Reader Note: A couple of folks were wondering if my site was down on Friday. No. But,

sometimes the internet gets slow along the way here and there...my site is usually more

dependable than the 'net. If you ever run into this problem, go to

This being the weekend, the fresh content - including a market crash advisory - is available

This page will be update about 8 AM Monday (central time)...have a great weekend!

The market opens today with a slight upward bias, since this is quadruple witching day.

Gold is just tearing to the upside, approaching $1,260 which as my commodity guy (JB at

Triple Witch Day, and is up another $10 as I type this missive. Gold is now at

$1,259.20, up $10.70 (Aug) and Silver is following suit being up 13.4 cents at

$18.910. US$ is flat, down 4.7 points at 85.935. Petro products are lower lead by

Crude being down $1.09 at 75.70. Gold closing at its highest and making newer

highs going into the Triple Witch Friday, is a harbinger for those with the eye to

see. We are truly in an event that will make many poor and very few are

prepared to be rich. Gold’s new life of contract high so far today is

$1,260.90….It will be hard for the anti-gold traders to do anything else but

watch the higher prices come in and maybe find a new level to keep Gold under.

This day is just as important as March 25th, when Andrew Maquire revealed to

the world and his story explaining the Silver market manipulation.

JB tells me that some of his clients have not yet been able to secure May silver contract

deliveries from the supposedly "warehousing" bank involved, which only adds to our

thoughts that there's hanky-panky in silver-counting...and a certain warehousing bank seems

to be stalling deliveries.

Meantime, a friend of mine in the wholesale gold business in the Pacific Northwest is

thinking that gold will hit $3,000 an ounce by the end of the year which wouldn't surprise us

in the least.

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Only question is will that come from massive inflation going on by then, or because demand

for a paper currency alternative rockets? 'Course it doesn't matter to people who bought (as

we did) silver when it was under $7 in 2005...

Government continues to water down the purchasing power of the Buck and thus your

money's not as good here, anymore.

Several readers have asked for clarification of my outlook for purchasing power, stores of

value, and equivalents. Like this guy:

George, you have a way with words, and you know economics, and obviously you

know how to think outside the box. Could you explain one thing to me?

Why is deflation supposed to be a bad thing?

We’ve had inflation all my life – I was born in 1946, a year of massive inflation as

wartime price controls came off. Wouldn’t you expect that 60+ years of inflation

would be – should be – compensated for at some point by some serious deflation?

What’s the alternative? Inflation forever?

I realized that the stock market will suffer. I realize that businesses will contract. I

realize that we’ll have to suffer high unemployment rates. But these are short-term

pain, and social safety nets such as Social Security do provide the SOCIAL security

they were designed to provide – that is, they assure that consumer demand won’t

entirely disappear, because people will have some minimum amount needed to pay

for essentials, which will keep the economy limping along in ways it couldn’t in

1930.

Why is deflation a bad thing?"

Simple answer: Because people lose their homes.

tripartite model of reality:

inflation.

smart money folks I know are betting on a further 50% decline in housing prices from here

over the next couple of years.

underlying (but unsustainable) 7% printing festival over at the Treasury's Bureau of

Engraving less the pernicious decline in velocity of money through the system. With me so

far?

Many economists and business pundits have been sucked into the black & white version of

things. The glass is half full or it's half empty kind of thinking.

We Support

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Every so often, you'll come across folks like my deflationist pal (Dr.) Jas Jain who has the

good sense to step back and ask why are we talking half full or half empty where the glass

has just been turned over?

to reality and economic group-think. Don't know as I ever mentioned (and he's too modest to

himself, I reckon) Jas holds a PhD in digital signal processing and holds a half-dozen, or so

patents for things like "Clock synchronization and dynamic jitter management for voice over

IP and real-time data"...So when I offer you quotes from Jas pay attention because he was

guy.

been due to consumption debt growth in excess of the GDP growth, i.e., the ratio of

consumption debt, by households as well as governments, to the GDP has been

finally arrived with a vengeance. Therefore, we don’t have an under consumption

growing at all. You can ask Dr. Bernanke. In a fiat currency regime it is going to

be very difficult to fight deflation after the Fed and the Federal govt are done with

opening up the spigots! Americans are going to be put on a diet. The aggregate

demand would go negative with low calories (less dollars in the pockets!) diet!!"

All of which gets around to this real simple answer to the "Why is inflation bad?" question.

now and consume in the future when the goods would be more pricey. At some point when

prices get high enough, everyone wants to sell own and sell something for huge paper

profits. Take the real estate bubble on the way up, just as an example.

incentive. Once deflation sets it, the deconsumption motive becomes embedded such that

the less people spend, the more prices fall, which leads to reinforcement of a vicious cycle

toward zero economic activity! I'll wait - it'll be cheaper in two years! That thinking is selffulfilling.

From a governmental perspective, inflations are always desirable because they can be

throttled. However, since most Americans are (to borrow some classic Jain

terminology) "born & bred dopes" they get hooked on the "free lunch" and in time the excess

has to be dealt with...by deflation.

always closer to zero consumption than infinite consumption. Think of cyclical economics

as having its consumption curve resting on the x-axis zero line. WW II got the US off the

bottom of the last curve and the way off the presently developing one will likely be similar.

I expect we are a week or two from entering a months-long economic crash window though

late summer.

The reason most traditional economic types will miss its arrival is they could be mislead by a

slight recent increase in consumer sentiments. When an economy 'rolls over' and the

Debtberg sinks world, all the 'confidence' headlines in the world won't overcome the current

12% annualized decline in revolving consumer debt which is incredibly deflationary. And

over time, banks will have to straighten their books on nonperforming loans, which when it

happens I figure to nonrevolving real home debts into double-digit declines as well.

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At that moment, deconsumption will explode onto the scene and combined with global food

shortages, ought to make Depression 2.0 undeniable by Christmas.

push us there. Remember my "Easy Al: the House-flipper's Pal" bumper stickers?

---

It's like the botched stall recovery in an aircraft: Plane stalls, you shove the nose down and

get air going over the wings again. Your genitals may feel like they're between your ears for

a few moments and 300-500 feet of elevation drop, but that momentary discomfort is a lot

better than being with a pilot who 'doesn't want you to feel discomfort'...so they just mush

along at just below stall speed unwilling to make the big control surface moves that would

save the plane if done at altitude.

Figuring out that half-measures ensure economic disaster is as easy as figuring out that

a "protracted stall" is just another way of saying "Crash about to happen!" The closer we get

to the ground, the more bad piloting will become apparent.

Planet dies due to power-tripping yahoos...

Representative (republicorp) Joe Barton recent stuck his foot in his mouth by accusing the

Obama administration of conducting a 'shakedown" of BP. Apparently, Barton's staff must

have believed the idiot-level initial flow reports, or this was just corporate apoligism at its

worst.

fraction of an inch of losing his republicorp minion...I mean "leadership" position...in

committee seniority; a kind of Washington equivalent to goatmaster.

Delaware is coming out with new drivers licenses which will have all kinds of additional

(certificate or current passport).

Since one of their plans is to store pictures of people in electronic media so it can be

scanned by face recognition software, I keep coming back to my idea of patenting George

Ure as a word mark in the Trademark office, and images, voice, and fingerprints all being

Gives me an idea, though. I propose to open a drug testing center where I will personally

test and rank every drug out there: Oxy's, various meths, ecstasy, blow, and every kind of

weed brought in from Mexico, and so forth. And for testing all these I'll only charge $2-mil

a year. I'm sure that would have merit, too, wouldn't it? I mean as long as we're finding new

and creative ways to piss away tax money...here, let me help.

Say, that reminds me, I never heard back on my offer to manage the Mustang Ranch, either...

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=== snip and save section ===

Had a delightful afternoon Thursday as a gentleman from the Kansas City who came down

to the ranch to take delivery of the red 1986 whale tail that I've been enjoying the past year

and a half. Elaine & I have had some great fun with the car - had it in a car show, a few

short jaunts around the countryside. Although I 'lost money' on the car, selling it for less

than I paid, the cost was nothing like the beating I would have taken on just about any other

big boy 'toy' out there.

As it goes, a Porsche is not nearly as costly as a boat to maintain. Kept in salt water, as our

old 40' offshore sailboat was, just the hauling and bottom paint was running about $2-grand

every couple of years, and that's before the diver every 3-4 months to wipe speed-stealing

slime off the bottom, install new zincs, and so forth. (The sacrificial metal that prevents

underwater electrolysis of expensive parts like props, shafts, and through holes which in a

worst-case can sink a boat...). Then we had to pony up about $700/month to 'rent a hole in

the water' every month, which I've never quite understood; a matter of perspective and what

moorage tenant buy.

Over the coarse of life, I think I've owned a Porsche maybe 10-years of it, but during those

times, there wasn't a car I'd rather be driving regardless of the price. They're really fun, but

the 10-years living on a sailboat was fun, too.

somewhat judiciously.

Which gets us to hatching the plot of our next adventure....which we'll be doing more of this

weekend.

One possibility is that with real estate prices low - and possibly dropping further, we have

considered the possibility of moving up to the Bend area of eastern Oregon, or maybe

waterfront in Washington state. Several reasons, but the primary one is a desire to be closer

to family & the kids. With Elaine's son in Seattle getting hitched next month, and my three

in that area settling down, imperceptibly at times, grandparenting may occur.

on the other side of it, we don't want to be an overly convenient daycare center. Grand kids

should be seen but not heard.

Elaine's other boys like in flung places like Grand Junction, Colorado, and the Phoenix &

Payson areas of Arizona. So, I thinking something about midway between Seattle &

Colorado would be nice. Eastern Oregon is nice, and I wouldn't mind winters so we could

catch up on skiing, but too far east since we'd be getting close to Yellowstone which is a

potential set of issues of its own.

Or, we may buy a plane...something like a Cessna Cardinal -- watching those right now.

Tough decisions, these.

But it brings me around to the point I wanted to share with you: I think what goes a long

ways toward keeping people "young" is to keep doing 'young' things with your life - and the

True, it would be hard to pull up stakes and go build another survival platform; we've got

about 7-years of work into this one and it's got everything we'd need to survive and prosper

under almost any foreseeable conditions. Because we're almost 200-miles upcountry from

the Gulf, I'm not particularly worried about the safety of our homestead here in East Texas.

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where there's no hangar space available, or 16 miles to another airport, where there may be a

hangar. This part of the country has enough hail, you don't want to leave an airplane outside

in thunderstorm weather on the off chance the paint will be scrubbed off or the winges

dented up.

As a consequence, this weekend doing some 'active futuring' to see if there's any better mix

of survival platform, proximity to kids, and sustainable retirement situation possible at a

decent price.

Keeping a fun-filled life on course does force asking though questions, too. Like "George

medical and/or Elaine lost hers?"

Along the same vein, planning for the unthinkable continues: "What if there wasn't gasoline

to fuel this current 'flight of fancy'?"

I figure up to 10% of 'action' time being devoted to planning makes sense. Your clock's your

own in life. Periodic weekends of "Are we getting the best possible mix of life's spiritual,

economic, and intellectual offerings and having fun to boot?" deserve to be answered often.

If the answer tips to thinking there's a way to improve our personal enjoyment of Life's

curious theme park-like ride, well, then we go do that.

We've become very fond of going to new places every few years and doing new things.

Grist for the column, fun to live closer to clients, and so on.

Next month, we'll be spending 10-days up in the Pacific Northwest - some business, some

pleasure, but the whole time, we'll be looking at it as going through the buffet line of Life to

see if any new dishes sound good.

Like the old Zen story goes: "When you pay for a $2 latte with a $20 bill, change is

inevitable..."

A number of weeks back, when the GOM flow rate estimates were running absurdly low, our

Peoplenomics.com subscriber newsletter had a short analysis that came up with 2-million a

day (or more) of flow rate. This morning there was this note from a subscriber:

"George...you must be psychic ...or just plain smart dude. You are smart...and

very analytical to boot. Keep up the excellent work."

Yeah, we do try to use the rickety time machine to keep one step ahead of the devil, so to

speak. This weekend for Peoplenomics subscribers: The Diaspora Handbook (part 1). After

next weekend (cleverly name Diaspora Handbook (part 2), I'll make it available for nonsubscribers.

Also, something coming up Monday: a new ebook from a friend about survival gardening.

Makes a fine companion to JB's ebook MyGrowPonics (see ad below).

Speaking of the word "Diaspora", depending on which media source you choose, you can

upwards of half a million. The death toll from the chaos there will pass 200-this weekend, if

you have an office betting pool going now that the NBA season leaves us with not much to

gamble on...outside the stock market, I mean.

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but elsewhere it's simplified to simply an automaton, robot, or machine. This weekend, with

my knee bunged up, Universe delivered some raw wryrony: The realization that the problem

of economic displacement of humans has now reached a 'knee' such that there may be no

long-term recovery from the current decline short of near, no make that total economic

collapse. The case is laid out in a hypothetical lecture by a vaporous Professor Ure as he

describes "Ure's Knee" - a kind of unrecoverable economic stall condition caused by a lack

of widespread productive employment.

If you have an especially vivid dream that seems to have something to do with the future,

please write it down so others can look it over for possible future/predictive values. Simple

The folks at Maxa Research have put together a short video (sound track by guess who?) that

I don't usually get all whipped up about software, but this is one of those dandy tools that just

simply works great. First thing I put on my new computer when I got it was Avira Antivirus

and Maxa Cookie Manager (MCM). Either follow the on-screen download instructions

of simply click:

http://www.urbansurvival.com/setupMCMstdGU.exe

Once you try it out, to upgrade to the fully functioning version, just click the upgrade button

(!) on the upper right hand side for the $35 unlock to get it to remove even those nasty and

highly intrusive 'non-browser specific' cookies. Bonus: You computer may run faster.

Having a hard time making ends meet? (Like who isn't, right?) A good starting point to

better match up income with outgo is our $10 e-book "How to Live on #10,000 a Year...or

less!"

It's an automatic download. It's written in an information dense style: The whole thing runs

about 65 pages, but it gives you a vision of how to not only live on the cheap, but also how

to migrate up the economic foodchain if you have a little hustle left. A bonus section

called "How to Build Anything" should instill confidence if you've never taken on a home

My commodity broker JB Slear and I have written a simple book to get you started on high

density hydroponics. It's an example of how someone with a little creativity, access to a

few 'dollar stores' and willing to try out some new farming techniques can grow an amazing

amount of produce sin a very small space - like even an apartment balcony (if it gets some

sunlight). Sound interesting? It's just $10 bucks here...

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A different take on things - that's what you'll find here most mornings. If you know of

you hated what you read, send the link to all your 'worst enemies'. Like they say in

Burbank, "Ain't no such thing as bad press..."

----

Last week's report is always here.

Thursday June 17, 2010

It always feels like the Oscars when the jobs report comes out. Moments of tension in the

markets...then right at 8:30 Eastern out pops the report:

today. Over the last 12 months, the index increased 2.0 percent before seasonal

adjustment.

For the second month in a row a decline in the energy index accounted for the

seasonally adjusted decrease in the all items index. The index for energy decreased

2.9 percent in May and more than offset a slight increase in the index for all items

less food and energy. The food index was unchanged. Within the energy

component, the gasoline index accounted for most of the decrease, although all the

major energy indexes declined.

The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.1 percent in May, posting a

monthly increase for only the second time this year. Contributing to the May rise

were increases in a number of indexes including shelter, used cars and trucks,

tobacco, apparel, and medical care. The index has increased 0.9 percent over the last

12 months."

But if you take the time to see what the rec3ent Fed money su0pp0ly figures are, you trip

over a 7% YoY increase in M1. While it's not a perfect conclusion and there are lots of ways

to pick nits, to my simple way of thinking when we see the price of goods going down more

than 2.4% annualized and that comes when money stocks M1-wise are up 7%, then the

malaise settling over America is a 9.5% annualized deflation.

Think the stock market is going to hold up for long under that kinda pressure? Hahaha...you

must be kidding!

not want to hear "48% overvalued!" with breakfast so just pretend I didn't mention it.

Big pop in the jobless figures this morning.

claims was 472,000, an increase of 12,000 from the previous week's revised figure

of 460,000. The 4-week moving average was 463,500, a decrease of 500 from the

previous week's revised average of 464,000.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.6 percent for the

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week ending June 5, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week's

unrevised rate of 3.5 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the

week ending June 5 was 4,571,000, an increase of 88,000 from the preceding week's

revised level of 4,483,000. The 4-week moving average was 4,601,500, a decrease

of 21,250 from the preceding week's revised average of 4,622,750.

The fiscal year-to-date average of seasonally adjusted weekly insured

unemployment, which corresponds to the appropriated AWIU trigger, was 5.097

million. "

So what to do is the question. Around here, simple-minded George & his friendly Big

Eastern School econ prof know the answer is "Spur Production!" and everything should take

care of itself.

But after bailing out nonproductive banksters, the Fed has continued to beat the "More

regulation" drum with, most recently, the Squam Lake report which was Blessed by Ben"

this way Wednesday:

Among these are the adoption of a more systemic approach to the supervision

and regulation of financial firms and markets; enhanced capital and liquidity

regulation for financial firms, particularly for systemically important

institutions; improved information collection by regulators and, where possible,

the public release of such information; development of a resolution regime that

would allow the authorities to manage the failure of a systemically important

financial firm in an orderly manner while imposing losses on shareholders and

creditors; and significant strengthening of the financial infrastructure,

particularly for derivatives contracts. The Federal Reserve has supported

legislative changes in all of these areas, and, where possible under current law,

has initiated changes along these lines within its own operations. In the

remainder of my remarks I will elaborate briefly on these recommendations,

with particular attention to how they are currently helping shape regulatory

reform and the Fed's own regulatory and supervisory activities. "

Only a few simple problems with the concept: By the time someone besides us figures out

that production is cratering and banks aren't loaning, we will be so deep into Depression 2.0

that it may be unrecoverable.

It's, of course, already global is you know where to look. For instance...

If you're patient and know where to look, you can watch D2 developing...kinda like watching

cancer...slow but deadly.

Up about seven percent in the past year is the number of families that spent at least one night

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Not to rain on your Cheerios this

morning, but signs like this one are

going up along Interstate 8 in Arizona

and are likely to start appearing in more

places. The tip and pic from a reader:

"I just received this email from a

friend of mine. I called the phone

number on the sign and it was the

area BLM office. The lady who

answered the phone said that this

was actually one of the signs they

have put up because of the problems

being reported in the

area!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Are you kidding

me???!!!???

If you have to squint to get the number it is: 623-580-5500.

Apparently, our government has surrendered and ceded part of Arizona to the

smugglers and cartels of Mexico???

And President Obama is sending 1,200 military "secretaries" to the border states, for

uh, WHAT? To document the problem so someone can send a strongly worded

letter to Mexico!!??!!

Well, seems that there is a whole conspiracy at the national governmental level to turn the 50-

States into the 49 (or fewer) and this is something that Bill Clinton got the ball rolling on by

Executive Order during his tenure, which is why this has been evolving. George Bush didn't

do squat about it and then earlier this year, Obama pulled the plug on the border fencebuilding

project.

I'm willing to give a fair amount of maneuvering room to Obama, but this is absurd. What

happened to the "end the war" promises, too, by the way?

Seems to me there oughta be a legal course of action where politicians can be recalled from

office is they fail to make 'best efforts' to achieve what they promise in their campaigns for

office.

At least to my way of thinking, to promise one thing, then deliver another is tantamount to

voter fraud.

Not that 'net freedom (and freedom to criticize government for 'giving away' Arizona) will

industry-backed, politically chilling bill at its core...

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hero...but not much in the way of recent candidates, seems like...

We'll know we're in D2 for sure when a modern analog emerges...I mean outside

government...

==== snip and save section ===

For some number of weeks now, we've been having a near exchange of ideas on whether

there's anything behind the numerology thinking that somehow the number '8' had special

powers to it, and in particular, the power to attract money.

Well, have a look at the latest crop circle just posted this week over at

interleaved inside of it.

Might be a little complicated to recreate, but with my scanner and Corel graphics, maybe not

so hard after all - using the trace function would probably get me 99% of where I'd want to

go with this.

No sure what it means, other than once again, here is another case of 'talk about it, then it

closed room with a knife, a cook, related to the oil industry and a place called the wall? It

was under the coping section headline "Irwin Allen's Dreams" which can look up in our

===

Back to path here: I continue to collect the user reports from people who have put 8's in their

wallets. For some, it's just a plain bad idea...

"in relation to 8's, i put the number 8 in my wallet a few weeks ago and

promptly lost the wallet a day later. haven't found it since! "

Others are having better luck:

"Sharpie on paper : one 8.

Got a $330 check from the gov a few days later. "

Here's another dandy:

"After reading your story on the number 8, and its potential positive effect on

material affairs, I went ahead and drew a double tetrahedron (which is an 8-

pointed figure), and wrote the number 8 in the three flat sides that were facing

on the image. The cut out image has since gone in my wallet. My girlfriend also

has an 8 in her wallet, and together we're seeing if there's any benefit. Went and

played some table games over the weekend, and sitting at the three card poker

table, I remind my lady of the existence of the number 8, then I sang a little song

about it just messing around, and it put a smile on both our faces. Next hand, I'm

dealt my three cards. Can ya guess what I got? That's right, I got three 8s staring

back at me! I was grinning ear to ear, and although I hadn't bet a wondrous sum

of money, the payout was 30 to 1. Not too shabby if I say so myself. I can safely

say I've shaken hands with the divine 8, and am definitely no worse for the wear.

Next step is winning Powerball! In my mind I've won already. Thanks, George!"

One of these days, I will get my fancy online polling & data analysis software online so I can

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positive experience (winning or finding money unexpected) versus those who try and strike

out?

The other current field of research (in the few minutes permitted such flights of fancy) has to

At the WuJo, where science meets the woo-woo arts, our main test platform for this is a

dreams. If you know of anyone who might be interested, sending them along to post would

be fine, since the data flow right now is only running at the 50-dream per week level.

Not a lot of meaning to it --- yet. I expect that this is one of those items which will take

some time to evolve. In the last week, there has been a tiny (down in the noise) dream level

increasing around fire, and a decrease in dream content categorized as 'air', but remember

What will be very cool to observe is whether the process will capture any dream content

change when we get to the peak of the predictive linguistics 'building tensions' period (which

oughta peak around July 11th, and then lead to a see-saw kind of release period across

summer, or whether there will be an archetype-level change before we get to the huge global

tension release that will be like 4-days worth of 9/11-sized tensions releasing and changing

life forever (once again) come November 8-12 (+/- time drift). If you think of 9/11 as an

kind of thing.

I continue looking for the triggers to all this through every sense-extending/sensory

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enhancer I can think of. Fortunately, the next Shape of Things to Come report from

for the can't tell you yet that will begin the week following.

One of the things that keeps life interesting around here is that I try to keep up with 'best

practices' in computing in the (real) business world. Part & parcel of this is keeping current

with Microsoft Office.

excited...when you spend as much time on a computer as I do (12-hours a day isn't

uncommon, as my butt reminds me) you look forward to new 'power tools' that can drive

personal output even higher.

Unfortunately, Office 2010 will have to wait a bit. The reason's an odd one, so let me

explain in detail just in case Bill or Steve reads the site (not!).

Every so often I buy a piece of software that just works great at its intended purpose...in fact

it works so well at doing what it does that I shun damn near everything else because while

later product might have more bells & whistles, the core software function is as near perfect

as you'll find.

talking before Y2K I think. Built to run on early, early Windows computers, it still runs just

fine. That CD is like a bottle of rare wine. Sure, their latest is much 'mo bettah' but I'm so

used to the old program that I can do everything I need virtually on autopilot.

want when I am cobbling together my columns and despite buying the CoffeeCup HTML

suite, and Expression Web (2.0 and 3.0), FrontPage 2003 has always suited me as a

wonderful standalone editor, which is the mode I use it in.

(which has some really good tools in Outlook, that I'm fond of) I remember spending an hour

& a half on the line with Microsoft support while they figured out how to leave just enough

of required Office 2003 code to support FrontPage 2003, while still getting Office 2007

humming.

Now I'm faced with a daunting problem: Does this mean I'll have to give up my favorite

To be sure, it's not the learning of Expression Web better which slows me down, it's the fact

that when I look at the code generated by FP-03, I notice that Expression Web says

(politely) "Here are a bushel-basket of non-compliant parts of your code..."

While I don't have any problem doing the rollover, it will involve at a minimum cleaning up

the Index page, the daily update page, and perhaps have a dozen more. The payoff might be

that I could go to templates and other non-horse-drawn computing techniques, but I've

always been a Luddite at heart.

So my transition to Office 2010 may be delayed by a week to a few months, since every site

I have (the Dream Center, IndependenceJournal.com, and Peoplenomics, not to mention my

son's medical site...all that would have to be rolled over.

The bottom line being: If you have some legacy Microsoft 2003 product, and you are

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India, by the sound of it, figuring out that the real user question is about 'feature saturation'.

locations on a menu is progress...there's gonna be a learning curve although there's a legacy

menus function...well, you have to make those calls.

Say, here's a fine one for you:

"Hey George , Just got the most bizarre phone call of my life . I was doing my

morning reading and the conversation went something like this . Not word for word

but I want to get what I remember down before my memory screws with it . (I am

overseas ) . Here goes

Me : Hello? Unknown: Allo(she may have said my name .I can't

remember)? oh you speak english . I will do my best .I don't know

you ,but I calling to see if you are aware of the NEW GOV"T That is

coming .

Me:(a million and one things rush thru my head at once at this

statement) I am aware things are changing .

Unknown : So you know God's gov't as written in the bible is coming ?

Me: I know something is coming but whether it is good I don't know

(here I am thinking doesn't evil come before it is replaced in a short

time in the Bible and also dont a lot of people die before that as well ).

Unknown : You don't think God is capable of creating a great New

Gov't ?

Me : My tone of voice changed a bit (I felt my faith in God or as you

call it Universe was being tested) . I know exactly what God is capable

of .I just don't know if what comes next is necessarily good .

Unknown : Okay thank you . Hurry's off phone .hangs up.

What the heck was that George ???? Have any of your readers recvd a call like

this ? New Gov't ? Am I right about the bad coming before the good (my bible study

isn't up to par ? What was I going to be asked to join if I answered the questions

right? I am a little spooked and I wish I was stateside because I could star 69 the

call . And call back to get some answers . If you have any I would appreciate it . "

No clue, dude, but mentioned in today's column in case the unbelievably weird should call

you, too.

About the only thing this might reference is an email going around the net claiming that the

queen of England is going to resign her throne because some guy out of Australia is going to

step forward and take over reins of UK power and he claims to have 'defeated Satan' in May

at some showdown in Australia...

number of wars, oil still flowing from the Gulf, and taxes too high, home values collapsing,

and the value of money along with it, Satan not only isn't defeated, his productivity numbers

are even higher than the ones reported by gov't.... (Wonder if he's rolled over his minions to

Office 2010?)

People so want to be led, they'll buy anything promising 'change'...they just mindlessly

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Wednesday June 16, 2010

Just out from the Fed:

in April. Manufacturing output climbed 0.9 percent last month, its third

consecutive monthly gain of about 1 percent, and was 7.9 percent above its yearearlier

level. Outside of manufacturing, the output of mines edged down 0.2

percent, and the output of utilities increased 4.8 percent. The jump in utilities

reflected unseasonably warm temperatures that boosted air conditioning usage in

May after uncharacteristically temperate weather in April reduced heating

demand. At 103.5 percent of its 2002 average, total industrial output in May was

7.6 percent above its year-earlier level. The capacity utilization rate for total

industry rose 1.0 percentage point to 74.7 percent, a rate 6.2 percentage points

above the rate from a year earlier but 5.9 percentage points below its average

from 1972 to 2009.

A couple of press releases out from the government this morning seem destined to weigh on

markets at the open today, after a romp to the upside for a little skewering of the shorts: One

BUILDING PERMITS

Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in May were at a

seasonally adjusted annual rate of 574,000. This is 5.9 percent (±2.2%) below

the revised April rate of 610,000, but is 4.4 percent (±2.6%) above the May 2009

estimate of 550,000. Single-family authorizations in May were at a rate of

438,000; this is 9.9 percent (±2.1%) below the revised April figure of 486,000.

Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of

117,000 in May.

HOUSING STARTS

Privately-owned housing starts in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate

of 593,000. This is 10.0 percent (±10.3%)* below the revised April estimate of

659,000, but is 7.8 percent (±9.7%)* above the May 2009 rate of 550,000.

Single-family housing starts in May were at a rate of 468,000; this is 17.2

percent (±7.9%) below the revised April figure of 565,000. The May rate for

units in buildings with five units or more was 112,000.

HOUSING COMPLETIONS

Privately-owned housing completions in May were at a seasonally adjusted

annual rate of 687,000. This is 7.4 percent (±9.7%)* below the revised April

estimate of 742,000 and is 15.4 percent (±13.2%) below the May 2009 rate of

812,000. Single-family housing completions in May were at a rate of 507,000;

this is 7.8 percent (±9.5%)* below the revised April rate of 550,000. The May

rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 175,000.

A bit to chew on, for sure... Next we move on to PPI

seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This

decline followed a 0.1-percent decrease in April and a 0.7-percent increase in

March. At the earlier stages of processing, prices received by producers of

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intermediate goods advanced 0.4 percent and the crude goods index fell 2.8

percent. On an unadjusted basis, prices for finished goods rose 5.3 percent for

the 12 months ended May 2010. This was the second consecutive month of

slowing year-over-year advances after a 6.0-percent increase for the 12 months

ended March 2010.

The worrisome note here is that Crude Goods were down 2.8% for the month, which a

Industrial production and factory utilization will pop about 15 minutes before the open...I

will try to remember to post the update...

For whatever reason, I awoke this morning ready to solve many of mankind's most

perplexing problems. While such an inclination would bar me from a career in politics, law,

pharmaceutical outfits, the military, and so forth, it nevertheless seems like the right thing to

do.

on the surface to defy mere chance.

Which gets me to my first pair of solutions. I'd suggest that there are certain kinds of

industrial sites where the workers do not undergo serious background checks to the degree

which might be required if these same people were to be, for example, fire control personnel

on nuclear-armed military craft, or flying jumbo jets around. So step one would be

background checks for people in refineries, oil platforms and hazardous materials operations.

Beyond oil marshals on platforms and in plants, background checks including quarterly

financial statements for operating personnel would make sense. Wonder how many BP

employees, officers, directors, and contractors dumped stock ahead of April 20th? Gotta

think AG Eric Holder's team will be asking the same thing.

Let's say that a corporation has a board of directors which was in place when bribes were

paid overseas in violation of US law, or who were in their lofty stations when a company

was deliberately profiting by misrepresenting products in, oh, collateralized debt paper, just

for example.

whole executive level of such firms, two layers deep be barred for five-years in cases of

massive public misfeasance.

Besides creating huge turnover in some of the world's largest 'investment' (which I think of

as 'ripoff') banks, the technique would go a long ways toward restoring public confidence in

government's ability to operate as advertised.

Instead of 'no fly' lists, I propose: "No investment banking" lists, and "no corporate

directorship" lists. And for the money guys: "No stock trading" lists.

Just to keep everything on the up & up.

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ludicrous, since the world is headed for oil-induced disaster anyway. On the other side of the

As the evidence grows that the BP disaster was a deliberate event - and one which will have

continue to offer the simple solution for humans who wish to avoid impacts: Move above 40

degrees North or below 40 degrees South, and stay away from the Northeast since a good

part of global warming is caused by hot air in the Washington area.

current disaster is it was a feeble-minded attempt to bait and switch which didn't fly, at least

around here.

Next thing you know, we'll be using assault victims to pitch healthcare insurance...same kind

of link-think...

That makes as much sense as walking into a Texas watering hole and announcing "I'm a

I expect in either case, the audience around at the time would not be surprised.

See how easy it is to get public participation in local park maintenance?

world press very well since the 'Irish slot' has been filled.

passports: Move follows alleged Irish passport misuse in killing of Hamas official in

As a now over-60 male, I can tell you first-hand that a midlife crisis is expensive: A divorce

about 20-odd years back reset my financial net worth to zero in my 40's, and making it back

has been a challenge. Then there have been the ebb and flow of hobbies tugging on the

wallet as well. Boats, fast cars, faster women, and various exploits....yeah, I think I did up

my midlife crisis just peachy.

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I'm reminded of the bumper sticker one of the Shilshole Liveaboard sailing community

members had on his car - he was a game designer in real life:

"I spent all my money on sailing, wine, women and song. The rest I wasted."

What's sad is there seems to be so little time in life between sorting out hormone-change

induced craziness of 'midlife' (for either sex, BTW - midlife crisis may just be the male

version of PMS way I've got it figured) and the onset of obvious aging.

I used to think my teenage years were my best: Life was new back then - everything fresh

and exciting. But then I came to like the twenties: Professional accomplishments had started

to pile up. But then the thirties weren't bad, being a father and such. The pain of divorce in

the 40's was replaced by the midlife...which was a blast, but here lately, I've started to think

the best of all years were since 50 when I finally settled down a bit.

Makes you wonder what you'll think about the 60's when you hit 70, the 70's when you hit

80....

With any luck we'll still both be around then with enough functioning brain cells to

remember the previous 10-years.

The most interesting change though has to do with effort: When I was young, it seemed

seems to sort of flow.

Not sure what the phenomena is, but it's almost like a part of aging seems to be an increasing

ability to accomplish much with little effort. Maybe that's why gardens of folks over 50-60

often seem so much more fruitful. Or maybe it's just that as we age, we just stop noticing

work so much.

Definitely something to ponder.

==== snip and save section ====

recently. One is the correlation between gout and mental acuity, while the other is the

hiccups.

Since I tend to always err on the side of caution, let me give you the usual disclaimer here:

This is NOT medical advice and if you think you have a real health issue, talk to a real

medical professional. Don't try this at home, not to be used without parental consent, your

mileage may vary, operators are standing by. call now, lines are open, this is a free call.

(Whew!)

My observation about a link between mental acuity and gout first: I happened to be thinking

back on columns written over the past month, or so, and noticed that even by my own

standards of pun-laced, slapstick journalism, a few of the recent columns were pretty good -

They also happened before my goat-kner-twist setting off gout a week ago. Since then,

writing at times through the blue fog of pain at the height of gout, I noticed that there was a

little less humor, and almost an overdose of cynicism.

It was while reflecting on this change in style that I developed my first crackpot medical idea

attack, there is a small, but in my case noticeable improvement in mental function, which

once gout arrives and treatment is started, quickly enough reverses.

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Underlying my crackpot theory is the suspicion that there is a very low-level link between

system uric acid levels and the ease with which certain neuron-firing patterns happen in the

brain.

It was almost as though a higher level of uric acid, up to, just just short of the levels where

the uric acid crystals precipitate, which causes physical pain, there is some low-level serum

level of uric acid function that makes thinking clearer, or less clear. At the upper subcritical

boundary (say, this is sounding medical, isn't it?) mental acuity seems to improve, while at

the lower end (as in post gout treatment) acuity is OK, but nothing to write home about.

Since we are 73% water (or higher, depending on who you quote and if you're cursed with

have a good connection with how our brains function.

The art of 'self medicine' is a time-honored tradition in my family, and I remember whenever

I was going to take a big test, Pappy always recommended a cup of fresh coffee and a steak

& eggs breakfast, light on the carbohydrates.

His theory was that it was brain serotonin levels which keep the brain sharp, but now that

I've had a half-century plus a decade in this bag-o-bones, I'm wondering whether it was the

serotonin uptake channel, or whether it was the serum uric acid levels changing which might

This link between (serotonin levels, or serum uric acid) may account for different religions

having various dietary rules; maybe when a person goes vegetarian, for example, they can

get used to a much lower level of some brain chemical, or other, and through mental focus of

some kind, achieve some kind of different level of mental acuity.

But that was my first wild-eyed medical idea to pass along: Find me the serum electrolyte

term vegetarian habits who are on the personal enlightenment path, and then mix me up a

state of enlighten after a properly laced cheeseburger.

---

The second observation came about hiccups, which I got last night, for no particular reason.

There I was hiccupping like crazy and I made this most incredible discovery which I know

something we have in our otherwise well-stock medicine chest; from Wikipedia:

Haloperidol (Haldol, an anti-psychotic and sedative), metoclopramide (Reglan, a

gastrointestinal stimulant), and chlorpromazine (Thorazine, an anti-psychotic

with strong sedative effects) are used in cases of intractable hiccups. In severe or

resistant cases, baclofen, an anti-spasmodic, is sometimes required to suppress

hiccups.

saliva release, so next time to get hiccups, you might try that approach: Eat (or drink)

involved (sugar, vinegar, or water) so much as it may be something saliva-connected.

Let us know?

Personal self-medicine is an interesting field and one not often practiced.

Yet it's really a quite rewarding field to tinker with, a kind of first level of Citizen Science.

Speaking of which...

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earthquakes and solar flares. While a few scientists have written in trying to debunk theory,

those with an open mind are finding what seems to be a statistical correlation:

Hey George, you're always so fascinated about sun activity and earthquake

correlations, so I made a nice diagram for you. It's all on your interpretation but

there really seems to be a correlation in some way.

Btw, thank you very much for your daily report!

The reader attached this most informative chart which lines up earthquakes (blue top axis,

through the same period:

whether historical research would firm up the data any. A good place to start might be to

A good starting list of historical solar events may be found in James Marusek's 2007

paper "Solar Storm Threat Analysis" and then go off searching for temporally adjacent

correlated quakes.

Papers are due Friday before class. Pass-fail, yada, yada, yada...

has not been universal. Take this email from a reader:

"I have been a reader of your free website for quite awhile now and need some

clarifications on the 8's. I wrote down 3 figure 8's in a triangle and put the paper

in my wallet on 6-9-2010 at 8:49 am, making sure that the 1st 8 is always on

top. Since then, I have had an outflow of over $500.00. I am doing something

wrong? "

by burning it (under safe conditions, parents observing, and such) and then try a single 8.

Still, plenty of positives - like this guy:

"I just put a "8" in my wallet a couple of days ago, and I went online to reconcile

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my bank statement, and my federal tax return had been direct deposited with

$850 more than I had figured when I filed. "What the thinker thinks, the prover

proves". Thanks for helping to pass the good vibes."

If you're a real sharing & caring reader, how about sending $500 of that to reader #1? Just

thinking....

But now we get a little closer to the woo-woo:

"Hi George,

For the previous 2 years or so, my alarm clock steadily gained minutes without me

changing anything (I don't even use the alarm part), so I got used to mentally

calculating the 'real' time if I awoke and looked at the clock and knew I was always

within a half hour of being correct. I went through several/many full cycles of the 12

hour cycles and always figured the mental calculation necessary was good for the

aging brain.

Then, 4 or 5 months ago, the clock started keeping time again. I can't remember

when, so can't go back and track anything astrological/environmental/technical etc.

At the same time, hyperchronism and discussions and input came about so I decided

that when my alarm clock started trekking ahead again, I'd make a daily note of it.

Well, nothing came of it for months.

Then, last week, I woke up one morning and my alarm clock was a distinct 8

minutes ahead of the previous night's time when I went to bed. I jotted the date

down and the minutes the clocked gained and didn't think anymore about it. Nothing

has happened since then.

Tonight, I was putting some things away in my night table and looked at the jotting

and noticed that on June 8th, my alarm clock leapt forward 8 minutes, yet hasn't

gone beyond that since. In the meantime, I put the number 8 in my two wallets and

haven't lost/been charged any money, yet I haven't won the lottery either (but then

again, I don't buy tickets).

I'm rich, I just don't have lots of money. :-)

Easy solution for Mr. Science!

Put your alarm clock in your wallet.

Next?

"Hi George,

I hand-wrote an 8 on a piece of paper and put it in my wallet last Wednesday.

My company's employee stock purchase plan rocks. We are locked into a purchase

price for 2 YEARS, with our last price having been set in January 2009. Our

purchase price was set at $3.92 and the current stock price (while down

considerably since May 6th) is at $38.31 as we speak. Every 6 months, we have

open enrollment where we designate what percentage of our income that we want to

contribute, maxing out at 15%. I enrolled at 15% during our last period, but there

was a problem with the website and my contribution change was not saved. Luckily

I had printed a receipt of the transaction. I contacted our accounting department, and

we played email/phone tag for a couple of months. They weren't offering any

information in the email phone tag exchange, and I was getting worried that they

couldn't do anything about it. I set up an appointment to talk with the accounting

manager for last Friday. We chatted for a bit and then got down to the topic at hand.

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I said "I'm hoping you can help me" and she said "I think we can". All I have to do

is write a check before the end of June and they will make the stock purchase the

first week in July. I will own the shares outright and can sell them that day. I was

ECSTATIC !!!!

I plan to sell as soon as it settles, and assuming things don't fall apart before then,

stand to make a significant return on my 15% investment. This 2 year period

continues through 2010, but the 2nd half of the year has me concerned. Glad I'll be

able to take some money off the table in July.

As an aid to your readers, I made a page of business card sized triangularly arranged

8's and have attached it as a .pdf for you if you would like to share it.

especially cash, and mail it to us.

We'll...er...test the evidence at local stores and shops and report back....

"Is the word gullible in the dictionary?" you're wondering?

WaPo online this morning.

There...did I tell you it's all about 8s and money, or what?

Tuesday June 15, 2010

and go back down to test the 10,000 level before making a gallant run to the upside between

now and options expiration, or maybe even into early next week. This being the expectation,

I already have my sell orders in for today - which since I'm playing one of the inverse ETF's

(a stock that works backwards of the general market; e.g. market going down and they go up)

I expect to hit my sell orders. From there (if everything goes according to plan - which it

never does) I will reenter long positions next week sometime when I expect the market to go

higher, although it seems ready to bounce at the open.

My current thinking is to the 10,350-450 range, and then a big decline toward the end of the

month which oughta to stand everyone's hair on end.

This is not trading advice - just what I plan to do with my own money in my own account:

What you do with your money is your own damn business.

Still, it always pays to look at the 'news flow' which is like a river etching its way through a

---

few more days till the other West Coast ports catch up, but the hints out of the SoCal docks

tend to support some short-term economic recovery. Weakness in here would perhaps be a 1-

week (maybe less) buying opportunity, if you have visions of pattern day-trader status and

making the fast buck.

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For a little more discussion of the 'fast buck' thinking, see today's "Coping" section for an

explanation of what I call Mr. Ure's Idiot-level Charting System...a variation on Elliott

Waves simple enough for use without thinking too much.

position . . . sorting out a reasonable approach toward limiting carbon omissions, and

Limiting carbon emissions? Are you kidding? That was all part of the global warming

crisis...scuttled at Copenhagen on phony data...remember? I'm wondering why we're still

spending big tax bucks promoting carbon solutions when we got maybe 50-200 million

gallons of carbon floating just off New Orleans, for cryin out loud. Why, the thought police

Not to say global warming isn't a problem, but we may not live long enough to see it. Can

we get our priorities right, please? Begging on bended knee here. Maybe a letter would

help...

Dear Mr. Volker:

The real crisis is not 'carbon' or any of the other trumped up diversions in the

headlines, designed to herd the sheep behind this scheme, or that.

Instead, I'd suggest that it is "who's gonna buy the ruined real estate debt

pension fund assets and the beggaring of the Boomers that will surely

accompany it this fall?

think about it: If you owned Gulf coast property and it became oil soaked and

smelling of oil to high heavens, would you pay the mortgage, or would you

throw down the keys and say "Have fun, bank..."?

problems rather than being two years behind?

Louisiana is trying by attempting to fill in barrier islands to create am oil barrier

sulfide levels make coastwise living unhealthy, cancerous, or even immediately

What happens if a million homeowners and condo-dwellers all throw down their

keys in mass 'deeds in lieu of foreclosures' this fall and head north to clear air?

What happens to the underlying securitizations? And what about the banks and

I'll tell you: They decline to near zero. And that collapses the economy.

course.

Maybe though, since you're a former Fed boss, you can explain to people in

Washington that we are in a long-term secular bear market, and that our

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currency was in a heap of trouble already from past excesses and now with mass

real estate declines around the GOM it gets worse than imaginable because of

the financial impacts almost certain to come.

As an aside, you realize I'm sure, that since you left the Fed job in 1987 the US

Dollar has lost 48.3% of its purchasing power due to inflation? The track record

of your successors has been less than admirable. The Fed is still watering down

purchasing power of the dollar which masks the fact that the Dow has been in a

purchasing power parity decline since 2000, but that's another problem. The oil

mess could dwarf even this and in a year.

The main problem I see this fall is oil-induced economic collapse by mid

November as someone's gonna get stuck for the costs shoreside when folks pack

up and leave. I think you're a really bright guy and can see it, too, if you

look...and maybe start working on options to prevent calamity for the Nation.

Thank you in advance.

PS If you're ever in East Texas outback and want a stogie and a glass of Remy

drop by.

it.

UrbanSurvival readership has a much more measured response to all the prime time

shenanigans. Look, here's a reader email that explains why:

"George,

Many have said that the gulf spill will put BP out of business. Let's review how

BP Cayman Islands master owning corporation of all sub corporations

BP England stand alone corporation wholly owned by BP Cayman Islands

BP US stand alone corporation wholly owned by BP Cayman Islands owns gas

station in US no connection with corporate entity that is doing the drilling in the

gulf.

BP US Exploration stand alone corporation wholly owned by BP Cayman Islands

owner of the right to drill in gulf. Rents oil drilling platform from outside

corporation. Owns nothing expect the right to drill. Has borrowed money from

banks and will have to first use the value of the right to drill to pay back bankers

loans before paying for any cleanup or damages claims.

The only corporation that might go bankrupt is BP US Exploration. As it has a

negative net worth I do not see any investor shedding any tears. Nor any victims

getting any money.

Since the supreme court decided corporations were people each corporation named

is a separate person and stands liable all by themselves. All the other persons are

free and clear. They can not be held responsible for the crimes of others."

You know, sad thing about it is the reader may be right. Whether BP is spread into multiple

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doing the so-called grilling.

Too obvious? Not hardly. Haven't seen hardly any discussion of this so far.

promise, with the possible exception of an offshore drilling moratorium."

of the US dollar and oil-indusced Diaspora in the US this fall/winter, seems to be this is just

one more inconvenience, the failure of electrical systems, computational horsepower failing

and so forth.

Near as I can figure it, you want to be in your 'weathering through it' place by mid October

Email:

"Hello from Amazon.com.

We're sorry for the delay in shipping the order you placed on June 02 2010 (Order#

###############. We have good news -- the order is now being shipped! You

should receive a shipping notification shortly, within the next business day, for the

following item(s):

"Microsoft Office 2010 Home & Business (Disc Version)"

The shipping notification will include an updated estimated delivery date and

tracking information if it's available.

Because we were unable to meet our guaranteed delivery date promise, we are

refunding the shipping charges for your entire order. This refund should be

processed within the next few days, and we will send you an e-mail to let you know

when the refund has been completed.

We will make every effort to get the delayed item(s) to you as soon as possible and

we'll send you an e-mail to confirm shipment.

Any other items in your order will not be affected by this delay.

We apologize for the inconvenience caused by this delay.

OK with me...nice to get the free shipping...

A lot of us Libertarian-leaning former republicrats had high hopes that Ron Paul's con Rand

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head...

==== snip and save section ====

A long time ago, I got to looking at charts after reading Bob Prechter's wonderful book

that when a market is heading in a particular direction, the move will come in either 3 steps

or five steps.

The five waves in a particular direction are often called 'impulsive' while counter trend

bounce, another wave down, a bounce, and then a fifth wave down to complete the move.

It I have trouble getting my head on right about such things, I use idiot-level charting, simply

connecting the tops of the peaks of bounces. When the trend line of this market direction is

current example) the 3-month Dow chart, my trend line looks like this:

What this says to me is that the short-term odds are pretty good that the market is completing

the first bounce of a corrective 3-waves up. Wave 1 started from the early June low, broke

come down to around 10,000, and from there we could go as high as 61.8% of the distance

from around 11,200 down to 9,800 in roundest of numbers. The reason is that corrective

like .618 or even fractions like 50%, 75%, 80% and so forth.

Since the market has declined 1,400 points since the recent peak, I would expect to see a

bounce of (round number here) 865 points. Adding 865 to the 9800 Dow low could see a

on the bounce.

These numbers are NOT PRECISE as I am simply illustrating a way to think about the

market.

The main point of this morning is that the bearish trend line has been broken short-term and

rally into options and maybe carrying into next week.

---

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Since waves tend to be fractal (meaning they tend to work regardless of the timeframe you're

That would make the (Bigger) wave 1 down 7,295 points, and if we are in a 50% bounce,

the Dow target would be 11,235 or thereabouts.

Sound familiar?

11,232.54), and so forth.

the target? Nope. 11,205.03 for April 26th.

Again, this is NOT trading advice, but IF I were foolish enough to have an IRA, and lucky

enough to have telephone transfer capabilities, I would sure move to 100% CASH/BONDS

on any rally over the next week or so, since a collapse toward the end of the month does

come into view.

Whether the bounce over the next week or two goes to as little as 10,350, or as much as

10,665 or even higher, when the tide turns again late this month or early next, we could be

starting a downturn that could take the Dow down to the 4,400 level or below.

---

I disagree: I see the stock market for what it is - it does up and I can make money, or it goes

bear market, money's to be made in either case.

larger context, the way to play - at least with my money - will be to 'load the boat' on the

short side in a week or so. if it happens to work out that I make a few dollars, at least you

can see my thinking on the matter.

Remember, this is NOT TRADING ADVICE - JUST MY OWN TRADING PLAN FOR

THE NEXT SHORT WHILE.

Monday June 14, 2010

First thing floating to the top of the reader inbox this morning was this note:

I love your writing... I am a native American with a dual degree in Foreign Policy

and Economics from UCSD.

owned a restaurant during the economic collapse.

bin deaden in Afghanistan.

Hate to start off on a Monday with an "Did we, or did we not fear something like this?" But,

we have long feared that if there was an accurate way to look at Middle East developments,

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it might be summarized this way: A complex game of commercial interests played on under

a public pretext of 'bringing freedom' to regions.

So if I ever get that squinty-eyed look and assert things like "The only reason we went into

Iraq was to keep the Saudi oil prices up and to regulate how fast new production could come

Too long reading behind the headlines and drinking cynicism inducing coffee in the

newsroom.

Why is it that I somehow expect a new 'urge to surge' to ensure 'freedom' of these people?

Couldn't have anything to do with a grim military outlook and a jackpot of precious

minerals, could it?

leaving Afghanistan now!" That's what the Russians thought, too, I'm sure.

The report that the first of the Iranian Gaza aid ships left port Sunday should set a countdown

UN investigations which might be way less friendly.

at the WTOP website.

today.

This being options expiration week, I are sure going to be tempted to buy up a whole pile of

If you believe numbers matter, you'll have plenty to ponder this week as we get

import/export prices tomorrow, then housing starts on Wednesday along with PPI, and then

Thursday the Biggie: CPI.

Just a gut sense of things would be a little rally today, maybe a bit of follow-through, then a

slow decline into options expiration Friday. Boring!

the end of next week, if you're waiting for the next glimpse into the [computed] future.

how the sunspot cycle just ain't right. Worth reading, but only if you're a human living on a

sun-dependent planet, or something...

taught in how many schools around around the country?

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---

Write today's date down on a calendar somewhere and let's see how long old/wrong science

can be taught to young people, shall we?

Just like economics is out of date when learned nowadays because the world doesn't operate

as described, so too, lots of fundamental science is anything but current.

Which gets me to wondering why a forward thinking college system doesn't put all of its

textbooks on Kindles to lower the cost of higher ed? Answer is simple: Since textbooks

have to be rewritten every couple of years, it's been a great cash cow for the tree-cutters and

book publishers.

But wait! What about the consumer? Why not pure electronic content? One book-sized

kindle...

---

By the way - speaking of which - I always like to put a plug in where I can for the MIT Open

There are now 1,900 courses online...just the thing for lifetime learners.

All of which can be taken as an article of faith, since Men are From Mars and they wouldn't

go anywhere without boating, fishing, and sailing, would they?

Tomorrow, the FTC will be holding the last of its hearing on how to 'save journalism' which

is being challenged by the large number of sites on the internet that offer a non-mainstream,

unconventional view of the world which could be disruptive to the PTB, MainStreamMedia,

and old-fashioned cut-down-the-trees newspapering.

help the papers. One way they do this is by leaking stories to newspapers before giving it to

to online media.

Way back in the day of being a serious newsman, a mayoral press aide and I were out for a

beer after work and he told me "I think we'll release this story in the afternoon tomorrow

because that will be on the P.I.'s time." Referring to Seattle's Post Intelligencer. "Then we'll

as to note which stories get released to which paper, so as to have another ,talking point with

editorial boards when endorsement time comes around. Funny thing? This somehow never

gets revealed to the public...

out to all media at the same time. Might seem hokey and all, but to this day, government

agencies at just about all levels are still playing by 'newspaper rules'...

Yep - take this to the bank: The big drivers of editorial board endorsements by major

newspapers is how 'friendly' politicos are in their timing of news events to the paper's

particular publishing schedule and how well they respond to the paper's editorial

suggestions...

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I'll let you know. Hasn't shipped yet, though...

=== snip and save section ===

A story in the Minneapolis Star-Trib last week really deserves some focus because it related

This is also spreading to other states such as Illinois where, says the S-T story "In January, a

judge sentenced a Kenney, Ill., man "to indefinite incarceration" until he came up with $300

toward a lumber yard debt.:

interests - bolstered by a recent US Supreme Court decision which gives supra-human rights

to corporations to spend as much as they please on 'buying government', the parties to the old

social order have been replaced.

between humans and the ruling business-owner class (the PTB). So, whether you're looking

for a change in what drives the US to commit military forces (Hint: Fortune 500-sized

corporate interests) or whether you're trying to find the reason for changes in the use of debt

warrants, the answer seems to be coming around to the same thing: Fortune 500-sized

corporate interests.

What's more, as we see the continuing alignment of corporate interests into government

actions (resulting in corpgov) we are likely to see even heavier-handed laws to quell dissent

and punish those who question the New World Order paradigm.

There was a time when to connect such dots would land one on the radical fringe; yet today

we see the locking people up story, and we read about how Afghanistan (gee, look what we

just discovered...) has huge raw material assets.

The ethical question that arises, when one views the world in this light - namely corporate

versus human rights - is "What's the right course for humans to pursue?"

I'm embarrassed to say that a great, great, great grandfather, Andrew Ure was -- in 1835

England - one of the leading apologists for what was in his day the corporate interests, the

with machines:

lst. They make it possible to fabricate some articles which, but for them, could not

be fabricated at all.

2nd. They enable an operative to turn out a greater quantity of work than he could

before, - time, labour, and quality of work remaining constant.

3rd. They effect a substitution of labour comparatively unskilled, for that which is

more skilled.

Unfortunately, for my great, great, great grandfather, he was living in a period of history

where resource depletion would soon become an issue.

In some ways, the scalping of most of England's trees to feed the fires of commerce might be

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viewed a good thing, since it encouraged innovations in areas alike coal mining. But, what

he missed was that while in the early stages, industrialization may be considered 'good' since

humans move on to other tasks associated with industry - such as mining or building

railroads, there comes a point beyond which the urge to industrialize collapses upon itself.

This point (which we are now nearing, in my estimate), could be considered global supersaturation

of consumer markets. Just as American cigarette companies - driven from the US

by anti-death lawsuits - are now hooking everyone they can in lower knowledge areas of the

world such as Indonesia.

cigarettes a day thanks to "therapy focused on playing", a child welfare official said on

The difference between regular humans and corporations is that corporations have

systematically gone forth conquering humans since they are not accountable to 'society'...a

well-hidden from the eyes of of humans by massive PR Departments that make sure anticorporate

feelings don't emerge.

In the time of the Old Ure, anti-corporate - or more properly anti-automation/ factory owner

class - activities were laid at the feet of Ned Lud...

told by his father, who was a framework-knitter, to 'square his needles'; Lud

after a time, whenever frames were sabotaged, people would jokingly say

By 1812, organized frame-breakers who became known as the Luddites had

begun to use the name King Ludd or Captain Ludd for their mythical leader.

In the time of Lud and Ure (the old one, not me), the face-off between humans and the

hours a day in mills, Lud followers were (on occasion) directly striking back.

As a result, over time, the corporate interests/factory owner class, has become distanced from

local humans. By going first interstate - and then international, they have disappeared into

the smoke of foggy thinking.

I mention these facts because what we are seeing in the case of BP in the Gulf could mark an

important historical turning point in how regular humans deal with corporate interests.

more oil washes ashore, a letter from 54-senators calls for the company to set aside $20-

hide, then humans can still turn on the corporate and seek their due. Of course, it won't be

As the US outrage builds over the summer, and BP predictably tries to cling to its position

power, a showdown with the US could arise over our damage claims against BP.

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The company today will make a decision about whether to pay a Q2 dividend...this against

the growing background of public anger.

We note that action against BP is only coming because the crimes are so obvious, the

complicity of insider investors so clear, and the magnitude of infraction undeniable.

Yet when we return to the toddler who's down to 15-smokes a day, we have to ask a little

broader question, I think: have corporate interests grown so large, and so adept at their

manipulations of power, that they pose a real threat to humans?

Then - by extension - I go on to wonder if any of the people arrested and thrown in jail over

debts think about their relationship to the Corporate States of America, in this larger context?

And if they do, what fraction will see the context with enough definition to formulate

personal plans of action to effect direct change?

As the battle lines harden - they're very soft for now - I can't help but think we'll see more

frustrated humans go off and 'do crazy shit' as the year goes on, rather than organize and

petition to effect peaceful change and the holding of corporations to the same standards of

behavior that are applied to humans.

But until corporations are stripped of their supra-human rights, we humans are on a collision

course with the raw naked power of corpgov. Till then, all a rational human can do is

support non-corporate interests, small-scale and local businesses rather than Big Box stores,

and in every little way you can imagine, vote with your wallet.

I don't think so. Stripped of meaningful representation in Washington (remember the

bailouts?) and moral enough not to take up arms, humans don't have too many options left

except to eschew economic relations with corporate interests which act in anti-human ways.

For the local owners of BP franchises, I'd suggest changing brands and hope people like me

are on the jury should BP survive to claim breach.

it. VWYW.

I'd say my knee - injured in goat misadventures of last week - is a LOT better today. Turns

out that the knee twists triggered a gout attack and now that I'm on my gout meds, things are

actually improving.

As with any cloud, this one may have a silver lining: I've got a new way of figuring out

serious an injury is: By how much weight you lose. I've lost 8-pounds since the incident last

week. Appetite is still missing, too.

Now, I'm trying to figure out how to get FDA approval of a large hammer, which would be

sold as a weight-loss remedy. Hit yourself hard enough with it - on a knee or something -