroPonics My commodity broker JB Slear and I have written a simple book to get you started on high density hydroponics. It's an example of how someone with a little creativity, access to a few 'dollar stores' and willing to try out some new farming techniques can grow an amazing amount of produce sin a very small space - like even an apartment balcony (if it gets some sunlight). Sound interesting? It's just $10 bucks here...
Pass It On A different take on things - that's what you'll find here most mornings. If you know of anyone who might also like our content, simply click here and send a link to them. Or, if you hated what you read, send the link to all your 'worst enemies'. Like they say in Burbank, "Ain't no such thing as bad press..." ---- Last week's report is here. For back issues of this site, click here.
Thursday April 8, 2010 Jobless Up Unexpected (except by us realists) the initial jobless claims for the week went up today - should have figured as much:
Green what?
Global Revolution Daily Yesterday it was the revolution in Kyrgyzstan in which more than 100 people have been killed in running battles with the police. The president of the country has fled from the capital to who-knows-where and I have to wonder what the Kyrgyzstan parliamentary approval rating was prior to people taking to the streets, since our own congress, according to the current runs compiled by the Polling Report (a damn useful site) run from the Fox and CBS polls which show an approval rating of 14 percent on the low side to a high side of 32% by an AP-Gkf poll. I just know someone in Washington has to be watching this stuff... --- Then we see the beginnings of the Tax Revolt (again for how many times is this?) as ABC reports on the "Property Tax Rebellion Brewing After Real Estate Collapse". Predictive linguistics had this breaking out about 'tax time' and even though a week early, that's close enough for gov't work. Depending who's gov't, of course.
Stock Answers Yes, stock futures were pointing to a lower open this morning...buncha Nervous Nellies these bulls...not without cause, mind you.
A number of readers wrote in asking: "George, could you enlighten us on why the market is falling?"
Sure: More sellers than buyers is my guess. (rim shot)
Angry Answers Then there's the reader who wrote in this:
Three things here:
Tax Freedom When? I've bitched and moaned how much over the last year about 'the crooked rich' who pay no taxes while the rest of us toil and pay tons of taxes? I mean gobs, oodles and tons...if I told you how much Elaine and I paid last year, you'd be appalled - it was so much. But, like Pappy said "It isn't all bad because you made a lot...stop complaining..." We couldn't even itemize, I'm such a lousy cheapskate.
All the more reason for the eyes to bug out when I read how "Nearly half of US households escape fed income tax."
Which gets us to the second point of this morning's spew: The press release from The Tax Foundation which notes that April 9th - tomorrow - is Tax Freedom Day. From their press release, see the part I've highlighted in yellow here:
And yes, all the free-spending on bailing out too big to fails and yada, yada will continue to climb...in fact the real tax freedom day isn't until next month:
So, if you're starting to feel like those signs around the workplace like "The Harder I Work, the Behinder I Get" are less a joke than simply acknowledging Reality, you must be alive somewhere down inside the processed foods and high density RF sludge (did I mention fluoride?) that tends to cloud modern thinking.
Let's make it simple: 99/365 = 27% of your work year goes to government. Or, 37.53% if we include deficits. --- Name That Tune: Since America is being sliced into two camps when it comes to paying taxes, do and don't, if you were a DJ what song would you pick? I kinda like asking "When do taxes ever stop?" as "It's Now or Never" plays in the background and I'm an idiot for not figuring out how to get some of that free money stuff...or lucky, just maybe.
"Modern" Thinking The US and Russia have signed the new nuclear treaty today which comes a few days after the Obama administration took nukes off the table, essentially. Veep Joe Biden's remarks in an op-ed piece sum things up this way:
I continue to hold that no President should ever remove an option from the arsenal of US response, but I've said my piece on that...which was along the lines of "What the hell are they doing?" --- Readers, of course, were appalled at my 2-eyes and a few body parts for each eye poked...in fact one said:
True, this. And no problem as far as it goes. But, in order for Omnihumanity to emerge, there must be a leveled playing field - and all who would force 'conversion by the sword' on any side must renounce their swords all at once. Otherwise, it's just one-sided capitulation. Not that they don't have a few legit grievances, but just sayin'... Conversion by commercials and conversion by the sword are two sides of the same tunafish salad, right?
Cool that we've signed an agreement with Russia... but until we pull back the rabid corporate exploitation from other countries (such as we can, since what they don't outright own of the world now, they have by a rope round the nuts anyway) and the real fighting stops, giving up options ain't exactly genius in my book. Laying down swords & nukes with Russia is one out of 194 (or so) other countries which we need to patch up with - but there remain others intent on coming after us with swords (Example here), exploitive economics, explosives, yada, yada.
Nope, no worries about global peace breaking out any time soon as long as the you-know-whats are in charge of the global asylum. Fix that and Mr. Mellow is here waiting for you. Meantime, the battle between the PTB and the regular human people continues unabated and nukes are just a proxy, anyway. Dandy fear factor/fear-mongering tool...look how it kept most people "bottled up" and "compliant" for how long -- 40 years -- in the Cold War? This is just so much herding of the herd somewhere else...
But wait! Hold the bread, let's get back to circuses...
Sex-Talk Radio Starring: The First Lady of France! Wonder how she'd do in the Arbitrons?
Blow Job (No, you dolt! Not THAT kind....) Hurricane forecasters are looking for an active season. --- Blame Zeus the Cat who is editing this morning's report...no class at all...says he's feeling Frisky which means back to Science Diet tomorrow.
Truth Leaks: Flu To-Do Oh-oh: "Studies link H1N1 to seasonal flu shots". One more reason not to buy the first round of hype, huh? Let me see...how many doses are being thrown out again? (Up to 71.5 million doses) Oh peachy. --- But wait! Now there's some talk of a third wave of novel/swine flu. New promo campaign from big pharma? You saw where one maker's order from the UK is being slashed?
I'm willing to take a shot once in a while...as long as it's in 1.5 oz. servings over ice with a squeeze of lime, thanks.
--- snip and save section ---
Coping: Second Depression Cooking While we have six more days before the new mid-month CPI report for March comes out, I was looking at the data from the February report (out a few weeks ago) from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. I kept zooming in one the one part of the report which claimed that food prices on an unadjusted 12-months basis were down 2/10th's of one percent overall and down 1.5% over the year for food consumed at home. Food away from home was up 1.4%.
Since Elaine & I took my visiting friend of 57-years to the airport on Wednesday, and we were in what passes around here for "The Big City" we did some stocking up on things that are a little hard to come by locally - mostly in the health food and vitamin category; since we both doggedly hold to the notion that if you eat enough of the right 'good/organic' foods and listen to your body a bit (cravings and such), your body will work its magic and will carry you through life most of the distance intended. From there, you can get onboard with medical types for the final sprint.
But the key point (which I'll eventually get to) is that I have done a bit of shopping and notice that the health foods/vitamins and such we were picking up sure seemed to be 5-10% higher than I remembered from trips as recent as six months ago.
Some of that may have to do with me getting old in the head (not hardly, but a little ginko bilobka won't hurt) and perhaps some faulty recall on prices.
Still, I found myself wondering "How much hedonic adjustment has been going on in CPI figures to adjust for alleged quality improvements in all cost areas?"
Hedonics, in case you've forgotten is the science (I could put that in quotes, I suppose) of adjusting prices of things today based on feature sets, changes in technology, and in food, portion sizes and substitution of things like ground sirloin for top sirloin...not saying they exactly do that, but it's along those lines according to many reports.
A good starting point for learning hedonic adjustments is a handy-dandy 2001 paper revealing the plan titled "The Expanding Role of Hedonic Methods in the Official Statistics of the United States" which says in its abstract:
A couple of quotes from the paper help guide thinking on the question of hedonics. For example, it explains how it is that Luddites like yours truly are attached to the apples-to-apples, oranges-to-oranges approach to bean-counting price changes over time:
Along about page 7 of the report, there's a dandy discussion of use of hedonic pricing at the Bureau of Labor Statistics to work over food prices and other components of the Consumer Price Index. The problem? While it talks about housing costs (owned versus rented) and apparel prices (how do you discount for fashion - yesterday's not about Kim Jong-Il's leisuresuits notwithstanding) it doesn't specifically outline the approach to food.
You're in the Luddite camp if you have figured out that no matter how many terabytes of hard drive you have, the I/O limit to the human in charge (which we call a HIC here in East Texas) is still about 100 WPM typing and maybe 200 WPM with voice recognition. 900 WPM for New Yorkers on a double-shot Americano tall, but New Yorkers on speed come across as mostly incomprehensible to humans and machines alike from more sensible parts of the country.
Still, if you're not familiar with the paper and the techniques that go into repricing prices - as it were - this paper is a beaut. --- All of which got me to thinking: If hedonic adjustments are made for things like airline travel, rents versus owned housing, and computer horsepower, how long before gardening (which seems to be on the increase) becomes a major factor in hedonic adjustments to the CPI?
I mean if a head of cauliflower is on sale for $1.59 at the store, and a home gardener can produce the same thing for a few cents in seed, then obviously as the amount of cauliflower coming out of home gardens increases then there will be some depressive impact on overall prices, everything else being equal.
I guess you'll have to pardon me for taking one of my 'cynical pills' today, but when I see stories about how Michelle Obama has recently expanded the White House garden, I get into these terrible, knock-down fights with myself. "Is this a good thing, or bad?"
Mental fists start flying. I've had a headaches on this for several days now working this problem around and any reader input - especially if you know where BLS or BEA hides the 'secret sauce of hedonic adjustments' for gardening - would be appreciated.
One side of the argument (my left hemisphere of the brain, near as I can figure) says "This is the coolest thing since sliced bread! A First lady who is gardening and setting a wonderful example - even perhaps giving a hint to the whole world that home gardening is important!"
The right hemisphere of my brain, however, which is where the pain is this morning, says "Hold on a minute, Mister: If BLS gets hold of this food for free stuff, then they will at some point start hedonically adjusting food prices (if they aren't already) to discount prices reported in the CPI figures. Think of it: If the price went to near infinity for cauliflower at the supermarket, but you could still grow the stuff nearly free (a gallon of water over the growing season, maybe, in a drought?) then wouldn't there be a sound argument that overall prices might remain constant...given that there's a huge increase in gardening? Why, there's even a good sized pea patch type thing at the White House, for heaven's sake..."
If you find the rhyme & verse in BLS or BEA docs that gives the food price equivalent of Revelations, please send it along. Inquiring minds have a headache on this one. --- Thank you for the One-Pot recipes which have come in so far. I've been pulling them into a folder and this weekend (*time permitting) I will get them compiled into a .PDF and we'll just give it away free - since this site is not entirely about making money - there's a gotta give away a lot of free stuff and ask good questions component, too. Send recipes to george@ure.net and put one-potter in the subject line so the email router does its thing, please & thank you.
Oh Crop: Not Another! The headline "Obama gives key agriculture post to Monsanto Man" demands a read.
Phobos and Phobias Don't know if you have been following Richard Hoagland's work at Enterprise Mission but the article on Phobos (a once thought a "moon" around Mars) may actually be hollow and you know what that means, right?
Need a Hint? Oh, just that we could be living on a terraformed planet, be a kind of hybrid human cattle used to raise 'souls' and supervised by watchers left behind who aren't so nice (demons) who screwed with our DNA when their bosses left and those are the entities that left but are due to come back one of these eons...which all got twisted up in religious texts, but go in that direction, but it gets screwed up because the fallen watchers/leave behinds have this marvelous power trip going here on Earth...
Dandy. When does Friday get here?
Wednesday April 7, 2010 The Most Important Number of All Before we get into the daily discussion of rigged gold and silver markets, the reports of the latest earthquakes, and all the other little events that keep life 'interesting' a reminder that you should keep an eye on the Federal (not really) Reserve (none) report on Consumer Debt that comes out this afternoon.
You see, Consumer Debt (called consumer credit) is what will really drive America either into recovery, or will complete the flushing of the Middle Class.
Oh, sure, there are those who argue that "Helicopter Ben" can just print up money to his heart's content - and that will somehow resolve all of America's financial woes -- and that somehow the printing presses are the key to the whole of our economic future.
Well, not quite.
If you look at the most current Money Stocks Report (H.6), [here], you'll see that M1 for February 2010 is estimated at 1.7103 trillion versus the February 2009 M1 of 1.5621 trillion which means (if your calculator is not warmed up yet) that the M1 inflation rate is 9.487%, but since it's early, we can round it off to 9.5%.
Then, we go look at the most recent CPI numbers (cost of living) and see that the unadjusted 12-month inflation rate for goods and services gobbled up by consumers is a weak 2.1%.
So, at least to my way of thinking, the incipient deflation rate here in the Second Depression is (9.5% minus 2.1% =) 7.4%. --- As long as the M1 money is exploding at a nearly double-digit rate, but inflation is near enough to non-existent, I won't get really excited about buying too much in the way of inflation hedging assets (gold, silver, energy goods, or leveraged real estate), but since this is a long-term trend, neither am I getting too excited about buying a bunch of treasuries and such because bond values could collapse once secular inflation starts to kick up.
I'm just trying to keep our financial powder dry until I can see what's ahead clear enough to make a serious bet on whatever comes next and for that to happen, the trend needs to be clear.
Which circles back to the Fed Consumer Debt figures. Last months report advised us that "Consumer credit increased at an annual rate of 2-1/2 percent in January 2010. Revolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 2-1/4 percent, and nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 5 percent."
The figures are a bit noisy, so I tend to look at the most recent rolling three-month average because one month does not a trend make. So looking at the rolling most recent three months, we see that overall consumer debt had dropped at a 4.16% annual rate (12mos. 2009 vs. 2 months of Q4 and 1 month of 2010). Revolving credit (cards, etc) was down 9.33% while non-revolving was down 1.06%.
So drop by tomorrow and let's see what the figures come up with this afternoon, and we'll put on the green eyeshades and try to get a little clarification whether the trend goes more deflationary - or inflationary - because once we know that we ought to be able to deploy both nickels we've saved after taxes to try and hold even with inflation plus maybe a little bit.
VAT's Coming Of course, in order to try to spend our way out of Depression 2.0, governments worldwide are clamoring for a bigger chunk of your labors to give to people who aren't as fortunate. I told you how recent Gordo-the-Gold-Seller in the UK was being pimp-daddy of the new global(ist) bankster taxes to fund their world government plans.
--- But, here's a major newsflash: While the Big Government types are cheerleading sucking more and more out of your hard-earned income, we are left to wonder "What are we getting in return?"
In other words, taxes of ALL types used to be much lower - and even in the days of a 3% sales tax and a modest property tax, government had enough dough to build roads - including a fine interstate highway system and the like.
What government seems deaf - and just can't seem to fathom at any level - is that if we had basic government services at a much lower tax load in the past, why can't we trim back to the smaller tax burdens through - oh, I dunno - level government intrusion and spending maybe??? - such that a huge VAT nightmare isn't visited on America's house?
Lemme see....chipping in the healthcare bill, tax everything at much higher rates, and let me see...how else can the sheep be sheared? Aha! Here it is...
Small town in Colorado is putting a 5% tax on medical marijuana. Some taxes people are anxious to pay...
Wet Spot 11-inches of rain in Rio in a 24-hour period.
Dry Spot --- On average, things must be fine.
Sorry About the Quakes Don't know if you noticed the 7.7 quake in Northern Sumatra/Indonesia on Tuesday, but it was a pretty good-sized hit. Meantime, the whole area of SoCal is ringing with aftershocks upon aftershocks and this is Wednesday, so I'm just a tad worried about more to come.
Meantime, a reader sends this:
(slightly redacted to protect an identity). I'd like to apologize for all the discussion of quakes this week, but this really is a big deal and likely to get bigger as the year goes on, but it's only one layer of the cake served up in 2010 linguistically. In other words, don't get mad at the messenger, we just report's 'em like we here's 'em comin'. If that makes sense. No? --- Meantime, we find ourselves pondering when to next visit the Island of Los Angeles. Think I'm joking? A reader sent a link to this spiffy NOAA graphic and the note:
Yep, and no telling how fast it will take place. If it happens over the next million years (plus or minus an extinction) that'd be swell...but this year? Different set of worries. Might keep that tent set up just in case. Healthcare When??? I got a number of emails from a friend during the healthcare debate about my coverage of the story...but seems a lot of it is coming to pass as predicted: higher taxes and no service being delivered for a good while to come.
"Health care overhaul spawns mass confusion for public" headlines a story out of the McClatchy group today.
Oh - on the part where I said this would be a money-collecting deal for a couple of years? Here's a dandy quote I have to send to my friend who's been so critical of our coverage of healthscare:
Well, gee, who'da thought? And will there be anything left by then? Open question, huh?
Pension Holes Another gaping financial hole along the highway to happiness is coming into view as we learn in the NY Times B-section today how Automaker pensions are underfunded by $17 billion.
Tim to China Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner is headed for Beijing to talk about the currency dispute...you know, the one where China wants to get back the same value they put into things like our bonds and what-have-you's". Wonder how many times he's been there since his ascension? Something to work out if you've got a slow day going. --- I was going to do an in depth analysis of the Fed notes from Tuesday and then decided it would be a pointless backward looking exercise and I don't do history...only the future interests me since I can still have some small influence over that.
Stock futures are down so we shall see...
We Ain't Terrorists ...nor, should that be inferred by my "strong on defense of America position" taken in yesterday's column. Yet this morning when I see how "Iran ridicules Obama's nuclear strategy" I can't help but think back on the critical emails that have come rolling in.
An example:
No question about it. However, if you read books on nuclear devices and fallout, there really are some pretty (as these things go) "clean" alternatives.
Harder to answer are emails like this one:
As I summed up yesterday...and most people being trained to bite on the emotionally 'hot' component of news & commentary seemed to miss was this part - so I will say it again:
See how easy it is to have someone 'grab you' with a 'hot' topic and how easy it is to get sucked in to debate and belief-testing? That was my point...the whole Cold War and since has been about power over people, not power by the people. Bread and circuses, bread and circuses. Aikido by the PTB.
Too Much Gov't Dept.
Bad move: In comes Big Government and slaps the guy with penalties for feeding the bears because it's dangerous to humans.
But the real lesson is about the danger of government to freedom. Way I look at it is if a guy wants to feed bears on his own property, the danger is greater from government than the bears. Know what I'm sayin?
Danger to neighbors? About the first time a bear came in my yard looking for food (which I could be mistaken for) a triple-tap of the 9 might solve that in short order. But do we need government putting people in jail and fining them in the wilds of Alaska, fer cryin out loud?
Or, since America is being massively dumbed down, do we need to have a whole society of shepherds out there to tend the sheep and cull the flock?
Oh, silly me, why of course we do...more government is better...how silly of me to imagine otherwise. Golly, don't know what got into me.
R&R Daily If you ever did any time in broadcasting you'd be thinking "R&R? You mean like Radio & Records?" (now part of Billboard, but I digress...hey! imagine that? Me...digressing?)
Where were we? Oh yeah...back in the old days R&R meant one thing but today - thanks to our pals with the servers and predictive linguistics (or was that linguini?) we know that R&R is Rebellion & Revolution...which gets us smack onto Kyrgyzstan...where demonstrators are trying to take over state radio and television offices.
Control the media, control the county...got it? Which neatly weaves into my next rabid spew about....
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Coping: The Stealing the Internet Show Answer me this: If the FCC has the power to 'regulate networks' satellites, ham radio, family radio service gear, and telephone rates and such, how come Comcast and other Big corpgov outfits (I infer this because they spend a lot of dough on lobbying) possibly WIN the battle to kill net neutrality?
Yet, this is exactly the hollow-to-the-point of phony-sounding charade we're seeing as a court ruled yesterday in a manner that lays down the foundation for the death of net neutrality.
Of course the FCC offered an immediate statement on the issue:
Commissioner Michael Copps' comments were even more explanatory:
Sounds good, if only superficially. But here's the thing: In the world of corpgov, e.g. 'money flow' of this and that, there's no way that our soon to be neutered-congress won't make any kind of promises and deals with closed/corpnet advocates in return for support both financially and in shaping public opinion as we come up on elections this fall. That's just how the real world works, sorry to say.
I've been writing quite literally for years that it's only a matter of time until the Internet goes the way of Radio in the first Depression and the powers of corpgov (the government/corporate alliances) will stifle freedom to peaceably assemble on the net without licensure (or economic barriers) which is tantamount to squashing freedom of speech and a host of other anti-Constitutional moves.
But, you've seen this coming as the corpgov types got rid of the 1930's ban on concentration of media in major markets and it's all been baked in the cake ever since - just a matter of seeing the cake about done.
Not am I so old that I actually read the Constitution and the Bill of Rights, but I remember when media concentrations were banned and all radio stations had to demonstration annually via the community ascertainment process how they were addressing the public interest, needs, and concerns.
While I hope it doesn't happen, what seems likely is a nicely run "play" where the government will talk a good line in public and will be ruled against by the pro-corp Courts and oh, so sorry...there goes the equality of access on the net.
Care to bet?
Call the Fashion Police Someone musta lit up a big doobie in North Korea to come up with the idea that "N. Korea leader sets world fashion trend: Pyongyang." -- Lawdahmighty: That is like me claiming to set IQ records. Where's Mr. Blackwell when we need him? (I mean besides dead...)
Message Board 1. Trying to get hold of the Swirly guy - who did the crop circle rotating software - may have a small SQL project for you. 2. Send in recipes that can be cooked in a single pot - starting to collect those: george@ure.net Might be a fine Second Depression Cookbook project - for when we're not eating bread at the circus.
Fumes Been busy with a house guest this week, so not presactly our normal schedule...normal shall return - some day soon.
Tuesday April 6, 2010 Fed Notes Just out in the past few minutes (link to source):
The market reaction (at least so far) has been muted. (slow readers?) Why, this could be a book, in some circles...a little something for everyone in the plot. Lack of market reaction may be a financial expression of WTF? --- More than 227 quakes on the USGS site...gotta wonder (sez one reader) what kind of economic stimulus a major earthquake would be...not to mention shifting the sheeple from seeing a Depression 2.0 in front of their noses, eh?
Nightmare: Losing California Although it hasn't qualified anywhere near the levels normally associated with a "great quake" (i.e. 8.0 or huge loss of life), this week's quake in the supper regions of Baja and into California certainly has me looking at California and wondering "What If?"
In particular, I'm pondering what could happen if a key food-producing region - like the Imperial Valley - immediately north of the 7.2 quake's epicenter - had to go 'off-line' due to subsidence - sinking - of the land back into the sea?
The kind of headlines that ramp up these fears include "At quake's epicenter, water gurgled from ground". Gets me to wondering "Why?" Could some of the land be settling - sinking - in the region? --- The biggest town in Imperial County is El Centro....which in case you've forgotten geography, we're reminded by Wikipedia that:
Calexico, barely nine miles south-southeast by air, but a bit longer if you stick to I8 and turn south on California Highway 111 - just over the border from the quake's epicenter - has an elevation of a whopping 7-feet.
Our interest is mainly socioeconomic and the main thing about the Imperial Valley - again referring to Wikipedia is that:
Oh...$1-billion worth of food every year. Check...got it.
Of course the worry about subsidence in California is probably just a self-inflicted nightmare coming from too many reads of predictive linguistics....BUT...
A 5:30 AM check of the USGS Earthquake Site (here) showed that as of this morning there had been 140 quakes listed...just so far today and yesterday had an amazing547 quakes listed, the vast majority guess where?
As my predictive colleague would remind me "Keep your monkey-mind in check!" Roger that...but between you and me...I'll keep an antenna array pointed out west, look at the USGS site every couple of hours and be watching for stories about land changes of elevation relative to sea level you-know-where. --- 25 miners dead in a WV coal mine blast. Gotta wonder how much earth is moving around lately under the radar (or, more accurately laser) thresholds of seismography equipment. --- One other thing to tuck away: Heard from a well-informed source that the US gov't types are all over the place trying to get a consortium of private and university systems to go real-time.
Won't mention which group but you might grok "Plate Boundary Observatory"...juss sayin'
The Other Losing California Route If the quakes don't take down California, the budgets will: You see the Zerohedge report that "Los Angeles likely to exhaust Reserve Fund by Mat 10, to be in the Red by the end of June." --- In the red or in the Pacific this oughta be some marvel to watch unfolding.
Inquiring Minds, further Wonders Apparently I gave you a bit of a bum steer in Monday's report when I posted the link to the Federal Reserve Sunshine Meeting Notice about the emergency meeting (expedited procedures) for a "Review and determination by the Board of Governors of the advance and discount rates to be charged by Federal Reserve Banks."
I must have misread the part of their meeting notice that said (quoting here):
Like sometime in this century maybe? --- This afternoon, click on by about 1:15 PM (again - sorry) when the minutes of the March FOMC meeting will (gotta add supposedly) be released. I say supposedly, but like the Monday meeting (probably to tweak the minutes of the last meeting into something which will 'fly' based on events since the last meeting, but that's just a supposition on my part.
Pardon my higher expectations. I called the FRB media line yesterday a couple of times to ask about this stuff. Got voicemail - and I don't do voicemail....which near as I can tell is the most polite form of sand-bagging a reporter encounters.
Nukes Nuked? Interesting piece in the NY Times about how president "Obama limits when U.S. would use Nuclear Arms". --- Frankly, I'm not much of a historian, but seems to me that limiting use of nukes and removing ambiguity from the equation is not a good thing. Reason? Part of statesmanship has always been somewhat akin to poker: I'm talking about bluffing.
A good poker player like the art of the bluff because often an opponent's imagination is the most powerful tool in the arsenal. It's be like removing the kinds and queens from a deck of cards. Not only does it change the game (a lot) but it also bounds the bluffing differently.
More to the point, nukes have always been a 'poison pill' - and the McNamara era of the MAD defense (mutually assured destruction) seemed pretty reasonable.
I've thought through what the American response ought to be if a nuclear terrorist attack were every carried out and I come back to eye-for-an-eye.
If a group of terrorists were ever to nuke an American city, and if the identity of the perpetrators could be absolutely and positively concluded then a return nuke to their homeland with a huge global PR campaign: "Don't Tread on US" and "This nuke is the return of an atrocity perpetrated by your xyz extremists. There's no attacking America's civilian population without putting your own civilian population on the line...you now have 14-seconds to square up with whoever cause here it comes..." --- Asymmetric warfare is actually enhanced by a "no nukes" policy...and not in America's favor. I'd much prefer a president who would make it clear that a stick in America's eye would result in two eyes blinded and broken bones to boot.
To be sure, such a "See that and raise you two nukes" statement might not be particularly palatable to the world, but the way I figure it is a nuclear response to terror would make religious extremism a lot more palatable to the perps.
It all comes down to kill ratios - not a nice topic at breakfast, but consider why suicide bombings take place: The perps load up one bomber qand take out 20 to 100 people.
Now, imagine what would happen if each time the perps set off a single bomb that kills 100 people, what the death of 10,000 people via available technical means would do? It would raise the stakes and more important, as Chairman Mao taught: The people are like the sea and the guerilla swims in it.
I expect a few glazed holes in the ground (wherever terrorists are supported)and the 'sea of people' would suddenly offer no quarter to the terrorists.
But at long as the kill ratios are favorable toward the guerillas/jihadistas, the outcome long-term is in their favor.
So, distasteful as defending nuclear weapons may be, this seems to me like a stupid way to conduct national security. But, isn't this always how it goes? Politicians make political decisions and the warriors who are very good at their jobs are bounded which is why guys like Schwarzkopf and others hang it up sometimes in disgust.
Crimes are best prevented by surety of punishment and near as I can figure the recidivism rate of dead perps is zero. --- Emotionally intense? What's key here is that this is an emotionally HOT item and probably won't matter in the time left.. I'll be back after checking the seismographs. Likely just another PTB feint/distraction with high emotional content and part of the 'building tension period' toward July and to be spun around into a hardening of American belligerence in areas where the real reasons for war include things like the heroin business.
Life in the 'Revolution/Rebellion' Memetime Couple of items percolating this morning along with round two of Mrs. Olson's finest: One is the dispute going on in Monroe County Tennessee where a citizen fellow attempted a citizen's arrest and the local gendarmerie took issue with it and threw him in the clink.
The guts of this act of rebellion/revolution seems to be what happens when local government isn't 'cleaning up' the criminals and the local people get just plain sick of it and take matters into their own hands. It's then the locals seem to come down on the good guys who are trying and still ignoring the perps in the background.
Oh - then the folks who are trying to simply clean up their community get squashed by the PTB minions who weren't doing their job in the first place because crime is guess what? BIG Business! Think: Design Patterns.
We notice that Trend Analyst/Future Forecaster Gerald Celente writes up "April 15 Tax Day more Protests and Demonstration" are in the works.
I assume you've seen the sites like onlinetaxrevolt.com?
This is Help? Department Interesting story about how a big bank reportedly told people to stop making their mortgage payments - saying it was the only way to get federal mortgage aid - and then repo'ed their homes out from under them. Details on the Courthouse News Service site, but makes you want to puke, doesn't it? On the other hand, if you don't know this is regular corporate tactics then you really have no idea how screwed up the world really is...
Fine Times, These "Toyota faces legal dilemma as well as record fine". --- Gets me to wondering something: When the gov't gets the record ($16.4 million) fine money, do they distribute it to people who had the car problems? Wanna bet?
The Former Windy City Gonna have to come up with a new name for "Smile You're on Candid Chicago" besides Windy City since there are more cameras there than anywhere, it's being reported.
How Many on Food Stamps Now? 39.4-million Americans as of January says an LA Times report. As I send in quarterly taxes today, I'll try to keep in mind some of it does keep people alive, although I wonder how much tax dough goes into killing (or getting ready to kill) and how much into feeding humans...that'd be an interesting ratio to watch.
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Coping: Day before Tomorrow Apparently, I'm not the only one who's had a "California earthquake" dream. Here's one from a reader:
Don't know, either. I made a note to my subconscious that in the future, if there are going to be hints like "Wednesday Los Angeles" to please include a date on the event, although the note back from my subconsacious pointed out that the time domains are totally different...
Goat Raising A reader pointed out a recent "Mother Earth News" article on raising goats. Something most people don't understand about goats is that they are marvelous 'terraforming" machines. You can take the wildest piece of East Texas and within a couple of years, the goats will transform even the most overgrown and tangled land into something manageable.
Seriously, goats don't strip off topsoil like mechanized equipment, they eat most everything (even pine needles occasionally...which takes a stronger stomach than mine). With our little herd up around 30-something, about time to trade out our prize billy (Dick Chinney) to bring in fresh bloodlines, but really, the lazy man's way to terraforming.
WuJo: UFO's and Sheep The story this week in the UK Telegraph about "Unexplained sheet attacks 'caused by aliens in UFOs' farmer's claim" is - near as I can tell - the British Isles version of the Western US cattle mutilations. --- Being as I'm a problem-solver at heart, gotta wonder what it would do to the UFO DNA sampling program if we had enough wolves in sheep's clothing around? ---- UFO's doing Passover or Easter shopping?
National Tartan Day Since Ure is from the Scottish Ewar and McEwar lineage, I'd be remiss if I didn't mention this is National Tartan Day. --- Adult Humor section - skip this part if you're easily offended, although I have no idea what you're doing here if you are: My favorite Tartan story comes from the collection of nimble-witted answers to the inevitable question "What do you wear under a kilt?
If the one asking is a man, the correct answer is "You wife's lipstick" and if the questioner is a female, the answer is "Your lipstick with any luck..."
Monday April 5, 2010 Quakes & Fed: Double Jitter Monday I don't know which one of two stories is more worrisome this morning: The massive swarming of earthquakes south of the Imperial Valley/Salton Sea area between Baja and mainland Mexico, or today's emergency meeting of the Federal Reserve. Both seem to be incredibly important, yet in some media, there's only passing concern about the quakes and some not even bothering to mention the Fed meeting. --- We can start with the earthquake story because it's not as complicated as the financial ramifications of the Fed meeting and peripheral impacts of a rate hike. You may recall that in last week's report, I mentioned a really strange dream that I had on Tuesday (the 30th of March) which mentioned "Wednesday - Los Angeles" in connection with a large quake - odd enough and vivid enough to mention in a column. Since we didn't get a quake in L.A. last week on Wednesday, I blew it off as 'dream noise'. today, I'm not so sure.
The reason is the Sunday quake in Baja California (near Mexicali) which popped 7.2 on the Richter scale.
What was even stranger was in last week's report I mentioned how I'd have the ham radio beam antenna pointed out west 'just in case' but I never got around to hooking up my phone patch (which connects a ham radio to local telephone lines, enabling people to make telephone calls via ham radio in emergency conditions). That's back at the top of my To-Do list today. --- Just to give you an idea of the significance of this event: the USGS website listed 211 earthquakes from the time of the 7.2 shaker near Mexicali Sunday until this morning about 5:30 AM Central when I got to looking at things. Of all these quakes, 114 were in Baja, California, a few were closer to Sonora Mexico, but a pretty good number (85) were in southern California. --- With the beam pointed out west last night, one fellow I talked to who was north of San Diego a bit said he was out on the golf course when the quake happened and didn't feel a thing, but his wife called him on the phone and informed him that the house was 'moving around a lot'. Another ham told me (also from the area just north and east of LA that he'd noticed the water in his Jacuzzi was sloshing over into the pool, but no damage to his home, except his swimming pool pump system got screwed up. Then came a couple of mobile stations in LA - all with good signals such that there ought to be good coms from the area...just in case. --- When Cliff & I were on CoastToCoast last week with George Noory, one of the items covered was the predictive linguistic expectation that we would have (probably) 6 more 'great quakes" this year. While the 7.2 and only two dead is not a 'great quake' the amount of aftershocks are a concern because there's always the possibility that movement along the eastern periphery of the Pacific Ring of Fire could be setting up tensions elsewhere.
I mean, when you think about it, there's an interesting spacing of quakes shaping up here. The Haiti quake hit on January 12th, the Chile quake struck on February 27th, and now we have a 7.2 hitting in the upper Baja. So the predictive linguistics of 6-more 'great quakes' which I'm the first to admit sounded 'nutty' when we talked about them at the time of the Haiti quake seem to be supported by events drifting off in that direction.
Does it mean there will necessarily be six more? No, but the odds seem better than zero that we will have multiple flurries of headlines about quakes as the year progresses. --- Given free reign, monkey-mind can start asking some pretty interesting questions here. Like (for example) is there any link to the latest NASA Shuttle launch up to the space station? And, what is president Obama going to say about the future of the US Space Program?
Sometimes I wonder if the international space station (ISS) is kind of 'human insurance policy to reseed the earth should something really BIG happen down here on the ground...a worthy ponder, I think. At least till the quake picture settles down.
I'll grant you that these concerns could be overblown a bit, but it's Monday, the coffee is going to work and the numbers...I keep coming back to these are: 211 quakes worldwide on the USGS site since the Sunday 7.2 Baja event and 202 aftershocks. You work the percentages and tell me if Tums or Tagamet is in order? Headlines are happily reporting that the quakes so far have not moved over to the San Andreas. I'd still urge anyone in SoCal to double-check plans and beef up food & water supplies, just in case.
The Emergency Fed Meeting The MainStreamMedia is showing its complete lack of comprehension when it comes to financial reporting -- once again -- as the number of stories out this morning about the 'emergency Fed rate meeting' are near-zero. Oh, sure, you can find a few sites that are on top of things (like this one) but when the Fed holds an unscheduled meeting on Discount Rate Policy, oh gee, don'tcha think this is a big deal?
Here's the announcement which is not exactly front-page on the Fed site today: =========
========= There used to be a saying among reporters covering State Legislature politics that "No man or his property are safe when the Legislature is in session." My update on that kind of thinking is that "No investor, nor their money is safe when the Fed is holding emergency meetings on anything."
Best I can figure, even a small increase in the discount rate will drive a stake through the heart of the fledgling recovery, but of course, it's not really fledgling if you listened to those BLS jobs figures out on Friday. (I figure most hiring was Census, but who seems to care but us?) I just hope someone on the Fed Board will also look at the ADP figures which showed a net loss and not the politically contrived BLS numbers which may overstate the rate of recovery; perhaps dangerously so.
I'll try to remember and post the update when the rate decision is released, perhaps around 2:15-2:30 PM (EDT) this afternoon. Like I said, in case you weren't completely away: The Fed doesn't meet without an action item likely to be approved.
The $X-billion question: Who's in trouble now?
Stock futures are higher: Am I the lone worrywart on this stuff? Or, are most other investors under some MSM-imposed rock?
Adventures of Gordo the Gold-Seller Meantime, curious to note that British Pee 'Em Gordo the Gold-seller is hailing a move toward a global banking tax. --- What's really going on here is the March to Global Government - not a bad thing per se, as long as you don't mind a Mark of the Beast RFID'ing scheme for any government services, and giving up ever-increasing portions of your daily wages to a whole new layer of super-government which will not be directly responsible to humans; only to the elected layer which will usurp all powers over time anyways.
Think of it as the old kids taunt: "What's mine is mine and what's yours is mine." As they say on the marl road in de Caribbean, mon, "Soon come..."
Rolling Impacts The rest of the day's headlines are along the ho-hum variety, except those which might move with a Fed decision on the discount rate today. Oil, for example is up around $85...worrisome only if you drive or use electricity, or eat. Naw, no worries there. Well, except that predictive linguistic call for inflation roaring later in the year does come into somewhat clearer focus.
You still have time to plant a garden, you know. But, if you want to be a victim of government control on all fronts, just ignore that gardening suggestion. I'm sure there's northing to worry about - all will be well - and government has everything perfectly considered in our best interests. Even those quakes....
Measured Responses The headline "Office vacancy rate hits 16-year high" is a precursor of what? I figure the pending meltdown of commercial real estate.
Unmeasured Response So, reports the WaPo today: A woman tells the Great O we're over-taxed. She gets a whopping 17-minute, 2,500 word reply that has Washington buzzing. Whatzzup about?
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Coping: Flux Rope. Satellite Outages & Birkeland Currents Not often that things work out well, while working out badly, but for some reason that's how things seem to be going around here. My long-time friend who is visiting does a lot of work with something called "subtle energies" and is off to meetings in Florida later this week; he's pretty well-known in the world of subtle energy work, but has held back on writing a book or raising his profile too far; now's not the time to be doing such things.
Curiously, around here there's a kind of sense that this is not the time to be throwing in 110% on this issue, or that; more like it's a time to sit back and watch events unfold while being careful not to be taken in by the 'shock & awe" of affairs, although an emergency Fed meeting and all the shaking in the area south of the Salton Sea in SoCal is certainly reason to be a tad jittery.
But with not too much speculation, we could be witnessing the evolution of something which has been in Cliff's predictive linguistics modeling for at least 10-years. "sun disease".
Let me back up: Our Canadian Prairies correspondent reported in an overnight note that the Northern Lights were going nuts last night:
All of which points out that the Sun, which has been in quite a period of lull, seems to have come back quite energetically -- indeed so much so that there was a solar "PRESTO" alert issued on Saturday which pushes up the blood pressure a bit...pay particular attention to the highlight:
When the Earth's magnetosphere starts being slapped by this, or that, I get concerned about 'as above, so below" kinds of effects - and whether there is a relationship between gamma ray bursts (GRB's) and earthquakes or the arrival of what's called an "interplanetary flux rope" in this PRESTO alert.
The "flux rope" sure sounds like the "h-field" part of Jim McCanney's 'electric solar system model', where he postulates actual 'arcing' from the Sun to the planets (or does it go the other way...don't recall at this hour). But regardless, when CME energy shows up, really BIG effects start to happen on Earth.
Don't know how aware you are of the THEMIS project at NASA (not to be confused with the European NGO of the same name), but NASA has been looking at this stuff, too, and discoveries and predictions made by Norwegian explorer Kristian Birkeland may need to be reconsidered. From Wikipedia come this interesting sidebar to the concept of 'flux ropes":
What's pretty cool about all this is that gobs and oodles of energy show up at the polar regions. Back to the NASA THEMIS Project Wiki entry:
So, if anything, Jim McCanney's claims about 'electric solar system' seems quite demonstrably true, but I'd add a small footnote that the E-field (electric field) might be better framed as an H-field (magnetic) effect.
Don't know how much welding you've done lately with a stick or wire welder, but what does arc welding create? Low voltage but incredibly high currents: Heat - all kinds of heat and enough to melt pretty much any metal in the way.
What this does is something that doesn't get distilled down to plain, ordinary, everyday (comprehensible over Cheerios) language. But the "flux ropes" and the H-field (magnetics) seem able to provide sufficient current that they provide a dandy power source which could - in turn - power plasma/matter creation (or more correctly matter condensates) at toward the center of the planet.
This is totally cool stuff, except for one small got'cha: As the Sun's flux-levels get turned up, and more ropes arrive, what does that do to the temperature of the earth's core and possibly (under the plasma expansion model) what does this do to the little things floating on the surface of the planet like, oh, I dunno, Haiti, Chile, and now Mexicali? --- All of which might sound really wonky except for two things. Just in the last few minutes, this showed up:
And two: I can't seem to get rid of that image of "Wednesday - Los Angeles" out of my head.
While UrbanSurvival is all about long wave economics, there are some issues that (poor pun here) eclipse the importance of money. Fundamental core changes of the Third Rock is at the top of that list. If you get the odd power blip or data loss over the next day or so, that's probably got something to do with it.
Before the chart, a little background: Once upon a time, a long while ago, I observed during my quest for 'truth' in economics, that the PowersThatBe, the talking heads on the teeve, and the other information sources that actively engage in the programming of humans not to think, had conveniently swept several trillions of dollars that disappeared in the Internet Bubble's bursting (since spring 2000) under the rug. Surely, it wasn't unnoticed by the thousands of people who called brokers and said "Where is my money?" "Gone, but hang in there as you're a long term investor!" was about all they heard back.
So one of our charts for Peoplenomics subscribers oughta be widely circulated - it shows that if you line up the peak of the Dow in January 2000 with the peak in early September of 1929, we're on a very very close replay track. Much closer than even the chart shows if you were to back out inflation, and put in the effects of 1929 deflation, but that'd be real work, and I'm sort of lazy if the truth be told.
No, it's not a perfect replay of 1929, but history doesn't repeat exactly, it only rhymes. So think of this as the rhymes and the crimes chart:
"George, that's only a coincidence!" your monkey-mind will protest.
Why sure it is...you bet. A 9½ year long coincidence...yessir....just a coincidence, I'm sure...
Write when you get rich,
George Ure, The People's Economist
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