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Published Monday - Friday about 8 AM Central Time Except Holidays....many major typos are fixed by 8:30 daily
Saturday
July 4, 2009
07:30
AM CDT
This site is supported by subscription to Peoplenomics. For additional content, please subscribe. Content mirrored at my other site: www.independencejournal.com,
Frustrated America - Monetizing Misery As I've written extensively in my lead-in papers to this Second Depression, this one's going to be different than its 1930's prototype. It's going to be longer, worse, and cause more pain and suffering than any that have gone before it. Not that any individual leader in government would will such a thing - in fact, quite the contrary: all give lip service to fighting all enemies, foreign and domestic, but then miss the last point; namely taking a good look at themselves.
In case you've been sleeping, America is going down the crapper by fits and starts due to the fact that America's Framers had in mind the design for an 'independent' kind of America, one where self-sufficiency, freedom, minimal governance, and oh, did I mention the pursuit of happiness? was the goal. --- I've proposed that there are seven major physical support systems which define the physical quality of one's life and that each of these has be undergoing dramatic change over the last year to the point where it's tearing the country apart despite the best intentions of those who would pretend to lead us.
Not like UrbanSurvival or the IndependenceJournal (mirror site) is the only place you'll sense the rage.
Bankster Field Day! This reader email is one of just hundreds I've received over the past couple of months - almost all of them going to the idea that "We're good Constitution-loving Americans and what happened to the Country that we fought and died for? The Framers never had in mind what's going on in the world today - where special interests have made millionaires out of virtually all of our 'leaders' who even have their own retirement and insurance plans - separate and apart from what's good enough for the electorate.
Am I the only one who understands that 'equal protection' under the Constitution is supposed to be more than a catchy positioning statement?
A reader in the Southeast shows his anger at the banksters when he notes (in previous emails) that not only are they trying to restrict credit (and up card rates) to get every last drop of blood from every penny of debt, but that they are right now actively denying credit and loans to what in previous times would have been superb lending opportunities. Read this carefully: The Banksters are restricting credit in order to push the country further into Depression 2...
None! Except I'd offer this as just another example of how the banking industry is causing - deliberately - the worsening crisis. It's all being orchestrated by the PTB to see how much they can get away with this time around. The old Hegelian dialect at work: First you plan your agenda, then you create a crisis, then you force acceptance of your solution. Dress it up as thesis, antithesis, and synthesis and most folks won't get it.
If you have any ideas, please pass them along. This is a fellow who has - as he notes - good credit and a marvelous opportunity to build a new business. But, the long and short of his predicament serves to illustrate that banksters used to beg him to go into debt and today - as they drive the country down Depression road - they won't even give him the time of day without title to his Life's work promised.
Although hopefully I won't need it for a couple of years, this weekend's Peoplenomics report (out Sunday afternoon) spells out my answer: Each of us developing a Personal Constitution since the one that was provided by the Framers is being shredded in Washington.
Bucked: As In Rhymes with... My guess that hyperinflation is the way out of the collapse of America come into clearer focus this morning as Bloomberg reports that "India joins Russia, China in Questioning U.S. Dollar."
Journalistic Prowess Reader spied...
Up, down, and nowhere...all at the same time, huh? Works for us...
Palin Rambles Out I watched the resignation video of Alaska's governor Palin and after listening to it, what I walked away with was a sense of confusion. Wonder how many cups of coffee she had? A high speed flurry of...uh....disconnected phrases.
If she were going to run for president, why not say so?
Ever go to a conference room meeting and see a colleague caught completely unprepared? And to make matters worse they don't have the nerve to say "Not ready" and let it go? Instead they go off into gibberish -- which can be mighty entertaining, but it doesn't move the ball? That's the Palin...er...'speech'.
I'll just put this down as another one of the predictive linguistics "strange disappearances" for the summer.
Will she and her family just 'disappear' off the public screen, or will she run for president? Keep your eye on the greedy old party - a hint would be if they ask for their wardrobe back.
Terrible Tuesday or Interbabble? (Definition) Interbabble: n. (also v. as in 'interbabbling") Stories on the 'net which are endlessly frightening and entertaining, but which never work out but serve to waste your time when you should really be focuses on much more important, longer-term actions to improve your future...
Besides anger at the current state of affairs in America, a large collection of emails that can be lumped under the heading "Watch out for July 7th" have been landing in my inbox. Here's a typical story that gets pinned along with the email: "Crop circle depicts solar eruptions hitting Earth of July 7th."
This 7/7 date has been recycled on the net innumerbabble (sic) times - so much so that a reader writes:
Whoever is flying those little 'orbs' around that make crop circles seems to be playing the 7/7 meme, too, at least ifs you buy the headline that "Crop Circle depicts solar eruptions hitting Earth on July 7th". Looks more like fallout in 8-lunar months, but that's just my take on it.
Not to blow all this off as interbabble, but I won't be hiding under the bed Tuesday...
If you really want something to worry about, pick a year like 2036...
Now, that's a worry worth worrying on. If the earthquakes don't get us first....mind you.
Unstoppable WHO says that swine flu is 'unstoppable' according to a BBC report.
Call me a latter day Luddite, but you know, with intercontinental air travel comes what? (Diseases, you ninny! Such as swine/novel/hybrid flu, all of which pale in comparison to the most dangerous disease of all: globalism.)
---Snip and save section --
Coping: Take Your Beatings Like a Prince... Independence? For whom? A bit of history and a fine idea for America:
Know what we need in Washington? How's about "Jack The Whipper?"
Around the Ranch: Weld, Weld Now Along with finishing up a lot of smaller projects around the ranch on Friday, I took a little time to whack off a couple of sections of pipe and some rebar (5/8th's & 3/8th's) and welded up some tripod umbrella holders which should shade my hammock on my new deck I was telling you about a while back...Tell me if this doesn't look like pure Americana, huh?
Not sure which of the umbrella tripods looks best...the one which has the supports at the top of the pipe, or the one with the support a couple of inches down. Whatever. I intend having at least one glass of ice water in this lash-up today. --- A sincere thank you to the 2-million Americans who are still at war, not to mention the police, fire, and medical crews that keep 300-million people safe on major holidays. Safe -- that is -- from everything but Congress, fireworks accidents, and sunburns. Oh, and ourselves.
--- Send comments to george@ure.net --- The UrbanSurvival Mall: Marching to the Wall Have a blindfold and cigarette handy? The next year or so will see lots of people and entities being 'marched to the wall'. (Thanks; gotta light?). Our biggest problem is who to march out first, but that easily solved thanks to a source of mine that keeps track of the Gnomes of Greenwich who have California lined up to march out next. California defaults, the Gnomes make billions, and guess who is left behind to mourn? Then shortly thereafter will come 'small investors' who can see the wall, but can't break out of the lock-step march towards it, either... Ten-hut! Forward march! More For Subscribers Subscription Information
MyGroPonics My commodity broker JB Slear has nailed a great solution for people who living in apartments and condos who want to become at least partially self-reliant when it comes to raising food: An ultra-high efficiency micro-hydroponics system using readily available local parts. 25-pages and plenty of pictures to turn you into a farmer no matter where you live (Great if you have back problems, too...)...or if you just want to fill up the back yard with MyGroPonics trees and feed the neighborhood... $10 bucks here...
Maxa-Cookie Manager Maxa-Tools has provided us with a free demo - which you're welcome to try - of their dandy cookie manager tool that I use here on all my computers. It shows both the browser-specific and the newer browser-independent cookies. Quite happy with it.
Here's the download link for the free demo:
www.urbansurvival.com/setupMCMstdGU.exe
Once you try it out, click the upgrade button (!) on the upper right hand side for the $35 unlock to get it to remove even those pesky 'non-browser specific' cookies. Bonus: You computer may run faster. I took over 1,000 cookies off my son's machine that he swore was clean. It ran much faster.
Attn: Mac Drivers: MCM does support the Safari Browser, but that does not mean it is compatible with Mac OS. Maxa-Tools only support the Windows world.
Help US Go Viral UrbanSurvival has a dandy growth rate, but sadly, it's nothing like swine (hybrid) flu's growth rate. However, if you'd like to sicken the PowersThatBe, just click here for a tool that may help. (It'll pop up an email window if you use Outlook (or a few other email programs) then simply send a link to everyone on your distro list...
"Live on $10,000" Updated What? You haven't ordered the ebook "How to Live on $10,000 a year -- or less"? Suit yourself. We're all going to live it shortly, anyway. I just thought you might like a heads up by reading about how to do it before you get pink-slipped. But, suit yourself OR visit www.liveontenthousand.com or, click one of the following button:
Yep - still possible. I also took a bit of additional material that was pertinent from recent issues of Peoplenomics and included them. The whole thing runs about 65 pages, but it gives you a vision of how to not only live on the aforementioned dollar amount, but also how to migrate up the economic foodchain if you make a little more than that and do some active savings... Click here for the page with more details on it. ---- Last week's report is here. For back issues of this site, click here. (Goes back to 1997!)
Friday July 3, 2009 Depression 2 Update: Seven More Banks Fail! Oh, the joys of not having to get up with the first ring of the alarm clock! But then, as I laid in bed this morning wondering what to write about, it came to me in a flash: There have been numerous alarming signs and portents in the markets this week, if one knows where to look. --- The FDIC announced seven bank failures after the market closed Thursday, which brings the number of banks closed this year to 52. But, if you count the number of branch offices closed this week it's 30 branches.
But what's even more alarming is that if you look back over the last year of "We're not in a Depression" bank numbers, you'll see that the number of banks closed is nominally up to 75, but if you count up branches, the banking system has shuffled ownership of 2,969 branches.
That FDIC seems to be doing a smooth job of it - making depositors whole in each case (so far), one can't help but wonder what's the cost of all this to be in the longer term, especially since the real guts of the second leg down in financial markets isn't expected till this fall.
When will FDIC have to go looking to recharge its coffers?
Meantime, at least the bad news was released after the markets were closed and has an extra day to contemplate what this all means. Answer to that should be apparent to anyone with half a brain (Depression 2.0 may be real and George may not be so crazy after all...).
If you divide the total offices closed (2,969) by 51 weeks (since July 11, 2008 is the IndyMac failure - 51 weeks back) closings have been averaging 58.21 offices per week, although admitted the data is skewed a bit by the WAMU and Downey Savings failures. Still, the count is the count. ---
Another one of the alarming stories this week to give 'cause to pause' was the NY Fed Funds Rate which, if you look at the June 30th data, had someone paying 7% for overnight funds. The aberration, first caught on Karl Denninger's "Market Ticker" site admittedly does leave one asking plenty of questions (Like: Who'd pay 7% for overnight money in this environment if they didn't have a death-like financial mess to paper over quickly?), one can only pray that it was just someone needing quick cash for the end of Q2. The worst fear is that this is all a set up for the next collapse of the derivatives bubble which will be easily apparent as the Dow goes toward new lows in September, which is what I fear. Not to mention the possible banking and market holidays which could accompany that.
Make a note to self: Finish spreading money around to 'safe' places. A bit more in the Treasury TIPS paper, a bit less in the Big National Bank - going instead to a couple of local banks which have weathered at least one Depression previously. --- A third area where alarming developments are taking place is well-described under the headline "Financial lobby gears up for effort against Obama plan." While it's true that the Obama administration is trying to build a credible "Consumer Financial Protection Agency", it's more than equally true that the banksters are going to roll out all the big guns and pull out the stops since if this one goes through. it could have a Kondratieff cycle-long impact on the bankster coup - which means it could actually save America from financial interest/bankster domination for another 50-years. Why, who'd want to be shackled with interest rate caps and such when desperation of common folks can be turned into optimized yields on past-due accounts?
You won't read much about this fight in the MainStreamMedia, however, since the banksters have brought most of the corpgov/ MSM media to heel by simple manipulation ad budgets: "Ya'll either toe the line, or mother banker will slash advertising on your radio/tv/newspaper chain to zip and then where will you be? Need to roll over a credit line to keep your LBO roll-up together? Lay off on the coverage of interest rate caps, then..." Or some variant of this. never 'spoken", but that's how the complex system works when you step back from it a ways.
Ah, the joys of having the best 'democratic republic' money can buy.
Related? "Washington Post cancels lobbyist event amid uproar." You tell me. I've filed it under "Cookie jars and fingers." --- But there's another point of alarm, right there. Groups like "www.firecongress.org" are popping up and they make it pretty clear that the world "revolution" which I've mentioned prominently ove rthe past year or so are starting to filter into the active area of language.
By the way, don't forget to check out their poster - which you can print off on a good quality color printer and pass around:
Ballots beat bullets any old time. --- Along about here, you may be figuring out that the reason the market dropped 223 points in Thursday's trading is that it's occurred to more people than just yours truly that there is not much stimulating going on from the over-hyped and over-sold 'stimulus' bill.
Well, duh.
Nassim Taleb - who wrote the famous book on statistical outlier
events The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
Nice thought, that. But, in case you haven't noticed, at the current 'burn rate' the only possible outcome for the economy is to have runaway inflation, which is fine from the standpoint of the powers-that-be, since the people who were marginally ready to lose their homes, are in many cases already in default and the homes owned by the bankster class, so when prices start to go wild, they ought to sell like hotcakes and new and much higher rates since the public will be retrained into the borrow and refi industries, which will be retooled to maximize profits once again.
Graceful, ain't it?
Dollars Away! It should come as no surprise later this year when the rest of the world (ROW) decides it has had enough and finally throws the dollar under the bus over the following year or two. On course it will results in Weimar or Zimbabwe-like hyperinflation here inside the US as other countries devalue, but it's not like the signs weren't there and warnings offered.
Take, for example this weekend's headline that "China's Zeng urges more oversight of Reserve-Currency nations". That'd be like us.
Like I said, it isn't like there haven't been warnings from the ROW.
Self-Inflicted Dollar Death Of course, all the warnings from the Chinese (and others) about the dangers of watering down our US Dollar's purchasing power is bound to continue, since as the UK Guardian headlined this week "Banks of the US government."
Mighty depressing thought, since it was supposed to be 'owned' by "We the People..." Not to mention that little sleight of hand on this holiday weekend, of all of them...
GM's Garage Sale Want to pick up a huge parking lot, or a golf course? Might get on the distro list for GM's upcoming sales.
Missiles Away Four short-range rockets, to be a little more precise and all coming from North Korea. Testing, testing...
Stop that Reiki Work Seems the Vatican is trying to get Reiki use under control, says a NY Times piece.
Around the Ranch: Post-It Note Friday Should mention that when the new version of Maxa-Tools comes out - the version which will take care not only of the browser-independent cookies, but also those crafty 1-byte tracking graphics, that it will be a free upgrade to existing Maxa-Tools Cookie Manager users. The note from the cookie fighters:
Done! Oh boy! --- The Truly Mail product I told you about may not run yet on Mac's doing an imitation of Windows... they are working on those kind of issues... --- "The Great American Bubble Machine" by Matt Taibbi in Rolling Stone is worth a read - and yeah have forgotten to mention it for almost a week when it came out earlier.
Thursday July 2, 2009 "The Recovery" and Other Tall Tales The US jobs report came out a few minutes ago, but before we delve into the 'offishul' report and details thereof, some appropriate 'contexting' seems in order before the first cuppa Joe kicks in. Remember: The jobs report is 'just a number' and, as such, is bound to be somewhat 'noisy'. It's for this reason that a sane person looks at broader statistical data than these 'single points of light" (or darkness) when trying to make what former Fed deity Sir Alan called "judgments" about the economy.
For example, yesterday's report on the S&P/Case-Schiller housing numbers is a fine example because we're able to look at how far down housing equity has come since its statistical high in July of 2006. Home equity is down almost a third in that time. --- One of a 'conspiratorial bent' could come up with a very interesting question about here, as a friend of mine asked me late Wednesday: "Don'tcha think it's kind of strange that so many Americans are first going to be forced out of their homes by declining home values, just before hyperinflation that would have (otherwise) made it possible for them to pay off their homes for pennies on the dollar when it comes along next year?"
Yeah....very much coincidental I'm sure, I told her, as I applied another set of ViceGrips to my left arm, since pinching myself in today's economic climate has become a full-time job with an increasing amount of overtime, of late. --- Similarly, while the Obama administration has been heard whistling in the graveyard about the chances of the national unemployment rate going over 10% before 'recovery' sets it, the MainStreamMedia (MSM) has give scant coverage to the Metropolitan Area Employment report released by the Labor Department on Tuesday. Care to guess why?
Mine guess is simple: It plain old sucks, especially this part:
So now, back to the broader context of this morning's report. In advance of it, we saw that unemployment in the Euro zone has just hit a 10-year high this morning, so don't be surprised by today's data from the Labor Department:
You may wish to pinch yourself here, since there seems to be little connection between economic reality on Main Street and political expediency in Washington where most of the recent 'stimulus' spending won't even kick in for months. But that's because the democons and the republicorps want to pull out all the stops to ensure that some air of optimism can be pumped & pimped just ahead of the 2010 CONgressional elections. But I digress; back to the fine points of the unemployment report where my favorite pair of numbers must be considered.
The first is Table A-12 U-6, where in the "Alternative Measures of Labor Under-utilization" section we can see what the more 'real' unemployment number is - this is the PhD's flipping burgers and former IT Directors working as Census takers type people: That's pegged at 16.5%, up another tenth of a percent for the month.
The other part of this morning's Tall Tale that most people don't get to is the CES Birth/Death Model. This number is where some statistical 'mighty tall' estimating goes on, trying to guesstimate how many jobs were created that government didn't actually count, but knew must be there by statistical inference.
If you click over here (link) you'll see the job creation in June was 220,000 and we're led to believe that 77,000 of these jobs were created in leisure and hospitality. If that doesn't have you chocking on your coffee, consider that since the first of the year the CES model says more than 110,000 jobs have been (statistically) created in construction. Cool numbers, huh? Net year to date job creation in the CES model is 338,000, but more like 694,000 created if you back out the January drop of 356,000 in the model. ---- Mainstream economists (you know, the guys who have been so spectacularly wrong so far?) might correctly argue from their thought-constrained perspective that none of this really makes the case I've been arguing since 2000 - that America is really in a second economic Depression and whether we label it Depression 2.0, The Greater Depression, or something else that will emerge next year isn't the point.
What matters is that my view keeps being reinforced by inconvenient truth which continues to leak out and suggest that fleeing paper assets and buying tangibles hasn't been a bad strategy so far, and that further, when the next leg down for the economy becomes publicly visible late next month, it will again be too late to move assets around and batten down for the Bank and Trading holidays of the fall which keep popping up in the predictive linguistics work.
If there was one 'investment' I'd recommend to people of any income level right now, it would not be gold or silver (although you can imagine how they will do in the hyperinflation to come!). It would simply be enough cash-on-hand to keep your household with basics like water & power, and lay in a six months supply of food, if you don't already operate the rolling-inventory supplies.
When oil gets up to the
hundreds of dollars per barrel, the dollar has collapsed, goods
from overseas have dried up, and troops back from 'the wars'
will be protecting banks and supermarkets, a little hedging
against that kind of world seems a reasonable 'insurance bet'
particularly if you've studied the often recommended Reinventing Collapse: The Soviet Example and American Prospects
Granted, we may not go down either path, but given the likelihood of higher taxes and government spending levels that will be 'required' to eventually pull the country out of its depreciated condition in a couple of years, buying creature comforts (like food) now and learning how to grow more, is the be-all, end-all of no brainers. --- My friend Robin Landry whose outlook I share with you now and then, and who is another student of longwave economics, often reminds me that "What flips a good-sized recession over into a full-on depression is drought. Which brings me to an even more important 'big picture' story than even this morning's 'jobs report.'
I talked to some friends in agriculture around the country on Wednesday and several things popped out of the conversation as big Red Flags that we should all be building contingency plans around:
This has me thinking back to the Dust Bowl of the 1930's Depression:
Something to watch, since the prairie grass - and pretty much everything else - is shriveling up in much of Texas and Oklahoma.
On the other side of the weather, several community supported agriculture operations in the Northeast have been sending out notices that tomatoes and potatoes are at high risk from blight this year. One headline "Blight outbreak threatens Jersey tomatoes" is reinforced by another that "Late Blight - The Irish Potato Famine Fungus - Is Attacking Northeast Gardens And Farms Now."
Yet more reports that cause worry? Wells drying up...or reports of flows dropping - are starting to pop up in netversations. And parched south/west Texas, "More communities impost mandatory water use restrictions".
No doubt, the drought will be taken by global warming promoters as further 'evidence' that global warming is a peril to humanity (like politicians are not?) and they'll put on a fresh stampede to tax farm animals in the mistaken belief that taxing cow methane emissions to hire more government workers is somehow an answer.
The bottom line comes down to the obvious: America has gotten too big for its resources, along with the rest of the world, yet we're stuck in a death-dance of advertising inspired excessive consumption which is required to sustain a failing globalist business model. But those who would point the obvious must be either silenced or marginalized.
And those of us who are - and have already undertaken the personal transition to a different kind of life are investing in a few sacks of grain, a few acres of land, a few rounds, and a few books; not to mention soar panels since "You'll pay more for Power, study stays." Of gee, who would have thought? --- But don't let me get you down. And try not to think through the implications of the White House 'pre-screening" questions for the Obama administration "Town Hall" meetings. Ah, such choreography of the MSM...despite the efforts of a few to open questions up to more than whatever screeners pick. --- There's an important dynamic at work in America right now - and it deserves, I think, some careful consideration as you head off for your Long Weekend whatever...best explained by using an analogy from medicine.
We begin with a description of how "shock" works. Medically speaking, it comes in four stages and we're going through the socioeconomic equivalent of it right now.
On this last point, seems we get to that part in 2010...but those details will be in next predictive linguistics run from www.halfpasthuman.com due out about July 20th, or so.
Meantime, Cliff and I are tentatively scheduled to be on CoastToCoastAM with George Noory the night of July 21/22 to talk about the road ahead.
Just guessing here, but we probably will have plenty to talk about.
Wars and Rumors "Report: North Korea test fires two missiles" says a CNN blurb. US Marines deploying to Afsmackistan. ( --- Got a better name for the world's biggest heroin producer? Maybe Afgassistan for those pipeline routes?
Under Pressure Find myself humming the David Bowie tune to this development: The Obama administration is trying to pressure the new government in Honduras to bring back their old presidente. Which Honduras so far has declined. So next the "US suspends military relations with Honduras." -- As I've been saying: No oil, no poppy fields, and only bananas and coffee? War down there doesn't pencil out, especially since the US travel budget is being eaten alive my CONgresspersons who are gallivanting around at 10 times former rates. Power from the People! That's right...not to the people anymore.... --- Wonder how many of those congressional overseas trips were a cover for safe haven offshore bug out locations to insulate them from the socioeconomic turmoil ahead...oh, let's not go there, shall we?
--- snip and save section ---
Coping: What's Write, Doc? Reader sent in this:
Hmmm... good point. My doc's note says:
So there are two ideas you may wish to consider. But the reader's right - what would be the 'right' words? Submissions are welcome. --- Of course all this mandatory vaccination stuff has caused me to open a larger "sticking it to us" file...and say, here's a good email about one fellow's experiences up in the Pacific Northwest:
All of which gets me around to this note from a pharmacist who wanders by here now and then...
Yup, got our 1,000 IU bottles of D3 ready and a take a little sun every day - easy enough to do in near drought conditions.
Ure Who? Another interesting email:
Yep. The Ure family was rumored at one point to be a sort of Scottish equivalent to the Don Corleone's of Sicily, if you follow my drift. Penchant for Scotch and running guns in the lowland, stories have it. And, since there weren't enough jobs in UK government to be had, a fair number were simply exported to Oz as criminals, while others went voluntarily.
A few ended up in the Dakotas and from there a branch moved to the PNW, while another 'division' headed to Utah and from there down to Phoenix.
Most families have pretty interesting backgrounds when you get into some basic genealogy study - a worthwhile pursuit and it actually has helped me understand my kid's behavior better, LOL. I figure at least some human behaviors are hard-coded in our DNA firmware. --- I'd love to read Charles' sailing exploits - will go snoop around Amazon for it - thanks.
Wednesday July 1, 2009 Home - Not So Sweet - Home A reality check about the economy seems in order here. The headline that "Home prices post 18.1 percent annual drop in April" got me to looking at the S&P/Case-Shiller Report (you'll need Excel to get at this) in a little more depth.
A couple of really happy places pop out of their data. Seems that in Denver, house prices are down only 4.92%, Dallas is down only 4.98% and Boston's only down 7.71%.
But the screaming (don't jump out the window here) places include drops of 35.26% in Phoenix, 32.18% in Las Vegas, 27.27% in the Miami area, while what's left of Motown was down another 25.43%.
Sometimes I curse Excel for making bad news reporting so easy. Sorry 'bout that. But it gets even worse.
The data in their spreadsheet goes back a fair distance and looks to have peaked in July 2006 (cell W238 if you're following along here).
Since then the biggest losers have been Phoenix where homes are have lost 54% of their value, down 52.1% in Vegas, Miami homes are down more than 47% while Motown's down only 43.2. Searching for Nirvana? Try Dallas down only 9% from the peak. I'd give you Houston, too, but it's not in the sample. Nationally, though, down 32.5% since the peak.
Next time you hear someone tell you that a home is the 'best investment you'll ever make' - kick 'em or at least point them in the direction of the good work of S&P/Case-Schiller for putting the numbers together. They're a whole helluva lot more believable than numbers out of 'gummint' lately. --- Construction spending figures are due out this morning. About 47-cents if my calculations are right.
Not to Be a Bear, But... (Damn fine pun, that, huh? Or are you still asleep....)
A buddy who's a serious trader in EU Land caught this in the latest from Comstock Partners: "From this point we will see either continued recession or a recovery so weak it will still seem like recession."
How about that? Someone besides yours truly is skeptical. They have a solid take on things here and it's updated on Thursdays. Try to overlook that more and more places are sounding Urban-like in their open skepticism of 'the paradigm'.
Although it's a bit rickety, our time machine does allow us to groc the future now and then better'n most.
Markets The market (as I expected) began the week higher, then turned lower yesterday mostly on that bummer of a consumer confidence report.
If you understand fractals here, let me point out out what's going on:
The decline from October of 2007 until March of this year was one leg down, and we are in two up, and then we get into three down shortly this fall till next spring then a bounce a bit at some point in 2010.
The market this week from the Monday high to the Tuesday low was also a downer, then a bounce should pop this morning, then another down when numbers hit tomorrow and then maybe up next week.
Now THE BIG SECRET. The market is inscribing a whole sequence of what I call "Memorial W's" Got it? You remember "W" right?
Now We Can Leave Department "Iraq approves BP oil deal, rejects other bids." Of course, we all know this war was never about oil and the temporal association between oil deals and withdrawals of forces from cities is purely coincidental - you do understand that, right?
Here's another glass of fluoride-laced water and some Prozac. No connection at all, right?
More water and drugs? Speaking of water....
MSM's (Mis)Adventures on the High Seas Answer me this: How is it that the MainStreamMedia can report every course change of a North Korean 'suspect vessel' yet the stories about how Israel's naval blockade of Gazan's food aid gets about zip in the way of coverage by the MSM? Agendas, agendas....tisk, tisk. Paul Craig Roberts' article "Pirates of the Mediterranean" seems to be on point though... --- BTW: We're still on for Israel bombing Iran in late October, though, right?
Why I don't Write Comedy Headlines like "Jackson body going to Neverland" has me itching to write "It'll meet the economy, which left for Neverland a couple of years ago when the Bushies were still in office..." But I won't, since it wouldn't be tasteful and I have to look at the Man in the Mirror...
Reason #2 "What to do with out wayward Governor" on the SC Now web site about the recent adventures of the miss(tress)ing guv has me wondering if the waterworks machines that put fluoride in SC's water could maybe be converted to inject something more useful...like an anaphrodisiac? If you missed Organic Chemistry, that's the opposite of an aphrodisiac. (I remember Anna...just said No!) [rimshot and groans from the audience]
Reason #3 With Al Franken now officially the Senator for Minnesota, I wonder if the other guy will have to hand over back pay or something? File under Franken'sTime politics.
Reason #4 Russia's banning of all gambling and shuttering of casino's has me wondering just how far they will go. Sounds like they're going through the modern analog to prohibition, except since no one wants to quite the hard stuck, they'll just quit gambling? Help me here...Besides, wouldn't a ban on gambling mean shutting down their stock exchange, too? Let's be real here...
Fluage A couple of days back, the woman with flu-like symptoms reporting she had been offered a flu shot by her doc brought a detailed and interesting note from our consulting microbiologist:
And I am seriously allergic to dogs....or is that the plan?
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Coping: The Breakthrough Software Department Although I've intended for UrbanSurvival (and it's mirror site & blog) to be mainly focused on how Depression 2.0 is rolling out - and has been since the internet bubble started to collapse in the late spring of 2000, it seems here lately that I've been getting the opportunity to be 'first in the world' to get onboard with cool new software.
Started a month, or so, back when the folks at Maxa-Tools gave me the world-wide rollout of the new Maxa-Tools Cookie Manager, which can be downloaded here: www.urbansurvival.com/setupMCMstdGU.exe The rave reviews from Windows users have been piling in ever since - most people find their computers run faster because they're able to clean out in some cases thousands of cookies of the browser non-specific type that clearing your browser cache doesn't get at. The Flash super-cookies and such, too.
Now I've heard from Maxa that a new and even further improved version should be ready shortly and it's one that will address one of the sneakiest bits of spyware ever. It's call the 'one byte' tracker.
Here's how it works: Suppose you go to a site and load up a page and let's suppose that the site has no apparent tracking cookie associated with it. Can you still be tracked? Why of course! All the page that you've surfed to has to do is have a '1-byte' image source from some add tracking site embedded into the (for now) seemingly 'clean page'.
Follow this: You load the page you thought was 'clean'. On that page is an external imgage_source call that points to some ad-tracker's site for the image_source call, and when your computer's browser goes over to that site to pull down the image which was called, the image_source server snags your IP address and you're now on yet another list.
Sneaky bastards, huh? Well, no worries, Maxa's next version of Cookie Manager will track those small-byte hidden graphics calls, too.
Am I looking forward to it? Oh, hell yeah! --- Then there's the matter of email and spam and such. Here's another break-through product which I haven't seen much about anywhere else...so read this carefully:
There are a few limitations - like only be able to send 10 MB per day - I hope they have an upgrade path for folks like me who send lots of attachments to clients and such, and no, I haven't had time to see if it has a 'mail router' in it to where I can set up 'rules' so that email sorts itself into what gets down in what order...but those are nits, right? It's a great combined feature set that seems to get around some of the issues with email...so give it a try and let me know what you think?
Replies and comments on both Maxa-Tools Cookie Manager (MCM) and TrulyMail will be forward to the development teams...and you and I will be asking "How come the Big Outfits" haven't taken care of these issues? Easily answered, my friend.
Repeat after me here: "Follow the money..."
Tags, Weather, and Friends Went down to the former Chrysler dealership Tuesday for the annual safety inspection sticker - no emissions check, just the basics out here in the East Texas outback: Brakes work? Lights? Tires looking like racing slicks yet? That kind of thing. As expected, no problems, except that the sun baked wiper blades could stand replacement - no problem and $20 to have it handled on the spot. --- A lot of people would probably have driven up to the AutoZone or O'Reilly's store up town, and maybe saved $6-bucks by doing it themselves, but in George Land, a half hour to 45-minutes has time value, since I live Life like a foot-race with the Grim Reaper - the essence of a Type A personality. --- Between the head of the service operation and the head of sales, it was concluded that one, getting ten drops of rain while driving to work from over near the Trinity River, has 11-more drops than the other.
Weather doesn't mean much to folks who live the box life: Live in a box, get in a box to get to the office-in--box, and then inhabit a cubicle once there. For some reason, I've always found myself when possible living in 'weather's important' environments. Living on a sailboat, where it's a quarter-mile walk up the dock for a shower if you don't want too much mold growing aboard in the winter, or out here goat ranching, guess what's important?
People in Big Cities are thus out of touch - in many ways - with what's really going on a bit nearer the earth.
It's this time of year that I keep an ear really close to the ground about weather and farmerly talk. heard Tuesday, from another friend who keeps tabs on about 17,000 dairy cattle up in the square states, that dairymen are only getting about 10 per hundred weight when break-even is up around 18/hundredweight. Which means dairymen might be moving toward reducing their 'fleet size' by 400-thousand head nationally. A drop in exports to places like Europe seems to figure into it, best they can figure.
If the Drought (see the weekly drought monitor map updated Thursday here), keeps up through the summer and there's some fleet...I mean herd-size reductions in dairy, then along about late fall or early winter, food prices ought to be going up - a far bit at that.
Adding to that, of course, will be oil which continues to firm in price - up to $71 this morning as fresh attacks have taken place in Nigeria.
Lemme put that MBA to work: Hmmm...drought +reducing herds + high input costs for fuel - and by extension, fertilizer - and what happens to prices?
I called my commodities broker (JB) and told him to shop a few March 2010 lottery tickets for me.
"Lottery tickets? I didn't know commodity brokers sold lottery tickets?" you're wondering about here.
Yep. That's what I call grain (commodity) call options. $500 out of the money call options when you have a gut feeling that prices will be going up a fair piece over the next year. Add in the 'stimulus' and you might - this is not a recommendation, mind you - have some fun. --- Made another decision while visiting the former Chrysler dealership: Noticed that they charge $70 an hour for shop time and I still have putting the new radiator in the old Daewoo, where Elaine tried to put a coyote or wolf through it on the way back from Dallas, couple of weeks back. Just haven't had time to get to that part of my list since that part of my list doesn't work once the temp is above 80, or so.
Decided to let them do it...since they can do the change-out for an hour and a half of shop time, whereas I could piddle away most of the day and they have a few tools which I don't; namely the car lift and so on. Don't mind an oil change, or tinkering on the red car, but putting in a radiator verges on real work. I'll bring them the car and parts, and go about the rest of my list. --- Also heard that the surviving dealerships that were not on the 'cut list' have blanketed former customers of this particular dealership with all kinds of promotions and ads aimed at cutting off their shop business, leaving the cut dealership in the . The joys of predatory capitalism, huh? So I'll have them do the radiator change-out...keeps the money in the neighborhood, anyway.
Speaking of Tune-Ups One of the items that actually got done yesterday was re-linking the old (by several years mostly) content of the Exurban Living section of www.independencejournal.com. If you go there now, down this link, you'll find a number of oldies but good's including Oilman2's "What If?" series. Along with our 2002 adventure of buying this place in the outback sight-unseen over the internet. I've always had a wild-eyed gambler streak. --- While we were watching the deer ramble through the yard last evening (looking for more tomatoes, I assumed) Elaine mentioned that one of the downsides of 30-acres is that you can end up with so much 'stuff' that it can become overwhelming. Which indeed it can.
She even mentioned that one of the nice things about living on a sailboat was that there was a place for everything and everything was in its place. I mentioned the Seasteading Institute's ideas and suggested returning to a 60-foot sailboat is always an option.
While she's promised to think about it, seems more'n likely it's just from the weather being too hot. Come fall and something less than a cross between blast furnace and sauna outside, and she'll come back to her senses.. Still, a large sailboat again...ah. But the reality is those get too cold instead of too hot. So, what's a fellow to do?
Web Bot Project Reader is asking:
Nope. Not shut down. It changed form, since doing the week-after-week high immediacy values got to be a complete and utter bummer for Cliff. It's now issued every once-in-a-while and is only $10-bucks at www.halfpasthuman.com. More than worth it.
Thought everyone knew the 'rickety time machine' wasn't going to weekly reports and would be more like semi-monthly, or so. Maybe there are people who's caffeine uptake is lower than ours, though...
Curious Email Have to admit it, this one has me stumped:
How do you inspect a chimney with a pellet gun? America wants to know!
Tuesday June 30, 2009 Wall Week, Day Two The headline in the LA Times this morning that "States brace for shutdowns" not only covers the financial pain and agony ongoing in the Golden State but mentions the debilitating coming run on state bonds and such is spreading to other places, too. Indiana and Colorado, just for instance.
Of course, California is now trying to get vendors to accept their IOU's. All of which might work if it weren't for the fact that the vendors who take the IOU's can't just turn around and give IOU's to workers because Safeway and Vaughn's won't likely accept small business IOU's for basics of life like food. Moreover, I'm not aware of any mortgage companies that will take IOU's, although there's a glimmer of hope with all these car companies that are offering to make payments for workers for a while should they lose their jobs and not be able to keep up the payments on their cars.
Which is nice, since those cars are becoming home for many Americans.
Make a note: If you're thinking about buying a vehicle, rethink the family van since they offer more potential living space.
Contractions "U.K. First-Quarter GDP Drops 2.4%, Most Since 1958" says a Bloomberg report this morning. That's why around here, I refer to the U.K. as "Yuck!" Which Zeus the Cat meows is diss respectful. --- Let me put on my quack medicine outfit and pronounce to my attending colleagues: "Nothing to worry about, just a few contractions, common when giving birth to a Depression...I say we administer a financial epidural, what say?" (Injections of printing ink follow.) --- I see where Massachusetts is still feeling the pain. All the more case for epidurals, since liquor taxes are going up.
Troops Exit Four killed in the exit from occupied cities in Iraq.
But since war is so profitable, we see that a Suicide bomber strikes at Afghan-Pakistan border and Pakistan militants have abandoned a peace pact.
Keep them Lords of War flying...
The Oily Truth Leak A couple of people told me I was all wrong in my speculation yesterday that former vice Dick Cheney was talking about throwing away 'American sacrifice' in Iraq must mean the oil deals aren't secured.
But what's this? Old George is right again with headlines crossing this morning that "Iraqi oil licensing round runs into trouble as foreign firms eye bigger cash rewards..."
Well, gee, gosh-golly, who would have guessed, huh? You ever wonder if we wouldn't have pulled out of Vietnam sooner if seismic studies had been more accurate early on? I'm just wondering, here...
Another Crash This time it was 153 souls aboard an A310-300 that crashed on landing in the Comoros archipelago. Went into the sea instead. -- Old airline saying 'crashes come in threes' has me bound to walking and driving anywhere for a while.
Market Numbers The Consumer Confidence and Purchasing Manager Index are both due out this morning. And, as I expected, the week got off to a good start yesterday with a 91-point pop up on the Dow. As for a decline later in the week, that will depend on numbers like the June unemployment rate due out Thursday since no one (except fire, police, medical staff, security outfits, yada yada) will be working Friday.
Come to think of it, expect short columns on Friday and Saturday morning this week. I don't get paid by the word...
Bernie to the Max Judging by the reports, the reports that "Bernie Madoff gets maximum 150-years in prison" is being touted as "sending a strong message" to people who might consider following in this $50-billion dollar path.
Sure does, alright: Don't get caught.
Gotta Get One Department Toyota and Aston Martin are coming out with a new ride. For $32K you get Toyota engineering and Aston Martin trimmings. Two feet shorter than a Mini, I don't know why they didn't call it an Aston Micro, but maybe that's why I don't do car branding. "The iQ city car"? Okaaaay.... almost too small for serious cruising for a James Blonde, though...
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Coping: Monetizing Failure - Fire Everyone! The way I've got it figured, the most supportive thing a small business person can do is fire everyone who works for them. Do it first thing this morning.
"You nuts, Ure?" you could be thinking about now. Well, perhaps, maybe even certainly, but follow my logic which started off with this Jim Dandy email from a reader that gets us to the kind of Economics Lessons that no one bothers teaching (let alone discussing in a meaningful way) in the MainStreamMedia (MSM):
Yeah, you'd think so. But that's because you don't understand how much work goes in to monetizing failure in America!
Lookie here: The greatest things about America is that because of how corporate/government (corpgov) cannibalism works, even failure has been monetized. I mean besides how certain Gnomes of Greenwich are going to make vaster fortunes in their CDS flim-flams when California is bankrupted. Consider how monetizing failure applies to the typical small businessman:
See what a great country we have put together and how efficiently "the system" works? Jobs for everyone, even if you're firing people. Why, if you're a small businessman, with say five employees, you should really fire all five right away, first thing this morning.
That way, you can really help the social agenda because you'll be making more jobs for the consultants, state workers, HR attorneys, CPA's, bankruptcy lawyers, bankruptcy court folks, state and local social services workers, green pool cleaners, health departments, cops, jail personnel, rehab people (you'll get there, just give it time). Oh, and did I mention the 'education system' and financial aid folks? It's just "Glorious! Gimme a Hallelujah!" brother.
Tah-dah! Fire everybody!
Create jobs for more people! Support the new Amerika! (See how graceful this transition to raw socialism is going?) You know America is on her last legs when we monetize failure. But dang, don't let that outta the bag. Why, that'd make you a terrorist, wouldn't it? --- Not the kind of thing people like to think about, but when the 'overhead' load on the middle class becomes unbearable, there's only two ways to go: Become a crook - life a phat life of billions and then at age 71 - if you're caught - and how many haven't been? - you get a nice government housing deal with health care, three squares and TV in the day room. Don't even have to hire a security service to watch your place - even that's provided!
Or, you can work your ass off, eventually succumb to the pressure on small business to fail, and end up at the other end of the economic spectrum. But gosh, with any luck, maybe you could be Bernie's cell mate. You might learn a thing or two. Only takes a laser printer and a little creativbity, wink-wink, nudge-nudge.
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We'll tolerate no bawling. As long as there are sheep, this is a Land of Sheer Elegance.
The Quest for Reasonableness There's a major sea-state change going on in America right now; subtle but important when considered at its full breadth. I speak of the changing relationship between us (humans/citizens) and non-us that 'issues law'. A couple of things in the past 24-hours have brought this up to the front burner for contemplation over the second cup of coffee:
I called the Texas Health Department yesterday to ask a simple question: As an adult (or so I allege, LOL) is there some specific law on the books in Texas that would allow for a private citizen to be forced to take an undesired vaccination?
The first couple of folks I talked to didn't know the answer, but after a couple of hops through the phone-maze, I left a woman for a more senior person. When she called back an hour or two later, we had a fine discussion and much of my worry was laid to rest. There is, she assured me, nothing on the books now that would allow 'the government' to go door-to-door requiring vaccination of an adult.
My concern and inquiry was based on scary reports around the net that go to the idea of people being 'rounded up and herded into 'isolation camps' if they refuse some undefined injection at some point in the future. "For adults, it's a personal decision," I was assured.
That said, there are vaccination laws for children in school and for mandatory vaccinations for health care professionals for such things as meningitis and Hep A, and a whole slew of others. My EMT son in the Northwest was telling me recently about his vaccination list and frankly, sounded like he had more vaccinations than fishermen put on a steelhead punch card (most seasons).
My reason for inquiry - besides the fright-stories about the net - was heightened when I read how not only might flu vaccines be made in egg embryos (which I have some allergies to, along with a host of preservatives) but now I'm reading how Novartis is planning to cook up vaccines in dog kidneys - something that's also a concern since I am highly allergic (got a 2-dose EpiPen, and 75 mg to diphenhydramine hydrochloride to IV drip me with ready?) to certain kinds of dogs.
All of which relieved some of my anxiety (accentuated by my usual self-medicating with several cups of high mountain grown caffeine, LOL), except that there's a big "if" out there.
That Texas is a 'personal choice state", if it only so for now. What concerns me down the timeline a bit is that come this fall the central government may decide to overrule states of most anything they feel like, since the moment is...how should I say? ...opportune?... because so many states are being marched up to the Wall financially. California comes to mind, but that's a whole other story.
I'm not the only one thinking this stuff through, making a few calls, and getting the 'facts' ahead of time. Here's a typical reader note on flu:
While the Texas Health folks seem pretty reasonable, I can't help but wonder about the folks at CDC. Although the WHO has this novel/swine/hybrid flu listed as a pandemic, the folks at CDC are only updating the state case counts once a week - for reasons unknown. If you suspect budget, pr decision, or just too much work, one of those might be right.
Globally, the WHO case count is now at 70,893 this morning - 6/10th's of a death per thousand. That will no doubt come up a fair bit when (linguistically) the novel/swine/hybrid comes back for 'Round Two' this fall, but for now, seems that a letter from my doctor and a filled prescription or Tamiflu (a last resort to my way of thinking) is about all the preps that need doing, except maybe for finishing up that 3,000 word article on the mechanics of cytokine storming (the actual death mechanism in many novel flu cases) which I promised for a medical friend's journal...just more time on research needed for that.
Not to put too much emphasis on it, but the time of action and planning is, as I learned from living on my sailboat for 10+ years, before 'the storm' -- not during.
Happy (?) TD F 90-22.1 Day Second item in my 'quest for reasonableness Monday' adventures: The phone happened to ring mid-afternoon and it was a reader in Prague (Czech Republic) calling to ask me what I thought of TD F 90-221 Day - which is today.
"Er...ah...fine occasion for a party..." I offered, not knowing whether a TDF90-22.1 should be petted or blasted with a shotgun, should a whatever a TD F 22.1 ever show up at the door.
"Well, as far as I can tell, it's only a means to get people to self-incriminate - and here I am trying to get ready for a trip to Shanghai and I have to get this stupid form done before I can travel..."
What ensued was a discussion of just what a TD F 90-22.1 for is. Here's a hint for you:
A click on the graphic should bring you to the online form over at the IRS web site.
Long and short of it: If you have more than $10-large ($10,000 if you don't know anyone under 40) in an offshore account, you might wish to consider whether to file this form - which according to the instructions:
Is the form reasonable? I get into sometimes heated discussions with people I know who have offshore accounts - many with more than just a few bucks in them - because my view is pretty simple: If you're an America, you pay taxes like the rest of us at the same rate or renounce your citizenship. All pretty simple. While I'm somewhat sympathetic to the claim that Americans living abroad are sometimes subject to 'double taxation', I'm much less open to the argument that "I'm a sovereign individual and should be able to have my money grow untaxed in an offshore tax haven if I choose to. If you're a sovereign what are you doing in my country? Go find yourself a sovereign rock and get UN recognition. Then I might buy it - hell, I might even move there.
Say, I understand Iraq is moving toward sovereignty...But, seriously - or mostly so - in the meantime...
Far as I'm concerned, all wire transfers into, or out of, the United States should be subject to a 15% income tax holdback to level up the playing field. This would also take some of the bloom off the rose for the "Gnomes of Greenwich" who profess poverty and slime under tax laws because wire transfers worldwide from overseas shell trusts is pretty much still the wild west, as anyone who has traced narco-dollars around knows. That would clean up the war on drugs in the same stroke.
Anyway, form's due today and if you're worried about double taxation issues, do like I did when I was living offshore about 25-years ago: Hiring a competent accounting firm to do the filings The Miami office of these guys. Worth the effort. And they will remind you on forms like TD F 22-1...
Monday June 29, 2009 Lingo Lango Department The 'Summer of Hell' Gets Rolling Now Lemme see here, how is that 'summer of hell' meme working out? I mean assuming you're not in Iran, sneaking a read of this infidel rag while being hunted by "The Butcher" because you got 'twitted' into attending a demonstration/confrontation with the existing power structure there.
Please note, linguistically that in the West, the Iranian situation is described as a 'protest' as in "Security forces attack Iran protesters." On the other hand, in the JPost this morning we see the headline that "Khatami calls for harsh punishment of riot leaders".
Seems to me if I were spinning in favor of something, I'd call Iranian participants 'protesters'. Neutrality might warrant calling their actions 'rioting' awhile outright opposition might use a term like 'revolutionaries' and 'attempted coup leaders'. See how easy it is to read this stuff? Wonder why the MSM (MainStreamMedia) doesn't have the goanies to mention this, at least now and then? ---- I see this morning where Time Magazine is reporting on "The Honduran Coup: How should the U.S. Respond?"
Let me help, if I may. I can squeeze a three-minute strategic consultation in this morning, if anyone at State is interested...
First, a check of the CIA World Fact Book, the indispensible source for responsible capitalists like me:
Next we summarize: poor country based on bananas and coffee plus "maquila" (sweat shops for Nortes would be closer, but not PC to the democons).
Nope, nothing there worth invading over, so pocket the purple finger plans and stick to jaw-boning and let's keep our focus on countries which are either key pipeline routes with drugs galore r massive oil deposits. The banksters will end up with Honduras in time, and we'll set off an engineered bio bomb down the road a bit to thin down the herd there. If you live in Honduras, might want to keep your distance from hogs and hens the rest of the year, just to be safe.
Think I'm kidding? --- Some 'riot-lite' activity in India this morning over power and water woes. --- Riots in Israel over the Sabbath opening of a parking lot. --- Prison riot injures 7 at Pelican Bay State Prison in northern California. --- --- Markets likely to open higher, end lower this week - that according to my blindfolded dart throw of the week. Data coming could be a bumming. Not only that but it's also....
California to the Wall Week Lots more to discuss in today's "Coping" section (below) but here's a perfect example of how the Federal government is participating in the screwing of California.
Headline: "Air Force tests fires missile from Calif coast."
Perfect example of how fast federal money is leaving the state - which wouldn't have a budget crisis if 100-cents of federal tax money came back to jobs and services within the Golden State. But no, only 94-cents on the dollar. Compared with many more republicorp suck-em-up states getting more than their tribute to Uncle back... Seems like a violation of equal protection to me, but who asked? I know - little early in the week to point to the Constitution and equal protection and all that. Maybe we should revisit that one later.
Howdy Flu-dee With reports out this weekend that the 'swine'/hybrid flu may have already infected over a million, two developments. First, the US case count is at 27,717 building toward some magical number when the flu makers...I mean vaccine makers...will twist the arms of folks in power to demand mandatory vaccinations, which in turn, will have negative consequences (linguistically late fall maybe into winter), but it will be important because it will give a reason to clamp down on us rabble-writers in the population for 'our own good'. Yeah, sure, you bet'cha. -- Yes, I read about the "Journalist Files Charges against WHO and UN for Bioterrorism and Intent to Commit Mass Murder" No, they won't dare put that in the MSM. --- I just happen to be allergic to flu vaccines and have a letter from my MD....got yours? May - or may not - be honored, but an ounce of prevention (I like self quarantine and quinine, thanks) is worth ten ML's of "cure".
Good Countries for Investment? Curious article in the "World Time News Report". What they've done is put together a map of the world with countries suffering deepest consequences of the global slowdown show in darker and darker shades of blues (Get it? Slow down, get the blues? LOL) and countries where the depression won't bite - at least as hard.
To my simple-minded way of thinking, the countries less bitten should make better investment speculations...I mean, wouldn't you think? Or, is it too early in the day for that?
Washington Times headlines "EXCLUSIVE: Cheney fears Iraq withdrawal will 'waste' U.S. sacrifices." ---- Translation: oil deals aren't secure yet.
Wonder if they're building gulags in Wyoming yet?
The New Electrics Feeling bright-eyed and bushy-tailed and sharp on math, this morning, are we? Well, if you're interested, a German scientist has posted a complete "Free Energy Documentation" online at Scribd (link here).
Once you sort through "Conversion of the Vacuum-energy of electromagnet zero point oscillations into Classical Mechanical Energy" (3 Excedrin worth of reading) ya'll just build up the whole thing on a levitating platform and come on by to take us for a spin...we'll go up north and show it off to the time monks, while we're at it.
Liars Poke Here Some intelligent musings on the 60-Minutes piece about a new kind of lie detector that seems to evolve from marrying an MRI of brain activity with questions and some massive computational horsepower. A sort of super-collider of lie detectors.
Not going to be on the shelf down at the local precinct any time soon, since MRI machines aren't down to pocket-sized yet. Besides, where we really need this technology is Washington, and you know it'd be banned there.
For our own good, of course.
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Coping: "Correct George" Weekend & "Beat the Reaper" Occasionally, like all publications of more than a few words in length - and in particular, if a site has a little original content - which seems few do on the 'net, I'm bound to get a thing or two wrong, here or there.
For instance, when I mentioned the Reconstructed M-3 over at Trader Bart's site, where you can find that stat which was conveniently thrown under the train by the Fed which really knew all this was coming about three years ago, I improperly attributed it to John Williams of Shadow Stats. Nope; dumb George got it wrong: M3 Reconstructed is Bart's original work (and damn fine, I'd add). Running 16.3-16.4% annualized when I squint just so. No wonder the Fed pushed it under the train... --- Then there was Peoplenomics this weekend wherein where my 'source' of the revelations about how some of the 'Gnomes of Greenwich, Connected-Up' are likely to cut a fat hog when California defaults, called to point out that in my example it's not 1,000 people who have to buy the insurance (CDS's) - only 100. Sorry, that won't make sense unless you read the Peoplenomics example about how in the derivatives world, people buy 'insurance' on things they have not interest in... --- Someone else called to ask why I had forgotten to change the issue number to 408 and put the right date on both the main report and the accompanying ChartPack.
Details, details, details. --- Sometimes I feel like a cursed man: Given the occasional insight into the Big Picture and then busily setting about trying to fill in the blanks, but swarmed (just as one might be swarmed by Africanized bees of ill temper when messing about on the back 20) with details and minutia. Not that giving credit to Bart is minutia - his hard work deserves recognition and I should slow down sometimes.
But the details...why they are like mosquitoes there are so many of them. "Dad, did you send my check for school yet?" Damn, another detail. Ugly one. --- I live Life for the joy of free exploration of concepts and to piece the Big Puzzle of Life together. But I found myself again this morning reduced to listing out most of every waking second this week in my Outlook calendar. Seems about everything possible this week, from doing the wiring move so the new wall mural/diorama can be installed (followed by the wooden roof) in what we're calling the San Francisco room in the house remodel, to the client projects, to the truck's annual inspection tag...in fact everything down to the sitting time on the porcelain throne has been scheduled. If my eyes look brown by Friday it's because my scheduling efforts have collided with reality. --- Both Cliff at HalfPastHuman and I have been struck this week that 'Universe was just kidding about 'bringing some help along' as a relative of his who was going to be working on his projects won't be able to, and despite Elaine's resigning from a head-hunting search project, it seems like she has no time to provide back-up (or even filing) over here in my office. --- There's a fuzzy 'feel' to modelspace between now and 2013 where the apparent sense of time goes all wonky...things get to feeling like they are speeding up; only to speed up some more. till this 'moving in quicksand' feeling arrives.
The only way I've found to barely keep even is to periodically throw everything into Outlook and then simply click through the list in dogged, determined fashion, paying no mind to whatever new inputs come along that are just screaming for attention.
For example, my commodity broker JB called lat night to tell me "Silver's in fast trading which I haven't seen in a long time...something may be coming up this week...."
"Yeah, yeah, get back to me when it pops over $15..." Didn't mean to sound rude, but 3-minutes per phone call this week, unless you happen to be one of the folks with time blocked out in Outlook. --- Every once in a while I get to thinking to myself "Maybe you're trying to do too much: Write an award winning web site, keep up on the rickety time machine, write a cracker-jack subscriber column, write a novel, reconstruct a house with an almost Disney kind of interior to it, write a novel, build a goat ranch, stay active in ham radio, drill a well (60-' feet down now), keep the truck and two cars in roadable condition...and the to-do list stretches down many feet more.
Then I pause, take another hit of coffee and remember: This is Monday and that's what Mondays are all about: Make the list and plough mindlessly through as much of it as you can, ignoring that any projects on this list this week that you're dumb enough to get done will simply be replaced by more items next week, such that The List is Never-ending.
I think, in the end, that's why people die. They wake up one morning and come to the realization that "OMG: My LIST is longer than ever and I'm 60-something years old! Isn't there some point in here where I get everything done and I can kick back, get high, do creative writing and just stick to my hobbies with no deadlines? A little el Don, or Remy, a cigar, a 14-days cruise with the wife with no phones ringing, a leisurely walk on the beach with no agenda whatsoever, and a chance to just appreciate Universe without nervously looking at the clock?"
Can't speak for you, but there are mornings when I feel like the Grim Reaper's standing just off stage with a stopwatch. running some kind of sick perversion of "Reaper Reality" - and that gets me to wondering if television's inane 'reality shows' aren't just poor imitations of Life and Mr. Sickle.
The word for the feeling of overwhelmed, behind schedule, over-worked, under-staffed, and pushed to (and beyond) your personal limits while strung out on caffeine is Monday. So if you feel like you've been set up as a contestant on a 'reality show', best I can figure is that's really close enough to the truth of the matter.
Wanna make a little side bet bet who gets the most done on their 'list' this week during this latest round of "Beat the Reaper"? On your Lists, get set......
Peoplenomics Feedback See details below, but the revelations this weekend about the gnomes of Greenwich really garnered some darned interesting emails. Like this one for openers:
Say, didn't AIG handle the retirement accounts of Congress? Seems to ring a bell somewhere. No wonder they'd be 'too big to fail', if my recall is right, huh? And another one:
Yeah...my point was that we no longer need an Internet bubble or a Housing Bubble to turn the economy around. instead, we can go right to the loot and pillage stage of government with something near carte blanche because even once rolled and beaten, government will just print up more Band-Aids, LOL. What a glorious scheme, isn't it?
Missing "Dollars"? Seen any 'dollar' stores closing lately?
I understand valium helps...little light blue pills like th....ooops!
Quote for the Week Here's a good one:
But, only as far as he went. There's this Big Quote I carry around in my head (and drag out on overload Mondays like this money):
Till the whole of society breaks out of the 'everything mindset' and focuses on a few quality things in each of our lives, we're all marching to the Wall...got a smoke? There's not enough 'things' in the whole damn Universe to give everybody everything. The simple math just doesn't work out. In everything there aren't two everything's for ev everyone. Simple and obvious, huh?
That we haven't figured that simple truth out is why we're (as the Mogambo says) 'so freaking doomed... Nice to dream about a simpler life, though and why Elaine and I belong now to the Society for Creative Anachronism. Trying to find the New Renaissance...which I reckon you are, too.
Around The Ranch: Here Kitty, Kitty... Neighbor across the road called Sunday with the latest cougar report (No, not the 'party to excess' cougars that (used to?) frequent Pullman, WA). He reported that he found two more prints out by the mailbox, only this time the cougar was headed east. The size of the paw print? Measured 3 3/4" across.
Hmmm...no room for cougar hunting in Outlook this week. Lucky cat...probably doesn't even have an iPhone. Cougars are so damn backwards, aren't they? Just walk around, snag dinner when it runs by, sleep...wonder if cougars experience Mondays?
Before the chart, a little background: Once upon a time, a long while ago, I observed during my quest for 'truth' in economics, that the PowersThatBe, the talking heads on the teeve, and the other information sources that actively engage in the programming of humans not to think, had conveniently swept several trillions of dollars that disappeared in the Internet Bubble's bursting (since spring 2000) under the rug. Surely, it wasn't unnoticed by the thousands of people who called brokers and said "Where is my money?" "Gone, but hang in there as you're a long term investor!" was about all they heard back.
So one of our charts for Peoplenomics subscribers oughta be widely circulated - it shows that if you line up the peak of the Dow in January 2000 with the peak in early September of 1929, we're on a very very close replay track. Much closer than even the chart shows if you were to back out inflation, and put in the effects of 1929 deflation, but that'd be real work, and I'm sort of lazy if the truth be told.
No, it's not a perfect replay of 1929, but history doesn't repeat exactly, it only rhymes. So think of this as the rhymes and the crimes chart:
"George, that's only a coincidence!" your monkey-mind will protest.
Why sure it is...you bet. A 9½ year long coincidence...yessir....just a coincidence, I'm sure...
Write when you get rich,
George Ure, The People's Economist |
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is being 
by Dmitry Orlov, or more recently, Michael Panzner's
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